freddyjj Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said: You are looking at this wrong. This is a view of post year 1 and pre year 2 situations and how often the team record improved at least 1 win from year 1 to year 2. I am not any kind of serious gambler but if the situation is defined as: 1) Year 1 with a rookie QB with ~8 or more starts. 2) The Year 1 seasonal record being sub .500 . History shows at least a 1 game improvement 12 of 14 times. One of the two losers was Glennon who was a 3rd round pick and did not play much in Year 2. Without looking at the particular story, I do not expect that he was ever expected to be the franchise QB so he might be realistically excluded from the profile. It might then be 12 of 13. As for Manuel being pulled after 2 and 2, he would have needed to go 5 and 7 the rest of the way to be fully involved with making a 1 game improvement. Okay Causation vs correlation argument then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWins Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Assuming Allen stays healthy I would expect 8 wins or more. With a full training camp behind him as the unquestioned starter and the progress we have already seen that would seem to be a good starting point for him. It should be a fun season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 (edited) 31 minutes ago, freddyjj said: Okay Causation vs correlation argument then... Unfortunatley, if placing an over/under bet on a team's season win total you 1) must make the wager before games are played and 2) do not know how many games the year 1 rookie will start in year 2. Do bad teams get better draft picks? Do bad teams tend to draft the better QBs? Do bad teams with rookie QBs tend to correlate to more losses? Do improving QBs correlate to more wins? Do teams with salary cap space correlate to improving rosters? Do improving rosters correlate to more wins? I do not think any of these is an ice cream consumption to murder rate correlation. Yeah and I think EJ could have gone at least 5 and 7. Edited May 6, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 On 5/4/2019 at 5:12 PM, JESSEFEFFER said: The Chiefs were not sub .500 and Mahommes did not start 8+ his rookie year so he is not one of the 12 of 14. Who is “Mahommes”? I’ve never heard of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, mannc said: Who is “Mahommes”? I’ve never heard of him. Sure you have. I think he's related to Bonhomme Richard. Distant cousin maybe. Edited May 6, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said: Sure you have. I think he's related to Bonhomme Richard. Distant cousin maybe. Sure you have. I think he's related to Bonhomme Richard. Distant cousin maybe. Perhaps also related to Robert Griffen, the Third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 All I know is I wish I had 5 large my wife didn't know about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 (edited) On 5/4/2019 at 11:39 PM, BuffaloRebound said: Would be interesting to look at the archives and see the general sentiment on this board when these come out every year and if the Bills covered that year. My hunch is we always think it’s a no brainer to bet the over but Vegas is usually pretty close to what actually happens. Is that because they also possibly control the outcome ? Edited May 7, 2019 by ganesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 18 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said: All I know is I wish I had 5 large my wife didn't know about. payroll will gladly set up a side account to send a tidy sum each paycheck that only you and payroll knows about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 On 5/4/2019 at 2:09 PM, BuffaloRebound said: Would be interesting to look at the archives and see the general sentiment on this board when these come out every year and if the Bills covered that year. My hunch is we always think it’s a no brainer to bet the over but Vegas is usually pretty close to what actually happens. You'd think so. Unless there’s some bias that Vegas could profitably exploit. Seems like looking at l the lines for all 32 teams collectively could shed some light on that. I randomly chose a site for those figures and totaled the wins. Total wins was 259.5 rather than the expected 256 so the average team wins was 8.1. +3.5 wins across the league seems pretty reasonable - and actually maybe a little low. I believe that there is one big reason for that: injuries. Fans are betting on expected outcomes of relatively healthy teams now. They aren’t factoring in the relatively low chance that THEIR team will have a catastrophic problem. They won’t see their QB get knocked out for most of the season or have their star player suspended indefinitely. But things like that will happen to a couple or a few teams. So I’d conclude that, if anything, Vegas is actually shading the win totals up ever so slightly to reap the benefits of those events. Not the other way around. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2019-nfl-win-totals-betting-odds-vegas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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