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One way to help Josh Allen's accuracy: Fewer dropped passes


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8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think this is such a good point that is forgotten. Brady might have one of the worst arms of any starter but he gets the ball to his playmakers in space where they can run.  

 

Yes.  Well, kind of.  Brady is a master of both precision and accuracy to the point where if his WR are reaching, he tells them how they should run their routes.  And he's the master of enabling the WR to make the grab and get running.  

 

But he has been able to play with a series of WR who are masters at catching in traffic and making themselves small/taking advantage of tiny gaps to get YAC. 

 

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19 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You also have to have an offensive game plan to get receivers in space.  Daboll should know how to run the pick plays that helped make Brady famous.

 

Daboll has schemed some effective plays at times.  WR have been open more than some realize

 

There have been two problems:

1) insufficient time for the play to develop (OL)

2) JA being unable to make the right read of the D and quickly determine where the mismatch will be

 

Hopefully both will change.

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Daboll has schemed some effective plays at times.  WR have been open more than some realize

 

There have been two problems:

1) insufficient time for the play to develop (OL)

2) JA being unable to make the right read of the D and quickly determine where the mismatch will be

 

Hopefully both will change.

To me Allen's greatest improvement will be mental and not physical.  Like many young QBs

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...if Daboll's play calling was reticent due to a crap supporting cast, he has to be encouraged with what "appears to be on paper (so far)", a significant improvement in offensive  talent....and it seems like JA has been working his tail off in the off season to improve as well......

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6 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Those pesky “dropped passes”.  Been plaguing Josh Allen since his JV days of High School.

 

If I were Allen, his agent or his parents I’d think there was some conspiracy going on.

 

No matter if it is High School, College or the NFL.

 

sub 60 % completion.

 

I mean...what do all these WRs have against Allen?  No matter where Allen goes he just seems to have the worst luck of being stuck with WRs that cannot catch.  Or they are all out to get him.

 

I mean those are the only two possible reasons, right?

 

this guy :lol:

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Sometimes?  If he's throwing a short pass or a dump-off, it's pretty clear he wants the WR to be positioned to run after catch so he's not trying to sail it high or send it toward the ground.  I'm not trying to dump on Josh here, accuracy on short passes was an identified gap for him both in college game film, at the combine, and at his pro day.

 

 

As I said, there are two issues: scored drops, and passes that aren't perfect but that top receivers in the league handle and haul in on a regular basis.

The Clay "drop" probably wasn't scored by ESPN as a drop, but certainly is a pass we need a guy with a $9M cap hit to secure.

That makes sense

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3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair point.  Our oline certainly wasn’t great but mobile qbs tend to get sacked more because they try to scramble and make big plays.  As others have said, Allen should take more of what the defense gives him.  I do think this is harder than posters think though.  There have been many a qb with a rocket arm that would struggle to completely short passes with consistency (Losman, McNabb).

 

For me it seems the big question is this, is Josh Allen (who has been labelled a big arm, scrambling, inaccurate QB) a product of what his limitations

are or has what he has done so far been due to what he was dealt?  Do you see what I mean?

 

If it's the former and that is for the most part what he is, he will struggle to make himself a great QB in the NFL.

If it's more the later and he has played the position because of combination of poor teams around him and it caused him to play

the only way he could to produce then it's on the Bills management to give the tools to bring out what his potential is.

 

At this time he gives me the impression he can be a lot more than what he has shown so far.

This will be a big year for him!

 

 

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7 hours ago, Toesy said:

It is not just the drops-every week in the NFL now you see receivers-sometimes even RBs-make catches they have no business making-just amazing plays-one handed catches used to be unusual-not now-I don't remember even one incredible catch last year from a Bill. Josh Allen is a strong QB already-you don't win with just one player-the rest of the offense needs to step it up. 

 

This is exactly right.  The best catches I can recall were the Demarco catch on the wheel route against the Chargers and Fosters catch along the sideline against Miami.  And neither of those were ever going to make the ESPN highlight reel.   Yet almost every time I watched a game on TV I saw WR/TE/RB's make circus catches.   IMO the LACK of great catches by the receivers was a bigger problem then the drops.  And when you combine the two, it explains why Allen completed less then 60% of his passes. 

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7 hours ago, Toesy said:

It is not just the drops-every week in the NFL now you see receivers-sometimes even RBs-make catches they have no business making-just amazing plays-one handed catches used to be unusual-not now-I don't remember even one incredible catch last year from a Bill. Josh Allen is a strong QB already-you don't win with just one player-the rest of the offense needs to step it up. 

 

This x 1000.

 

I've lost track of how many games I've watched - of other teams - where I find myself thinking "no Bills WR makes that catch" maybe 6 or 7 times per game, and it's not even a catch that the announcers flag as remarkable any more.

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8 hours ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

He can start hitting his guys in the flat when it's open to him. 

I don't believe Allen is inaccurate in the true sense of the word. I think he'd probably fare well if there was some kind of NFL QB competition for just hitting targets. 

 

The problem is largely recognition. Many of the poorly placed balls in the flat appeared to be rushed throws because he didn't assess the play quickly enough or was fixated on a target downfield. You could also factor in a poor offensive line, but we're talking about Josh. 

 

My hope is that experience working with Daboll and mastering the scheme will result in hastened processing of what he's seeing on the field. 

 

He's probably never going to be a 65 percent passer because he's always looking for the TD. He'll be fine IF he can get near 60. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, GG said:

 

Interesting. 

 

Any comments on the pass and drop on the immediately preceding down?

 

Another great point addressing the lack of great catches by the Bills receivers last season.  I assume you're talking about the perfectly placed ball by Allen that should have been caught at the Dolphins 5 yards line.  The play was ruled a catch but overturned on review.   Yet it should have been caught and likely would have led to a Bills win.

 

It really bugs me when folks claim that it was Allen's bad pass and not Clay's drop that mattered most on the play against Miami.  I say BS!  You can't evaluate that play without taking into consideration the amazing way in which Allen avoided being sacked TWICE on that play.  That he did not throw a perfect pass under those circumstances is not in the least bit surprising.  That an NFL TE making $9,000,000 per year was late adjusting to the ball AND couldn't make a knee level catch that NFL receivers make all the time was the real issue here.

 

Sure, Allen took responsibility and was clearly pissed that he hadn't thrown a better pass.  But that's why we're excited about next year - this kid gets what leadership looks & acts like.  But IMO that play was on Clay, NOT Allen. 

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2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Another great point addressing the lack of great catches by the Bills receivers last season.  I assume you're talking about the perfectly placed ball by Allen that should have been caught at the Dolphins 5 yards line.  The play was ruled a catch but overturned on review.   Yet it should have been caught and likely would have led to a Bills win.

 

It really bugs me when folks claim that it was Allen's bad pass and not Clay's drop that mattered most on the play against Miami.  I say BS!  You can't evaluate that play without taking into consideration the amazing way in which Allen avoided being sacked TWICE on that play.  That he did not throw a perfect pass under those circumstances is not in the least bit surprising.  That an NFL TE making $9,000,000 per year was late adjusting to the ball AND couldn't make a knee level catch that NFL receivers make all the time was the real issue here.

 

Sure, Allen took responsibility and was clearly pissed that he hadn't thrown a better pass.  But that's why we're excited about next year - this kid gets what leadership looks & acts like.  But IMO that play was on Clay, NOT Allen. 

You're a professional football player and you get two hands under the ball, you have to catch it.

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The other issue with the whole notion of what is and isn't a "dropped" pass, is the matter of misplayed balls.  The best example I can recall is the "lost the ball in the sun" play against New England.  That was a perfectly thrown deep ball that should have been an 80 yard TD pass.  Not only would that have been a nice stat line for Allen, more importantly it would have completely changed the course of that game.

 

On the positive front, I think Foster is a diamond in the rough who will be a fine NFL player.  I also think the addition of Brown & Beasley will have a huge & positive impact on the Bills receiving production. 

 

 

 

 

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The NFL average for 'on a dime' passes is 15 to 16 percent, which means that roughly half the QB's in the NFL are doing it more often than that. Josh Allen is doing that about half as often as the NFL average. There's no question that Allen's inability to place the ball with accuracy on a consistent basis is a major contributor to our dropped passes total. He has one of the worst accuracy ratings of any NFL QB's, not just starters. He has the strongest arm around, but the accuracy of a 3rd string QB.

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3 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

The NFL average for 'on a dime' passes is 15 to 16 percent, which means that roughly half the QB's in the NFL are doing it more often than that. Josh Allen is doing that about half as often as the NFL average. There's no question that Allen's inability to place the ball with accuracy on a consistent basis is a major contributor to our dropped passes total. He has one of the worst accuracy ratings of any NFL QB's, not just starters. He has the strongest arm around, but the accuracy of a 3rd string QB.

Keep confusing accuracy and precision.  You'll do anything to blast Allen.  And yes he needs to improve.

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