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Best Route Concepts for Third Down


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1 minute ago, badassgixxer05 said:

Guessing right on what the defense will be running will have the best results no matter what offense you will be running.

 

Great insight!  Catching the ball will result in more completions as well.

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43 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Great insight!  Catching the ball will result in more completions as well.

 

Funny stuff.

 

I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion.  For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt.  Best case is a DPI or TD.

 

Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year.

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15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Funny stuff.

 

I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion.  For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt.  Best case is a DPI or TD.

 

Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year.

 

Well, there's always the scenario of a big return off an INT.  Not sure how likely that is vs. a big return off a punt, but I get your point.

 

Part of what was encouraging to me last year was the willingness to throw it past the sticks on 3rd and 7+. Now there's data to help support my assumption!

 

Not that data to the contrary would have changed my mind.  I am a football fan, after all.

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There are a lot of contributing factors here. Distance to first down, the WR running the routes, the QB throwing the ball, and the defensive formation. I can see where the Post and Corner routes would be more successful as it puts more pressure on the Safeties, CB's, and LB's possibly dropping into Zone coverages. 

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22 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down.  Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was

I agree as we’ve often gotten terrible results on these plays. Makes it even more maddening when you see the Pats* WR make a 4 yard reception on 3rd and 7 , yet you just know they will pick up the first. ?

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44 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down.  Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was

 

There has to be a concept of crossing routed near the sticks and some speedsters going deep.  

 

We have deep threats and with Bease we have a short to medium threat.  

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Funny stuff.

 

I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion.  For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt.  Best case is a DPI or TD.

 

Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second and a QB with a Howitzer we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year.

 

See emphasis above.  I completely agree when you're talking 3rd and long -- not so much when it's 3rd and 5 or less.  You need to move the chains.  I'm very much in favor of deep shots on 2nd down, though.

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3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Here's a very cool, detailed analysis by Football Outsiders on success of each route in the NFL tree on third down.

 

Definitely worth a read:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/third-down-and-air-yards

 

Might provoke some good discussion now that we've entered the doldrums of the offseason.

 

Not True, the Robert Kraft thread could go on for months

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11 minutes ago, eball said:

 

See emphasis above.  I completely agree when you're talking 3rd and long -- not so much when it's 3rd and 5 or less.  You need to move the chains.  I'm very much in favor of deep shots on 2nd down, though.

Best time to take a deep shot is second and two.

1 minute ago, HOUSE said:

 

Not True, the Robert Kraft thread could go on for months

Or it might only last seconds.

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You stack two WRs in the slot and the one in the back rubs off the one in the front based on the alignment of the secondary. It essentially works every time. Assuming the distance is reasonable it’s virtually impossible to stop and can’t understand why the Bills have never figured this out.

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4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Funny stuff.

 

I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion.  For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt.  Best case is a DPI or TD.

 

Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year.

Jim Kelly used to be the master of going long on 3rd down. Worst case it’s like a punt. Much better chance of a pass interference call these days too.

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