John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

The only player they couldn't afford to keep was Gilmore. And this was while they were paying the starting QB. They made these decisions. Although in the case of Woods, I believe they would have had to pay him quite a bit more than the Rams. 

 

It's fine if you place a value on a player and don't exceed that number. That seems like a reasonable approach. That being said, they will ultimately judged by how well they do and how quickly they get there.

 

Don't get me wrong; I like the trajectory of the franchise. I simply don't have the same reverence for plans as I do success.

 

People can p&m about their decisions on Woods/Gilmore/Glenn/Watkins/Dareus or they can applaud "cleaning house." None of it matters. Results are the only thing that matter. 

 

 

Results are the only thing that matters, yes. But results are a result of tactics. Bad tactics produces bad results. Tactics matter. Same for your other way of putting the same thing. Success comes as a result of plans and tactics.

 

And that's nonsense that the only player they couldn't afford to keep was Gilmore. There was a guy or two they cut because they didn't fit, most particularly Dareus. But all the other cuts there were for two reasons, cap cuts and draft capital to get a QB. It wasn't a mistake that those two reinforced each other.

[LSHMEAB]

18 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

And that's nonsense that the only player they couldn't afford to keep was Gilmore.

They carried 12 mil of cap space into the season. 

[BillsFan4]

Love all the info @john wawrow. Thanks for sharing! 

[eball]

33 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They passed on Mahomes and Watson the year before. Had they taken either none of those trades are necessary.

 

 

Draft decisions are made in the present, not in hindsight. The Bills didn’t have Watson and Mahomes valued as highly and moved forward with their plan. Why are you so insistent upon living in the past? There were a number of ways McD and Beane could have gone about building the team. Clearly you don’t approve of the one they chose, as you mention it in EVERY. SINGLE. POST. 

 

Move on. 

[BADOLBILZ]

On 5/1/2019 at 5:42 PM, john wawrow said:

 

As I've noted here and/or on the tweeter before.

The Bills, a year ago, were handcuffed in their plans to upgrade the offense for several reasons.

1. They never anticipated losing Wood and Incognito. Once both were gone, they couldn't afford spending much money on their replacements. As Beane told me, simply signing Bodine, meant the Bills had something like $11 million committed to the center position Wood/Bodine.

2. They did take a run at several receivers, including John Brown. The uncertainty at QB -- remember Bills only had Peterman and McCarron under contract at start of free agency -- led the receivers they desired to go elsewhere.

3. Redoing Incognito was part of the plan. That he went sideways after agreeing to the deal is not the Bills' fault.

4. And they were committed to only spending only so much in free agency, because the objective was to free up as much room under the cap as possible.

5. If you go all the way back to Woods, Bills were very much interested in re-signing him. The trouble began when they looked at the price-tag and determined there was no way they would be able to afford what he was going to get on the market.

6. This of course led them to acquire Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin on essential trial deals. They would've been ahead of the game had one or both worked out. Neither did and the Bills didn't give up much in acquiring either.

 

I agree, the WRs this year have some question marks. Fewer, however, than in years past.

 

We'll see.

 

jw

 

 

John has it ever been explained to you by anyone in the Bills organization why the team didn't hire Beane in January of 2017????   I am sure there was a reason but there certainly wasn't a good excuse for it.   The only positive out of trading away the pick that became Patrick Mahomes is that Beane isn't saddled with it on his resume.    Of course.....coincidentally......all the Bills early picks in that draft(White,Jones, Dawkins) were guys who visited Beane in Carolina.  

 

As for your numbers:

 

1.IMO, that's some cash-to-the-cap level nonsense if that's really how Beane rationalized the lack of attention paid to the OL.    The cap is malleable.   Your rookie QB's brain stem....not so much.  Until Allen started running wild he had his head dribbled off the turf against Cinci in preseason and missed games to injury from unblocked pass rushers in Houston. 

2.They also didn't draft a WR in either 2018 or 2019.

3. Incognito was a pro bowl guard...........why did they need him to take a pay-cut from his already cheap deal?   

4. Cash-to-the-cap.  An entirely self imposed limit is a choice......not a limit.

5. They could afford Star Lotulelei.......who amazingly made only ONE play behind the LOS last year....that's hard to do on that many snaps.   But they couldn't "afford" Bob Woods who put up 2,000 receiving yards since he left?  Here's what happened.......they determined that they DID NOT WANT to spend that.  Important distinction.

6. If you recall the Eagles struggled for months to find any takers for Matthews for any kind of draft capital.    The league was moving away from "lumbering" WR's as HOF WR James Lofton characterized Matthews.   Beane was behind the curve on this.   And the primary pick that he spent on Benjamin was just 29 picks later than the one they acquired for Watkins.  So if they "didn't give up much" in acquiring KB I guess they didn't get much more for Watkins either.  

[Big Turk]

On 5/1/2019 at 9:50 PM, BullBuchanan said:

So, he's a very good QB capable of leading a team to win a SB? I agree. He was elite with the eagles when he was younger. He's not a world beater, but with a good team, he won't be the weak link. That's all the jags need with their defense.

He's a QB that can go on incredible hot streaks at times but also a QB just as likely to go on incredible "meh" streaks for just as long...He's a QB that can go on incredible hot streaks at times but also a QB just as likely to go on incredible "meh" streaks for just as long...basically when he plays for long stretches of time you are left wondering why he isnt capable of doing more...

Edited May 17, 2019 by matter2003

[Gugny]

7 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

He's a QB that can go on incredible hot streaks at times but also a QB just as likely to go on incredible "meh" streaks for just as long...He's a QB that can go on incredible hot streaks at times but also a QB just as likely to go on incredible "meh" streaks for just as long...basically when he plays for long stretches of time you are left wondering why he isnt capable of doing more...

 

Sounds like you're talking about my man Ryan Fitzpatrick!  And that's what Foles is and what we will see he is this season.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Sounds like you're talking about my man Ryan Fitzpatrick!  And that's what Foles is and what we will see he is this season.

Well we know why Fotz isn't capable...he lacks the physical tools so when defenses start squatting on routes he can't make them pay for it regularly to force them to stop.

 

Files is a different conversation...not sure why he is so up and down...there are times he looks like the best QB in the NFL

[Punching Bag]

14 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Well we know why Fotz isn't capable...he lacks the physical tools so when defenses start squatting on routes he can't make them pay for it regularly to force them to stop.

 

Files is a different conversation...not sure why he is so up and down...there are times he looks like the best QB in the NFL

 

You put the two QBs names in a blender.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

They passed on Mahomes and Watson the year before. Had they taken either none of those trades are necessary.

 

 

 

Yeah, um, no. That's simply wrong.

 

Yeah, they wouldn't have had to get draft capital together to get a QB.

 

But yes, they still would have had to get the horrendously screwed up cap in order.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

They carried 12 mil of cap space into the season. 

 

 

Correct. But doesn't make your point. They, the Bills and Panthers both, go into each year with $7 - $10 mill available for emergencies, knowing that unspent money simply gets carried over. Yeah, you could spend every penny, and further burden yourself with more money due over the next few years. That is NOT what smart teams do.

 

If I have several thousand dollars in savings and have expenses and income that will put me in roughly the same spot or a bit worse next year ... yeah, I could spend the thousands and hope things change. But it would be stupid. It's not what the smart households do, though it may well be what the majority do. The smart ones plan several years down the road. They create a system that will leave them flexibility consistently. And they sure as hell don't get hemmed in years when they're not even getting close to their goals (the best I could do as an analogy for being in a Super Bowl window).

 

Whaley not only did a crappy job by getting them in cap trouble. He did it with a team that wasn't even close to competing. He hamstrung this team with poor cap management.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/29/buffalo-bills-training-camp-josh-allen-sean-mcdermott-brandon-beane

 

(from training camp in 2018)

 

 

"Lord knows the temptation was there for Sean McDermott. The 44-year-old Bills coach and GM Brandon Beane snapped the franchise’s 18-year playoff drought last fall, their first in Buffalo, and got there by winning four of their final six.

 

"The arrow was pointing up, without question. Which makes their discipline all the more laudable in resisting the natural inclination to ride the momentum into 2018.

 

“ 'Yeah, that’s the near-sighted view, though,' McDermott said, heading off the field on Monday following a walkthrough and his team’s ugly Sunday showing against Cincinnati. 'I understand that. But where I came from in Carolina and before that in Philadelphia, we were able to build and do it the right way. We were able to build a strong, solid foundation. And once we did that, we were able to sustain the success.'

 

"Then, McDermott let himself go a little.

 

“ 'Heck yeah, you want to go out and spend money,' he added. 'But the draft picks, there were only so many left from before we got here. That’s a challenge—we’re not able to depend on those players; they aren’t here anymore. And the cap wasn’t in good shape in order to go out and spend and do some things we wanted. And you don’t want to mortgage, because then you keep having to pay the debt on that mortgage.'

 

"McDermott and Beane haven’t. And they won’t.

 

"That’s why around here this summer, there’s a feeling almost like this is Year 1 2.0. Gone are mainstays like left tackle Cordy Glenn, guard Richie Incognito, center Eric Wood and quarterback Tyrod Taylor. In their places, as everyone saw on Sunday, is a whole lot of the unknown around rookie quarterback Josh Allen.

 

"After last year, that might be tough for Bills fans to swallow. For Beane and McDermott, it’s exciting. And it’s not that they wanted to go through the process of deconstructing the winning team they built in 2017. It’s that they’re moving closer to what they’ve been looking to establish from the start—a foundation that won’t be fleeting.

 

“ 'You gotta be honest with yourself,' Beane said. 'What did we do well, and what are we struggling with? Right off the bat, one thing we struggled with was stopping the run, and we tried to address our front, again not deviating from our plan to get out of this cap situation. We said all along, it’s at least a two-year process—I said two to three, depending on how quickly we could out from underneath some of the bigger deals.' ”

 

 

 

 

 

You would have spent the money, LSHMEAB? Fine, whatever. They couldn't have done that and follow their plan. Which involved getting the cap in excellent order by this year.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Thurman#1

[North Buffalo]

On 4/27/2019 at 8:11 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...Josh between the pipes??..........

no Tre, have you seen his goalie school?

[billsfan89]

On 4/27/2019 at 7:23 AM, ScottLaw said:

Love what they've done with the offensive line.

 

The recievers and pass rush still concern me, not sure they have enough there, more so at reciever, but assuming Allen continues to progress there should be no reason this team isnt competing for a playoff spot come late December.

 

Ed Oliver should be a help to the pass rush. 

[JerseyBills]

McBeane will be here a decade +

[Shortchaz]

It’s the off-season, so of course the Bills are better ?.

 

not to be Debbie downer, but this is part of the pattern for NFL teams and it’s by design. The team is trying to sell tickets. Everything is going in the right direction yet we’re projected to win 6.5 games. 

 

As a fan of football it’s hard to not be excited about the unknown, but if I’ve learned anything from being a fan of the Bills, my expectations, which have historically been based on what is put forward by the front office and repeated by the press, rarely match reality when the season starts, e.g. the first two games of last season.

 

 It’s fun to talk about and excitement will continue to grow until the season, but my expectations for this season are 6.5 wins. I’ve moved to the “show me” stage of my fandom.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Shortchaz

[teef]

9 minutes ago, Shortchaz said:

It’s the off-season, so of course the Bills are better ?.

 

not to be Debbie downer, but this is part of the pattern for NFL teams and it’s by design. The team is trying to sell tickets. Everything is going in the right direction yet we’re projected to win 6.5 games. 

 

As a fan of football it’s hard to not be excited about the unknown, but if I’ve learned anything from being a fan of the Bills, my expectations, which have historically been based on what is put forward by the front office and repeated by the press, rarely match reality when the season starts, e.g. the first two games of last season.

 

 It’s fun to talk about and excitement will continue to grow until the season, but my expectations for this season are 6.5 wins. I’ve moved to the “show me” stage of my fandom.

Yet another poster that’s tons of fun. 

[JaCrispy]

4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

McBeane will be here a decade +

That would be nice 

[SoTier]

On 5/1/2019 at 5:42 PM, john wawrow said:

 

As I've noted here and/or on the tweeter before.

The Bills, a year ago, were handcuffed in their plans to upgrade the offense for several reasons.

1. They never anticipated losing Wood and Incognito. Once both were gone, they couldn't afford spending much money on their replacements. As Beane told me, simply signing Bodine, meant the Bills had something like $11 million committed to the center position Wood/Bodine.

2. They did take a run at several receivers, including John Brown. The uncertainty at QB -- remember Bills only had Peterman and McCarron under contract at start of free agency -- led the receivers they desired to go elsewhere.

3. Redoing Incognito was part of the plan. That he went sideways after agreeing to the deal is not the Bills' fault.

4. And they were committed to only spending only so much in free agency, because the objective was to free up as much room under the cap as possible.

5. If you go all the way back to Woods, Bills were very much interested in re-signing him. The trouble began when they looked at the price-tag and determined there was no way they would be able to afford what he was going to get on the market.

6. This of course led them to acquire Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin on essential trial deals. They would've been ahead of the game had one or both worked out. Neither did and the Bills didn't give up much in acquiring either.

 

I agree, the WRs this year have some question marks. Fewer, however, than in years past.

 

We'll see.

 

jw

 

This list smacks of simply repeating excuses circulated by the Bills FO to cover their collective backsides for making poor decisions. 

 

Don't give me this "They never anticipated losing Wood and Incognito" BS.   Yes, Wood's force retirement was an unexpected blow, but Incognito was 36 years old.   A competent FO anticipates that 36 year old OLers just might not be around too much longer ... or, heaven forbid, OLers might get injured.   Despite losing Incognito and with John Miller having struggled in 2017 and Vlad Ducasse being a career bottom-feeder OG, the Bills finally got around to drafting their one and only 2018 OLer at the end of the fifth round.

 

Technically, the Bills had Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman on the payroll at the beginning of free agency, and then traded Taylor to the Browns a day after the FA began.   McCarron was signed after Taylor was traded.   If FA WRs chose to sign elsewhere because of the QB situation, that's on Beane/McDermott for choosing to have such inexperienced/incompetent (Peterman) QBs on the roster.

 

Saying that "they were committed to only spending only so much in free agency, because the objective was to free up as much room under the cap as possible" says that they -- Beane, McDermott, Pegula, all the bean-counters at OBD -- were perfectly okay with spending huge amounts of draft capital to get a first round QB but weren't really interested in seeing him succeed.  How is that significantly different from the way that the Donahoe or the Brandon/Levy/Jauron or the Brandon/Nix/ Whaley regimes operated -- exciting the fan base with individual FA signings or draft picks but never building a quality team to make those signings worthwhile?

 

As for re-signing Woods, I doubt that the Bills ever had any expectations of doing so.   Woods was simply too good to settle for whatever the Bills were willing to offer him.  The last top class WR that the Bills drafted and re-signed for the current market rate for #1 WRs was Eric Moulds.  While Lee Evans was also re-signed, he had never played as well as expected.  

 

It wasn't a case of they couldn't "afford" to re-sign Stephon Gilmore, either.  It's that they chose to not to do so because that's been the Bills practice for decades: draft first round DBs, develop them into top players, and let them walk away in FA rather than pay them.  Only first rounder Leotis McKelvin, who was never more than a competent DB, was re-signed.  Winfield, Clements, Whitner, and Gilmore all left because the Bills decided to draft their replacements rather than pay them.  

 

One of the big reasons that I'm not sold on the Beane and McDermott regime being any more successful than their predecessors is that they've done so many things the same way they've been done in the past.  They seem to be carrying on the tainted legacy of Russ Brandon of putting the making more profit ahead of winning more games.  Before he was hired by the Bills, Brandon's claim to fame was gutting the Florida Marlins the year after they won the 1997 World Series (Fire Sale ).   That shouldn't be surprising since they were both hired while he was in charge of the team, so it's likely they share his views about paying for players.  From your post, it certainly sounds that way, which to my mind doesn't bode well for building a winning franchise on their watch.   The way the entire QB situation was handled in 2018, from not providing Allen with an experienced QB coach to the get-go to keeping Peterman on the roster long after it became clear that the team wouldn't play for him to waiting a month for Anderson and to finally getting around to signing a somewhat competent backup QB only after Anderson got injured doesn't scream "this organization is going to do whatever it needs to do to win games".  It says just the opposite.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not jumping on this bandwagon until it proves itself.  I've been fooled too many times before by the Bills.

[JohnC]

23 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The conversation is about the past. Thurman made it seem like it was a necessity to trade all those players for draft picks. It wasn't. 

 

Obviously they didn't value Mahomes and Watson as much otherwise one of them would be here. 

 

Stop getting so butt hurt dude. It's a message board. It's conversation about the Bills. Critical thinking isn't a bad thing.??

McDermott, and later with the hiring of Beane, made the decision to deconstruct not only the roster and cap structure but also the organization. They could have taken a more incremental approach but that wasn't what they wanted to do. Just look at how much they cleaned house and brought in their own players. That was their plan and that is exactly what they did. 

 

I would rather have had McDermott draft either Mahomes or Watson in his first draft but my sense was that he didn't trust Whaley and his scouting staff to make that evaluation and judgment. The trade down within the context of him remaking the roster and recalibrating the cap structure made sense because he gained more picks to bring in players to replace the players he was going to dispatch. 

 

There is a good case to be made that it wasn't necessary to demolish most of what was done prior to the new regime's arrival. But the clapping coach was hired by the owner because he had specific plan that was counter to what was done prior to his installation. And looking back and at the present that is exactly what he is doing: implementing his plan. 

[Bill from NYC]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Whaley not only did a crappy job by getting them in cap trouble. He did it with a team that wasn't even close to competing. He hamstrung this team with poor cap management.

 

Indeed.