Cover 1: The Path to the #1 Defense

[BillyWhiteShows]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-number-one-defense/

 

 

 

Nothing like great analysis from guys who’ve worked in the NFL....oh wait

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well no, it doesn't indicate that. Defensive rankings are relative to the rest of the league. I don't know if you've noticed but the era of elite shutdown defenses is over. Rule changes and new offensive concepts have made it harder than ever to stop teams from scoring points. You can't compare defenses today to defenses from past decades.

 

 

We aren't that far removed from GREAT Denver and Seattle defenses winning SB's and the most recent SB was a true defensive struggle.  

 

McDermott's Carolina D would have been remembered as a great one had they won that SB as well.

 

I think offense is clearly the better investment............a team built around a stud QB and offense can sustain for a very long time. 

 

But you can still field a great defense by the standards of any era.......it's just that the results are relatively fleeting.

 

And IMO that is because it only takes a weak link or two for a good offense to break down a good defense.

 

On offense a great QB can cover up a lot of weak links.  

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

you don't get it I guess. that's fine. I'm not gonna go much further with it. common sense says that if your team can hold onto the ball for longer amounts of time and more sustained drives then your defense doesn't have to deal with as many possessions. this is really simple.... its not hard man. you just don't wanna acknowledge it.

 

its fine. you've had an odd crusade against the defense for months now. advanced stats like DVOA also rank them high. but its your thing. let'r rip.

Respectfully gotta rebut that with some info. The Bills were actually middle of the pack in terms of T.O.P. The defense was very good, but they absolutely need to improve the pass rush, which is the best way to create turnovers and negative plays in the RZ. The aspects in which the defense wasn't great can't all be attributed to the offense. Oliver will help. If Murphy can stay healthy and Lawson can improve, that'll help. I would personally have no problem trading some relatively big assets for a game changer like Clowney.

 

Get in the QB's mug all day. That's how you stop the top offense's.

[Stank_Nasty]

4 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Nope. If they aren’t top 5 in offensive turnovers then the teams that beat them would have amassed more yardage in scoring all those points.  

 

The turnovers and bad offense artificially kept defensive yards allowed low. 

 

As has been true with all truely good and great defenses, that amount of points you allow dictate how good you actually are. 

I couldn’t disagree more. 

 

Texans game the special teams alone gave the Texans the ball in scoring position twice and I think we held them to 2 fg’s?.... Texans couldn’t move the ball all game and were still getting points. While these weren’t offensive TO’s I think you get the point.

 

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Respectfully gotta rebut that with some info. The Bills were actually middle of the pack in terms of T.O.P. The defense was very good, but they absolutely need to improve the pass rush, which is the best way to create turnovers and negative plays in the RZ. The aspects in which the defense wasn't great can't all be attributed to the offense. Oliver will help. If Murphy can stay healthy and Lawson can improve, that'll help. I would personally have no problem trading some relatively big assets for a game changer like Clowney.

 

Get in the QB's mug all day. That's how you stop the top offense's.

I actually said in my original response to badol that the defense needs to 100% fix the pass rush and that will cure most of its ills. 

 

I thought on average it was a top 8-12 unit on most Sundays. Pass rush makes them a top 5 unit IMO. Oliver could fill 2 needs. Interior push while helping the edge rush because qb’s can’t just step up to evade it

Edited May 10, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

one could easily argue that the excessive turnovers led to the opponent having more chances for more yds..... are we really gonna pretend large amounts of TO's actually HELP the d's yardage totals?

 

Actually, turnovers are one of the things to look at whenever there's a disparity between a defense's rank on points and yards.

And yes, it does help the D's yardage totals while hurting their point totals.  Think about it a bit...if your team's O turns it over a lot while they're inside their own 30,  the other team's offense may only have to drive 20 or 30 yds for the score and is pretty much guaranteed to get 3 points out of the drive. 

 

Bills were 4th highest in the league last year in turnovers per drive, not too good.

Add that to poor special teams play leading to good field position for our opponents which can also cause disproportionate points scored vs yds given up, and yeah, our #2 on yards D was not quite as good as that might make it seem.

 

Anyway, truly great D's are great on both yards and points.  Whenever you see a disparity, look for the reason.

 

 

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Actually, turnovers are one of the things to look at whenever there's a disparity between a defense's rank on points and yards.

And yes, it does help the D's yardage totals while hurting their point totals.  Think about it a bit...if your team's O turns it over a lot while they're inside their own 30,  the other team's offense may only have to drive 20 or 30 yds for the score and is pretty much guaranteed to get 3 points out of the drive. 

 

Bills were 4th highest in the league last year in turnovers per drive, not too good.

Add that to poor special teams play leading to good field position for our opponents which can also cause disproportionate points scored vs yds given up, and yeah, our #2 on yards D was not quite as good as that might make it seem.

 

Anyway, truly great D's are great on both yards and points.  Whenever you see a disparity, look for the reason.

 

 

 

 

I don’t think they were as good as their #2 yardage ranking and I don’t think they were even close to being as bad as their 19th ranked point allowed(it’s 19th right?). 

 

I think they were good d that is a pass rush away from being a consistently top 3-6 unit. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I don’t think they were as good as their #2 yardage ranking and I don’t think they were even close to being as bad as their 19th ranked point allowed(it’s 19th right?). 

I think they were good d that is a pass rush away from being a consistently top 3-6 unit. 

 

Agreed.

 

I think their run D needs work.  We were #16 or so for rush yards given up, which when one considers the shorter field given by poor ST and turnovers, is not too good.  #27 for rushing TDs given up.

 

We were actually #1 for pass yards given up and top-10 for passing TDs, so even without a great pass rush the pass D did OK.

 

[Putin]

7 hours ago, Forward Progress said:

The best way to improve the defense is by keeping the offense on the field.  We've made a lot of improvements on that side of the ball this offseason.

This ^^^^^

Hopefully will see a HUGE improvement on our ST with all the players we’ve singed , that should help both our defense/offense!!!!

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Agreed.

 

I think their run D needs work.  We were #16 or so for rush yards given up, which when one considers the shorter field given by poor ST and turnovers, is not too good.  #27 for rushing TDs given up.

 

We were actually #1 for pass yards given up and top-10 for passing TDs, so even without a great pass rush the pass D did OK.

 

100% needs to smooth some rough edges but I dunno how some are ignoring that their were numerous games that the defense kept them in it for longer than any defense dealing with a bills offense like that usually could. And a couple of games it felt like they outright took over. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

100% needs to smooth some rough edges but I dunno how some are ignoring that their were numerous games that the defense kept them in it for longer than any defense dealing with a bills offense like that usually could. And a couple of games it felt like they outright took over. 

 

Not clear who's ignoring that?

 

The D 100% carried the team much of the season, and yes, they kept the team in many games and limited points through a lot of poor field position and tough breaks.

 

But then there were those blowouts.

 

It was puzzling (and frustrating sometimes).

[LSHMEAB]

12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea.

 

I believe the 2014 defense ranked 4th in YPGA. Compare that to the 2018 Bills defense which ranked 2nd, the 2014 Bills defense was LOADS better than last years and it's not even close IMO.

 

I worry about the rushing defense. They had some absolute stinkers last season, especially down the stretch against Jacksonville and New England.

 

Need Star to do more and Edmunds to improve immensely in stopping the run. He was the biggest reason NE ran up and down the field on us in week 16. 

I agree that the 2014 defense was quite a bit better than the 2018 defense. Where I would slightly disagree is that run defense set the two units apart. The 2014 defense was slightly below average in terms of run defense. Where they distinguished themselves was pass rush from the front four. Dareus, Hughes, and Mario all put up double digit sack totals with Kyle Williams "pulling up the rear" with 5.5. 

 

When you generate that kind of pressure with just the front four, you're gonna create a lot of turnovers and make HOF QB's look bad.(Rodgers) For better or worse, Star is part of the the front four in McD's scheme so I think that puts even more pressure on the players around him to get after it. I feel good about Oliver and Hughes. Unless they make a big move, they're gonna need Shaq or Murphy to emerge in order to truly impose their will on opposing offense's.

[Happy]

I'm not sure how last year's defense was ranked 2nd on any scale; seems a bit optimistic.  I know SpT and the offense sucked, where the defense was put in bad starting field position in punts and kick offs and the offense couldn't stay on the field, rookie 20 year old MLB, etc.   The 2018 defense did a terrible job getting to the QB, as well as stopping the run.  Not indicative of an exceptional defense, some of which falls on the DC.  I question how well Leslie Frazier schemes against opposing offenses, and especially opposing QB's; he is a little too conservative, IMO.  McD probably is, as well, which sets the tone for the defense.

 

In 9 of 16 games played opponents scored at least 21 points on them, which all ended up in losses.  The Texans beat the Bills 20-13 (thanks Peterman), which was the only loss where fewer than 21 points were scored on the Bills.  The most perplexing part is that 4 of the 9 games resulted in not just > 21 points scored against, but the loss was also > 21 points...i.e. blowout.  None of those should have happened.

 

Hopefully with the addition of Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds having more experience at MLB, Josh Allen with more experience at QB, as well as FA and draft reinforcements recently brought in will all make a difference.  It is on McD and his coaching staff to prove they can field a winning team.  The offense will need to score more and stay on the field, which shouldn't be hard compared to last year since the bar is set so low.  I do want to see the defense be more aggressive in getting after the opposing QB and not rely on the backfield to make plays, which isn't the best idea in today's NFL.  I'm concerned that McD and Frazier don't see it this way.  

 

 

[Locomark]

Adding Clowney would make our defense feared if the price didn’t include losing Jerry. The challenge is what does Jerry want as his next deal. We have the money even with Clowney. Not sure if the price is worth next year’s first though. 

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, Locomark said:

Adding Clowney would make our defense feared if the price didn’t include losing Jerry. The challenge is what does Jerry want as his next deal. We have the money even with Clowney. Not sure if the price is worth next year’s first though. 

Next year's first is off the table, imo. There's going to be some great wr talent at the top of the draft. Trade for Clowney would also have to include a plan to sign an extension. Think it's unlikely to happen, but I do think he would flourish here.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Dr. Who