Revisiting the economic predictions from the progressive establishment

[Magox]

I was looking through some of the predictions from the progressive economic darlings right after Trump had won his election and I thought I'd share them with you.    

Right after Trump had won, not sure if you guys remember but the stock market tanked by close to 1000 points in overnight trading and that prompted Krugman, our favorite economist to write a column.

Quote

 

"It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?"

"If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never."

 

“So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.”

 

 

 

Politico came out with an article titled: 

 

Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets, If GOP nominee pulls off a Brexit-like surprise, Wall Street would face a Brexit-like stock plunge.

 

Sounds ominous, lets see what they had to say:

Quote

Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House.

New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8. “Wall Street clearly prefers a Clinton win certainly from the prospective of equity prices,” said Dartmouth College’s Eric Zitzewitz, one of the authors of the new study along with the University of Michigan’s Justin Wolfers. “You saw Clinton win the first debate and her odds jumped and stocks moved right along with it. Should Trump somehow manage to win you could see major Brexit-style selling.”

 

 

 

Quote

 

This also suggests that a shock Trump victory next month could crush stock prices, perhaps by as much as 10 percent, and send the peso and other currencies sharply lower while ushering in a period of intense market volatility as investors try and discern how Trump would govern and whether he would make good on his pledge to start trade wars with Mexico and China and deport 11 million current undocumented immigrants.

“You would see incredible pressure on stock prices if Trump wins and everyone flooding into rare metals like gold and into bonds” in the U.S., Germany and the United Kingdom, said Erik Jones, professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

Jones said the depth of markets for so-called “safe haven” assets could be severely tested should Trump win. “The gold markets are just not deep enough to hold this much scare,” he said.

 

 

So much scare he says.

 

Well, how about from the Editorial Page of the Washington Post.  Those guys are grounded.   Surely they must have had a reasonable take on what a Trump economy could look like, right?   Right?????   

 

Their headline blared:  A President Trump could destroy the world economy  

 

Yikes!   
 

Quote

A 45 percent tariff on China (or any country) imposed as punishment for “manipulating” its currency to the United States’ detriment? That, too, could well be legal, at least temporarily, under any of several statutes whereby Congress has broadly delegated the president power to raise tariffs to meet a national emergency or protect national security. As lawyer-economist Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics has argued, Congress could not stop Mr. Trump without an unlikely veto-proof two-thirds majority; court challenges would take months even in the unlikely event they succeeded. To be sure, Mr. Trump’s team has recently cast his threats as negotiating positions — examples of how he, unlike previous presidents, would play hardball in defense of U.S. workers and businesses. This is hardly reassuring: He seems to have no response prepared for trading partners’ inevitable pushback.

 

U.S. leadership of the global trading system has helped stabilize an area of international life that had bred conflict, even war, for centuries. To abdicate in favor of Mr. Trump’s zero-sum mind-set not only would undo the work of generations and lower the United States’ standing among the nations; it also would license other nations to conduct themselves just as selfishly. The disruption to market confidence could breed economic damage in excess of any transitory benefits. His approach would be a historic error, which, as president, he would be free to commit.

 

 

 

What about Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics.   He's one of the lead advisers of the Obama Stimulus package.  Let's see what he said:

 

Quote

 

If Donald Trump were elected president and put in his stated policies, the United States would experience a lengthy recession, enormous job losses, much higher interest rates and diminished long-term growth prospects. At least, that is the conclusion of economists from Moody’s Analytics, a recent analysis highlighted by Hillary Clinton in a speechTuesday.

 

Prediction 1: Trump’s policies would cause a 1.5 percent contraction in gross domestic product in 2019. 

 

Prediction 2: 

Tax cuts and larger deficits would stimulate at first, then cause a contraction. Mr. Trump has advocated major tax cuts, including reducing the highest income tax rate to 25 percent from 39.6 percent and increasing the standard deduction for all filers. On spending, he has said he would maintain the military, Social Security and Medicare, and raise spending on veterans health care.

These actions would stimulate the economy at first — the Moody’s projection has stronger growth in 2017 in a Trump administration than in a baseline case. But over time they would translate to higher deficits that would push interest rates much higher and crowd out other activity in the economy, given that they forecast the economy will be near its full potential when the next president takes office in January 2017.

 

Prediction 3: 

Moody’s predicts that Trump policies would push 10-year Treasury bond yields to 8.6 percent in 2018, compared with 1.6 percent today and 3 percent in their base case — leading to a contraction in business investment, housing and consumer spending. The money the government would need to borrow to fund a much larger deficit would squeeze out business investment, housing and consumer spending.

 

Prediction 4:

 

Mass deportations would be a negative supply shock. The simple version of this is that if there are fewer workers in the United States because the Trump administration deports millions of undocumented immigrants or makes life unpleasant enough for them that they leave voluntarily, the nations’s economic output would fall.

As immigrants leave, the Moody’s researchers write, employers will struggle to fill the vacated jobs. “Many of these positions will go unfilled, because, by the time the Trump administration is underway, the U.S. is expected to be at full employment, meaning there will be no slack labor out of which to hire workers.” Some businesses that are heavily reliant on immigrant labor would close. To the degree the labor shortage drives up wages, it would be counteracted by Federal Reserve interest rate increases to try to slow the economy and combat inflation.

 

 

Oh hell, you can just read his drivel/study right here.

 

By the way, Mark Zandi has been and is continuing to be quoted by many mainstream outlets such as CNN, NY times, Politico, WAPO etc etc as if he is some neutral arbiter and he continues to downplay the economy.  

 

In any case, I got a chuckle out of these predictions, I knew they would be waaaay off from day one.    Thought I'd share them with you.

 

 

 

 

[RochesterRob]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

I was looking through some of the predictions from the progressive economic darlings right after Trump had won his election and I thought I'd share them with you.    

Right after Trump had won, not sure if you guys remember but the stock market tanked by close to 1000 points in overnight trading and that prompted Krugman, our favorite economist to write a column.

 

 

Politico came out with an article titled: 

 

Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets, If GOP nominee pulls off a Brexit-like surprise, Wall Street would face a Brexit-like stock plunge.

 

Sounds ominous, lets see what they had to say:

 

 

 

So much scare he says.

 

Well, how about from the Editorial Page of the Washington Post.  Those guys are grounded.   Surely they must have had a reasonable take on what a Trump economy could look like, right?   Right?????   

 

Their headline blared:  A President Trump could destroy the world economy  

 

Yikes!   
 

 

 

What about Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics.   He's one of the lead advisers of the Obama Stimulus package.  Let's see what he said:

 

 

Oh hell, you can just read his drivel/study right here.

 

By the way, Mark Zandi has been and is continuing to be quoted by many mainstream outlets such as CNN, NY times, Politico, WAPO etc etc as if he is some neutral arbiter and he continues to downplay the economy.  

 

In any case, I got a chuckle out of these predictions, I knew they would be waaaay off from day one.    Thought I'd share them with you.

 

 

 

 

Krugman has been a Democratic pawn for over 25 years now.

[DC Tom]

1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

Krugman has been a Democratic pawn for over 25 years now.

 

I wish I could mint a cryptocurrency backed by Krugman's utter wrongness. 

 

Anyone have any ideas how to implement IdiotCoin(tm)?

[row_33]

to the media every single time...

 

[Tiberius]

Ha!!! How about the coming hyper inflation!! When is that arriving??? 

[TakeYouToTasker]

1 hour ago, DC Tom said:

 

I wish I could mint a cryptocurrency backed by Krugman's utter wrongness. 

 

Anyone have any ideas how to implement IdiotCoin(tm)?

 

Talk to Mead.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

I was looking through some of the predictions from the progressive economic darlings right after Trump had won his election and I thought I'd share them with you.    

Right after Trump had won, not sure if you guys remember but the stock market tanked by close to 1000 points in overnight trading and that prompted Krugman, our favorite economist to write a column.

 

 

Politico came out with an article titled: 

 

Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets, If GOP nominee pulls off a Brexit-like surprise, Wall Street would face a Brexit-like stock plunge.

 

Sounds ominous, lets see what they had to say:

 

 

 

So much scare he says.

 

Well, how about from the Editorial Page of the Washington Post.  Those guys are grounded.   Surely they must have had a reasonable take on what a Trump economy could look like, right?   Right?????   

 

Their headline blared:  A President Trump could destroy the world economy  

 

Yikes!   
 

 

 

What about Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics.   He's one of the lead advisers of the Obama Stimulus package.  Let's see what he said:

 

 

Oh hell, you can just read his drivel/study right here.

 

By the way, Mark Zandi has been and is continuing to be quoted by many mainstream outlets such as CNN, NY times, Politico, WAPO etc etc as if he is some neutral arbiter and he continues to downplay the economy.  

 

In any case, I got a chuckle out of these predictions, I knew they would be waaaay off from day one.    Thought I'd share them with you.

 

 

 

 

Outstanding post. Thank you. 

[/dev/null]

3 hours ago, DC Tom said:

 

I wish I could mint a cryptocurrency backed by Krugman's utter wrongness. 

 

Anyone have any ideas how to implement IdiotCoin(tm)?

 

1 hour ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

 

Talk to Mead.

 

hahagatorcoin

[B-Man]

[KD in CA]

Just now, B-Man said:

 

Presumably you can mine for those by posting laughable stupid comments in PPP?

[Bray Wyatt]

1 minute ago, B-Man said:

 

This is too perfect, thats exactly how I picture the look on Tibs face when hes posting

[/dev/null]

5 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

This is too perfect, thats exactly how I picture the look on Tibs face when hes posting

 

this is how i picture gator

 

 

and before i put him on ignore, thats the voice in my head when i read his posts

 

Yaaaaay!!

[Bray Wyatt]

1 minute ago, /dev/null said:

 

this is how i picture gator

 

 

That's a picture personifying his intellectual capabilities, the outside looks like the gator who is like "I dont care what they say I know Im right!" 

[Azalin]

2 hours ago, /dev/null said:

 

 

hahagatorcoin

 

Gatorcoin?! What, it has absolutely no worth and insults you as you try to spend it?

[3rdnlng]

29 minutes ago, Azalin said:

 

Gatorcoin?! What, it has absolutely no worth and insults you as you try to spend it?

Dirty money.

[B-Man]

.............Gator's actual picture

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[US Egg]

The Lefts "China Syndrome" tarriff scare tactic will likely be their next hoax to blow up in their face.

 

But, given their unceasing lying chicken little rants, clearly they want the U.S. to falter at any cost.

Edited May 11, 2019 by I am the egg man

[Chef Jim]

FAIL!!!

[Q-baby!]

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

FAIL!!!

Can I borrow 50 bucks? 

[Chef Jim]

51 minutes ago, BigMcD said:

Can I borrow 50 bucks? 

 

No.