"The Bills are winning this Draft" - Per Matt Miller

[auburnbillsbacker]

On 4/27/2019 at 1:32 AM, Scorp83 said:

Even though I know in my heart this is a good draft... I'm left a tad disappointed that we haven't address WR yet... but man Adam Lefkoe, Matt Miller & Conner Rogers just gave our GM the highest praise I've ever seen in a longtime!

 

It's definitely a treat for every person on this board to watch this video! 

 

They even went so far to call other teams "Stupid" for allowing the Bills to do what they're doing ???

 

https://bleacherreport.com/post/buffalo-bills/6325b7d3-19fb-46ad-8781-17245cef0af2

 

Enjoy... & yea... let's discuss how everyone is feeling so far about the draft too... we don't have ANY 4th Rd picks, so we won't see any action until about 2pm tomorrow afternoon. 

I hope those guys are right.

[Rochesterfan]

16 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

A 3rd round pick is a relatively large commitment to a RB. I think they must view Singletary as an eventual 3 down back. It's not great value otherwise. 

 

I wouldn't be particularly happy if RB is still a need next offseason.

 

I would expect RB to be a need going into next off-season no matter what.  You have 2 guys in Shady and Gore that will make this team and will be most likely done after this season.  

 

That would leave only Yeldon left - now add Singletary and you have 2 - they will need additional help next year, but they will have had an entire year to see exactly what they have in Singletary and what they need to further address the position.

 

Additionally, Singletary has a lot of wear on the body and this year will allow some time to recover - while still getting to know what he can do.  He will not be the primary back and may be deactivated some weeks as he learns, but this pick was not necessarily about 2019, but looking at value on their board and 2020 as a goal.

[Rochesterfan]

15 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

They used a 3rd round pick on a running back. Singletary is supposed to be the guy. I would be shocked if Shady OR Gore were on the team in 2020. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be shocked if one of them wasn't on the team in 2019.

 

That being said, we shouldn't need to draft a running back in the top 3rd of the draft if Singletary is the right guy.

 

Use the Chiefs for example. They drafted Hunt in the 4th to be the bellcow. Had it not been for the off field issues, they may have needed more backs, but they wouldn't need to be drafting one relatively early. 

 

When you spend a 3rd on a RB, the expectations are pretty high.

 

 

Why was Hunt available in the 4th - because of his history.  He fell because of suspensions.

 

Additionally - he was drafted by KC in the 3rd round not the 4th round - so what is the difference.  He was drafted to be the back-up to Spencer Ware and only got to start due to injury.  We are not to that point - maybe McCoy or Gore get hurt and he starts - we don’t know, but the situation here is similar.

 

Both he and Hunt were drafted to be back-ups for a year and prove what they could do - exactly what you expect with a 3rd round pick.

Edited April 28, 2019 by Rochesterfan

[foreboding]

On 4/27/2019 at 2:02 AM, sven233 said:

My biggest issue with this pick is not the player.  He could turn out to be awesome.  My only concern is giving up 2 4th round picks to get him.  But, it looks like Beane is starting to feel like our roster is getting very close to where he wants it to be and that the chances of these lower round guys making the team is slim.  If that's the case, then this makes giving up the 2 4th rounders a bit easier to swallow.

Really tho he gave up one pick, they swapped our 4th for their 3rd. We had to give a 4th to make it happen.

Edited April 28, 2019 by foreboding

[LSHMEAB]

3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

Why was Hunt available in the 4th - because of his history.  He fell because of suspensions.

 

Additionally - he was drafted by KC in the 3rd round not the 4th round - so what is the difference.  He was drafted to be the back-up to Spencer Ware and only got to start due to injury.  We are not to that point - maybe McCoy or Gore get hurt and he starts - we don’t know, but the situation here is similar.

 

Both he and Hunt were drafted to be back-ups for a year and prove what they could do - exactly what you expect with a 3rd round pick.

Right. And using Hunt as an example, he proved exactly what he could do(as a player).

 

I feel like people have VERY low expectations for Singletary. The way I look at it, you spend a third round pick on a RB because you believe he's going to be the man. RB's are a dime a dozen and be found in many different ways that don't include high draft capital. 

 

If he's not the primary back in 2020, it wasn't a good pick IMO.

 

We WILL need new backs in 2020. Gore and Shady will be gone. Yeldon. Meh. My hope is that Singletary is a bellcow and the backs we need are entirely complimentary. If a Kamara happens to be available, that's kind of a different story. He's essentially a receiver out of the backfield. Every team would love a guy like that, but it's more of a luxury than a need.

 

It was really the only pick I didn't like FWIW. Feel pretty good overall about the draft.

Edited April 28, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Scorp83]

4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I would expect RB to be a need going into next off-season no matter what.  You have 2 guys in Shady and Gore that will make this team and will be most likely done after this season.  

 

That would leave only Yeldon left - now add Singletary and you have 2 - they will need additional help next year, but they will have had an entire year to see exactly what they have in Singletary and what they need to further address the position.

 

Additionally, Singletary has a lot of wear on the body and this year will allow some time to recover - while still getting to know what he can do.  He will not be the primary back and may be deactivated some weeks as he learns, but this pick was not necessarily about 2019, but looking at value on their board and 2020 as a goal.

I said the same thing... RB will most likely be a need next offseason. But we'll see about the wear & tear on Singletary.  If he ends up being great, it won't matter... the great one's don't breakdown when used alot... 

[BillsFan4]

https://theathletic.com/951917/2019/04/29/using-the-consensus-big-board-to-determine-how-teams-did-in-the-draft/   (sub required) 

 

Quote

The first step is to generate a valuation of every player in the draft, something the Consensus Big Board can do in a relatively objective way. While the top 300 is the most relevant feature of the board, we can see that many players in the draft weren’t in the top 300. To account for that, I’ve extended the board to 800 players for this analysis. The 60 evaluators together had grades on all but one player in the draft — Murray State’s Quincy Williams.

 

The Consensus Big Board isn’t a bad way to evaluate players either. When looking at how it projected players in the 2014 and 2015 draft, it was almost identically as efficient as the NFL.

 

From there, we can determine a player’s value by his rank order, similar to the way draft picks are valued in the Jimmy Johnson trade chart and Chase Stuart trade chart. From there, we can subtract a pick’s value from the player’s value to see how good the pick was. In order to account for the fact that teams entered the draft with different amounts of draft capital, we can divide that number by the value of the pick to even things out.

 

Quote

 

 

Bills ranked 3rd. 

 

And they were 4th on their adjusted rankings (that take into account team need + positional value)

 

Quote

 

 

Edit - also ranked 2nd in Dane Brugler’s rankings -

 

https://theathletic.com/951557/2019/04/28/dane-bruglers-nfl-draft-class-power-rankings/

 

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Favorite pick: Cody Ford, OT/G, Oklahoma
I just as easily could have gone with Ed Oliver, but to land Ford at pick No. 38 is tremendous value (No. 19 on my board). The Bills flirted with the idea of trading up for Oliver, but he fell in their laps without having to sacrifice trade-up assets. Ford can start at either tackle or guard and will be a valuable foundation piece as the Bills look to build the offense around Josh Allen.

 

Questionable pick: Darryl Johnson, EDGE, North Carolina A&T
It is understandable why the Bills are rolling the dice in the seventh round on a bendy, productive FCS pass-rusher. But the absence of power was my biggest takeaway after studying his tape, as he lacks the shed strength to easily detach once engulfed by blockers.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Vosean Joseph, LB, Florida
Joseph is a fun player on tape with his quick read/react skills and uncanny ability to stay free from blocks and find the ball carrier. He fell in the draft due to discipline issues (on and off the field) and a hamstring injury that kept him from working out prior to the draft. But if he matures, Joseph will outplay his draft spot.

 

Edited April 30, 2019 by BillsFan4

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://theathletic.com/951917/2019/04/29/using-the-consensus-big-board-to-determine-how-teams-did-in-the-draft/   (sub required) 

 

 

 

 

Bills ranked 3rd. 

 

And they were 4th on their adjusted rankings (that take into account team need + positional value)

 

 

 

 

There really is no arguing that they DIDN'T get good board value.

 

The problem is that the board doesn't account for positional value.

 

When the draft happens some teams actually do...........and guards and running backs tumble..........so if you take one it looks like you scored value.

 

And if you believe in the "can't go broke making a profit" school of thought then you did score.

 

 

[BillsFan4]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There really is no arguing that they DIDN'T get good board value.

 

The problem is that the board doesn't account for positional value.

 

When the draft happens some teams actually do...........and guards and running backs tumble..........so if you take one it looks like you scored value.

 

And if you believe in the "can't go broke making a profit" school of thought then you did score.

 

 

The 2nd chart I posted (where the Bills were ranked 4th best draft) does account for positional value.

 

Heres the description -

 

Quote

On its face, this makes sense; it’s better to grab better players early. But there are at least two problems — first, it doesn’t account for team needs or positional value, both of which are big parts of grading any draft. If a team grabs the best available player and then benches him for the life of his contract, they didn’t get value out of that pick. If a team reaches for a quarterback — as the Consensus Big Board argues Arizona technically did — then that’s probably fine, since quarterbacks matter more than any other position.

 

If we let NFL teams determine positional value by looking at the past four drafts and comparing which positions were typically “overdrafted” or “underdrafted” by consensus boards we can get a positional modifier that evens everything out.

We can also use a team-needs matrix to give teams boosts for grabbing players who were needs and likely to play sooner. While the “best player available” draft philosophy is intuitively appealing, it seems like every team follows it while mysteriously also addressing their major needs in the draft — no team seems to end up with four running backs or three quarterbacks.

 

While BPA can supersede need at times — the Vikings drafting Adrian Peterson or the Packers drafting Aaron Rodgers, for example — teams will mostly account for need and we will, too.

 

For that, we’ll use the chart generated by Drafttek, which gives us an approximation of the team’s needs entering the draft.