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Kentucky Derby Predictions?


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23 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

A horse. But in a serious note with the number of horses that have died at the local area track (Santa Anita) the past few months I’m having second thoughts about the sport. It’s crazy what’s been happening there. 

 

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26411518/santa-anita-sees-23rd-horse-fatality-dec-26?platform=amp

It's been on the cruel side, with respect to the horses, for a very long time.

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7 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

It's been on the cruel side, with respect to the horses, for a very long time.

 

I never looked at it that way. Just took it for granted. The Sport of Kings and all but this has got me thinking. Sorry didn’t mean to hijack the thread. I still think the horses are amazingly beautiful. 

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I think I’m going to use By My Standards (supposedly has been training like a monster), the Baffert horses because you have to, Tacitus, Maximim Security and Win, Win, Win.

 

Haven’t put it together yet but think that I’m going to try to catch with Tacitus, Win, Win, Win and By My Standards on top. 

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38 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

I never looked at it that way. Just took it for granted. The Sport of Kings and all but this has got me thinking. Sorry didn’t mean to hijack the thread. I still think the horses are amazingly beautiful. 

No doubt about their beauty but I was always fearful that one would fall, and have to be "destroyed."  Once that sunk in, my interest in the sport, waned.

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3 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

A horse. But in a serious note with the number of horses that have died at the local area track (Santa Anita) the past few months I’m having second thoughts about the sport. It’s crazy what’s been happening there. 

 

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26411518/santa-anita-sees-23rd-horse-fatality-dec-26?platform=amp

Yea, that has been a strange, strange story out there. I love the ponies, have been betting them since the late 70s with paper route money..never remember seeing anything like what has been happening at Santa Anita. 

 

I know I am an old fugger, but i think one of the contributing factors to more horses breaking down in training, especially in So Cal, is the focus on "speed" in the breeding, and the increased use of drugs across the whole of the sport. 30 years ago, a decent  horse  old might run every other week for most of their 3 and 4-year-old seasons..maybe 12-16 races per year. Prolly put in 8 as a two-year-old. 

 

Now if a horse race once a month it is considered a heavy workload..maybe 5 or 6 races in a year..maybe 2 as a two year old. They are just not as sturdy as they once were.

 

Having said that..I have followed zero prep races this year..numbers it be!!!

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1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Yea, that has been a strange, strange story out there. I love the ponies, have been betting them since the late 70s with paper route money..never remember seeing anything like what has been happening at Santa Anita. 

 

I know I am an old fugger, but i think one of the contributing factors to more horses breaking down in training, especially in So Cal, is the focus on "speed" in the breeding, and the increased use of drugs across the whole of the sport. 30 years ago, a decent  horse  old might run every other week for most of their 3 and 4-year-old seasons..maybe 12-16 races per year. Prolly put in 8 as a two-year-old. 

 

Now if a horse race once a month it is considered a heavy workload..maybe 5 or 6 races in a year..maybe 2 as a two year old. They are just not as sturdy as they once were.

 

Having said that..I have followed zero prep races this year..numbers it be!!!

 

And they always bring in a reliever by the sixth furlong now....

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I like Tacitus. Heading to the otb today agr work and again tomorrow with my mom.

5 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

A horse. But in a serious note with the number of horses that have died at the local area track (Santa Anita) the past few months I’m having second thoughts about the sport. It’s crazy what’s been happening there. 

 

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26411518/santa-anita-sees-23rd-horse-fatality-dec-26?platform=amp

Didn't they shut it down for a little while?

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4 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

 

Didn't they shut it down for a little while?

 

They did and I believe they had another death shortly after reopening. I just wonder the number of horses being put down at other tracks that are going unreported because the numbers are “small” compared to Santa Anita. 

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7 hours ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

No doubt about their beauty but I was always fearful that one would fall, and have to be "destroyed."  Once that sunk in, my interest in the sport, waned.

The last time I went to the track was the last time.

 

It was at Finger Lakes race track in Farmington (just south of Rochester) not one but two horses were taken down that day, one right in front of the grand stand. Just never felt like going back after that.

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I predict that many of the horses in this race will die at a very young age.

 

https://nypost.com/2019/05/03/kentucky-derby-to-kick-off-under-cloud-of-horse-deaths/

 

This "sport" is akin to dog fighting and #### fighting.  Racing to the death so humans can profit.  

 

Saratoga averages 14 deaths per year.  For what?

 

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10 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I predict that many of the horses in this race will die at a very young age.

 

https://nypost.com/2019/05/03/kentucky-derby-to-kick-off-under-cloud-of-horse-deaths/

 

This "sport" is akin to dog fighting and #### fighting.  Racing to the death so humans can profit.  

 

Saratoga averages 14 deaths per year.  For what?

 

For $.....and it's a pretty long reach to compare horse racing to putting animals in a cage to fight one another. 

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4 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

For $.....and it's a pretty long reach to compare horse racing to putting animals in a cage to fight one another. 

 

Not really.  Humans are setting animals up to die for their own monetary gain.  The human demographics may differ, but the end result for the animals is the same.

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6 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Not really.  Humans are setting animals up to die for their own monetary gain.  The human demographics may differ, but the end result for the animals is the same.

And as we all know horses are otherwise immortal so you're definitely correct on this.

 

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just gunna put this here and you ake it for what it is worth. One of the best handicappers I have ever know is resident at the OTB I frequent in Richmond, and he was on fire at Gulfstream yesterday. Now he bets way different than me, can't use a lot of he does...but he did put me onto the Oaks Exacta for a cool $950 for $2bet yesterday!!!

 

Now he readily admits the Derby is a crap shoot and anything can happen, but he likes the 3,6,19. 

 

EDIT..he gave me these after the Oaks, and after maybe I had had a few celebratory beverages...have no clue if he handicapped these for a wet track..?

 

and you could not pay me to go close to an OTB today....people think the Bills tailgates are rough..go to an OTB on Derby day and some dolt is trying  to figure out how to make his $2 Win bet on the Derby whilst some regular is steaming behind him as he just missed his $45 exacta that he  was gunna pound for $50!!!

 

That is truly UGLY!!!!

 

Edited by plenzmd1
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10 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Not really.  Humans are setting animals up to die for their own monetary gain.  The human demographics may differ, but the end result for the animals is the same.

 

My cats are a drain on my pocketbook, I better stop before she reads this...

 

 

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