John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think the supporting cast thing is SLIGHTLY overblown. Yes, Kelce and Hill are(were) outstanding players and Hunt was a nice RB. Andy Reid is also a very good offensive coach. That doesn't explain 50 plus TD's considering Alex Smith put up 25 with those same players. I'm not just talking numbers. It's hard to imagine watching Mahomes play and not being blown away by his ability to improvise and make things happen. 

 

Like I ALWAYS say, the Mahomes pick won't matter if Allen pans out. The obstacle for Allen is going to be more quickly identifying his short/intermediate targets when that's the soft spot and delivering with a little more touch. That's an objective independent of the trash we trotted out at WR and TE last season. They've added "enough" talent to make it work if he can improve in this area. Physical talent will certainly never be an issue for JA.

 

I’m not trying to compare the two. I don’t think you can given that one had top 5 help, while the other had (generously) bottom 5 talent. 

 

Having said that, I don’t mean to take anything away from Mahomes. 

[LSHMEAB]

11 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m not trying to compare the two. I don’t think you can given that one had top 5 help, while the other had (generously) bottom 5 talent. 

 

Having said that, I don’t mean to take anything away from Mahomes. 

My "gut" tells me had we taken a QB, it would have been Watson. He's put up solid numbers, but there's something about his game I just don't like. Allen has far more upside than DW IMO, so there's that.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

I wouldn’t say it’s being “suspicious” of Mahomes, but you have to wonder how much how much less production he would have had last year without some top producers he will no longer have.  Josh didn’t get to work with anything like that last year. Could he have gotten the same results? Doubtful, but then he didn’t get the sit and learn year the way Mahomes did. I’ll just remain hopeful. 

As you pointed out Josh didn't have the offensive support that those two young and impressive qbs had last year or even the prior year. What is encouraging is that this offseason was dedicated to putting him in a position to succeed by bringing in  line help, receiving help and running back help. McDermott decided that in his first year he wasn't going to draft a qb with his first round pick. One can disagree with his decision but there were reasons for it. Debating whether he should have done so in his first year is understandable but futile because he didn't. What makes that issue less shadowing this franchise is that he addressed the qb issue the next year. From what I saw with his play last year I, like you,  am optimistic about him being our long-term franchise qb.

[JohnC]

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He still doesn't.... Despite their signings this offseason.

 

I believe that the organization did upgrade the OL, receiving unit and also the backfield. Is that a guarantee? No. On the other hand you can't absolutely say for sure that the numerous moves to upgrade the offense won't work out as intended. We can yin and yang this issue with no immediate conclusion. This issue should be determined one way or another in the not too distant future. What it comes down to is some people look up while other look down. We shall see. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by JohnC

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They did. Not sure it was enough. WR corps is still a bottom of the league unit. TE unit is somewhat abysmal. 

 

I do like what they did on the offensive line, just got to hope they figure out the starting 5 fast and they gel quickly. 

 Now you can see the future and know they will be bottom of the league in a season that has not began yet? Nonsense, You nor I don't know if they will be bottom of the league this season. 

 

The new WR core is a bottom of the league unit when the season hasn't started. Wow, just wow.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

How many targets did Zay get compared to T. Williams? Zay's numbers really have to be taken in context; he was the primary weapon by default as a member of the worst receiver unit in the league. If he can't beat out Foster or Brown, then what? At this point, he looks like a #4. We'll see if that physique improves his confidence.

 

 

Jones was more important to the Bills offense, no doubt.    I hope he raises his game and turns into a poor mans Keenan Allen.........greater than the sum of his talents.......... INSTEAD of that version Jordan Matthews.

 

But he's gotta' start by catching all the easy stuff and a lot of the very difficult ones as well.     Plays like that back shoulder ball he dropped on the last drive in Miami..........unless he turns into a big play X or Z those kinda' passes can't hit the ground.    Especially in the clutch.    It's easy to excuse not making those catches but that's what a possession WR has to do to avoid becoming a journeyman in the NFL.

 

The big concern should be him continuing to be a modern day Josh Reed.............a guy who looked like a freaky pass catcher who got the yips and then never got back to being that sure-handed guy.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 Now you can see the future and know they will be bottom of the league in a season that has not began yet? Nonsense, You nor I don't know if they will be bottom of the league this season. 

 

The new WR core is a bottom of the league unit when the season hasn't started. Wow, just wow.

 

 

The "core" of the "corps" certainly isn't impressive.

 

Beasley and Brown are supposed to turn this unit around and in their 12 NFL seasons they've combined for just 3  where they've surpassed the very modest 700 yards receiving level.

 

You don't need to see the future............just look at their careers............it's not like they've been even remotely consistent or reliable producers.

 

Foster was the key to the Bills WR corps being functional in the second half and the burden........for better or worse..........is likely on him to elevate this group into respectability.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Kubiak was the one example.

 

Carroll was a bad example. Garrett broke out in his 4th season in Dallas with a 12-4 record same goes for BB in Cleveland in his 4th year there. 

 

Your point seems to be continuity equals success.... it doesn't really work that way.

 

If the Bills are hovering around 6-8 wins the next two seasons and the offense still blows McBeane in all likelihood are goners and rightfully so.

 

 

Yeah, no. Carroll is a fine example. One year with the Jets at 6-10. Let go. Took over a New England team that Parcells had taken to 11-5 the year before and watched them erode as he reshaped them, going 10-6, 9-7 and 8-8 and then being fired. Weirdly, though, some people think Pete Carroll is a coach who could take a team to a Super Bowl title if you keep him around a while and give him good players.

 

And no again, that 12-4 record you mention for Jason Garrett came in Garrett's fifth season there. Not the fourth And more, he then went 4-12 in his sixth season. Probably 95% of all teams would have fired him. Dallas didn't, and they're now seeing the benefits.

 

And Belichick's fourth season in Cleveland clearly wasn't a sign that he had turned the corner on that team, for two reasons. First, his fifth season he went 5-11. The second reason is that he was fired after that 5-11 fifth season. And yet ... many people actually seem to feel that Belichick is a good head coach if you put him in a good situation.

 

If the Bills hover around 6 - 8 wins for the next two seasons ... that simply isn't enough evidence, you need to know more. A smart ownership group would need to due a lot more work figuring out what to do there. If the team's not improving behind the scenes, then yeah, the coach should be fired. But wins are often a phenomenon that is subject to a tipping point ... staying low for a while till a lot of upward trends come together and a tipping point is hit. Jason Garrett is an excellent recent example and there are a lot more of them throughout  NFL history.

 

If they lose because he lost the locker room, then yeah, jettison him. And fast. If they lose because of injuries, or because Josh Allen is improving but slowly, or simply because they haven't hit the tipping point, the smart owner keeps the coach.

 

 

 

 

And you're ignoring my question for you in the post you replied to here ... for obvious reasons. Namely, that the answer destroys your point.

 

To repeat ...

 

Now try and find guys who fit your own requirements ... "a GOOD HC coach who was mediocre for 4 straight years ... and succeeded ... in the modern day NFL" ... and was kept around longer and failed? There aren't many because of the quick trigger fingers that modern management has adopted. So we've got four examples of success and not all that many examples of failure. It's a strategy that has worked out a good percentage of the few times it's been tried, even in the modern NFL.

 

Typically, though, in a league where most teams aren't run all that well, this promising strategy which succeeded so often in the past hasn't been used that often despite a pretty decent success rate when tried in the old days and in modern days as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, K-9 said:

Used to be that a draft couldn’t be properly judged until three years after those players were in the league. That was a universally adopted paradigm league wide. What’s changed? The players aren’t radically different. Nor are the personnel professionals in charge of evaluating them. So what’s the difference? I submit it’s the (still) mostly uninformed consumer of the 24/7, 365 news cycle in the age of mass social media and the unreasonable (again, mostly uninformed) expectations that occur as a result.

 

Anyway, the 2017 Bills draft is considered above average by most pundits. But this year will tell us the most about it.

 

 

 

 

Good point.

 

What's changed? Nothing. Smart evaluators don't label players busts until they're cut or three years have passed. You can often tell good players earlier, but plenty of players who don't do much in their first year or two see the light come on a bit later.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 6/13/2019 at 12:06 PM, ScottLaw said:

Truth is he had the ability last year.... and basically every offensive FA he brought in was a flop.

 

 

Needs to hit on them this year..... The offense can not suck for the third year in a row. 

Fans seem to think it takes 5 years for your team to compete for a Super Bowl. It's a ridiculous take.

 

The Rams did it in two years under their new regime. Same goes for the Eagles, and Bears..... But in Buffalo you need 5.

 

 

 

This is a pretty heroically bad take. You're missing the point about rebuilds yet again.

 

Rebuilds take two or more years of badness. The 2017 Rams were in absolutely no way a rebuild. They had the QB they believed - correctly - could become a franchise QB already on the roster. They needed a reload, some work on the OL, an FA WR or two and for their QB to improve a bunch in their second year. They got all those things.

 

You're not comparing apples and oranges when you compare the Rams reload and the Bills rebuild. More like apples and microwaves. Snead, the Rams GM, has been beavering away there since 2012. It simply isn't a rebuild there, or anything close.

 

 

And again, plenty of the FAs they brought in over the last two years have been very successful for what they were paid and what was expected of them. Offense included.

 

Robert Foster is only one example. There are plenty of others such as McKenzie who was paid less than $300K and despite no training camp and only joining the team in November was solid. For that price he was a terrific pickup.

 

What happened is that except for Josh Allen, they spent almost no significant draft or money resources on the offense. The very low-priced guys they did bring in often performed better than would generally be expected of guys paid like that.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Patrick Duffy]

37 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The "core" of the "corps" certainly isn't impressive.

 

Beasley and Brown are supposed to turn this unit around and in their 12 NFL seasons they've combined for just 3  where they've surpassed the very modest 700 yards receiving level.

 

You don't need to see the future............just look at their careers............it's not like they've been even remotely consistent or reliable producers.

 

Foster was the key to the Bills WR corps being functional in the second half and the burden........for better or worse..........is likely on him to elevate this group into respectability.

 

 

Doesn't matter if "you" say they are not impressive. Nobody can say they are the bottom of the league when it hasn't started yet, that's just silliness. You, me , him, or anyone else has no idea how the WR core will do. They could be a little better than last year, or a lot better than last year. Highly doubt they will be worse than last year, but as I said, we just don't know.

 

So again, one stating they are in the bottom when TC hasn't even started is silly talk.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Patrick_Duffy

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The "core" of the "corps" certainly isn't impressive.

 

Beasley and Brown are supposed to turn this unit around and in their 12 NFL seasons they've combined for just 3  where they've surpassed the very modest 700 yards receiving level.

 

You don't need to see the future............just look at their careers............it's not like they've been even remotely consistent or reliable producers.

 

Foster was the key to the Bills WR corps being functional in the second half and the burden........for better or worse..........is likely on him to elevate this group into respectability.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd argue Beasley's been very consistent. Beasley took three seasons to find his feet. Since then he's been very consistent indeed. Like most slot guys he doesn't put together a lot of yards, but he's been terrific at catches per target and he's been open a lot more than they've thrown to him. Cashed in a ton of first downs.

 

And I'd further argue it's hard for a WR (in this case Brown) to be consistent when the QBs who are throwing to him during his five years in the league are:

 

Rookie year: Carson Palmer (6 games) and Drew Stanton  (696 yards)

2nd year: Carson Palmer (16 games)    (1003 yards)

3rd year: Carson Palmer (15 games) and Drew Stanton   (517 yards)

4th year: Carson in his ineffective last year (7 games), Drew Stanton (5 games) and Blaine Gabbert (5 games)  (299 yards in an injury-plagued season with 5 starts and 10 games)

5th year: Joe Flacco (9 games) and Lamar Jackson   (601 yards in Flacco's 9 games and 114 in Jackson's 7)

 

I don't think too many guys would have had consistent production in Brown's circumstances, myself. If Brown stays healthy and Allen raises his game significantly, I think they stand a good chance to be a respectable group.

 

Too many wild cards to get much of a fix on this group but if you keep the bar at "respectable," a solid chance, IMO.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

I also think that it is ok to still be suspicious of Watson and Mahomes.  

 

I don't. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't. 

 

Watson has got some really suspect pocket awareness.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Watson has got some really suspect pocket awareness.

 

He isn't the finished product, sure. He still needs to improve as most Quarterbacks going into their 3rd year do. But the kid has already proven he is a very good NFL Quarterback. I don't see any way at all that Watson and Mahomes are not both top 10 Quarterbacks for the majority of the next decade. Mahomes is going to be top 5 and I don't rule out Watson getting there either. Watson's ACLs might be the only slight chance they are not.

 

And this isn't about bashing the Bills or bashing Josh Allen or any of that. I just think when you watch the tape on both of those two guys then objectively what you see is really talented young Quarterbacks who can make the extraordinary plays as well as the ordinary.

[thebandit27]

10 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

My "gut" tells me had we taken a QB, it would have been Watson. He's put up solid numbers, but there's something about his game I just don't like. Allen has far more upside than DW IMO, so there's that.

 

Just as an FYI--it would have been Mahomes.

[JohnC]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Just as an FYI--it would have been Mahomes.

If one had a choice between Mahomes and Watson and selected the wrong one you still end up selecting the right one. Getting one of them is better than not getting any one of them. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

12 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m not trying to compare the two. I don’t think you can given that one had top 5 help, while the other had (generously) bottom 5 talent. 

 

Having said that, I don’t mean to take anything away from Mahomes. 

 

Sure you can. Mahomes is much better. It’s not even close and it’s not because of the supporting cast.

 

Same with Watson. Two seasons in a row with 103 rating. Last year this an arguably worse oline than Allen (sacked 62 times)

[dave mcbride]

23 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

I get really sick of people thinking every draft pick needs to become a perennial All Pro or Hall of Famer to not be considered a bust.  Sammy Watkins hasn't had the season Zay had last year since 2015, yet the same people who think Zay is a bust still whine about Sammy being traded.    Terrance Williams hasnt caught a touchdown pass since 2016 and some of these same people were clamoring to bring him in as a free agent to boost our wideout corps.

 

Bottom line is you need role players on your team as well.   If someone asked me if I'd take 58 receptions, near 600 yards and 7 touchdowns from a 2nd year, 2nd round draft pick, while playing with Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley, Derek Anderson, and a rookie at QB, I'd sign up for it every time.  

Zay Jones was not good last season, and when Watkins played, he was infinitely more of a threat and a better player than Jones (e.g., the playoff game vs. NE). It's not even remotely close, and yes I realize he gets hurt too much. Regarding Jones's numbers, bear in mind that the very worst NBA teams in history average at least 80 points a game. Someone has to score the points, just as for the worst NFL defense, someone has to make the tackles. Who else did the QBs have to throw to before Foster became a threat? Benjamin was an utter joke and couldn't even run a route properly, and Clay was terrible last season. Jones was the only credible receiver on the team. With regard to Jones last season, stats don't come close to telling the story. He scares no one, struggled all season to beat press coverage, and isn't explosive enough to outrun DBs and take it to the house. Plus he still struggled catching the ball, although his hands are average by NFL standards and I don't want to criticize him too much for that. 

 

Having said all of this, he has a ceiling of "average contributor," which is something.  You need those guys because it's all too easy to end up with below-average offensive contributors (as Bills fans know all too well from last season). If he stays healthy and progresses, he can be a poor man's Robert Woods. That's not a great outcome, but it's not terrible. I suspect he's gone after year 4 anyway. My concern all along is that he's Alex Van D y k e redux, another early second rounder with mediocre athleticism who set a record for catches in college against weak competition.

Edited June 14, 2019 by dave mcbride

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Chemical said:

 

Sure you can. Mahomes is much better. It’s not even close and it’s not because of the supporting cast.

 

Same with Watson. Two seasons in a row with 103 rating. Last year this an arguably worse oline than Allen (sacked 62 times)

With all the attention Mahomes has gotten, Watson gets overlooked.  All things considered, what he's accomplished his first two years in Houston is at least as impressive as Mahomes's one spectacular season.