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So why was Josh Allen a 1st rounder & Tyree Jackson Undrafted?


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Josh Allen was always said to be a "project" QB, with a raw skillset but the physical attributes and athleticism that made him worth drafting on potential alone. Great size & arm strength were constantly noted, as were accuracy issues.

 

On the other hand, Tyree Jackson is said to be the liked for the same reasons. Great size and athleticism, fantastic arm strength, but also inaccurate. They both also faced similar criticisms for facing inferior competition throughout their collegiate careers.


Josh Allen is 6'5 and 240 lbs.

Tyree Jackson is 6'7 and 249 lbs.

 

Josh Allen's hand size is 10 & 1/8 inches.

Tyree Jackson's hand size is 10 & 1/4 inches.


Josh Allen's arms measured at 33 & 1/4 inches.

Tyree Jackson's arms measured at 34 & 1/4 inches.

 

Josh Allen ran a 4.75 second 40 yard dash.

Tyree Jackson ran a 4.59 second 40 yard dash.

 

Josh Allen had a 33.5 inch vertical jump.

Tyree Jackson had a 34.5 inch vertical jump.

 

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So in terms of physical attributes, size & athleticism, they both are extremely similar in every way. Now to break down stats a bit:

Josh Allen's Completion Percentage his final season - 56.3%

Tyree Jackson's Completion Percentage his final season - 55.3%

 

Josh Allen's YPG his final season - 164.7 yards

Tyree Jackson's YPG his final season - 223.6 yards

 

Josh Allen had 16 TD's, averaging 1.45 TD's per game his final season. (28 TD's in 14 games the the prior season)

Tyree Jackson had 28 TD's, averaging 2.0 TD's per game his final season. (12 TD's in 8 games the prior season)

 

Josh Allen threw 6 INT's, averaging 0.54 INT's per game his final season (15 INT's, averaging 1.07 per game the prior season)

Tyree Jackson threw 12 INT's, averaging 0.85 INT's per game his final season (3 INT's, averaging 0.38 per game the prior season)

 

Josh Allen rushed for 204 yards on 92 carries, averaging 2.2 YPA his final season.

Tyree Jackson rushed for 161 yards on 55 carries, averaging 2.9 YPA his final season.

 

Josh Allen rushed for 5 TDs his final season (12 TD's in 2 seasons).

Tyree Jackson rushed for 7 TD's his final season (16 TD's in 3 seasons).

 

Josh Allen was 8-3 as a starter his final season, 8-6 the prior year.

Tyree Jackson was 10-4 as a starter his final season, 5-3 the prior year.

 

Josh Allen's Passer Rating his final season was 127.8, and 144.9 the prior year.

Tyree Jackson's Passer Rating his final season was 136.7, and 148.8 the prior year.

 

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Again, awfully similar in most every category. One of the only other factors to consider is whether you value playing in the MW Conference or the MAC more. Wyoming finished with a 4th overall W/L record at 8-5 in the MWC in 2017, with Allen not leading in a single statistical category in the conference.

 

Buffalo finished with a 1st overall W/L record at 10-4 in the MAC in 2018, with Jackson leading in several major statistical categories in the conference (Ex: Most Passing TD's and Most Passing Yards). He also finished the season as the MAC's Offensive Player of the Year.

 

Anyway... TL;DR - What differences between them were so huge that it lead to a gap in draft position as massive as A) being a top 10 pick in the 1st round and B) being passed over by everyone & signing as an Undrafted Rookie FA? I'm not saying Tyree is as good as Allen, and I'm not saying he's even worthy of being an NFL starter. I just can't see how one is worth the risk based on physical attributes & flashes of great talent, while the other has equally impressive physical attributes and also shows flashes of great talent.

I mean, at least he should be worth a pick in the 4th round based on where Allen was drafted right? At worst, a 5th or 6th rounder... Can you imagine if Josh Allen fell to the 5th or 6th, or simply went undrafted? "Intangibles" can be thrown around to fill in for whatever explanation that doesn't exist for such a weird difference in draft stock, but that should only cover so much. 

On the other hand, I don't know if Jackson had any legal troubles or character doubts that I haven't heard about, but from what I know there wasn't anything noteworthy. So how did one guy profit so much his physical skillset while the other was written off for a very similar one?

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I'm pretty sure the difference is the conference, right? Also, the one stat that really stood out is Jackson throwing twice as many INT's.

 

This power ranking has the MWC ranked 7th out of 10, and the MAC ranked 9th out of 10:  https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2018-college-football-conference-power-rankings-sec-back-on-top-but-where-does-the-big-ten-land/

Edited by MJS
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Though a small piece may be that 6’7 curse for qbs. Seems to not go over well and spook scouts. 

 

Im not saying 2 inches accounts for all but likely is a factor between being 3rd an off the board and whatever went ahead of tyree 

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9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I’d say the answer likely lands on film not on paper

Great point. Allen was all his team had. I haven't watched UB or Jackson, but I suspect he had help where as Allen had none. It required super human effort to elevate his crappy team at Wyoming.

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52 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Tyree had no touch on his throws. He also had much better receivers than JA but still was only marginally better.

 

This might be it.  His release and/or throwing motion might also be an issue.   I think even before the draft, he wasn't ever considered discussed among the prospects likely to go before the sixth or seventh round.   I think I saw one article somewhere calling him a "sleeper pick" or something.

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All I can say is that the 2 best QB's in the 2018 draft were already gone when we selected Allen. It remains to be seen if he's the real deal or just another running QB that can't hit the side of a barn. Many Bills fans simply will not allow themselves to see him as he really is -- Tyrod Taylor v2.0. At least TT made it to the probowl once. I'm getting tired of these QB's we bring in with the same MO (Allen, Taylor, EJ Manuel). I want a QB that throws the ball accurately with good placement on a consistent basis and one that makes quick, correct decisions. If he's a good scrambler, OK, but I really don't much care about that. How many rushing yards does Brady get in a season? 50 maybe? And he's got 6 SB rings.

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I'll bite. I had the opportunity to watch 2 Josh Allen games his last year in college, 1 of them being the bowl game where he flat out dominated and looked like a man playing with boys. I also had the opportunity to see Tyree Jackson 3 times this year, including his bowl game where he looked lost when adversity came and like he was trying way too hard. Similar numbers notwithstanding, Allen was a much better prospect. He looked more poised and under control. Allen looked like he was in charge, in command of that Wyoming team... and Allen had nothing around him. You wouldn't have blamed him for slinging it everywhere and running every other down and trying to do too much. He was all they had, especially in his last year, yet he kept his INTs down to only 6. For as gifted and talented as Tyree is, he looked very wild at times, making far too many bad decisions with the ball, looked very reckless too often, plus he has a very funky, almost unnatural release that has to be refined. He made many incredible plays but he also made tons of head scratching ones where you thought you might have been watching a freshman qb. I was hoping, both for selfish reasons and for his own benefit that he stayed one more year at UB. He could have smoothed out the edges, added seasoning and showed that he wasn't just a physical talent but an exceptional QB who could lead a team and make better decisions with the ball. But to answer your question, they're on different levels and I don't mean right now. I mean Tyree now and Josh last spring. Tyree is a physical specimen learning how to play quarterback. Josh was a young quarterback learning how to become a better quarterback. Josh was just further along in his development than Tyree is now.

 

It also helped Josh's case no doubt that his coach was Carson Wentz' college coach for a few years and he compared the 2 QBs favorably. This was when Wentz was coming off his potential MVP season that ended a few games early due to injury. Having that kind of endorsement and perception definitely helped. That said, I still think someone should've drafted Tyree in the middle rounds or least towards the end of the draft. He looks great on paper and in highlights but the problem with Tyree is that he probably needs 2 seasons before he's ready to play, if he's ever ready to play at the NFL level and most coaches/staffs can't wait that long! For the Bills it's a win-win. They take the kid with local ties that they don't actually need and didn't have to invest anything to get and if he becomes anything or shows potential in a year or two, they can trade him for a pick. 

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1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

Josh Allen was always said to be a "project" QB, with a raw skillset but the physical attributes and athleticism that made him worth drafting on potential alone. Great size & arm strength were constantly noted, as were accuracy issues.

 

On the other hand, Tyree Jackson is said to be the liked for the same reasons. Great size and athleticism, fantastic arm strength, but also inaccurate. They both also faced similar criticisms for facing inferior competition throughout their collegiate careers.


Josh Allen is 6'5 and 240 lbs.

Tyree Jackson is 6'7 and 249 lbs.

 

Josh Allen's hand size is 10 & 1/8 inches.

Tyree Jackson's hand size is 10 & 1/4 inches.


Josh Allen's arms measured at 33 & 1/4 inches.

Tyree Jackson's arms measured at 34 & 1/4 inches.

 

Josh Allen ran a 4.75 second 40 yard dash.

Tyree Jackson ran a 4.59 second 40 yard dash.

 

Josh Allen had a 33.5 inch vertical jump.

Tyree Jackson had a 34.5 inch vertical jump.

 

***************************************************************************************************

 

So in terms of physical attributes, size & athleticism, they both are extremely similar in every way. Now to break down stats a bit:

Josh Allen's Completion Percentage his final season - 56.3%

Tyree Jackson's Completion Percentage his final season - 55.3%

 

Josh Allen's YPG his final season - 164.7 yards

Tyree Jackson's YPG his final season - 223.6 yards

 

Josh Allen had 16 TD's, averaging 1.45 TD's per game his final season. (28 TD's in 14 games the the prior season)

Tyree Jackson had 28 TD's, averaging 2.0 TD's per game his final season. (12 TD's in 8 games the prior season)

 

Josh Allen threw 6 INT's, averaging 0.54 INT's per game his final season (15 INT's, averaging 1.07 per game the prior season)

Tyree Jackson threw 12 INT's, averaging 0.85 INT's per game his final season (3 INT's, averaging 0.38 per game the prior season)

 

Josh Allen rushed for 204 yards on 92 carries, averaging 2.2 YPA his final season.

Tyree Jackson rushed for 161 yards on 55 carries, averaging 2.9 YPA his final season.

 

Josh Allen rushed for 5 TDs his final season (12 TD's in 2 seasons).

Tyree Jackson rushed for 7 TD's his final season (16 TD's in 3 seasons).

 

Josh Allen was 8-3 as a starter his final season, 8-6 the prior year.

Tyree Jackson was 10-4 as a starter his final season, 5-3 the prior year.

 

Josh Allen's Passer Rating his final season was 127.8, and 144.9 the prior year.

Tyree Jackson's Passer Rating his final season was 136.7, and 148.8 the prior year.

 

***************************************************************************************************

 

Again, awfully similar in most every category. One of the only other factors to consider is whether you value playing in the MW Conference or the MAC more. Wyoming finished with a 4th overall W/L record at 8-5 in the MWC in 2017, with Allen not leading in a single statistical category in the conference.

 

Buffalo finished with a 1st overall W/L record at 10-4 in the MAC in 2018, with Jackson leading in several major statistical categories in the conference (Ex: Most Passing TD's and Most Passing Yards). He also finished the season as the MAC's Offensive Player of the Year.

 

Anyway... TL;DR - What differences between them were so huge that it lead to a gap in draft position as massive as A) being a top 10 pick in the 1st round and B) being passed over by everyone & signing as an Undrafted Rookie FA? I'm not saying Tyree is as good as Allen, and I'm not saying he's even worthy of being an NFL starter. I just can't see how one is worth the risk based on physical attributes & flashes of great talent, while the other has equally impressive physical attributes and also shows flashes of great talent.

I mean, at least he should be worth a pick in the 4th round based on where Allen was drafted right? At worst, a 5th or 6th rounder... Can you imagine if Josh Allen fell to the 5th or 6th, or simply went undrafted? "Intangibles" can be thrown around to fill in for whatever explanation that doesn't exist for such a weird difference in draft stock, but that should only cover so much. 

On the other hand, I don't know if Jackson had any legal troubles or character doubts that I haven't heard about, but from what I know there wasn't anything noteworthy. So how did one guy profit so much his physical skillset while the other was written off for a very similar one?


Despite everyone giving you a hard time, this is a really interesting question. Oftentimes, I think a lot of situations of players getting a shot comes down to right place right time. How a team with a  vet near the end of his prime, say Pittsburgh or the Chargers wouldn't bring this kid in and just have a coahc work with him to the side all season is beyond me. If it's allowed, I'd hire a guy on staff specifically to coach this kid to be a pro over the next couple of years just breaking down mechanics, watching tape and running drills. No one ever seems to do that though. In a league that only ever seems to have 15 competent QBs at a time, you'd think they'd invest more in development.

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Jackson has an odd and elongated delivery while Allen's is clean and quick.  That's a small but huge difference.  Also, Jackson had more talent around him while Allen was Wyoming's offense.

Edited by Doc Brown
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