What are the top 8 teams going to do? Implications for the Bills

[IgotBILLStopay]

Clearly any number of scenarios can play out by the time we get to 9. I wanted to put all the info (needs, rumors, contacts etc.) about each of the top 8 picks that is available out there and see what that means for the Bills picks. Some of the info is already on this forum spread across different threads but some of it is new and, at least to me, it makes sense processing this in a holistic fashion.

 

Pick 1: Cards Kyler Murray

Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB?, DT, WR, S

Klingsbury has been in love with Kyler Murray for a long time and is on record that he would take him #1. So, it is a no-brainer that Kyler Murray has been consistently mocked to the Cards over the past month. However, not making any overt moves regarding Rosen appears to have lessened the odds in favor of Murray to the Cards. I suspect this silence (reminiscent of Dorsey last year with the Mayfield pick) is primarily to see if they could move lower down and still get Murray while picking up draft assets. However, given their interest in Murray has been well chronicled, at this point the bigger surprise will be if they do not pick Murray. Also, if they really do want Murray, given the news that the #3 pick is for sale by the Jets, they cannot really move below 2 to guarantee Murray.  If they do not pick Murray, the Raiders are the only team needing a QB with enough assets this year to move up and get Murray.  In other words, even if the Cards do not want Murray and the Raiders want him, Murray will go #1 after a trade with the Raiders.

 

Pick 2: 49ers Nick Bosa

Post Free Agency Team Needs: S, C, DE, P

49ers have been linked to only 2 players throughout this entire pre-draft period: Bosa and Q. Williams. 49ers play a 4-3 defense and both are natural fits on its DL. However, DeForest Buckner has been a stud at RDT and Arik Armstead (former first round pick) had his best year in 2018 after missing significant time in 2016 and 2017 due to injuries. They did pick up Dee Ford at RDE in Free Agency. However, Solomon Thomas has been a big let-down despite being the third overall pick in 2017. This makes me think that DE is a bigger need for them and they are probably going with Bosa. I must add that Q. Williams can probably play the 5-tech DE as good as anybody coming out – so there is still a chance the 49ers select him over Bosa.Also, they too have been mentioned as potential trade targets for teams wanting to move up – but I suspect the cost involved for a non-top 5 team to move up will be very high.

 

Pick 3: Jets Josh Allen

Post Free Agency Team Needs: C, DE, T, CB

Jets pick has been widely rumored to be for sale. If Kyler Murray is available, all bets are off and Jets might make out like bandits. But I do not consider that very likely. There are some rumblings that Washington and NYG want to trade up to get Daniel Jones (or Haskins) here, but I suspect the cost for the latter might be too high and the critical position is probably #5 (the pick before the Giants). Jets already have a nice 3-tech DT in Leonard Williams. After their past failures with two pass-rushing DTS (Sheldon Richardson and L. Williams), they should be wary of doing the same by pairing Q. Williams with L. Williams. That said, there have been some rumblings about Gregg Williams (their DC) being infatuated with Ed Oliver. However, given their needs at Edge and given there is a stud available here in Josh Allen who can play the Edge in both a 4-3 and a 3-4, I suspect they go with him here. If they choose to go DT, there appears to be a better chance of Oliver here rather than Q. Williams.

 

Pick 4: Raiders Devin White / Quinnen Williams

Post Free Agency Team Needs: DE, LB, CB, RB, TE

If Bosa or Allen were available here, Mayock will likely just pounce on him. They have Hurst and Hall at DT. And these two were more than adequate last year. Most mocks the past month had Q. Williams going here although recently, there have been some rumblings of a surprise pick here. I think this is where the real draft intrigue starts. Mayock is a rookie GM and Gruden has never been shy about going against conventional thinking. One possible surprise pick is Devin White. They have a need at LB, White is the Butkus award winner and this year the dropoff at LB after the top 2 is significant unlike at DT and DE. Rapoport, Mcshay, Gehlken and Breer have all changed their Raiders pick from Q. Williams to D. White. The two other surprise picks are a QB and a DE. At the Senior Bowl, Gruden coached both Drew Lock and Daniel Jones and reportedly fell in love with one of them depending on which report we would like to believe. He also coached against Montez Sweat. Given how dominant Montez Sweat was there and how he destroyed the combine, I think there is also a small chance of Sweat going here given the Raiders acute needs at Edge.

 

Pick 5 Bucs Traded to WAS. WAS picks Dwayne Haskins

Pick 5 If No Trade Devin White

Bucs Post Free Agency Team Needs: LB, T, CB, S, RB, K

Redskins Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB enough said

Bucs have hired Todd Bowles and will move to 3-4 defense for sure. They have Vita Vea at NT and he performed at a reasonably high level after a slow start before his injury. Also he is probably a better fit at 3-4 than Q. Williams or Ed Oliver. Arians mentioned yesterday that there are 6 generational talents in this year’s draft – I am going to assume 5 of them are Q. Williams, Ed Oliver, Bosa, Josh Allen and Devin White. The 6^th one is a mystery, but I suspect it to be Montez Sweat. Montez Sweat destroyed the combine and the Senior Bowl. Also Tampa Bay has inside information on Montez Sweat (TB’s strength and conditioning coaches all moved there this year from Mississippi State and know the ins and outs of Sweat’s medical issues). I think the recent news (misinfo?) regarding Sweat’s heart plays into their hands perfectly.  Given the high probability that teams are going to shy away from Sweat and given the inside info they have (like the Cowboys had with Jaylon Smith 2 years ago), I think they are willing to trade with Washington and roll the dice on Sweat being available at #14.

There are differing reports out there about the Redskins liking Daniel Jones or Dwayne Haskins. Both visited them just last week. There are more murmurs regarding Haskins than Jones – so I am going with that.

 

Pick 6: Giants Quinnen Williams / Devin White / Ed Oliver / Daniel Jones

Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB, T, DT, LB, DE, WR

Giants have holes everywhere. Gettleman has never traded down in his life. He is on record just last week as saying one should not reach for a QB and that a team needs a defensive leader. That makes me think he is going Defense first. I suspect it will be Q. Williams if he is still there and if not, it will be Devin White to get a Keuchly type defensive leader. If Devin White is also gone, then he might go Ed Oliver here. There is also a small chance that given two QBs are already gone and several QB hungry teams come before #17, he might go Daniel Jones here.

 

Pick 7: If no trade Jags Jawaan Taylor / Jonah Williams / Cody Ford

If trade, Jags trade pick to Falcons or Bills who take Ed Oliver or Quinnen Williams here

Post Free Agency Team Needs: Jags OL, WR, RB, CB

Post Free Agency Team Needs: Falcons DT, DE, CB, K

Post Free Agency Team Needs: Bills DT, OL, DE, TE

 

Jags have an excellent DL. But their OL is in shambles. They need serious upgrades there to protect their investment in Foles (who is a pure pocket passer). They have been linked to Jawaan Taylor completely and save a trade will probably go OL here even if Quinnen Williams were available here. Given the three nice options they have on the OL, I suspect they are also a good candidate for Falcons or the Bills to trade up here and take a DT.

 

Pick 8: Lions Pick Devin White / Devin Bush / TJ Hockenson

Post Free Agency Team Needs: LB, TE, WR, QB (long term)

Matt Patricia adopts a multiple defense from a base 3-4 package (similar to what Rex used to run for us). The Lions defnse switched from a 4-3 last year – that 4-3 had enjoyed quite some success with Ansah, Suh etc. But last year they started horribly with a blowout loss to the Jets. But the mid-season pick up of Damon Harrison completely changed their Defense. Damon Harrison is the archetypal 3-4 NT and there is NO WAY the Lions pick a DT here (several of the national mocksters are mocking Oliver to them but I do not think that will happen). Patricia knows that the weak link last year was the LB corps. Given the steep drop off in LB talent and their acute need, I do not think they will agree to a trade and will likely go LB here. Devin Bush was neck and neck with Devin White at the combine and Mel Kiper laso has put him in as a 10^th overall prospect.

 

Besides Defense, the Lions have also been linked to Hockenson and Fant at the TE spot. Being from NE, he understands the value of a Gronk – so there is a good chance Lions go Hock here.

 

Where does that leave us?

 

Our needs are DT, OL, DE and TE (I do not think WR is such an acute need after spending all those dollars in FA). At DT, it appears more and more likely that Ed Oliver is going to be there. The only way he will not be there is if only one QB is taken in the top 8 AND the Falcons are willing to trade up to take Oliver. In such a case, Bills can still have the inside track to trade with the Jags since they have the higher pick and can pretty much guarantee Jags will have their pick of Olinemen. There is also an outised chance of Q. Williams being available. The draft order is set in such a way that right now the only teams picking ahead of us that really need Q. Williams are the Giants at #6. Even the Raiders are not badly off at DT. If the Giants go QB at #6 (that makes 3 QBs taken in the top 6), then Q. Williams can drop to 7 and chances are the Bills or the Falcons will grab him there. Then the Bills have the pleasant option of even fielding trade down offers. I am convinced Bills will likely trade down only if a QB run happens. There is a small chance Bills trade down with the Falcons – but given our needs are similar, I doubt it.

In case only one QB is taken in the top 8 (Q. Williams is gone) AND the Falcons trade up to take Oliver, then the Bills options at #9 will likely be TJ Hockenson, Jawaan Taylor Cody Ford or Jonah Williams. I doubt if the Bills will really trade down since only one QB had gone in the top 8 – so trade up demand will be weak.

 

Bottomline: I estimate our #9 pick will lead to the following possibilities (with chances in parentheses):

Ed Oliver (trade up or at #9) 60%

Quinnen Williams (trade up) 10%

Taylor / Ford / Williams 10%

Trade Down 10%

TJ Hockenson 5%

Others (Montez Sweat / Rashan Gary / Burns / Wilkins) 5%

 

Edited April 25, 2019 by IgotBILLStopay

[Aussie Joe]

24 hours to go people...

 

Shout it from the rooftops ...

[TAinLack.]

I hope I can get some sleep tonight!!!

[Big Blitz]

1. Cards:  Kyler Murray

2. 49ers:  Nick Bosa

3. Jets:  Josh Allen

4. Raiders:  Q Williams 

5. Bucs:  D. White

6. Giants:  Jonah Williams 

7. Bills trade with Jags:  Oliver (I think Detroit would take him thus the trade--Oliver is in the top 5 on our board; huge need; pounce!

8. Lions:  Hock

9. Jags:  Dillard

 

 

That's how this plays out.  

Edited April 25, 2019 by Big Blitz

[Big Blitz]

I think we might even trade up with the Giants to secure Oliver. 

 

Giants still get their choice of an LT at 9.  Or the QB.  

[mead107]

Every team before us will pick someone and then we will make our pick ???

[IgotBILLStopay]

15 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

1. Cards:  Kyler Murray

2. 49ers:  Nick Bosa

3. Jets:  Josh Allen

4. Raiders:  Q Williams 

5. Bucs:  D. White

6. Giants:  Jonah Williams 

7. Bills trade with Jags:  Oliver (I think Detroit would take him thus the trade--Oliver is in the top 5 on our board; huge need; pounce!

8. Lions:  Hock

9. Jags:  Dillard

 

 

That's how this plays out.  

Yup - that is perfectly consistent with one of the scenarios outlined in the OP.

10 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

I think we might even trade up with the Giants to secure Oliver. 

 

Giants still get their choice of an LT at 9.  Or the QB.  

Gettleman has never traded down before. But comfort with Beane and last year's criticism for not trading down and still landing Saquon Barkley might make him more open to a trade down this year. If a trade with Giants can happen, we may even have a shot at Quinnen Williams.

[Allen2Moulds]

I like it.  Thanks for putting this together,  I agree that it could very well play out this way.  I'm not buying the Jets interest in Oliver at 3.

[Big Blitz]

Yea my one of my 2 reservations are Gentleman's history.  And the other is will Doug Marrone trade with us?  I'm sure he has a major say down there.  

 

That being said.  If that order does not pan out (Jags or Giants don't trade but both go OT and Detroit takes Oliver) we still get Hock. 

 

Getting Oliver or Hock I'd be beyond thrilled.  

Edited April 25, 2019 by Big Blitz

[BobbyC81]

I wouldn’t totally rule out WR (Metcalf) but pick 9 may be too high for him.   I seem to have read a lot about his high upside but lack of experience and needing time to develop.  Haven’t some people said that Duke Williams had 1st round talent but it was his baggage that forced him to go to the CFL?  Anybody hear anything about how he’s doing in workouts?

 

8 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Yea my one of my 2 reservations are Gentleman's history.  And the other is will Doug Marrone trade with us?  I'm sure he has a major say down there.  

 

That being said.  If that order does not pan out (Jags or Giants don't trade but both go OT and Detroit takes Oliver) we still get Hock. 

 

Getting Oliver or Hock I'd be beyond thrilled.  

 

I could see Coughlin telling Saint Doug to ‘go pound sand’ if he was against trading with the Bills.  Who’s left from when he was with the Bills anyways?  New owners, Whaley and Brandon are gone, etc; nobody left to hold a grudge against.

Edited April 25, 2019 by ColeB

[mjt328]

I fully anticipate at least two, and maybe even three QBs going in the Top 10.

Either the teams already in those spots (Arizona, Oakland, NY Giants) will take them, or there will be trade-ups (Denver, Miami, Washington).

 

QB is too important of a position and GMs/coaches get fired too quickly to waste away full seasons banking on mediocre veterans.  I think teams are trying somewhat to hide their interest in the QBs, because they are fearing another team trading ahead.

 

Either way, I anticipate the Bills being in pretty good position tomorrow evening.  Either someone really good will fall to #9 they can't pass up, or they will be presented with a strong offer to move down a handful of slots and pickup another Day 2 pick.

 

 

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

9 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I fully anticipate at least two, and maybe even three QBs going in the Top 10.

Either the teams already in those spots (Arizona, Oakland, NY Giants) will take them, or there will be trade-ups (Denver, Miami, Washington).

 

QB is too important of a position and GMs/coaches get fired too quickly to waste away full seasons banking on mediocre veterans.  I think teams are trying somewhat to hide their interest in the QBs, because they are fearing another team trading ahead.

 

Either way, I anticipate the Bills being in pretty good position tomorrow evening.  Either someone really good will fall to #9 they can't pass up, or they will be presented with a strong offer to move down a handful of slots and pickup another Day 2 pick.

 

 

 

Yes I agree. 3 Qbs in the top 10 was my prediction too (in the bold predictions thread).

[GunnerBill]

Didn't want to start a new thread but here are the trade rumours buzzing on social media and forums around the interweb....

 

Teams trying to get up:

Redskins (QB)

Falcons (Ed Oliver)

Bills (Ed Oliver)

Houston (A tackle)

Packers (Dillard - allegedly they are calling teams they believe Houston are talking to and saying ring us before you sign off on anything with them)

Patriots (not sure on the player but supposed to be eyeing a pick in the early 20s)

 

Teams wanting to move back:

Jets

Buccs

Lions

Ravens

Titans

[Chandler#81]

OP, Really? You honestly felt this needed it’s own thread? 

Goddamn, I can’t wait for this to be over!

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

I think we might even trade up with the Giants to secure Oliver. 

 

Giants still get their choice of an LT at 9.  Or the QB.  

Good teams have the draft come to them.  The Bills need to stock with Good players...they need everyone of their draft pick.  

[Bill from NYC]

I don't know if this is legit but its pretty funny.

[billsredneck1]

11 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Yea my one of my 2 reservations are Gentleman's history.  And the other is will Doug Marrone trade with us?  I'm sure he has a major say down there.  

 

That being said.  If that order does not pan out (Jags or Giants don't trade but both go OT and Detroit takes Oliver) we still get Hock. 

 

Getting Oliver or Hock I'd be beyond thrilled.  

sorry this may have already been said but, i don't see why not....he walked away with a check and his beef was with whaley shoving e.j. down his throat.

11 hours ago, ColeB said:

 Haven’t some people said that Duke Williams had 1st round talent but it was his baggage that forced him to go to the CFL?  Anybody hear anything about how he’s doing in workouts?

i heard him on the radio and i'm sure this dude is gonna ball.  i think he's gonna look like moulds.

[CuddyDark]

12 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

1. Cards:  Kyler Murray

2. 49ers:  Nick Bosa

3. Jets:  Josh Allen

4. Raiders:  Q Williams 

5. Bucs:  D. White

6. Giants:  Jonah Williams 

7. Bills trade with Jags:  Oliver (I think Detroit would take him thus the trade--Oliver is in the top 5 on our board; huge need; pounce!

8. Lions:  Hock

9. Jags:  Dillard

 

 

That's how this plays out.  

Just understanding Tom Coughlin and the way he drafts, it would shock me if he didn't take Oliver himself. I could see and make a case for him taking everyone of the top 5 DT at 7.

[billsredneck1]

3 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

OP, Really? You honestly felt this needed it’s own thread? 

Goddamn, I can’t wait for this to be over!

must of been a rough night at the golf course to use that word.

1 hour ago, CuddyDark said:

Just understanding Tom Coughlin and the way he drafts, it would shock me if he didn't take Oliver himself. I could see and make a case for him taking everyone of the top 5 DT at 7.

i think a possibility would be a trade with atlanta. 9 for 14 and a 2nd....along with a trade for grady jarrett.

 

edit: oops i quoted the wrong statement.

Edited April 25, 2019 by billsredneck1

[maryland-bills-fan]

No trade up in the first.  Pick at #9 or even move down a few slots if there are a surplus of players that we figure are first tier. (e.g. if there 4 such players, we can move down 3 slots and still get one).  

 

We can go OT and then DT,    or      DT and then OL

 

If Devin White is there, we take him in the first and than a 3 technique DT in the second.

 

That is my plan.