John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

See, I was going to agree with most of your post but then you have add this garbage.  What a tool think to add.  If you honestly believe I want the Bills to fail, go make love to yourself.  

He didn't say that you wanted failure, just that you expect it.  Anyone that reads your posts would come to the same conclusion.  

[eball]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

See, I was going to agree with most of your post but then you have add this garbage.  What a tool think to add.  If you honestly believe I want the Bills to fail, go make love to yourself.  

 

I didn't say you hope they fail.  I said you have the attitude that you're expecting it.  There's a huge difference.  I know you're a fan.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Perhaps you should read some of the projections people have made then. How’s 35 TDs and second to Andy Luck in the AFC? Again, without the multiple Pro Bowlers he had in KC or Reid’s skill as an OC. 

 

As to the rest of it, please provide a proof source to back your claim that Mahomes would have flourished in Buffalo? Feel free to use a time machine so he will be drafted by us and also be able to have Hill, Kelce, Hunt as Pro Bowl skill players as well as making Reid our coach and OC. 

 

 

1) Hunt missed the last 7 games.  Hill and Kelce both had their career high in yards by 300. 

 

2) Mahomes probably would have benefited from playing with a defense ranked 2nd (us) than one ranked 31st.  

 

3) maybe the reason Reid took Mahomes, and this is crazy, is because he’s really good! 

[mannc]

Just now, K-9 said:

Perhaps you should read some of the projections people have made then. How’s 35 TDs and second to Andy Luck in the AFC? Again, without the multiple Pro Bowlers he had in KC or Reid’s skill as an OC. 

 

As to the rest of it, please provide a proof source to back your claim that Mahomes would have flourished in Buffalo? Feel free to use a time machine so he will be drafted by us and also be able to have Hill, Kelce, Hunt as Pro Bowl skill players as well as making Reid our coach and OC. 

 

 

As I've said previously in this thread, this is as bad a take as there will ever be on TSW.  Under this theory, we can never compare players from different teams, because every team is different--simply an absurd premise.   

 

Mahomes has proven that he's a great young QB.  He had outstanding weapons his first year as a starter in KC and he practically re-wrote the record book.  I have no idea what numbers he would have put up in Buffalo, but I know that he would still be a great QB here.  If that's not enough to "flourish" in McDermott's and Daboll's system, then we need to tear it up and start all over again.  

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Gotta be careful when you play the stats game...

 

Allen's Week 17 stat line as a rookie in a meaningless game:

17/26, 224 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 9 rushes, 95 yards, 2 TDs

 

Mahomes' Week 17 stat line as a rookie in a meaningless game:

22/35, 284 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 7 rushes, 10 yards, 0 TDs

It was Mahomes first career start against a 3rd ranked Denver defense.  It was Allen’s 11 start against a 29th Miami defense.

 

this isn’t even putting Allen down.  It’s just showing how good and special Mahomes is.  

[SoTier]

21 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Dennison was a bad hire.  McD corrected his mistake after 2017.

 

With respect to Daboll -- how can anyone possibly evaluate him after last season, good or bad?  He had to start the season with Peterman at QB.  His OL was crappy all season.  Benjamin was a joke.  He then had a raw rookie QB.  If anything he deserves a pass for last year.  And while we're talking about 2017 -- did you not see marked improvement in the offense over the 2nd half of the season?  Does Daboll receive no credit for that?

 

When, exactly, does McDermott stop getting passes for his mistakes because he "corrected" them? 

• McDermott hired Dennison but that's okay because he was replaced after a year. 
• McDermott hired Castillo but that's okay because he was replaced after two years.
• McDermott hired David Culley to be the Bills QB coach despite never being a QB in the NFL but that's okay because he left after two years, and the Bills hired a QB coach with actual experience as a QB coach, Ken Dorsey.
• McDermott passed on a first round QB in 2017 but that's okay because Tre White has been good and Mahomes or Watson wouldn't have been nearly as good with the Bills.
• McDermott wasted a pick on Nathan Peterman  but that's okay because he's gone now despite having single-handedly lost 3 games of the handful of games in which he played.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

When, exactly, does McDermott stop getting passes for his mistakes because he "corrected" them? 

• McDermott hired Dennison but that's okay because he was replaced after a year. 
• McDermott hired Castillo but that's okay because he was replaced after two years.
• McDermott hired David Culley to be the Bills QB coach despite never being a QB in the NFL but that's okay because he left after two years, and the Bills hired a QB coach with actual experience as a QB coach, Ken Dorsey.
• McDermott passed on a first round QB in 2017 but that's okay because Tre White has been good and Mahomes or Watson wouldn't have been nearly as good with the Bills.
• McDermott wasted a pick on Nathan Peterman  but that's okay because he's gone now despite having single-handedly lost 3 games of the handful of games in which he played.

You’re just a hater!!!! McBeane = really good on defensive personnel moves. McBeane = pretty terrible on offensive personnel moves so far. 

[eball]

4 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

When, exactly, does McDermott stop getting passes for his mistakes because he "corrected" them? 

 

 

I think that's a silly question.  The concern would be if McD didn't recognize mistakes.  Everybody has to learn on the job.

[billsintaiwan]

How the ***** is this disheveled thread still alive?

[oldmanfan]

23 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

 

As far as any Allen comparisons go, what I want most is that he has a better season than Darnold and Rosen; and is as good/better than Mayfield.  That'll make me happy.

Agreed

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

5 minutes ago, billsintaiwan said:

How the ***** is this disheveled thread still alive?

 

Ppl like you keep bumping it asking this question. 

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

Ppl like you keep bumping it asking this question. 

It’s like the guy who goes in a thread to say who cares?

[Gugny]

17 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

When, exactly, does McDermott stop getting passes for his mistakes because he "corrected" them? 

• McDermott wasted a pick on Nathan Peterman  but that's okay because he's gone now despite having single-handedly lost 3 games of the handful of games in which he played.

 

You're really going to hold it against him that a 5th round QB didn't work out?  He deserves to be criticized for playing him too much; but not for the pick.

[thebandit27]

11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

It was Mahomes first career start against a 3rd ranked Denver defense.  It was Allen’s 11 start against a 29th Miami defense.

 

this isn’t even putting Allen down.  It’s just showing how good and special Mahomes is.  

 

I didn't say you were putting Allen down.  I said that you have to be careful with the stats game...for a lot of reasons...

 

1) Details matter.

 

That "3rd ranked" Denver defense allowed 23.9 PPG in 2017; only 7 teams allowed more.  By the way, the Tyrod-lead Bills scored more points against that same defense in Week 3 than Mahomes' Chiefs in Week 17.  Also worth noting are the snap counts for Denver's defensive stars in that game:

Talib - 10

Harris - 15

Miller - 33

 

All season-lows

 

2) Are you implying that experience makes a difference when evaluating a player?  I agree.  In fact, the biggest difference a player will ever experience is the difference between his first NFL offseason (which happens after the draft) and his first real NFL offsesaon (which happens after his first season).  Once a rookie actually reaches the end of his first season, he's been in "season mode" for almost 17 months.  He's gone from college pre-season in August through the bowl season in January, then into draft prep, combine, visits, workouts, etc. through April. Then, just a week or two later, he's already in rookie minicamp, followed by OTAs, minicamp, and a 6 week break to get his life in order before his first training camp.

 

Forget the toll that takes on your body, what about the stress on your mind?  It's no wonder that guys like Goff and Trubisky (and, to a lesser extent, Wentz) can go from looking utterly lost as rookies to looking like franchise QBs in year 2.

 

I don't say all this to say that you're wrong to be skeptical of Allen, or that he's going to be as good as Mahomes.  What I am saying, however, is that comparing the two of them based upon their respective NFL bodies of work is apples-to-oranges at this point.

[SoTier]

25 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Whether you're seeing it or not, the Bills' offense made considerable strides forward as the season progressed.  Daboll deserves credit for that, working with a rookie QB and terrible OL.  There is literally no comparison between the 1st and 2nd half of last season on that side of the ball.

 

I tend to not get bogged down in what coaches did early in their careers unless there is some blatantly obvious pattern.  Daboll is still a relatively young guy and has gotten a lot of experience around super head coaches (BB, Saban).  I was encouraged by his willingness to adapt last season, and it looks like he seriously considers what his QB and players do well (and enjoy) in crafting strategy for games.

 

I guess the difference between you and me is that I'm excited and looking forward to what Daboll can do with the new tools he has been given, while you're just holding your breath waiting for (and expecting) failure.

 

Josh Allen looked much better after he returned from his elbow injury, but I'm not sure what makes you believe the offense "progressed".  Maybe I need special Bills-colored glasses.   The Bills scored all of 27 points against the 3 playoff teams they faced in the second half of the season (6 vs Pats, 9 vs Bears, 12 vs Pats).   Their other 3 opponents were non-playoff teams (they played the Jests and Carp twice).  They did hang up 41 on the Jests with Matt Barkley, and 42 on the Carp in the season finale with Josh Allen but Miami was in "run for the bus" mode.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

35 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Fair enough.   

 

Our difference is that I am convinced that the game is more about coaching than talent.  I think the Bills had more than enough talent on offense to be better than they were, and it was the coach's job to implement a scheme where ordinary NFL talent can fill in and succeed in a scheme playing beside good players.  In other words, I think the coach's job is to get more of the talent than the sum of the parts.   Any decent coach can get the sum; more than the sum is the added value that coaches bring.  

 

I don't think Dennison brought any added value.  

 

I think it's the opposite, it's all about talent.  Look at how many teams over the years never won, the team gets a new GM, fixes the roster and they start winning.  A few examples, NY Giants, from the early 60's to around 1980, lose every year, bring in George Young, they start winning, NY Mets, bring in Frank Cashen in the early 80's and they turn around years of losing.  Detroit Red Wings were bad from around 1960 till they brought in a new GM, think it was around 1990 or so, then started winning again. 

 

A couple close to home, Marv Levy went to 4 straight Super Bowls, admittedly never won any, but 4 straight has never been done by anyone else.  Does that make him the greatest coach of all time. I wouldn't put him in the top 10 and if I thought some more, probably not even the top 20.  Scotty Bowman won 4 Stanley Cups in Montreal as coach, but he wanted to be the GM too so comes to Buffalo, roster was made over twice in the years he was here, but they never came close to winning the Cup. If it's all about coaching how could he not have won?

 

There are a couple of exceptions like NE where they have never had that much overall talent, but even there could argue he does have the best QB in the league.  I do think coaching may get you a couple more wins each year in the NFL, and will agree you typically need top level coaching to win it all, (likely the Bills problem in the 90's) but without the players you won't go anywhere.  In the case of poor talent coaching may not even generate any additional wins, just makes them play better.

[K-9]

24 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) Hunt missed the last 7 games.  Hill and Kelce both had their career high in yards by 300. 

 

2) Mahomes probably would have benefited from playing with a defense ranked 2nd (us) than one ranked 31st.  

 

3) maybe the reason Reid took Mahomes, and this is crazy, is because he’s really good! 

1.) All three were Pro Bowlers before Mahomes started a game. Nobody is arguing Mahomes didn’t make them even better.

 

2.) Stands to reason. Doesn’t address the supporting cast on offense though. 

 

3.) Of course Reid took him because he’s really good and he saw his potential. I never claimed otherwise, so don’t put words in my mouth. 

 

Feel free to indulge in all the fantasies of Mahomes in Buffalo til your heart’s content. 

 

I prefer to deal in realities. 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I didn't say you were putting Allen down.  I said that you have to be careful with the stats game...for a lot of reasons...

 

1) Details matter.

 

That "3rd ranked" Denver defense allowed 23.9 PPG in 2017; only 7 teams allowed more.  By the way, the Tyrod-lead Bills scored more points against that same defense in Week 3 than Mahomes' Chiefs in Week 17.  Also worth noting are the snap counts for Denver's defensive stars in that game:

Talib - 10

Harris - 15

Miller - 33

 

All season-lows

 

2) Are you implying that experience makes a difference when evaluating a player?  I agree.  In fact, the biggest difference a player will ever experience is the difference between his first NFL offseason (which happens after the draft) and his first real NFL offsesaon (which happens after his first season).  Once a rookie actually reaches the end of his first season, he's been in "season mode" for almost 17 months.  He's gone from college pre-season in August through the bowl season in January, then into draft prep, combine, visits, workouts, etc. through April. Then, just a week or two later, he's already in rookie minicamp, followed by OTAs, minicamp, and a 6 week break to get his life in order before his first training camp.

 

Forget the toll that takes on your body, what about the stress on your mind?  It's no wonder that guys like Goff and Trubisky (and, to a lesser extent, Wentz) can go from looking utterly lost as rookies to looking like franchise QBs in year 2.

 

I don't say all this to say that you're wrong to be skeptical of Allen, or that he's going to be as good as Mahomes.  What I am saying, however, is that comparing the two of them based upon their respective NFL bodies of work is apples-to-oranges at this point.

Good rational points.  I just simply believe Mahomes is a special talent.  He has one of the greatest arms I have ever seen and he put up monster numbers in college.  Now while that doesn’t guarantee anything in the nfl, I believe it does hold a little weight.

 

what has always scared me about the Allen pick is we are trying to project him to be better in the NFL than he was in MWC.  It seems super risky and offensive coaching staff isn’t filled with guys with super successful nfl resumes.  

 

There are are no guarantees in the nfl.  But it seems like the Bills took possibly the riskiest top 10 qb since possibly Blaine Gabbert.  I love Allen’s moxie and tools but it takes so much more.  We still lack a number 1 receiver and TE.  But I hope he truly is just a late developer because I getting so sick of recycling qbs. 

[K-9]

31 minutes ago, mannc said:

As I've said previously in this thread, this is as bad a take as there will ever be on TSW.  Under this theory, we can never compare players from different teams, because every team is different--simply an absurd premise.   

 

Mahomes has proven that he's a great young QB.  He had outstanding weapons his first year as a starter in KC and he practically re-wrote the record book.  I have no idea what numbers he would have put up in Buffalo, but I know that he would still be a great QB here.  If that's not enough to "flourish" in McDermott's and Daboll's system, then we need to tear it up and start all over again.  

We can compare all we want. No harm in that.

 

But the only “theory” I’m putting forth is that you cannot use fantasy projections of totally unprovable “comparisons” as legitimate proof sources to support a claim as if they are factual. That has taken place here and I think it’s absurd. 

 

And there is no disagreeing that Mahomes has proven himself in a short time. That is real, and observable after the fact. Unfortunately, it can never be proven how he would have done here. We disagree on that. Let’s move on.

38 minutes ago, SoTier said:

When, exactly, does McDermott stop getting passes for his mistakes because he "corrected" them? 

Never, apparently.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Good rational points.  I just simply believe Mahomes is a special talent.  He has one of the greatest arms I have ever seen and he put up monster numbers in college.  Now while that doesn’t guarantee anything in the nfl, I believe it does hold a little weight.

 

what has always scared me about the Allen pick is we are trying to project him to be better in the NFL than he was in MWC.  It seems super risky and offensive coaching staff isn’t filled with guys with super successful nfl resumes.  

 

There are are no guarantees in the nfl.  But it seems like the Bills took possibly the riskiest top 10 qb since possibly Blaine Gabbert.  I love Allen’s moxie and tools but it takes so much more.  We still lack a number 1 receiver and TE.  But I hope he truly is just a late developer because I getting so sick of recycling qbs. 

 

Yeah, he was my #1 overall pick in 2017.