Rookie QB Blind Stats Comparison

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

Thing that they had going for them is their HC are pretty good offensive coaches. I like Daboll though but if our 2019 season looks like the second half and Allen impresses he's going to be a HC for someone next year.

 

The thing that I've pointed out in both the Goff and Trubisky cases is the dramatic shift in approach between years 1 and 2.  In both cases, the respective teams:

 

- brought in a creative, offensive-minded play-caller as HC.  LAR hired McVay; Chicago hired Nagy.

- fortified their OL as much as possible with draft picks and FA signings. Rams brought in Whitworth, Sullivan, and Blythe in a single offseason. Bears drafted Daniels.

- stocked the offense with speed and playmaking ability.  The Rams acquired Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Everett, and Reynolds. The Bears brought in Gabriel, Robinson, Burton, and Anthony Miller.

 

The Bills have taken the Bears-Rams Lite approach.  They stuck with an OC that they believe can be a creative play-caller, and tried to revamp both the OL and WR group in a single offseason.  I fear that they have fallen short of either Chicago or LA's approach to the WR position, as I don't feel super-confident that Beasley/Brown will have anywhere near the effect of the other teams' additions.

 

That said, if they can help Allen make even a 30% improvement in his play from his rookie season, you could see a much different WR group in 2020 that they'd hope would help him make the leap.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The thing that I've pointed out in both the Goff and Trubisky cases is the dramatic shift in approach between years 1 and 2.  In both cases, the respective teams:

 

- brought in a creative, offensive-minded play-caller as HC.  LAR hired McVay; Chicago hired Nagy.

- fortified their OL as much as possible with draft picks and FA signings. Rams brought in Whitworth, Sullivan, and Blythe in a single offseason. Bears drafted Daniels.

- stocked the offense with speed and playmaking ability.  The Rams acquired Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Everett, and Reynolds. The Bears brought in Gabriel, Robinson, Burton, and Anthony Miller.

 

The Bills have taken the Bears-Rams Lite approach.  They stuck with an OC that they believe can be a creative play-caller, and tried to revamp both the OL and WR group in a single offseason.  I fear that they have fallen short of either Chicago or LA's approach to the WR position, as I don't feel super-confident that Beasley/Brown will have anywhere near the effect of the other teams' additions.

 

That said, if they can help Allen make even a 30% improvement in his play from his rookie season, you could see a much different WR group in 2020 that they'd hope would help him make the leap.

 

Great points. I'd add that 2020 WR class looks historic. I know I shouldn't be saying that 12 months out but there are some great talents in next year's class.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The thing that I've pointed out in both the Goff and Trubisky cases is the dramatic shift in approach between years 1 and 2.  In both cases, the respective teams:

 

- brought in a creative, offensive-minded play-caller as HC.  LAR hired McVay; Chicago hired Nagy.

- fortified their OL as much as possible with draft picks and FA signings. Rams brought in Whitworth, Sullivan, and Blythe in a single offseason. Bears drafted Daniels.

- stocked the offense with speed and playmaking ability.  The Rams acquired Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Everett, and Reynolds. The Bears brought in Gabriel, Robinson, Burton, and Anthony Miller.

 

The Bills have taken the Bears-Rams Lite approach.  They stuck with an OC that they believe can be a creative play-caller, and tried to revamp both the OL and WR group in a single offseason.  I fear that they have fallen short of either Chicago or LA's approach to the WR position, as I don't feel super-confident that Beasley/Brown will have anywhere near the effect of the other teams' additions.

 

That said, if they can help Allen make even a 30% improvement in his play from his rookie season, you could see a much different WR group in 2020 that they'd hope would help him make the leap.

 

The Bears had a pretty good OL in any event.... in that regard we are much more like the Rams who had major Oline questions in Goff's rookie year. I do think we have fallen short at WR but it just was not a good year to acquire WR talent. I thought it was a deep but pretty average group in the draft, there wasn't a lot in FA and we did try to trade for the biggest name on that market.... just couldn't get it done.

[thebandit27]

10 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

Great points. I'd add that 2020 WR class looks historic. I know I shouldn't be saying that 12 months out but there are some great talents in next year's class.

 

Agreed...there's as many as 6-7 WRs who have the look of 1st-round players going into the upcoming college season.

 

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bears had a pretty good OL in any event.... in that regard we are much more like the Rams who had major Oline questions in Goff's rookie year. I do think we have fallen short at WR but it just was not a good year to acquire WR talent. I thought it was a deep but pretty average group in the draft, there wasn't a lot in FA and we did try to trade for the biggest name on that market.... just couldn't get it done.

 

Agreed.  I don't know how much more could've been done, but I do wonder if we're going to look back at this offseason and wish that Beane had made the move to acquire OBJ (or made a similar blockbuster move).

[BuffaloHokie13]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The Bears had a pretty good OL in any event.... in that regard we are much more like the Rams who had major Oline questions in Goff's rookie year. I do think we have fallen short at WR but it just was not a good year to acquire WR talent. I thought it was a deep but pretty average group in the draft, there wasn't a lot in FA and we did try to trade for the biggest name on that market.... just couldn't get it done.

The Rams didn't acquire Sammy until preseason was underway. There's still time, potentially.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I knew it was Ben instantly. Obviously Ben had a better team around him but he had a better rookie year too.

 

 

and a great ST that won playoff games for them

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the opposite on this board. People here make excuses for Allen and write Rosen off as a bust. That is to be expected on a Bills board. Both had awful situations - both struggled as passers as a result - JA did more to help his team win games with his athleticism and running ability.

 

Neither was even in the ball park of Big Ben as a rookie. At the time Ben's was one of THE best rookie QB seasons in history. As the league has changed since it has been overtaken but for his time it was a pretty incredible effort.

He was throwing balls to Hines Ward,  Plexico Burress  and handing balls to Willie Parker and Bettis.   Besides having a defense that starred Polamalu.   There is something called Situational Football that throws stats out the window. 

[zow2]

1 hour ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

We should be looking at Mitch Trubisky v Josh Allen and hoping Josh Allen's second season takes a jump like Trubisky's did. If it does we're a playoff team.

 

Yup. Been saying this too.  Gotta have a 2nd year progression like Trubisky.

 

Also, like every other running QB, Allen's rushing TD's should be included when evaluating his season.  He accounted for 18 TD's with his arm and legs.   As his career goes on I would hope his passing TD's increase while his rushing TD's decrease a bit.  

[FeelingOnYouboty]

13 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

Yup. Been saying this too.  Gotta have a 2nd year progression like Trubisky.

 

Also, like every other running QB, Allen's rushing TD's should be included when evaluating his season.  He accounted for 18 TD's with his arm and legs.   As his career goes on I would hope his passing TD's increase while his rushing TD's decrease a bit.  

 

Hoping for 24 passing TD's, 10 rushing TD's this year and for him to get to the 60% completion pct threshold. He's so aggressive he feels like he's cheating the system if he dumps it off into the flat but we're going to need him to start hitting that so we're not in 3rd and long situations.

[ProcessAccepted]

1 hour ago, Mark80 said:

 

Not saying I don't like Josh or don't think he's going to be a great player very, very soon.  I'm just saying comparing his and Big Ben's rookie year utilizing a statistical comparison is not the way to go since they are vastly different numbers.  That's all.

 

My point is that you did acknowledged that Ben had much better players around him, future HOFers to be precise. However in your comment you then dismissed that and go into a direct comparison of their statistics (excluding Josh Allen's run game).

 

This reminds me of that old game show where you are given a fixed amount of time in a store to go grab as much as you can in 60 seconds, except in this case your opponent gets to bring his two buddies with him to help. If the OP is going to use stats then the basis of how they are calculated should be comparable. A fairer and more accurate comparison might be David Carr's first year in Houston. 

 

Edited May 1, 2019 by ProcessAccepted

[zow2]

22 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

Hoping for 24 passing TD's, 10 rushing TD's this year and for him to get to the 60% completion pct threshold. He's so aggressive he feels like he's cheating the system if he dumps it off into the flat but we're going to need him to start hitting that so we're not in 3rd and long situations.

 

That would be a phenomenal season and I don't think it's realistic.  If he throws 24 TD passes, it likely means he's not diving in for TD's like he did last season...he's probably taking the dump off or short throw for a touchdown instead.

 

If he plays all 16 games, i think his season will be 20 TD passes, 5 rushing TD,  58% completion.   And that would be very good IMO.  

[dickleyjones]

so you have proven josh allen is not ben roethlisberger. well done?

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, ganesh said:

and a great ST that won playoff games for them

He was throwing balls to Hines Ward,  Plexico Burress  and handing balls to Willie Parker and Bettis.   Besides having a defense that starred Polamalu.   There is something called Situational Football that throws stats out the window. 

 

He still had a very good rookie season. The idea that somehow Josh's rookie season matches up to Ben's is just incredible. Yes one had a good team and one had a bad tea. But Ben played really well as a rookie. Josh was up and down, showed promise. The two are not the same even taking situation into account.

[BigBuff423]

4 hours ago, Mark80 said:

Honestly man, these stats aren't even close.  Ben's season blew Josh's away.  Sure, he may have had a better roster to work with, but his accuracy, yards per attempt, TD ratio, passer rating are all way above Josh's.  Not exactly sure what you are going for here, but a stat comparison is not where you should have gone to compare him to Big Ben.

 

My intent was to try and look at some of the similarities in the production based solely on general body-type and physical ability with the arm (IMO, Josh's is better). Josh is far more mobile and athletic in that respect as well, but seeing the difference in how a well constructed team as a whole impacts a Rookie who has talent but doesn't have the Offensive Line, RB (sorry, Shady is good but he's not currently Bettis in his prime good), and WRing options Ben had and to think that with those things in mind, Josh isn't *that* far off in terms of potential. 

 

Essentially, I was showing how I believe we can look forward to Josh improving when he has the privilege of a more complete Offense to work from and a terrific Defense afforded Ben and will help Josh because neither had / has to be perfect to win games. The good Defense allows for growing pains and allows for mistakes without determining a season. The Offensive compliment of tools and resources does in fact produce different results and often in these discussions, it sounds like those of us who like Josh are making excuses for him or others are expecting him to be a miracle worker. 

 

IMHO, this provided a glimpse of what is reasonably possible in Josh's second year considering Ben's Rookie season. To me, it was just another way to see the same discussion we've had since Josh was drafted and a new perspective. I also knew there would be and will be those who don't see the value in this different perspective, and I respect that position as well. 

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Should have included the rushing aspect.

Ben: 144 yds, 1 TD

Josh: 631 yds, 8 TDs (in 2 less games)

 

I agree that passing alone does not show Josh's overall production, but I did say in my post why I didn't include them. Merely, because the debate or discussion about how much value running as a QB adds to the position and game management overall is a whole-nother thread in and of itself. So, I stuck to passing stats alone since that will ultimately determine Josh's success or failure. But, you're right - last year it was a big part of Josh's game and an important contributor to him making some good gains as an Offensive unit on the whole. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

It's not blind, but in case anyone wants an easy(ish) comparison for passing/running of rookies going back to 2011

[BigBuff423]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He still had a very good rookie season. The idea that somehow Josh's rookie season matches up to Ben's is just incredible. Yes one had a good team and one had a bad tea. But Ben played really well as a rookie. Josh was up and down, showed promise. The two are not the same even taking situation into account.

 

Right, and it was not meant to be a demonstration of which Rookie had a better Rookie season, it was the situation both were put in with similar physical traits and arm talent. It was the idea that surrounding a Rookie QB with a complete team otherwise demonstrates just how important it truly is and that while the numbers show Ben obviously had a better season, it wasn't like comparing a 4,000 yd passer and 30 TDs to 5INTs, etc. It's that Josh is close to being a similar version of Ben, but a better runner, and with a better team around Josh, we should EXPECT to see that growth as so many have said before and again in this thread. But, people rush to judgment and point to Mahomes and say, "Ah, what did the Bills do??!!!" and then say they should have Drafted him. But fail to contextualize the potential in Josh when surrounded by Mahomes' supporting cast or as I pointed out, Big Ben's in his Rookie year. And, Ben was not meant to start his Rookie season as Josh wasn't either, but Maddox got hurt - Peterman stunk - and both were pushed forward but one had a team-ready approach the other (Bills) had not yet built the rest of the roster making Josh's development harder and his weaknesses all the more glaring. 

 

Context was the point - it wasn't about matching up or trying to convince Josh's season was on the same level as Ben's. It was to put it all into context and what a reasonable expectation could / should be for Josh moving into this upcoming year. 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The thing that I've pointed out in both the Goff and Trubisky cases is the dramatic shift in approach between years 1 and 2.  In both cases, the respective teams:

 

- brought in a creative, offensive-minded play-caller as HC.  LAR hired McVay; Chicago hired Nagy.

- fortified their OL as much as possible with draft picks and FA signings. Rams brought in Whitworth, Sullivan, and Blythe in a single offseason. Bears drafted Daniels.

- stocked the offense with speed and playmaking ability.  The Rams acquired Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Everett, and Reynolds. The Bears brought in Gabriel, Robinson, Burton, and Anthony Miller.

 

The Bills have taken the Bears-Rams Lite approach.  They stuck with an OC that they believe can be a creative play-caller, and tried to revamp both the OL and WR group in a single offseason.  I fear that they have fallen short of either Chicago or LA's approach to the WR position, as I don't feel super-confident that Beasley/Brown will have anywhere near the effect of the other teams' additions.

 

That said, if they can help Allen make even a 30% improvement in his play from his rookie season, you could see a much different WR group in 2020 that they'd hope would help him make the leap.

Agreed with all this.  My major issues:

 

1). No true 1 Receiver.  This is a receiving core that is NE like.  There is no one where Allen can just say I’m going to him for a big play consistently.

 

2). A lot of trust for a guy who has been a bottom 5 OC for his entire nfl career.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DaboBr0.htm

3 hours ago, ProcessAccepted said:

 

This is the one thing that confounds me. "Sure he may have had a better roster to work with but..." Why do poeple give Josh Rosen a pass in Arizona but not Josh Allen. How many games did we win because of Josh Allen despite the horrible OL and below average receiving corp. 

On what planet did Rosen get a pass?  He got blamed for everything and got traded a year into his career. 

[ProcessAccepted]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

On what planet did Rosen get a pass?  He got blamed for everything and got traded a year into his career. 

 

Just two examples. There is a ton of people who readily make excuses for Josh Rosen but all you hear about Allen is completion % and he runs too much.

 

"Rosen was placed in a situation that no quarterback would have succeeded in — not even Murray. Offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was fired midseason, the offensive line ranked among the worst in the league and the receiving corps struggled."

https://cardswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/06/nfl-offseason-az-arizona-cardinals-josh-rosen/

 

 

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

Right, and it was not meant to be a demonstration of which Rookie had a better Rookie season, it was the situation both were put in with similar physical traits and arm talent. It was the idea that surrounding a Rookie QB with a complete team otherwise demonstrates just how important it truly is and that while the numbers show Ben obviously had a better season, it wasn't like comparing a 4,000 yd passer and 30 TDs to 5INTs, etc. It's that Josh is close to being a similar version of Ben, but a better runner, and with a better team around Josh, we should EXPECT to see that growth as so many have said before and again in this thread. But, people rush to judgment and point to Mahomes and say, "Ah, what did the Bills do??!!!" and then say they should have Drafted him. But fail to contextualize the potential in Josh when surrounded by Mahomes' supporting cast or as I pointed out, Big Ben's in his Rookie year. And, Ben was not meant to start his Rookie season as Josh wasn't either, but Maddox got hurt - Peterman stunk - and both were pushed forward but one had a team-ready approach the other (Bills) had not yet built the rest of the roster making Josh's development harder and his weaknesses all the more glaring. 

 

Context was the point - it wasn't about matching up or trying to convince Josh's season was on the same level as Ben's. It was to put it all into context and what a reasonable expectation could / should be for Josh moving into this upcoming year. 

 

I guess I don't really understand the point then. Josh Allen could get better? Yep. I think he will. Big Ben had a better team? Yep. He also played a lot better. People think the Bills should have taken Mahomes at #10 in 2017? Yea, if Pat Mahomes continues to be close to the QB he was last year then unless Josh Allen gets to that same level you better get ready to hear that for as long as Mahomes's career lasts. 

 

I don't really know what context this brings that allows one to draw any sort of useful conclusion beyond the obvious. 

 

It has been said on here before but it bears repeating - the standard to hold Josh's sophomore NFL campaign to is Mitch Trubisky in Chicago just last year. If he gets there I think he is on track. If he falls short then doubts will creep back in and if he outperforms Trubisky's 2018 then I think we can feel really good about where he is headed. 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

18 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

 

Just two examples. There is a ton of people who readily make excuses for Josh Rosen but all you hear about Allen is completion % and he runs too much.

 

"Rosen was placed in a situation that no quarterback would have succeeded in — not even Murray. Offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was fired midseason, the offensive line ranked among the worst in the league and the receiving corps struggled."

https://cardswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/06/nfl-offseason-az-arizona-cardinals-josh-rosen/

 

 

I mean Rosen was in an awful situation.  Weirdly, Buffalo was a much more stable situation than Arizona.  He had consistent coaching.  Other than that, they both had less than desirable situations and it’s too early to react to them either way.  

 

But it I would say getting traded a year after going top 10 isn’t getting a pass. 

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I guess I don't really understand the point then. Josh Allen could get better? Yep. I think he will. Big Ben had a better team? Yep. He also played a lot better. People think the Bills should have taken Mahomes at #10 in 2017? Yea, if Pat Mahomes continues to be close to the QB he was last year then unless Josh Allen gets to that same level you better get ready to hear that for as long as Mahomes's career lasts. 

 

I don't really know what context this brings that allows one to draw any sort of useful conclusion beyond the obvious. 

 

It has been said on here before but it bears repeating - the standard to hold Josh's sophomore NFL campaign to is Mitch Trubisky in Chicago just last year. If he gets there I think he is on track. If he falls short then doubts will creep back in and if he outperforms Trubisky's 2018 then I think we can feel really good about where he is headed. 

 

 

Good post Gunner.  I just worry the lack of number 1 (I don’t think either are great but Robinson and Burton would be our best wr/ TE) and Daboll isn’t close to Matt Nagy could hold Allen back.  

 

It will be interested how defenses defend Allen now (I assume keep him in the pocket, spy him, take away deep throws) and how he adjusts.  Its such a different ballgame once teams get tape on you and try to exploit your weaknesses.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

 

Just two examples. There is a ton of people who readily make excuses for Josh Rosen but all you hear about Allen is completion % and he runs too much.

 

"Rosen was placed in a situation that no quarterback would have succeeded in — not even Murray. Offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was fired midseason, the offensive line ranked among the worst in the league and the receiving corps struggled."

https://cardswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/06/nfl-offseason-az-arizona-cardinals-josh-rosen/

 

 

 

So in order to make your point valid find the same two people saying Josh Allen sucks and runs too much.