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Cover 1: Analyzing the Bills’ Athletic Linebackers


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14 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I think Joseph can play snaps in sub-packages as a rookie.  I don't, however, expect him to be another Milano--Milano was a former CB with excellent instincts.  Joseph is an athletic 'backer who lacks great instincts.

 

I do think he could be a valuable sub-package guy though.

 

Might be a Nigel Bradham type

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8 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Much like basketball the NFL is entering into its own small ball era. Defensive linemen are becoming better and better athletes. Linebackers are becoming more like hybrid safeties and safeties and corners are equally as athletic. I think in 5 years you will be seeing Aaron Donald and Ed Oliver be the prototype for DT’s. Sub 300 pound uber quick and uber athletic players. While LB’s will look more and more like strong safeties sub 240 quick and able to cover. 

 

The Bills defense is being adapted to that style and it is good to see the Bills being  a modern team in that sense. I really enjoy seeing them building to where the league is going as opposed to chasing trends 5 years too late

Does anyone else think it's POSSIBLE that McDermott's understanding of what it takes to field an effective, modern NFL defense: speed, instincts, and undersized playmaking...

 

...is actually a VERY convincing argument for building a heavy, mauling o-line and a run-first, play-action offense that exploits the intrinsic weaknesses of such a defense? Is it possible he's building a modern defense AND simultaneously fielding a (less-modern) offense designed to beat it?

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7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Does anyone else think it's POSSIBLE that McDermott's understanding of what it takes to field an effective, modern NFL defense: speed, instincts, and undersized playmaking...

 

...is actually a VERY convincing argument for building a heavy, mauling o-line and a run-first, play-action offense that exploits the intrinsic weaknesses of such a defense? Is it possible he's building a modern defense AND simultaneously fielding a (less-modern) offense designed to beat it?

I think the offensive trend is salary cap driven. The general consensus among coaches is that it is easier to build a strong pass based offense than a strong run based one because it takes fewer top players to make it work. And you need the QB in either case to compete at the top level.

Edited by vincec
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13 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Does anyone else think it's POSSIBLE that McDermott's understanding of what it takes to field an effective, modern NFL defense: speed, instincts, and undersized playmaking...

 

...is actually a VERY convincing argument for building a heavy, mauling o-line and a run-first, play-action offense that exploits the intrinsic weaknesses of such a defense? Is it possible he's building a modern defense AND simultaneously fielding a (less-modern) offense designed to beat it?

 

I disagree that a heavy mauling run first offense is a sustainable approach to winning in the modern NFL. Yes if you have a dominant defense and a stacked O-line you can play that way. However keeping a defense intact is hard to do in the cap era. Typically a defense has a 2-3 year shelf life as a top league unit. Even Seattle's defense which was a lot of young guys drafted together only had a 4-5 year dominant run before falling down to less elite status and those defenses were composed with 3 extraordinary draft classes. 

 

I think in the end you have to build a passing attack long term to sustain success in the NFL. To draw an NBA parallel again, the teams that tried to go big and old school against small ball lineups mostly failed. To argue for a run first offense as a long term strategy will fail. 

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On 5/18/2019 at 12:45 AM, Richard Noggin said:

Does anyone else think it's POSSIBLE that McDermott's understanding of what it takes to field an effective, modern NFL defense: speed, instincts, and undersized playmaking...

 

...is actually a VERY convincing argument for building a heavy, mauling o-line and a run-first, play-action offense that exploits the intrinsic weaknesses of such a defense? Is it possible he's building a modern defense AND simultaneously fielding a (less-modern) offense designed to beat it?

Not a bad analogy.  I think the Bills are definitely looking to get that run game going, but don't over look the potential of a modern style passing attack. Honestly, it's about balance.  You can't run all the time and you can't pass all the time. You have to mix things up. When both the run and pass are clicking, the offense really gets rolling. With Josh Allen's ability to do both pass and run, that dual threat can be hard to handle. Having a mauling OL is great for old school running plays designed to wear a defense down but the real dagger to the heart is a quick strike pass.  As a game moves into the 4th qtr and the defense gets tired, that mauling OL can really shine. So, I agree.....less modern, but not completely without modern concepts. Don't want to get pigeon holed.

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On 5/17/2019 at 3:46 PM, billsfan89 said:

Much like basketball the NFL is entering into its own small ball era. Defensive linemen are becoming better and better athletes. Linebackers are becoming more like hybrid safeties and safeties and corners are equally as athletic. I think in 5 years you will be seeing Aaron Donald and Ed Oliver be the prototype for DT’s. Sub 300 pound uber quick and uber athletic players. While LB’s will look more and more like strong safeties sub 240 quick and able to cover. 

 

The Bills defense is being adapted to that style and it is good to see the Bills being  a modern team in that sense. I really enjoy seeing them building to where the league is going as opposed to chasing trends 5 years too late. 

 

 

I think this is true until a few teams decide that maulers at OL and a heavy dose of the running game gets you some wins.

 

We saw that last year with NE - late in the year and the playoffs it became a run first offense and guys like Aaron Donald were neutralized in the playoffs and Super Bowl.

 

Teams could not stop the run and did not have sub packages that could stop the run - so they had to throw more and more guys at the line of scrimmage- giving Brady one on one looks on the outside and the slot for easy completions.

 

In the past it was run stuffing defenses - with a sub package to go against the pass.

Now it is a smaller/faster defense with an even smaller sub package because the pass is so important.  Therefore there are very few big run stuffers left in the league- especially at LB and it is a trend that will lead back to more rushing by the trend setting teams.

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I think Joseph will be another find like Millano & will complete the LBing corp to give the Bills what McD envisioned it as being & Frazier will implement those players into his system to get the most out of them I just hope being smaller players that they can last the riggers of a NFL season if they are as we have seen as physical & aggressive as they have been .

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On 5/18/2019 at 9:23 AM, Phil The Thrill said:

 

 The Cover 1 crew’s analysis doesn’t hold much weight to me.  Let me know when a real scout breaks down film of the Bills draft picks

Phil, you are certainly no thrill...

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I love having linebackers who can cover and range sideline to sideline. Just have to make sure you have some depth guys who can come in and stop the run, both as linebackers and on the defensive line.

 

Luckily Edmunds is huge AND fast, so he should be a real asset both in the passing and rushing game. Just needs more experience.

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6 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

I think this is true until a few teams decide that maulers at OL and a heavy dose of the running game gets you some wins.

 

We saw that last year with NE - late in the year and the playoffs it became a run first offense and guys like Aaron Donald were neutralized in the playoffs and Super Bowl.

 

Teams could not stop the run and did not have sub packages that could stop the run - so they had to throw more and more guys at the line of scrimmage- giving Brady one on one looks on the outside and the slot for easy completions.

 

In the past it was run stuffing defenses - with a sub package to go against the pass.

Now it is a smaller/faster defense with an even smaller sub package because the pass is so important.  Therefore there are very few big run stuffers left in the league- especially at LB and it is a trend that will lead back to more rushing by the trend setting teams.

 

 

I think you are correct that the running game could be utilized against smaller DT’s however Donald grades out pretty good against the run so it is not like 290ish pound DT’s are going to be ineffective against the run always. Even the Pats threw a lot of short and intermediate passes (what has been a big part of replacing the running game’s useage in modern NFL offenses) in their playoff run as opposed to being a uber run heavy offense. 

 

Brady threw it 44 times in the divisional round against the Chargers and although the Pats ran a lot that mostly came after they were up and salting away the clock. Brady threw it 46 times in the AFC championship game and his passing was much more effective than their ground and pound game (none of their 3 backs average more than 3.9 yards per carry.) 

 

So I don’t forecast the running game making a comeback (Much like old school back to the basket centers never made a comeback in the NBA even though they were facing smaller competition) in the modern NFL at least not in the old school ground and pound sense. I think you will get 2-3 playoff teams each year that will be successful with a great defense and an offense based off of running and avoiding turnovers. But those teams won’t get past the conference championship because some other team will have a QB and more consistent offense to pair with a good defense.

 

Is it possible there will be exceptions? Yes of course but in general teams that have good QB’s on rookie deals and teams with veteran QB’s taking a pay cut will be the consistent Super Bowl contenders. Great defenses like the Broncos in 2015 and the Legion of Boom are hard to sustain past a 2-3 year period, keeping a good O-line and skill positions core around a bad QB while also keeping an elite defense together is hard to do under the cap even if you aren’t paying a QB much. 

 

I could be wrong (I am just some D-bag fan on a forum) but to me the trend to get smaller and more athletic along both sides of the ball is going to continue. The running game will still be a component to NFL offenses esp as running back like Bell, Barkley, and Gurley that are both rushing and passing threats emerge. But I see the running game staying at 30-40% of offensive snaps as opposed to the well above 50% it used to be. Teams used to on average run the ball 50% of the time. Now that average is about 40%. I think it won’t go much below 40% but it won’t ever sniff 50%. 

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