John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[K-9]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yeah, he was my #1 overall pick in 2017.

I find it interesting that you pounded the table for him and yet I can’t recall a single, snarky “I told you so” from you when he broke out last year while, conversely, this place is full of people who never pounded the table for Mahomes before the draft, yet act like they did while spewing an criticism towards those who were against picking him. Funny place, this. 

[SoTier]

23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re just a hater!!!! McBeane = really good on defensive personnel moves. McBeane = pretty terrible on offensive personnel moves so far. 

 

Exactly this.  Whether it's coaches or draft picks or trades or FA signings, McDermott and Beane have been consistently poor at evaluating the offensive talent; they miss far more than they hit while it's just the opposite on the defensive side.  That's not a good omen for a team in the modern NFL where offense is the name of the game.

 

7 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

You're really going to hold it against him that a 5th round QB didn't work out?  He deserves to be criticized for playing him too much; but not for the pick.

 

Peterman "didn't work out" because McDermott failed to recognize that he was, at best, a backup QB, and treated him like he was a potential starter.  My guess is that McDermott didn't watch much of Peterman's game footage.  That fifth round pick could have been used on a kid who could play ST or RB or LB or DB or whatever, and the Bills could have just signed an UDFA QB to throw pick sixes if they just had to have a QB in the 2017 draft.

 

 

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

Exactly this.  Whether it's coaches or draft picks or trades or FA signings, McDermott and Beane have been consistently poor at evaluating the offensive talent; they miss far more than they hit while it's just the opposite on the defensive side.  That's not a good omen for a team in the modern NFL where offense is the name of the game.

 

 

Peterman "didn't work out" because McDermott failed to recognize that he was, at best, a backup QB, and treated him like he was a potential starter.  My guess is that McDermott didn't watch much of Peterman's game footage.  That fifth round pick could have been used on a kid who could play ST or RB or LB or DB or whatever, and the Bills could have just signed an UDFA QB to throw pick sixes if they just had to have a QB in the 2017 draft.

 

 

 

You're really grasping at straws to criticize McDermott.  We're talking about a 5th round pick.

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I find it interesting that you pounded the table for him and yet I can’t recall a single, snarky “I told you so” from you when he broke out last year while, conversely, this place is full of people who never pounded the table for Mahomes before the draft, yet act like they did while spewing an criticism towards those who were against picking him. Funny place, this. 

 

Well, I've said it in my head a whole bunch...

 

 

Seriously though, I did have to set one or two people straight...there were a few super-boisterous "I TOLD YOU SO" types, so I did have to do a bit of "where the heck were you?" stuff.

 

In general though, I don't do I-told-you-so's until the guy gets a SB ring or a gold jacket; things can change so darn fast in the NFL.

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I find it interesting that you pounded the table for him and yet I can’t recall a single, snarky “I told you so” from you when he broke out last year while, conversely, this place is full of people who never pounded the table for Mahomes before the draft, yet act like they did while spewing an criticism towards those who were against picking him. Funny place, this. 

Guess what?  It doesn't matter who "pounded the table" for Mahomes and who didn't; no one on this board gets paid to make personnel decisions for the Buffalo Bills and we all reserve the right to criticize any and all decisions the front office makes, regardless how popular said decisions were at the time. 

 

I liked the 2017 trade down with KC at the time it was made, but that doesn't mean I can't criticize McDermott now for passing on Watson and Mahomes.  Even if every fan in the world and every ESPN talking head loved the trade down at the time it was made, it was mistake, and the people who made that mistake should be held accountable for it.  The only thing that can save them from the consequences of that mistake is if Josh Allen develops into a franchise QB.  Stay tuned...        

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I think it's the opposite, it's all about talent.  Look at how many teams over the years never won, the team gets a new GM, fixes the roster and they start winning.  A few examples, NY Giants, from the early 60's to around 1980, lose every year, bring in George Young, they start winning, NY Mets, bring in Frank Cashen in the early 80's and they turn around years of losing.  Detroit Red Wings were bad from around 1960 till they brought in a new GM, think it was around 1990 or so, then started winning again. 

 

A couple close to home, Marv Levy went to 4 straight Super Bowls, admittedly never won any, but 4 straight has never been done by anyone else.  Does that make him the greatest coach of all time. I wouldn't put him in the top 10 and if I thought some more, probably not even the top 20.  Scotty Bowman won 4 Stanley Cups in Montreal as coach, but he wanted to be the GM too so comes to Buffalo, roster was made over twice in the years he was here, but they never came close to winning the Cup. If it's all about coaching how could he not have won?

 

There are a couple of exceptions like NE where they have never had that much overall talent, but even there could argue he does have the best QB in the league.  I do think coaching may get you a couple more wins each year in the NFL, and will agree you typically need top level coaching to win it all, (likely the Bills problem in the 90's) but without the players you won't go anywhere.  In the case of poor talent coaching may not even generate any additional wins, just makes them play better.

All your examples are before free agency rules and salary cap.  In that rea it WAS possible to win in the NFL on talent.  I think the Lelly Bill's are, as you say, the perfect example.  But that hasn't been true for the last 20 years, except for the Seahawks, who hit some draft home runs that let them succeed for a few years with superior talent.  That is not a good strategy for building a winning franchise - that strategy requires that a Russell Wilson fall into your lap so you can get great QB play at bargain basement prices.  

 

Bill Belichick, Andy Reid and Sean Payton say hello.  Their talent keeps changing and they keep winning.  Reid won with Alex Smith, so don't say it's all about the QB.  

 

We're about to find out what kind of coaching skill the Bill's have. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

When, exactly, does McDermott stop getting passes for his mistakes because he "corrected" them? 

• McDermott hired Dennison but that's okay because he was replaced after a year. 
• McDermott hired Castillo but that's okay because he was replaced after two years.
• McDermott hired David Culley to be the Bills QB coach despite never being a QB in the NFL but that's okay because he left after two years, and the Bills hired a QB coach with actual experience as a QB coach, Ken Dorsey.
• McDermott passed on a first round QB in 2017 but that's okay because Tre White has been good and Mahomes or Watson wouldn't have been nearly as good with the Bills.
• McDermott wasted a pick on Nathan Peterman  but that's okay because he's gone now despite having single-handedly lost 3 games of the handful of games in which he played.

 

In regards to the coaching changes, no HC starts with his ideal staff.  Most of the guys a new HC wants are already under contract with another team.   So you grab who you can until you can get who you want.  

 

In regards to the picks, do you believe McD is actually running the Bills draft?   Personally I believe our GM is running drafts and no GM is mistake-free.

 

Anyway, you don't total up the number of mistakes when grading a HC.  You total up the wins.  You look at the roster and ask: Is the coach optimizing his win total with the roster he's been given?

 

Last year, the Bills fielded the lowest paid - and arguably, worst talented - roster in the NFL.  Yet we didn't have the worst record.  McD's win totals are exceeding the roster talent.   So far, I'm giving McD a passing grade.  

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

Guess what?  It doesn't matter who "pounded the table" for Mahomes and who didn't; no one on this board gets paid to make personnel decisions for the Buffalo Bills and we all reserve the right to criticize any and all decisions the front office makes,   Even if every fan in the world and every ESPN talking head loved the trade down at the time it was made, it was mistake, and the people who made that mistake should be held accountable for it. 

I hate this "held accountable" stuff.  How should McDermott be held accountable?  Should he be fired because he didn't draft Mahomes?

 

Head coaches get fired because they aren't successful over time. What qualifies as success and how much time they get is determined by the owner.  One thing is sure: none of them gets fired for one mistake.  

 

Not drafting Mahomes is one decision out of thousands that gets tossed on the scales when McDermott's performance is weighed. 

 

I expect that five years from now the narrative will be that two teams each got a great QB as the result of one trade. 

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I hate this "held accountable" stuff.  How should McDermott be held accountable?  Should he be fired because he didn't draft Mahomes?

 

Head coaches get fired because they aren't successful over time. What qualifies as success and how much time they get is determined by the owner.  One thing is sure: none of them gets fired for one mistake.  

 

Not drafting Mahomes is one decision out of thousands that gets tossed on the scales when McDermott's performance is weighed. 

 

I expect that five years from now the narrative will be that two teams each got a great QB as the result of one trade. 

You’re right, McDermott won’t be fired for passing on one particular player; he’ll ultimately be judged based on how many games he wins.   In the meantime, though, it’s entirely fair for fans and the media to second-guess the decisions he makes along the way, no matter how smart those decisions seemed at the time.

[Rico]

23 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Well, I've said it in my head a whole bunch...

 

 

Seriously though, I did have to set one or two people straight...there were a few super-boisterous "I TOLD YOU SO" types, so I did have to do a bit of "where the heck were you?" stuff.

 

In general though, I don't do I-told-you-so's until the guy gets a SB ring or a gold jacket; things can change so darn fast in the NFL.

Yep, things can change real fast, even starting this year. 

 

Josh Allen may begin separating himself from the pack, displaying superior leadership and may just want to win more... perhaps even eventually go on to earn a ring.   

 

Mahomes may continue to put up big numbers, but never completely get the job done in January, let alone February.  

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Rico said:

 

Mahomes may continue to put up big numbers, but never completely get the job done in January, let alone February.  

 

Ah, you mean like an Andy Reid Quarterback?

[K-9]

34 minutes ago, mannc said:

Guess what?  It doesn't matter who "pounded the table" for Mahomes and who didn't; no one on this board gets paid to make personnel decisions for the Buffalo Bills and we all reserve the right to criticize any and all decisions the front office makes, regardless how popular said decisions were at the time. 

 

I liked the 2017 trade down with KC at the time it was made, but that doesn't mean I can't criticize McDermott now for passing on Watson and Mahomes.  Even if every fan in the world and every ESPN talking head loved the trade down at the time it was made, it was mistake, and the people who made that mistake should be held accountable for it.  The only thing that can save them from the consequences of that mistake is if Josh Allen develops into a franchise QB.  Stay tuned...        

More power to you. 

 

I don't object at all to criticism of the Bills front office as they've made their share of gaffes and questionable decisions. But I draw the line at using fantasy suppositions and biased projections onto totally fictitious events being used to support that criticism. 

[Rico]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Ah, you mean like an Andy Reid Quarterback?

Well, that certainly doesn’t help him, now does it. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

26 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

All your examples are before free agency rules and salary cap.  In that rea it WAS possible to win in the NFL on talent.  I think the Lelly Bill's are, as you say, the perfect example.  But that hasn't been true for the last 20 years, except for the Seahawks, who hit some draft home runs that let them succeed for a few years with superior talent.  That is not a good strategy for building a winning franchise - that strategy requires that a Russell Wilson fall into your lap so you can get great QB play at bargain basement prices.  

 

Bill Belichick, Andy Reid and Sean Payton say hello.  Their talent keeps changing and they keep winning.  Reid won with Alex Smith, so don't say it's all about the QB.  

 

We're about to find out what kind of coaching skill the Bill's have. 

 

Yeah so what, it still about talent regardless of how you acquire it.  In fact could argue  even more important now as if you screw up on FA signing, the cap hit can mess you up for the next few years.

 

In the case of Payton, he won the Super Bowl was it around 2010, since then hasn't been back and had some years they didn't make the playoffs 7-9 three years in a row and 4 out of 5.  Last year was much better and should have been i n the Super Bowl, why, because he finally got some talent on the defensive side.  I'll grant you Bellichick is the exception, but still question what would he have done without Brady.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

In regards to the coaching changes, no HC starts with his ideal staff.  Most of the guys a new HC wants are already under contract with another team.   So you grab who you can until you can get who you want.  

 

In regards to the picks, do you believe McD is actually running the Bills draft?   Personally I believe our GM is running drafts and no GM is mistake-free.

 

Anyway, you don't total up the number of mistakes when grading a HC.  You total up the wins.  You look at the roster and ask: Is the coach optimizing his win total with the roster he's been given?

 

Last year, the Bills fielded the lowest paid - and arguably, worst talented - roster in the NFL.  Yet we didn't have the worst record.  McD's win totals are exceeding the roster talent.   So far, I'm giving McD a passing grade.  

 

Well, lucky for the Bills Denver grabbed Mike McCoy before the Bills.  IIRC, he was rumored to be McDermott's first choice for OC.

 

And yes, McDermott pretty much ran the 2017 draft as Whaley was a lame duck who was fired immediatedly after the draft.  Beane wasn't hired until May or June 2017.   Furthermore, Beane doesn't come from a player-personnel (scouting) background, so  if you don't believe McDermott has considerable say in who the team keeps, gets rid of, or brings in, you are lying to yourself.   As I said in a previous post, McDermott and Beane have mostly hits on defense but they have had mostly misses on offense.  They failed to hire an additional coach with actual experience coaching QBs despite spending a fortune in draft picks and talent to move up to grab Josh Allen.

 

McDermott doesn't get a pass from me because his team won more games than the Cardinals and a few other bottom feeder teams in 2018.   That's a pretty low bar to set for a team, not being the worst team in the league.  McDermott's Bills squads  were -54 in point differential in 2017 and -105 in 2018.  While they were 2nd in yards given up, the Bills were 32nd in red zone defense and 18th in scoring defense.  They were blown out (lost by 20 or more points) 4 times in 2017, and 4 more times in 2018, avoiding a 5th blow out lost to the Chargers when Anthony Lynn took his foot off the accelerator with his team up 28-6 at the half.  

 

McDermott took the 15-17 team he inherited to 9-7 and a wild card playoff berth in 2017 and a 6-10 disaster in 2018.  Meanwhile, other new HCs in 2017 like Anthony Lynn took the formerly 9-23 Chargers to 9-7 in 2017 and 12-4 and a playoff win in 2018.   Sean McVay took the formerly 11-21 Rams to 11-5 in 2017 with a wild card playoff berth and then 13-3 and a SB loss in 2018. 

 

In fact, winning early seems to be a very likely scenario if the HC has the goods -- and that's not necessarily a totally new phenomenon.  While Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Eagles in his second season as HC in 2017, and Matt Nagy took the 5-11 Bears from 2017 and turned them into a 12-4 playoff team in 2018, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick also won SBs in their second seasons with the Ravens and Pats in 2000 and 2001 respectively.  Tom Coughlin took the 10-22 Giants to 11-5 and a playoff berth in his second season in 2005.   A couple of years later, he spoiled the Pats' undefeated season.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by SoTier

[Royale with Cheese]

20 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Well, lucky for the Bills Denver grabbed Mike McCoy before the Bills.  IIRC, he was rumored to be McDermott's first choice for OC.

 

And yes, McDermott pretty much ran the 2017 draft as Whaley was a lame duck who was fired immediatedly after the draft.  Beane wasn't hired until May or June 2017.   Furthermore, Beane doesn't come from a player-personnel (scouting) background, so  if you don't believe McDermott has considerable say in who the team keeps, gets rid of, or brings in, you are lying to yourself.   As I said in a previous post, McDermott and Beane have mostly hits on defense but they have had mostly misses on offense.  They failed to hire an additional coach with actual experience coaching QBs despite spending a fortune in draft picks and talent to move up to grab Josh Allen.

 

McDermott doesn't get a pass from me because his team won more games than the Cardinals and a few other bottom feeder teams in 2018.   That's a pretty low bar to set for a team, not being the worst team in the league.  McDermott's Bills squads  were -54 in point differential in 2017 and -105 in 2018.  While they were 2nd in yards given up, the Bills were 32nd in red zone defense and 18th in scoring defense.  They were blown out (lost by 20 or more points) 4 times in 2017, and 4 more times in 2018, avoiding a 5th blow out lost to the Chargers when Anthony Lynn took his foot off the accelerator with his team up 28-6 at the half.  

 

McDermott took the 15-17 team he inherited to 9-7 and a wild card playoff berth in 2017 and a 6-10 disaster in 2018.  Meanwhile, other new HCs in 2017 like Anthony Lynn took the formerly 9-23 Chargers to 9-7 in 2017 and 12-4 and a playoff win in 2018.   Sean McVay took the formerly 11-21 Rams to 11-5 in 2017 with a wild card playoff berth and then 13-3 and a SB loss in 2018. 

 

In fact, winning early seems to be a very likely scenario if the HC has the goods -- and that's not necessarily a totally new phenomenon.  While Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Eagles in his second season as HC in 2017, and Matt Nagy took the 5-11 Bears from 2017 and turned them into a 12-4 playoff team in 2018, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick also won SBs in their second seasons with the Ravens and Pats in 2000 and 2001 respectively.  Tom Coughlin took the 10-22 Giants to 11-5 and a playoff berth in his second season in 2005.   A couple of years later, he spoiled the Pats' undefeated season.

 

 

You know your Bill Belichick example actually hurts you.....he was fired from the Browns because they weren't winning.  Bill wasn't winning early.

Bill didn't win until he got Brady because with Bledsoe....he was 5-13 as the Pats coach before Brady.

It's a lot easier to win when you have a QB huh?

 

Also, every situation and scenario is different.  There are coaches who didn't win early who won later....like Bill Belichick.  

Edited June 24, 2019 by Royale with Cheese

[oldmanfan]

23 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Well, lucky for the Bills Denver grabbed Mike McCoy before the Bills.  IIRC, he was rumored to be McDermott's first choice for OC.

 

And yes, McDermott pretty much ran the 2017 draft as Whaley was a lame duck who was fired immediatedly after the draft.  Beane wasn't hired until May or June 2017.   Furthermore, Beane doesn't come from a player-personnel (scouting) background, so  if you don't believe McDermott has considerable say in who the team keeps, gets rid of, or brings in, you are lying to yourself.   As I said in a previous post, McDermott and Beane have mostly hits on defense but they have had mostly misses on offense.  They failed to hire an additional coach with actual experience coaching QBs despite spending a fortune in draft picks and talent to move up to grab Josh Allen.

 

McDermott doesn't get a pass from me because his team won more games than the Cardinals and a few other bottom feeder teams in 2018.   That's a pretty low bar to set for a team, not being the worst team in the league.  McDermott's Bills squads  were -54 in point differential in 2017 and -105 in 2018.  While they were 2nd in yards given up, the Bills were 32nd in red zone defense and 18th in scoring defense.  They were blown out (lost by 20 or more points) 4 times in 2017, and 4 more times in 2018, avoiding a 5th blow out lost to the Chargers when Anthony Lynn took his foot off the accelerator with his team up 28-6 at the half.  

 

McDermott took the 15-17 team he inherited to 9-7 and a wild card playoff berth in 2017 and a 6-10 disaster in 2018.  Meanwhile, other new HCs in 2017 like Anthony Lynn took the formerly 9-23 Chargers to 9-7 in 2017 and 12-4 and a playoff win in 2018.   Sean McVay took the formerly 11-21 Rams to 11-5 in 2017 with a wild card playoff berth and then 13-3 and a SB loss in 2018. 

 

In fact, winning early seems to be a very likely scenario if the HC has the goods -- and that's not necessarily a totally new phenomenon.  While Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Eagles in his second season as HC in 2017, and Matt Nagy took the 5-11 Bears from 2017 and turned them into a 12-4 playoff team in 2018, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick also won SBs in their second seasons with the Ravens and Pats in 2000 and 2001 respectively.  Tom Coughlin took the 10-22 Giants to 11-5 and a playoff berth in his second season in 2005.   A couple of years later, he spoiled the Pats' undefeated season.

 

6-10 isn't a disaster.  Disappointing but understandable breaking in a rookieQB.  Your hyperbole gets ridiculous.  You want disaster call a Giants fan.

[teef]

i'm just going to stop by in this thread and stretch my legs a little.  

[eball]

@SoTier I have one simple question (and follow up) for you:

 

What, in particular, are you trying to get Bills fans to admit?  And why?

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I get that, but at the margins points scored and allowed depends to an extent on field position starts, ST play, turnovers given up or causes by the other unit, etc. And then there’s strength of schedule — not every team is lucky enough to be the Patriots and get an automatic 6 games against perpetually inferior organizations.   DVOA does a good job of washing away all that noise, which is why I like it.

 

 

It's good no doubt.......but do you think the Bills were the second best defense in the NFL last year?    AHEAD of Baltimore?  That Baltimore defense was suffocating.    The Bills defense was very good with a long field to defend and not very good in the red zone.    To me that indicates a defense that can't get into the backfield when it needs to...........a red flag for a defense that DVOA and yardage say was #2 overall.