John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

The Alt-Right Bosas can go scratch.

 

Yes, I loved me some Tyrod.  Loved that 3rd round pick we got for his sorry ass.

 

I'm no draft expert, but I do pay attention to what the talking heads say and I do read mocks, etc.  I recall Mahomes being a first-to-second rounder.  I don't recall anyone projecting him going in the top 10.  I also remember everyone being surprised when KC traded up that high for him.

 

And do you really think Lamont Jackson (first rounder) is a franchise QB?  

 

Lamont will be the greatest QB since Chaz Reingold 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

The Alt-Right Bosas can go scratch.

 

Yes, I loved me some Tyrod.  Loved that 3rd round pick we got for his sorry ass.

 

I'm no draft expert, but I do pay attention to what the talking heads say and I do read mocks, etc.  I recall Mahomes being a first-to-second rounder.  I don't recall anyone projecting him going in the top 10.  I also remember everyone being surprised when KC traded up that high for him.

 

And do you really think Lamont Jackson (first rounder) is a franchise QB?  

 

I had three going in the top 10. Even though I personally was much more wary than some others on Mahomes - I could absolutely see why teams loved him and I thought he would be the third off the board no later than the Saints at #11. The one who fell as compared to my expectation was Watson getting to #12. 

 

I was pretty adamament that whole draft season when the talking heads were all - even Mike Mayock - saying "this is not a good class, hard to love any of these guys, frighten you to death if you need one" etc that is was a good class and that the NFL would like it much more than the talking heads and that Trubisky, Watson and Mahomes were all going to go early. 

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

They were in an awful position to make a big turnaround. Still in bad cap shape and committed to the owners to get the cap in terrific shape by this season ... hoping to sit a rookie QB for the season or much of it, and with an offense that they hadn't yet seriously addressed except for bringing in Josh Allen.

 

Last year always looked like it was going to be a bad year. This year they are finally in much better shape to achieve some more wins. 11-12 wins is a ridiculous expectation with a 2nd year QB and an OL that doesn't look to have got a single guy who's played next to the guy on either side of him. But yeah, very reasonable to expect real improvement.

 

Badol means in a great position to make a big turnaround this year. I think most people believe that. They had cap space, on the face of it a decent looking draft and have improved some of the biggest weaknesses. Throw in a decent schedule and some issues at a couple of their divisional rivals and the Bills are well placed to make a jump. 

[eball]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

They probably entered the offseason at a lower point than their 6 wins might indicate.......but it's the NFL.........no reason a 4-6 win team can't turn into an 11-12 win team with a young QB improving and an offseason where they basically lose nobody, sign 18 free agents and draft near the top of each round............they were in a great position to make a big turnaround......we'll see how it goes.  

 

Jesus, this almost smells like optimism.

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, you did say in an earlier post that they had mostly misses on offense ... and it's just as ridiculous a contention now as it was when you said it. It's been debunked a dozen times. A thirteenth isn't necessary for anyone but you but since you're on an infinite loop of repeating nonsense, I guess it won't hurt to point out one more time what makes sense here ... that Beane now has two drafts, and only one of the groups has played so far. And on offense in that draft he picked Josh Allen and nobody else till the fifth round. So far, Wyatt Teller, that fifth rounder, has been a good value.

 

And again, they spent virtually no FA money on offense last year, due to the awful salary cap situation that Beane had committed himself - in his job interview - to cleaning up by the beginning of this season. On defense they spent money and got results in FA. On offense they spent almost no money. For what they spent they actually got a bunch of bargains, Foster, Croom, McKenzie, and a bunch more ... unbelievably cheap and yet productive.

 

And since you're also on nonsense repeat as far as wins, I'll repeat the obvious refutation again as well. The Bills were rebuilding. The first two years of a near-complete rebuild are always going to be awful for wins and losses. Always. Yes, it's possible to win quickly when you bring in a new coach ... if you're not rebuilding. Not a single one of the coaches you bring up here was rebuilding. Not one. All reloads.

 

 

You can choose to give McDermott and Beane a pass because they chose to gut a team -- couldn't find any salvageable talent on the offense -- that had gone 24-24 over the previous 3 seasons, but I'm not.  It wasn't necessary as the spectacular successs of several new HCs who inherited under-achieving teams with worse records than the Bills has shown.    It's just one more poor decision on the part of McDermott and/or Beane.    

 

[eball]

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

You can choose to give McDermott and Beane a pass because they chose to gut a team -- couldn't find any salvageable talent on the offense -- that had gone 24-24 over the previous 3 seasons, but I'm not.  It wasn't necessary as the spectacular successs of several new HCs who inherited under-achieving teams with worse records than the Bills has shown.    It's just one more poor decision on the part of McDermott and/or Beane.    

 

 

What happens in your world if the Bills have a winning record/make the playoffs this season, and become a perennial contender for the next ten years?  At that point do you give McD and Beane a "pass?"  Or are you absolutely convinced that has no chance of happening?  Just curious as to how your mind works...

[BillsVet]

20 hours ago, mannc said:

You’re right, McDermott won’t be fired for passing on one particular player; he’ll ultimately be judged based on how many games he wins.   In the meantime, though, it’s entirely fair for fans and the media to second-guess the decisions he makes along the way, no matter how smart those decisions seemed at the time.

 

That's the crux of what's being debated here (at least in some cases).  McBeane have made enough less than stellar decisions to cause concern that their "process" isn't all it's been advertised to be.  Plenty of people seem willing to forget the bad moves in 2017-18 because they spent big dollars on UFAs in 2019. 

 

For all the plaudits McCoach receives for defense, his offensive decision making is at best suspect.  And both he and Beane will be even more under the gun if Allen doesn't improve tremendously in year 2.   

 

The jury's out on McBeane.  By no means have they proven anything in Buffalo as a HC and GM.  They need to make the playoffs in year 3 or it's been a waste of time. 

[thebandit27]

9 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

And let me guess ... when it happened, you were yelling, "NOOOOO!!!!!!  The Chiefs just got a QB who's going to win the MVP in his first year starting!!!!!" at the TV, right?

 

No.

 

If you take out "in his first year starting" that was literally my reaction 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Relax guy.... the Chiefs obviously did. They took him at 10.?

 

 

And they felt like they had to get to 10 for a very good reason. Sean Payton loved him and was taking him at #11 if he got there.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

Jesus, this almost smells like optimism.

 

 

It's more like the understanding that there are no more excuses.

 

You don't often have two years to establish yourself and then an offseason with no free agents and $80M to spend and high draft picks in each round.

 

That alone is a SET UP for a big turnaround.

 

And as @GunnerBill said there are other aspects in their favor..........the schedule........two teams in their division starting over with new HC's.............this season should definitively answer all or nearly all of the McBeane questions.

 

[SoTier]

8 minutes ago, eball said:

 

What happens in your world if the Bills have a winning record/make the playoffs this season, and become a perennial contender for the next ten years?  At that point do you give McD and Beane a "pass?"  Or are you absolutely convinced that has no chance of happening?  Just curious as to how your mind works...

 

I'll gladly eat my crow if that happens because I'd love nothing better than the Bills to reprise their "Glory Years". 

 

Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen, even if Allen becomes a true franchise QB, with McDermott as HC.  I can see Allen becoming a QB somewhat like Matthew Stafford --- very talented but "never winning anything" simply because the coaching he gets and the team around him are never quite good enough to win a lot of games despite his individual heroics.  I think that McDermott is entirely too conservative in his mind set to have sustained success as a HC in today's NFL.  Defense may win championships but a team can't sniff a championship without having an offense that can run with the big dogs at least most of the time.   Beane, at least so far, seems to favor the big risk, big reward scenario, taking chances on signing a FA like Morse with a history of concussions or going all in on a first round QB from a small school with tons of physical talent but in serious need of lots of molding to become a good NFL QB.  If his gambles work out, he's golden, but unfortunately, individual gamblers seldom come out ahead in the long run, whether they're playing Texas Hold 'Em or betting the ponies.

[eball]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's more like the understanding that there are no more excuses.

 

You don't often have two years to establish yourself and then an offseason with no free agents and $80M to spend and high draft picks in each round.

 

That alone is a SET UP for a big turnaround.

 

And as @GunnerBill said there are other aspects in their favor..........the schedule........two teams in their division starting over with new HC's.............this season should definitively answer all or nearly all of the McBeane questions.

 

 

I'll give you credit for one thing.  You've managed to shift the conversation so that if the Bills are successful you'll now be able to point to this post and say "see, I told you so.  Any team given these advantages should have done it."

 

Well done. 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

I'll give you credit for one thing.  You've managed to shift the conversation so that if the Bills are successful you'll now be able to point to this post and say "see, I told you so.  Any team given these advantages should have done it."

 

Well done. 

 

 

 

No turning necessary.............I've maintained all along that I expect them to have a winning season this year.

 

My issues with McBeane are that I haven't liked a lot of their personnel decisions(mostly on the pro side) and their rationale for making them............and in most of those cases I've been proven right...........and I haven't been impressed with the game day work by McDermott.    

 

You just perceive everything as critical because all you really care about are the things I have expressed negativity about.

 

Meanwhile I had Tre White as the top CB in the 2017 draft so I loved that player.............big fan of the Allen pick for MANY reasons...........really liked the Edmunds pick and I really like Ed Oliver.      

[eball]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

You just perceive everything as critical because all you really care about are the things I have expressed negativity about.

 

Nah.  Opinions are one thing.  Belittling those who don't agree with one's opinions is another.

[Royale with Cheese]

If anyone ever needed an example of SoTier's arguments being all over the place...these replies are his....on the same page!

 

He said he didn't include first year HC's (it apparently was my stipulation).  Clearly that's the case right?

Edited June 25, 2019 by Royale with Cheese

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

If anyone ever needed an example of SoTier's arguments being all over the place...these replies are of his are on the same page!

 

He said he didn't include first year HC's (it apparently was my stipulation).  Clearly that's the case right?

It's striking, isn't it?

[oldmanfan]

41 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I'll gladly eat my crow if that happens because I'd love nothing better than the Bills to reprise their "Glory Years". 

 

Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen, even if Allen becomes a true franchise QB, with McDermott as HC.  I can see Allen becoming a QB somewhat like Matthew Stafford --- very talented but "never winning anything" simply because the coaching he gets and the team around him are never quite good enough to win a lot of games despite his individual heroics.  I think that McDermott is entirely too conservative in his mind set to have sustained success as a HC in today's NFL.  Defense may win championships but a team can't sniff a championship without having an offense that can run with the big dogs at least most of the time.   Beane, at least so far, seems to favor the big risk, big reward scenario, taking chances on signing a FA like Morse with a history of concussions or going all in on a first round QB from a small school with tons of physical talent but in serious need of lots of molding to become a good NFL QB.  If his gambles work out, he's golden, but unfortunately, individual gamblers seldom come out ahead in the long run, whether they're playing Texas Hold 'Em or betting the ponies.

Would you accept a team like, say, the 85 Bears that won with a dominant defense, or the Broncos recently that won with a severely depleted Peyton?  Would that be an acceptable outcome?  Because I'd hate to think that we would have to win a SB only in an acceptable fashion to celebrate.

[BADOLBILZ]

52 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Nah.  Opinions are one thing.  Belittling those who don't agree with one's opinions is another.

 

 

Nah?   Talk about moving the goal posts..........that literally is a response to nothing I said.

[Magox]

During the College football season before the 2017 draft the QB that I liked the most was Trubisky, that was before there was even talk of him.  He was a first year starter for Carolina and no one really knew anything about him.  I am a huge Carolina fan so I watched all the games and I thought his accuracy, mobility and competitiveness was going to translate well into the NFL.    That was my guy.  I was never really big on Deshaun Watson, I just didn't think he had the vision to see the entire field and their coaches have done a superb job in simplifying the offense and field of vision and he has exceeded any expectation that I have ever had for him.   Mahomes, I knew very little about and months before the draft I began seeing all his film, the cannon arm and the ability to make these tremendous throws and by about 2 months before the draft, he was the guy that I liked the most.  I really got on the Mahomes bandwagon and I remember here on TBD that it was a polarizing topic because there were a few guys that really liked him me being one of them and then a lot of people who thought his footwork and rawness was too risky for him to be a first round choice.  I was hoping that the Bills would select him.  

 

I completely understand why they didn't.  McD was not going to trust Whaley's evaluation on QB's as his track record didn't warrant it and McD being a coach and not a GM quality talent evaluator was going to select what he felt most comfortable with, someone from defense a DB.  He got the DB that he wanted, the sort of player that he could build his defense around and pick up an additional first rounder which helped land Allen.   Obviously, hindsight says that Mahomes looks as if that should have been the pick but if Allen pans out, then the decision ultimately will work out.

[dave mcbride]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't know about "disaster"...........but a -105 point differential typically indicates that you performed more at the level of a 4-5 win team.

 

It wasn't a pretty season.........Josh Allen turning into an unexpected 100 yard rushing force probably skewed the team success but nobody thinks THAT is sustainable or should even be tried again.

 

They probably entered the offseason at a lower point than their 6 wins might indicate.......but it's the NFL.........no reason a 4-6 win team can't turn into an 11-12 win team with a young QB improving and an offseason where they basically lose nobody, sign 18 free agents and draft near the top of each round............they were in a great position to make a big turnaround......we'll see how it goes.  

 

 

This is correct. The Bills' Pythagorean record last year (as per PFR) was 5.0-11.0. They were basically worse than their record.

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

This is correct. The Bills' Pythagorean record last year (as per PFR) was 5.0-11.0. They were basically worse than their record.

The differential was skewed by a couple games where they got blown out.  The NFL measures success and failure by wins and losses, not point differentials.  That said, the blowouts need to stop because it's more a reflection on coaching ability and ability to make in game corrections.