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Post draft Ranking AFC Hopefuls P1


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I did this after free agency of where I thought teams ranked in terms of their playoff chances based off roster additions and departures. With the draft and schedule out I am doing another ranking of the chances I give each AFC team of making it in. Remember just because a team has a talented roster it does not mean they have better odds to make the playoffs then a team with a cupcake schedule who may be less talented. The Bills made the playoffs in 2017 ahead of a far more talented Chargers team because of some luck and schedule advantages.

 

Virtual Lock (95% chance) :

New England

 

Even before the draft I in no way would pick against NE given their history despite the fact I think this is their weakest offense in a very long time. They had a superb draft which helped their defense and the offense should be a little better. I just cannot see a scenario they don't make it outside of injury to Brady. Even if the AFC East closes the gap the lowest I see NE falling is 10-6 and they still would be a WC team. 

 

Strong Contenders (55-75%) :

LA Chargers

KC Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts

 

The Chiefs drop from being a Virtual Lock after losing Tyreek Hill. I think they most likely still make the playoffs, but you do not replace a talent like Hill instantaneously and their defense is older with their additions. Basically their is a worst case scenario now where I could see them 9-7 even 8-8 if the defense doesn't gel and the offense doesn't have the same bite with a less explosive WR corp. On the flipside the Chargers had good draft and I think are the favorite for the AFC W at this point. Indy has done a superb job this offseason just building that foundation even stronger around Luck and I am confident that they are the class of their division now.

 

Playoff Hopefuls with a Flaw (35-50%) :

Buffalo Bills

NY Jets

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

As a Bills fan I can't believe I am saying this but between the schedule and additions Buffalo absolutely would be an easy pick for the playoffs. I liked that the Jets just added BPA with Williams and getting the home crowd at night for two of their toughest games certainly is a boost. It feels like its either BUF or NYJ for one of the two wild card spots. Cleveland has really done a great job building the roster, but they have not proved anything and with the amount of games under the bright lights I want to see how they perform with the pressure squarely on before making them a lock. On paper they are an 11-5 team, but the Steelers have shored up their defense a bit and will not go down without a fight although I think their WR corp is significantly weaker without AB.

 

If Everything Goes Right They Can Have A Great Playoff Season (25%) :

Baltimore Ravens

Houston Texans

Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars

Oakland Raiders

Tennessee Titans

 

All of these teams are relying on their draft picks to have a big impact. The dirty secret is just 44 rookies last year started more then 75% of their teams snaps so hoping the draft is your cure all will lead to disappointment. The Ravens I am not a believer in and the fact the passing game collapsed once Jackson came in is not a good long term sign. I think even if Brown helps their WR corp it is not enough and that D has many holes their are not being fixed this year. Houston seems like a potential four alarm fire ready to explode, they missed out on Andre Dillard at LT in the draft and were forced to scramble for a project O-line player. Their inability to win big games with O'Brien as head coach leads me to believe it is more likely they flame out at 6-10 or 7-9 especially with that schedule and refresh with a new HC for Watson. Denver actually had a great draft and I think find that they were better off keeping Keenum and letting Lock earn his way in. Fant will be a help to Flacco but this team really needs everything to go right to make it in. The Jags had a decent draft and their defense is as loaded as ever with Josh Allen joining the fold, but they just feel like a team that will spin their tires on offense to 7-9 or 8-8 with Foles who has never done a lot outside of PHI. The Raiders would've been much easier to buy as a true playoff hopeful if they would've grabbed Josh Allen to help their defense. I think their offense will be potent, but a porus defense will hamstrung Oakland. The Titans to me just feel like a hodgepodge of whatever, no one has an idea what Mariota will be anymore with Tannehill a worthy candidate to replace him in season, and their schedule is daunting to say the least.

 

Lets Just Go to the 2020 Draft:

Miami Dolphins

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Miami is interesting with Rosen. If he actually pans out a bit they will have the ability to add some real impact players in the 2020 draft or pickup a bounty of picks for the top pick. Their roster has so many holes though it will take time. Cincy just looks and feels destined for a 4-12 type season given the lack of impact players added in the draft (minus Jonah Williams addition) and the caliber of competition they face.

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Still think Houston should be up one. Yes their oline is a flaw. But it was a flaw last year and they made the playoffs. While both of their tackles are projects the bar to be better than the guys they were trotting out last year is not high. They only have to be passable to be an upgrade. 

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Watching Josh Allen's progression will be my paramount interest this year. Followed by watching Mahomes, then how players on my FF teams do.

 

Playoff prognosticating seems irrelevant until after Thanksgiving.

 

Edited by I am the egg man
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I like Houston ONLY if their OL can protect Watson.Browns look good on paper but They haven't done anything on the field yet so I'm not sold yet on them or the Jets. Steelers and Ravens should battle it out for the division again. I'm expecting to see the Chargers and Pats in the AFC title game. If Allen takes the next step forward, The Bills will take the first wild card spot

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Well, as a predictive model, it's a little weird to have the Chargers, and Chiefs both above 55%, and the Browns, and Steelers below 50%. Vegas, BTW, has the Browns with the third best odds of taking the AFC, behind the Pats*, and Chiefs, and ahead of the Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Steelers (in that order). 

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1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

Virtual Lock (95% chance) :

New England

 

Even before the draft I in no way would pick against NE given their history despite the fact I think this is their weakest offense in a very long time. They had a superb draft which helped their defense and the offense should be a little better. I just cannot see a scenario they don't make it outside of injury to Brady. Even if the AFC East closes the gap the lowest I see NE falling is 10-6 and they still would be a WC team. 

 

 

Was it the trade up for a punter in round 5 that cliched it for you?

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9 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Was it the trade up for a punter in round 5 that cliched it for you?

 

No it was the WR, CB, Pass Rush LB that did. All three were well regarded and I hated seeing NE get them but they did well

54 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Why would Houston be a notch lower than us?  Seems a bit homerish

 

Look at their schedule, factor in their sketchy O-line, the fact IND has put together a superb team in division, and then the rumors of O'Brien being canned its the perfect recipe for failed expectations. This was not a look at who is more talented otherwise HOU I would put ahead of a few of those teams, rather looking at the large picture itself.

51 minutes ago, BmarvB said:

I like Houston ONLY if their OL can protect Watson.Browns look good on paper but They haven't done anything on the field yet so I'm not sold yet on them or the Jets. Steelers and Ravens should battle it out for the division again. I'm expecting to see the Chargers and Pats in the AFC title game. If Allen takes the next step forward, The Bills will take the first wild card spot

 

Looking at their roster honestly knowing the holes they have and the fact at best only 20% of the entire NFL draft plays the majority of snaps for their team in season and that Jackson has not proven to be a passer can you honestly say they are any better then 8 wins? Baltimore is a team that lives off reputation despite being a .500 team for seasons now.

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1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Why would Houston be a notch lower than us?  Seems a bit homerish

For the reasons @corta765 said plus we play the Dolphins twice. We're categorizing based on teams on paper, it will all change when the pads go on but on paper the Dolphins will be terrible.

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2 hours ago, corta765 said:

....

Strong Contenders (55-75%) :

LA Chargers

KC Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts

 

The Chiefs drop from being a Virtual Lock after losing Tyreek Hill. I think they most likely still make the playoffs, but you do not replace a talent like Hill instantaneously and their defense is older with their additions. Basically their is a worst case scenario now where I could see them 9-7 even 8-8 if the defense doesn't gel and the offense doesn't have the same bite with a less explosive WR corp. On the flipside the Chargers had good draft and I think are the favorite for the AFC W at this point. Indy has done a superb job this offseason just building that foundation even stronger around Luck and I am confident that they are the class of their division now.

.....

 

Interesting analysis.   What would the resident KC fanboy ZeroVoltz say about this though?  :p

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7 minutes ago, SoTier said:

I think that either the Browns or Steelers have to be considered a "strong contender" simply because somebody has to win the AFCN.

 

Given the turnover playoff wise every year with 4-6 teams entering that were not the previous year it was too much to say one of those was that big of a lock. If CLE had made the playoffs last year I'd have an easier time buying that but they still need to prove they have the goods.

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46 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

It's ridiculous lol

 

Buffalo's defense and O-line is better then Houston's, the Bills schedule is hilariously easier on paper then Hou, the Texans division itself is far tougher across the board, and for a year plus there have been rumors that O'Brien is out. I think talent wise they are better but that never tells the whole story Drew Brees was wasted by the Saints with 7-9 three straight years why is it impossible for the same to happen to Watson?

 

Their opening 7 weeks are as followed:

 

Week 1 at NOLA MNF

Week 2 home Jax

Week 3 at LAC

Week 4 home CAR

Week 5 home ATL

Week 6 at KC

Week 7 at IND

 

Are you honestly saying it isn't possible they spin their tires big time and start 3-4 or even 2-5? All of those teams have good QBs and rosters minus Jax, and Foles is better then Bortles. Even after that opening 7 game stretch they have to go to London, host NE, and host IND plus go on the road against TEN, BAL, and TB. Again the point is not whose team is more talented its who has a better shot at the playoffs. Buffalo by comparison has a significantly easier schedule with their lines in much better shape.

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47 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Buffalo's defense and O-line is better then Houston's, the Bills schedule is hilariously easier on paper then Hou, the Texans division itself is far tougher across the board, and for a year plus there have been rumors that O'Brien is out. I think talent wise they are better but that never tells the whole story Drew Brees was wasted by the Saints with 7-9 three straight years why is it impossible for the same to happen to Watson?

 

Their opening 7 weeks are as followed:

 

Week 1 at NOLA MNF

Week 2 home Jax

Week 3 at LAC

Week 4 home CAR

Week 5 home ATL

Week 6 at KC

Week 7 at IND

 

Are you honestly saying it isn't possible they spin their tires big time and start 3-4 or even 2-5? All of those teams have good QBs and rosters minus Jax, and Foles is better then Bortles. Even after that opening 7 game stretch they have to go to London, host NE, and host IND plus go on the road against TEN, BAL, and TB. Again the point is not whose team is more talented its who has a better shot at the playoffs. Buffalo by comparison has a significantly easier schedule with their lines in much better shape.

 

I understand but they should still be under Playoff Hopefuls with a Flaw 

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27 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

5 teams will battle for 2 WC slots after all the divisions develop. NE, Pitt, Indy, LAC win their divisions then:

KC

Houston

Cleveland 

Buffalo 

NYJ

 

....in that order 

I could see that happening. Buffalo and NY Jets are pretty equal if you ask me. I don't think Cleveland will be as good as everyone thinks, but I do think they will have a winning season and contend for a wild card spot.

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