Jump to content

Post Draft Vegas Season Win Over / Under Bills at 6.5


Recommended Posts

21 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

I think they should cover but I don't bet the Bills. If you're a fan, like all of us here are, youre gonna be swayed by fandom. Just stay away.

 

I have the Ravens at under 8.5. I can't see them winning 9. Their line fluctuates a decent amount.

Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u

 

Yeah okay....

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u

sure as hell hope you have made betting the Bills your full time job...if i could hit 65 % winners i would be a rich man !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Yeah okay....

 

 

Did you read?  Apparently not.  If you did, you’d realize that’s it’s not very hard 

9 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

sure as hell hope you have made betting the Bills your full time job...if i could hit 65 % winners i would be a rich man !

65% vs the spread, money line and o/u.

 

maybe some people don’t know what the money line is

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Did you read?  Apparently not.  If you did, you’d realize that’s it’s not very hard 

65% vs the spread, money line and o/u.

 

maybe some people don’t know what the money line is

 

are you not saying you hit 65% winners? Are are you saying for every $1000 you bet, you lose 350?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

are you not saying you hit 65% winners? Are are you saying for every $1000 you bet, you lose 350?

I believe my ratio would be around 65% win% betting on games vs the spread (have to win/lose within a certain amount), money line (win or lose) and over/under total points scored.  65% isn’t very good if every bet was a money line bet.  The majority are against the spread but I’d have to guess 15-20% of the bets are money line.

 

my point of saying this was in response to someone saying that we shouldn’t bet the Bills due to personal bias’ as Bills fans.  I don’t have a betting bias towards the Bills.  When I bet against them, I forget about the bet til after the game.  The only thing that matters is a W.  It’s just hard to pass up good value at times

 

edit;  I’d say the majority of my wagers against the Bills are money line bets that are -200+.  Usually covers hence the high percentage

Edited by NewEra
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I believe my ratio would be around 65% win% betting on games vs the spread (have to win/lose within a certain amount), money line (win or lose) and over/under total points scored.  65% isn’t very good if every bet was a money line bet.  The majority are against the spread but I’d have to guess 15-20% of the bets are money line.

 

my point of saying this was in response to someone saying that we shouldn’t bet the Bills due to personal bias’ as Bills fans.  I don’t have a betting bias towards the Bills.  When I bet against them, I forget about the bet til after the game.  The only thing that matters is a W.  It’s just hard to pass up good value at times

So i usually associate moneyline with taking the dog..that is pretty much only side I ever bet. But maybe oyu are saying you sometimes also play the favorite on the moneyline

 

That being said, 65%  winners is considered elite level win percentage, and i do mean elite, like almost impossible. Read these articles..says 70% is almost statistically impossible

 

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/

 

https://drbobsports.com/sports-betting-as-an-investment/

 

So as I say, if you are hitting 65%..quit your job and do that poop full time!

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

So i usually associate moneyline with taking the dog..that is pretty much only side I ever bet. But maybe oyu are saying you sometimes also play the favorite on the moneyline

 

That being said, 65%  winners is considered elite level win percentage, and i do mean elite, like almost impossible. Read these articles..says 70% is almost statistically impossible

 

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/

 

https://drbobsports.com/sports-betting-as-an-investment/

 

So as I say, if you are hitting 65%..quit your job and do that poop full time!

 

 

Yeah, I’ll play favorites on the ML.  Sometimes straight bets but usually in a 2-3 teamer

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I suspect in a future thread, not too far off,  “the vig” will be closely connected to @plenzmd1.  He seems to know too much about the industry, and he travels with a large band of reconnaissance personnel.  Trust them at your own risk. But have a damn good time either way! 

 

 

Edited by Augie
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...
1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Anyone here actually bet this?

 

I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship...

 

I wish I had the patience to make these season long bets. I have $750 tied up on Jacob Degrom to win the Cy Young which I made a few weeks ago and it is annoying me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Anyone here actually bet this?

 

I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship...

 

I'm not a big roller and the payout wasn't worth the effort of driving to a sportsbook. But I did take +450 on the Bills making the playoffs back in August. I also took +1200 on winning the division.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

 

I wish I had the patience to make these season long bets. I have $750 tied up on Jacob Degrom to win the Cy Young which I made a few weeks ago and it is annoying me. 

 

Yeah, its normally not my thing either.. but thought that the Bills odds were more than generous so thought I would give it a go...

 

Wish I had bet the over 6.5...   with games against Miami x 2, Jets and Washington, they could probably put Peterman back out there and cover this...

 

Edited by Aussie Joe
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...