RD 3, Pick 96: TE Dawson Knox, Ole Miss

[MakeBuffaloGreatAgain]

New nick name, Hard Knox!!! Bam! I know right?!?!?? Genius!

[Captain Hindsight]

Meet our version of George Kittle

[HeHateMe]

I wonder what numbers this guy would of put up playing at Iowa..  and not an offense that neglected throwing to his position.

[akm0404]

13 hours ago, #34fan said:

I may have overlooked a few Dawson Knox, and Devin Singletary types, but that's because they're terrible, and have little chance of turning into successful pros. -What's the point of using useful picks on kids bound for the the practice squad?  -It's absurd. -Which is probably why you support it.

 

This this just an attempt to say that third/fourth round picks generally don't tend to be lead pipe locks to be successful NFL players, or a shot at the guys we took in particular?

 

Care to toss out a couple guys taken after them in the third/fourth that you are certain will be NFL stars?

Can't tell if you're just making a statement about the odds of these later picks succeeding (which I generally agree with), or that we puked on ourselves and left the studs sitting out there (more dubious of this claim)...

Edited April 29, 2019 by akm0404

[aristocrat]

14 hours ago, #34fan said:

 

Bu*****t.   I've been talking up the same kids since the CFB season ended, and many before... I may have overlooked a few Dawson Knox, and Devin Singletary types, but that's because they're terrible, and have little chance of turning into successful pros. -What's the point of using useful picks on kids bound for the the practice squad?  -It's absurd. -Which is probably why you support it.

 

 

 

who's your guy at this pick that you think is guranteed better than knox?  This guy is a nice athlete with all the size and measureables you want.  When you get towards the end of third and fourth round these are guys that are flyers. We got Milano in the fifth and Phillips in the third last year, along with johnson and neal so this regime has a track record of getting talent late. 

[racketmaster]

Dawson Knox is a classic reason as to why you wait on drafting a tight end until the 2nd and 3rd rounds. He has all the measurable of an elite tight end (height, weight, speed) but just did not have the production because he was rarely used in the Ole Miss offense. George Kittle is a the most recent classic example of a quality tight end at the NFL level that had very little production at the college level despite all the athletic measurables. We have seen others over the years become elite tight ends without having much or any college production. Jimmy Graham played 1 year of college football and had a total of 17 receptions. Antonio Gates did not even play college football. But they had the measuables and athletic skill to develop into elite players.

 

Now I'm not saying Knox is going to be an elite tight end on the level of Kittle or Gates, but he could easily turn into a top 15 tight end. He is the type of prospect I was hoping the Bills would identify outside of the first round. I would not be shocked if Knox ended up having just as good of a career at Hockenson and there are a few reasons why:

 

1. The nature of the position lends itself to high quality tight ends coming out of the 2nd and 3rd rounds. TE is similar to the RB position where you don't have to get one in the first round. In fact, the 2nd and 3rd rounds have each produced more quality and elite TEs than the first round.

2. Knox has the elite measurables in terms of height, weight and speed. He ran in the 4.5s while Hockenson was a 4.7 speed guy. Plus Knox has a little more shiftiness and nimbleness to him where as Hockenson and Fant are a little more straight line speed guys. In any case, Knox stacks up athletically with the 2 first round tight ends.

3. Knox is an underrated blocker. Hockenson gets all the blocking attention and it is deserved but watching Knox, he is a very good blocker. Ole Miss had the confidence to match Knox up 1 on 1 with Josh Allen and Montez Sweat numerous times from the games I watched in 2017 and he more than held is own. Sometimes Knox got help from a RB chipping and they did not always match up on the same side. But when I saw Knox run and pass block 1 on 1 against those 2 first round picks, he did a great job. His blocking ability will keep him around in the NFL and give him a chance to get on the field and develop as a pass receiver.

4. Opportunity. Knox had little opportunity at Ole Miss. When given a chance, he could make difficult adjustments to the football and showed reliable hands. One of the broadcast teams said that Knox had the best hands on the Ole Miss team that obviously included Metcalf and AJ Brown. Knox is a fluid route runner and former high school quarterback. He is smart and has the ability to run a variety of routes. In the games I watched he was able to get deep down the field for would be touchdowns but was underthrown or not thrown to at all as the Ole Miss QB was situation was less than impressive.

5. Competitiveness, tough and willing to put in the work. Knox showed his competitive nature in his blocking and I trust the Bills to identify players that truly want to get better. He also played through a hernia injury last year that required surgery in the off season.

 

It is the draft so there are no guarantees, but Knox is the type of TE that teams should target in the middle rounds because he could easily turn into a home run pick.

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by racketmaster

[Kelly the Dog]

1 hour ago, HeHateMe said:

I wonder what numbers this guy would of put up playing at Iowa..  and not an offense that neglected throwing to his position.

Impossible to know, but chances are he would have been a much higher pick if he had been on Iowa, and gotten 5x the chances, and Noah Fant would have been a much lower pick if he had been on  Ole Miss.

[badassgixxer05]

12 hours ago, Mat68 said:

This is probably the most curious pick in the draft.  Freak athlete for the position.  Seems to be a willing blocker which is important.  His movement will be nightmare for safties and linebakers to handle.  Big questions how are his hands, and can he high point the football.  The scout knick media types love the guy.  His college production is nowhere to be found.  He could be beast time will tell.  His name is right out of a football movie.  If he is decent the Buffalo fans will turn him into a cult icon.  

Haha, yes. indeed.

[napmaster]

On ‎4‎/‎28‎/‎2019 at 8:45 AM, Boca BIlls said:

I hate when people says "Did they need to trade up" 

 

They know more then you so obviously something made them trade up so the answer is always YES. 

 

You are correct.  It was just my initial reaction to the pick, so more of a quick response without thinking it through.  They targeted the player and moved up to get him, so yes, they needed to move up.

[YoloinOhio]

Per Greg Cosell, Knox possesses all the of traits to become a TE 1 in the NFL. Production did not concern him. 

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Impossible to know, but chances are he would have been a much higher pick if he had been on Iowa, and gotten 5x the chances, and Noah Fant would have been a much lower pick if he had been on  Ole Miss.

 

I think if Fant had played at Ol' Miss he would have been used as a big WR on the outside stretching defenses or as a red zone mismatch with a limited passing tree. Unlike the Hawkeye approach to the position, Ol' Miss coaches seem to be of that old school mindset of TE's block first and very occasionally serve as outlets or decoys which may in and of itself explain much of the lack of production from Knox from the position.

 

The only real concern I have with Knox is his hands with the 15 catches to 28 targets. So I am tapping the brakes on folks saying just because his height, weight, and speed (measurables) are comparable he is a Hockenson prospect clone. Hock dropped one pass thrown his way last year I think - so yeah, he has hands. He also has had arguably better coaching reading defenses and running routes that pro TEs should know how to run.

 

Not saying Knox cannot develop as a receiver as he seems pretty fluid and athletic when he releases, and just like Hock he is a redshirt jr. just that there may be quite a bit of learning curve before we have a better idea what his ceiling may look like. I will be watching Hockenson as well to see if he lives up to the hype in Detroit. Curious priority for a team that could not figure out how to use Ebron, but we will see if they break their next shiny toy.

 

 

[Doc]

Does he have bad hands?

[Turk71]

2 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I think if Fant had played at Ol' Miss he would have been used as a big WR on the outside stretching defenses or as a red zone mismatch with a limited passing tree. Unlike the Hawkeye approach to the position, Ol' Miss coaches seem to be of that old school mindset of TE's block first and very occasionally serve as outlets or decoys which may in and of itself explain much of the lack of production from Knox from the position.

 

The only real concern I have with Knox is his hands with the 15 catches to 28 targets. So I am tapping the brakes on folks saying just because his height, weight, and speed (measurables) are comparable he is a Hockenson prospect clone. Hock dropped one pass thrown his way last year I think - so yeah, he has hands. He also has had arguably better coaching reading defenses and running routes that pro TEs should know how to run.

 

Not saying Knox cannot develop as a receiver as he seems pretty fluid and athletic when he releases, and just like Hock he is a redshirt jr. just that there may be quite a bit of learning curve before we have a better idea what his ceiling may look like. I will be watching Hockenson as well to see if he lives up to the hype in Detroit. Curious priority for a team that could not figure out how to use Ebron, but we will see if they break their next shiny toy.

 

 

You mention Knox had 15 catches on 28 targets, how many were drops of catchable balls? That is the only way of giving that stat a useful perspective. I know the qb was not that great and that stat alone doesn't tell us anything about Knox' hands.

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

Does he have bad hands?

 

No.  He has very good hands from the video clips I've seen.  

 

He was on the Cowboys radar as well (they had him in as one of their 30 visits).    Here's what the Dallas guy who writes for The Athletic had to say:

 

"...Knox is more of a big wide receiver than a tight end, often times lining up in the slot or outside. He hardly ever lined up as the in-line tight end, but often went into games as a wing back."

 

"...Despite not being used correctly, Knox shows some of the key traits you look for out of tight ends. Good hands, the ability to separate down the field, toughness and concentration over the middle, speed, and a knack for getting yards after the catch. On the negative side, you’d like to see his route-running tighten up just a little bit, but it’s hard to knock him for that, considering he wasn’t asked to run many routes." 

 

"...I typically don’t like player comparisons, but I see real similarities between Knox and George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers. Like Knox, Kittle had limited college production. Knox caught 39 passes in college, while Kittle had 48.   They are both 6’4, with Knox being seven pounds heavier.  Kittle ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Knox ran the drill in 4.51 seconds at his pro-day. Kittle bench-pressed 18 reps at the combine, Knox managed 16."

 

[HeHateMe]

If he is even close to Kittle that would be an amazing get.

[WideNine]

On 4/29/2019 at 2:21 PM, Turk71 said:

You mention Knox had 15 catches on 28 targets, how many were drops of catchable balls? That is the only way of giving that stat a useful perspective. I know the qb was not that great and that stat alone doesn't tell us anything about Knox' hands.

 

I am so not going to go down that rabbit hole - we killed that topic to death with Allen.

 

I would say both Iowa and Ol' Miss QBs leave a bit to be desired. Nate Stanley for IA is streaky, when he is hot he looks like a QB who could climb up the draft over 2019, then there are the other games. 

 

Ta'amu went undrafted and considering the wealth of talent he had at receiver and the quality of his offensive line one can make their own judgement call on what the NFL talent evaluators felt about his ability to read defenses, timing, ball placement, and arm strength.

 

We have a lot of unknowns with Knox lets just leave it at that - too early for anyone to know for sure what we have. I was only adding some cautionary information on what I am going to be looking at when they use this kid - does he have soft hands, what kind of catch radius does he show us, and can he catch contested balls in traffic (if he brings any of that nasty streak he shows blocking into the latter it will be a given).

 

Edited May 1, 2019 by WideNine

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

No.  He has very good hands from the video clips I've seen.  

 

He was on the Cowboys radar as well (they had him in as one of their 30 visits).    Here's what the Dallas guy who writes for The Athletic had to say:

 

"...Knox is more of a big wide receiver than a tight end, often times lining up in the slot or outside. He hardly ever lined up as the in-line tight end, but often went into games as a wing back."

 

"...Despite not being used correctly, Knox shows some of the key traits you look for out of tight ends. Good hands, the ability to separate down the field, toughness and concentration over the middle, speed, and a knack for getting yards after the catch. On the negative side, you’d like to see his route-running tighten up just a little bit, but it’s hard to knock him for that, considering he wasn’t asked to run many routes." 

 

"...I typically don’t like player comparisons, but I see real similarities between Knox and George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers. Like Knox, Kittle had limited college production. Knox caught 39 passes in college, while Kittle had 48.   They are both 6’4, with Knox being seven pounds heavier.  Kittle ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Knox ran the drill in 4.51 seconds at his pro-day. Kittle bench-pressed 18 reps at the combine, Knox managed 16."

 

 

Saw another Dallas article where they were comparing him to Witten...not too shabby for any TE. 

 

Poor QB play, and too little involvement in the offense could explain the poor catch ratio. I like how he catches the ball on his clips where he is catching the ball.

 

Away from his body with pretty good form. Kid seems pretty fearless too, no KB-esk alligator-arming passes because he sees the safety coming into view.

 

I think we may have a keeper, and trying to stay cautiously optimistic.

 

Been years since I looked forward this much for a  season to get rolling.

 

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by WideNine

[Turk71]

https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/04/23/dawson-knox-2019-nfl-draft-profile/

 

Here is a profile on Knox, mentions his sure hands and ability to catch the ball. How he rarely drops passes and his ability adjusting to the ball in the air and making diving catches.

  Also lists some of his weaknesses.

[WideNine]

39 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/04/23/dawson-knox-2019-nfl-draft-profile/

 

Here is a profile on Knox, mentions his sure hands and ability to catch the ball. How he rarely drops passes and his ability adjusting to the ball in the air and making diving catches.

  Also lists some of his weaknesses.

 

Pretty objective piece.

 

I like the kid and he's young and has room to grow into his game. Interesting to see how much Daboll works him into the offense.

 

With Kroft on board the Bills can ease this kid's into his development and not overwhelm him out of the gate.

 

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by WideNine

[billybob71]

6 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Pretty objective piece.

 

I like the kid and he's young and has room to grow into his game. Interesting to see how much Daboll works him into the offense.

 

With Ertz on board the Bills can ease this kid's into his development and not overwhelm him out of the gate.

 

 

Did i miss something? We signing Zach Ertz?