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Bandit's Annual Mock


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1 hour ago, Mountain Man said:

Dexter Lawrence? No thanks. 

 

That's terrible value in a trade and its doubled down by reaching significantly

 

I'm assuming that you mean terrible value according to a draft trade chart?  I used Rich Hill's 1000-point base chart, and it's almost identical in terms of points.

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

As per usual, we have some agreement and some disagreement. I like the first trade and think the value is solid there. Less so for the second trade, as well as the player selected with it. Always enjoy and respect the time you put in during offseasons and the resulting banter we get. Cheers bandito :beer:

 

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Well thought out as always Bandit!! I’m not as high on Lawrence as I was a year ago at this time (maybe that’s a me problem). I’d probably lean toward Tillery at that point (despite the fact I loathe nerds). If they walked out of the 1st with Metcalf and a starting DT they should be thrilled.

 

Thanks gents.

 

1 hour ago, buffalostu2 said:

A lot of work put in here, especially with the trades.   I don't see how Simmons and Gary go 12 and 13 though.   Simmons is not a game changer and has an ACL and the visual.

 

I think both would be threats to go top-10 if not for injuries.  Simmons is a monster, and Gary is an absolute freak.

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloFan68 said:

Thanks Bandit!  

 

1 hour ago, DCbillsfan said:

Thanks Bandit.  I too think the Bills may draft Metcalf in the first.  I've been hoping all along that they'd get Oliver but it's sounding like he will be a top 5 pick.  Any thoughts on what they may do in 2nd round?    

 

No sweat.  Not sure what they'd do in round 2.  The way I have it falling, it's probably an OLmen if a guy like Tytus Howard is there.

 

29 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

If I had to guess, Bandit was trying to avoid looking like a homer with his valuation. If I'm crafting that trade it probably looks more like 9, 112, & 154 for 23, 54, &55. That would put them at a 5% premium, which is pretty standard for the back end of the top 10.

 

I generally try to stick to the chart and make it equal as long as the trade up isn't for a QB.  Even then, it depends on the situation.  I mean, in the Mahomes trade, the points on Rich Hill's chart are almost identical (if you assume that KC's pick will be the same in 2018 as 2017 and downgrade it by a round).

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3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I generally try to stick to the chart and make it equal as long as the trade up isn't for a QB.  Even then, it depends on the situation.  I mean, in the Mahomes trade, the points on Rich Hill's chart are almost identical (if you assume that KC's pick will be the same in 2018 as 2017 and downgrade it by a round).

Yeah, I like the base 100 one, but both are good. It also varies year to year. Considering the view of this class, those 2nd's are probably worth more than normal.

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2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

As many of you know, I do one (and only one) mock draft every year.  Some of you appreciate it, some of you loathe it, but (much to the pleasure of my ego) most of you read it. And so the tradition continues.

 

First a few disclaimers:

 

1. I’m not very good at predictions.  For instance, last year, I only correctly matched 2 teams and players in the first round.  I also correctly identified 26/32 first round picks, which is actually a bit above my typical average of 24.

 

2. What you see below does not represent what I would do if I were each team, but rather what I think will happen during the draft.

 

And remember, this is just for fun, so try not to be too harsh.  Now, without any further ado, I bring you Bandit’s annual mock. Feel free to comment, question, etc. as you see fit.

 

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray-QB/Oklahoma

 

I’m not buying into the late “it’s not Murray” hype. New coaches like to hand-pick their QBs, and Kliff Kingbury is on record as loving Murray. For an offense that finished dead last in the NFL in yards per game, total points, yards per play, first downs, and 3rd-down conversion rate, a dynamic talent like Murray, who lead the nation in YPA and scored 54 total TDs in 2018, would be an immediate shot in the arm.  He also represents GM Steve Keim’s Hail Mary to save his job, as getting the QB decision wrong in back-to-back seasons will certainly spell his doom.

 

2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa-EDGE/Ohio State

 

After investing heavily in the pass rush by drafting Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas in 3 consecutive drafts, and trading a high pick for Dee Ford in 2019, the selection of Bosa may appear to be a bit of a surprise. But when you play in a division with Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and now (presumably) Kyler Murray, you want to make sure that you get to the QB.  The ‘9ers finished with 37 sacks in 2018; only 7 teams had fewer. Like his brother before him, Bosa has shown an innate ability to pressure the QB from anywhere along the defense, and should help bolster a pass defense that allowed 35 passing TDs last season.

 

3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams-DL/Alabama

 

I don’t see any team being desperate enough to trade into the 3 slot, so the Jets stay put and make their pick, and it’s a pick that’s reminiscent of 2015.  Sure, the Jets have a solid DL rotation.  Sure, they finished middle-of-the-pack in sacks generated, YPA allowed, and passer rating against. But when you can’t find a dance partner, and the clock is winding down, there’s nothing wrong with drafting the best player on the board at a key position (which is what they did with Leonard Williams in 2015). Quinnen is a dominant force up front.  He had 19.5 TFLs and 8 sacks as a 21-year-old sophomore, and is widely regarded as a great kid.

 

4. Oakland Raiders: Drew Lock-QB/Missouri

 

I’m buying that the Raiders want to make a “shocker” of a pick, and for me, that’s a QB.  When I think about new GM Mike Mayock, I think about how much he loves big-armed QBs like Jay Cutler and Jamarcus Russell.  When I think about Jon Gruden, I remember how drawn he is to guys he coached in the senior bowl.  Put ‘em together and you get Drew Lock.  As I said with Arizona, coaches always want to pick their own QBs, and selling a new QB will be easier with Derek Carr coming off a career-low 19 TD passes in 2018.

 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ed Oliver-DT/Houston

 

Sorry, Bills’ fans.  Tampa Bay goes for an interior presence for a second-straight year and tabs Oliver, the draft’s best interior pass rusher. Gerald McCoy hasn’t been as productive in recent years, and 2018 first rounder Tevita Tuliakiono Tuipuloto Mosese Va'hae Faletau Vea (you knew I couldn’t pass up a chance) isn’t a reliable source of interior pressure.  Oliver is a freak of an athlete that was extremely productive in college, amassing 53.0 TFLs over 3 years at Houston. That type of disruptive ability will be a welcomed addition to a pass defense that allowed a league-high 110.9 rating to opposing QBs in 2018.

 

6. New York Giants: Josh Allen-EDGE/Kentucky

 

When you can’t rush the passer, and you trade away your best pass rusher, and the best years in franchise history only come when you have elite pass rushers in the fold, odds are pretty good that you’re going to take a pass rusher, especially if he’s the best player on the board.  Big Blue managed a paltry 30 sacks in 2018; only the Mack-less Raiders had fewer. Allen had 17.0 in his senior year alone, which has to get Dave Gettlemen excited about plugging him in next to 2018 third-rounder B.J. Hill, who flashed some serious interior ability as a rookie.

 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor-OT/Florida

 

I don’t like to echo what everyone else is saying, but Taylor to the Jaguars just makes way too much sense.  Aside from the fact that they released Jermey Parnell in the offseason, we know how much Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone love their big, mauling OLmen, and that’s Taylor to a tee.  I’ve always said that it’s not a great use of resources to pick a RT in the first round, but Taylor has the kind of nimble feet and contact balance that may allow him to move over to the LT spot in the future.  For a team that invested $22M per year in Nick Foles, they’ll want to make sure he’s as well-protected as possible.

 

8. Detroit Lions: T.J. Hockenson-TE/Iowa

 

Head Coach Matt Patricia was on staff in New England when the Patriots’ passing game featured the most feared dual-TE grouping in the modern era.  After having signed Jesse James in free agency, Patricia’s Lions have a chance to put together a similar duo by grabbing Hockenson, the consensus top TE in the class.  Hock is an every-down TE that can block your face in the dirt one play, and shake your best coverage LB on the next. He’d be a huge asset for a passing game that saw its entire TE position group amass 41 receptions combined in 2018.

 

**TRADE**

Houston trades picks 23, 54, and 55 to Buffalo for picks 9 and 74

 

9. Houston Texans: Jonah Williams-OT/Alabama

 

With the most dominant pass rushers (Bosa, Williams, Oliver and Allen) gone, Brandon Beane moves around the board again.  His former front-office cohort, Brian Gaine, is more than happy to move up and address an offensive line that allowed 62 sacks last season (that was the most in the NFL by over a 10% margin). Williams has been panned as a conversion candidate in the pros, but has all the confidence in the world that he can be an NFL left tackle.  If he can, he’ll be a huge upgrade over Julie’n Davenport. If he can’t, then perhaps he’ll kick inside and become the all-pro center (or guard) that your boisterous author believes he can.

 

10. Denver Broncos: Devin White-LB/LSU

 

What a steal for the Broncos, who have been making chicken salad at the ILB positions for a few seasons since letting Danny Trevathan walk in free agency.  There isn’t a thing that White can’t do on the football field, as evidenced by a Junior campaign that saw him accumulate 62 solo tackles, 12.0 TFLs, 3.0 sacks, 6 passes defensed, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries. He can handle his business in coverage, and would immediately become the defensive play-caller for Ed Donatell’s unit, providing them another playmaker in a front 7 that features elite pass-rushers Von Miller and 2018 first-rounder Bradley Chubb.

 

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Burns-EDGE/Florida State

 

Bengals’ personnel director Duke Tobin is one of the best in the business, and he’s not shy about drafting defensive playmakers when they fall into his lap.  Burns is a pass-rush specialist that had 10.0 sacks and 15.5 TFLs in 12 games as a Junior, so he’d fill a huge need on a Bengals team that finished the 2018 season ranked 28th in sacks, 26th in passer rating against, 27th in passing TDs allowed, and dead last in passing yards per game allowed.

 

12. Green Bay Packers: Jeffery Simmons-DT/Mississippi State

 

We can’t talk about Simmons without mentioning the very ugly incident that involved him punching a prone woman in the back of the head back in 2016. I’m sure that incident will stick in the back of some GM’s minds, but so too will his outstanding play on the field at Mississippi State.  That he’s been squeaky clean both on and off the field since his misstep should help to offset any fear regarding his torn ACL that will likely keep him off the field for part or all of 2019.  When he does get on the field, DC Mike Pettine will be drooling over what Simmons’ disruptive ability (evidenced by 30.0 TFLs over his final 2 NCAA seasons) can bring to his defensive front.

 

13. Miami Dolphins: Rashan Gary-DL/Michigan

 

Unless 2017 first-round pick Charles Harris emerges from his NFL performance coma, the Dolphins are staring into a serious lack of pass rush ability entering 2019.  After having success in developing Trey Flowers, a similar player, into an $18M/year pass rusher in New England, new head coach Brian Flores jumps at the chance to draft a stud athlete like Gary.  While he may miss some time or be limited by a shoulder injury, Gary’s raw athleticism and imposing frame are just begging to be maxed out by a coach that can get the most out of him. His detractors will tell you that he never put up great numbers, but his supporters will say he was injured or misused at Michigan.  We won’t know who’s right for a while, but we do know that incredible athletes at big-dollar positions get picked early, which is why Gary doesn’t last past this pick.

 

14. Atlanta Falcons: Christian Wilkins-DT/Clemson

 

While not quite as explosive as his fellow Clemson alumnus, current Atlanta DT Grady Jarrett, Wilkins’ size and violent hand usage portends similar potential to the Falcons’ franchise player. As a 4-year starter, Wilkins’ sack numbers have increased every season, and he’s been a consistent force as a penetrator along a star-studded defensive line.  NFL talent evaluators will need to feel good about how much of his production is a result of his own ability versus the benefit of playing with 3 other NFL-caliber players, but what likely tips the scales in his favor is his extremely high football character. Adding Wilkins to a DL that may lose Jarrett next offseason, and doesn’t have much behind him in terms interior pass rush, would make head coach Dan Quinn very happy.

 

15. Washington Redskins: Dwayne Haskins-QB/Ohio State

 

Not exactly the pick that Daniel Snyder envisioned after paying Alex Smith $93M just over a year ago, but when you need a QB, you draft a QB.  Why Haskins? He’s a prototypical pocket passer that is limited on experience, and could definitely benefit from a year of clipboard-holding behind veterans like Case Keenum and Colt McCoy. He also played high school in Potomac, Maryland, so being a local kid will likely ingratiate him with the fan base and earn him a grace period as he develops.

 

16. Carolina Panthers: Andre Dillard-OT/Washington State

 

I thought long and hard about giving them Oklahoma tackle Cody Ford, but in the end, pass protection will usually win out in the minds of NFL personnel men, and Dillard is the best pure pass protector in the tackle class.  The Panthers currently have Taylor Moton slated to start at LT, but he’s more suited to either the RT or LG role. Drafting Dillard, who started 39 games at LT for Washington State, would not only provide competition at LT, but would protect the Panthers in the event that OT Daryl Williams doesn’t return to form from injury or gets his big-money deal in free agency next offseason.

 

17. New York Giants (f/ Cle): Daniel Jones-QB/Duke

 

At some point, Dave Gettlemen is going to have to address the future of the QB position, so I’m giving them Jones.  Familiarity with QB coach David Cutcliffe wins out for the Giants, and while Jones may be considered a bit of a reach, guys like Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott have proven that there’s no such thing as a reach when it comes to hitting on a franchise QB. The biggest question facing Jones will be whether or not his arm can handle the boundary throws he’ll need to make on Sundays, but Pat Shurmur will have done a good job of surrounding him with speedy, shifty wideouts like Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate that make life easier for a QB that specializes in fast reads and ball-placement.

 

18. Minnesota Vikings: Cody Ford-OT/Oklahoma

 

What is it about Rick Spielman’s Vikings that they always seem to struggle to get the OL right? They’ve spent free agent money on Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers, they’ve spent draft picks on Pat Elflein and Brian O’Neill, and yet the 2018 offense still gave up 95 QB hits and averaged 4.2 yards per carry for the season.  Cody Ford can help in both departments.  He’s an earth-mover as a run-blocker, and is a surprisingly smooth mover in pass protection.  He’s played on both sides of the line, and at every position except center.  Ford is the kind of player you draft hoping that he can play tackle, but knowing that he can play guard.  And if you’re desperate to protect a QB to whom you gave a $91M, fully-guaranteed deal, he’s the kind of pick you just might make in the middle of round 1.

 

19. Tennessee Titans: Garrett Bradbury-C/North Carolina State

 

The Titans’ OL underachieved in Mike Vrabel’s first season as a head coach, allowing 47 sacks and being generally pedestrian in terms of power success.  Coming from a system in New England that places a premium on controlling the line of scrimmage, I could easily see Vrabel tabbing Bradbury as an immediate starter that would improve the entire unit. His combination of athleticism and play-recognition are rare for a college center, which means that Bradbury would combine with big-money free agent addition Rodger Saffold to once again make the Titan OL a force to be reckoned with.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Bush-LB/Michigan

 

Still looking to fill the gap created by Ryan Shazier’s unfortunate neck injury, the Steelers would jump at a chance to add an athletic LB like Bush, who fits a similar mold.  Despite being a bit undersized, Bush can cover (4 passes defensed as a Junior), tackle (41 solo tackles), and rush the passer (4.5 sacks).  Furthermore, he can learn from another very similar player in Mark Barron, who the Steelers brought in after his release from the Rams.

 

21. Seattle Seahawks: Greedy Williams-CB/LSU

 

The once proud Legion of Boom is a distant memory, as evidenced by the fact that the Seahawks recorded only 12 interceptions in 2018; a stark contrast to the 28 they had back in their heyday of 2013.  The Seattle secondary has tried to rebuild on the fly, but could really use some dedicated resources in the form of draft picks.  Enter Williams, the draft’s top corner, who is somehow still on the board.  He’s got the prototype Seahawk CB size at 6’2”, 185 lbs, and is versatile enough to play both press and off-style coverages. He’s not only an ideal fit for the team, he’s a great value at this point in the first round.

 

22. Buffalo Bills (f/ Hou): D.K. Metcalf-WR/Ole Miss

 

The Metcalf slide stops here.  Maybe Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott would’ve liked Metcalf enough to take him at 9 sans a trade suitor, but I’ll bet my last dollar that they like him enough at 22.  The Bills had a bit of luck with raw, hugely athletic first-rounders last year, and that description fits D.K. to a tee. If he can take advantage of his size, speed, and catch radius, Metcalf will give Josh Allen the WR1 that he needs to grow into a potential franchise QB.

 

**TRADE**

Buffalo trades picks 40 and 54 to Baltimore for pick 23

 

23. Buffalo Bills (f/ Bal): Dexter Lawrence-DT/Clemson

 

Even more dealing from Brandon Beane?  Sure, why not? When you’ve got 10 picks, and you accumulate more by moving down, it makes sense to use all of that ammunition to jump back up when you see a potentially elite talent still on the board.  It’s been widely speculated that Ravens’ GM Eric DeCosta wants to move down for more picks, and he’s got a trade history with Beane (look no further than last year’s move-down that landed Buffalo Tremaine Edmunds). So why Lawrence? Because he’s huge, athletic, and he fits the “if talent wins out” mentality to Beane’s first round picks.  If this kid maximizes his ability in the pros, he’ll be a pro bowl level interior defender for a long time.

 

24. Oakland Raiders (f/ Chi): Montez Sweat-EDGE/Mississippi State

 

The Raiders pass rush was absolutely putrid in 2018. How putrid? 13 sacks. In 16 games. Putrid might not even cover it.  So they take one of the picks they acquired in the Khalil Mack trade and add an EDGE defender with enormous upside in Montez Sweat, who is still on the board due to both health-related and character concerns.  Guys his build don’t come around often: 6’6”, 260 lbs, nearly 36” arms, 10.5” hands, 4.4 speed, and very productive as a Senior (14.5 TFLs and 11.5 sacks). He’s the kind of player that, if he stays healthy and keeps himself clean, people will look back and call the steal of the draft.

 

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Marquise Brown-WR/Oklahoma

 

GM Howie Roseman brought Desean Jackson back to Philly in an effort to inject some speed into Doug Pederson’s passing game. With Jackson in the twilight of his career, Roseman would likely pull a hamstring sprinting to the podium for Hollywood Brown, who is a very similar player to Jackson. Slight of build at 5’9”, 166 lbs, Brown has been electric catching passes from Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, totaling 135 receptions, 2,413 yards, and 17 TDs in the last 2 seasons. He’d immediately give Carson Wentz a true deep threat, which would open up the short and intermediate passing game for Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery.

 

26. Indianapolis Colts: Rock Ya-Sin-CB/Temple

 

Indianapolis chose to re-sign over-achieving corner Pierre Desir in free agency, but the depth of their secondary beyond him is a bit scary. Nate Hairston and Quincy Wilson haven’t lived up to their draft statuses, and Kenny Moore is a waiver-wire pickup that hasn’t been anything special.  Ya-Sin is raw, but he’s got size, speed, length, and tenacity.  He challenges WRs and takes extremely well to coaching.  He’s a Frank Reich kind of player if ever there was such a guy, and while there are CBs that are more NFL-ready, he’s got the potential to be a true CB1 in a year or two.

 

27. Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs-RB/Alabama

 

Jacobs is probably too good a player to fall this far, but in this speed-rules-all age, running backs that don’t crack 4.6 in the 40 tend to fall on draft day.  We know how much Jon Gruden loves to pound the rock, so it makes sense for him to take a bell-cow back when he falls to them.  Jacobs can run between the tackles, but also possesses solidly above-average receiving skills.  He’s a 3-down back that can add another dimension to an offense that is taking on a whole new identity, and breathe life into a running game that finished 25th in yards per game and 27th in rushes of 20+ yards in 2018.

 

**TRADE**

New England trades pick 32 and pick 101 to Los Angeles Chargers for pick 28

 

28. New England Patriots (f/ LAC): Parris Campbell-WR/Ohio State

 

There are question marks all over the Patriots’ group of pass-catchers, so a team that’s in win-more-championships-now mode makes a move up the board.  Campbell is the exact type of WR that Belichick and Brady love: fast, versatile, high football character, and played at a big-time program. He can run the option routes that Josh McDaniels’ offense features, and can contribute as a return man as well.  More importantly, he injects some speed into a passing game that’s sorely lacking a consistent deep threat.

 

29. Seattle Seahawks (f/ KC): Jerry Tillery-DL/Notre Dame

 

GM John Schneider uses the pick acquired from the Frank Clark trade to add some pop to his front-7.  Tillery is a great match for what the Seahawks like in their DLmen: size, length, nasty demeanor, versatile, and productive.  He showed his potential as a Senior, amassing 10.5 TFLs and 8.0 sacks in 13 games, and would pair with Jarran Reed to make a formidable tandem in Pete Carroll’s defensive front.

 

30. Green Bay Packers (f/ NO): Noah Fant-TE/Iowa

 

The Jimmy Graham acquisition didn’t go as planned for Mike McCarthy’s Packers in 2018, as he hauled in only 55 of 89 targets and scored only 2 TDs.  With Matt LaFleur now at the helm, we’re told we should expect some changes to the Green Bay offense.  They can start by adding a young playmaker at the tight end position to be the guy that Graham couldn’t.  Fant has the highly-coveted size/speed ratio that makes coaches drool, while also possessing the basketball traits that QBs often regard as essential in a red zone target.  If he can pick up the offense quickly, Fant should contribute early on in his NFL career.

 

**TRADE**

New York Giants trade pick 37 and pick 95 for pick 31 and pick 169

 

31. New York Giants (f/ LAR): Dalton Risner-OT/Kansas State

 

Dave Gettlemen typically isn’t a trader, but here lies a chance to grab a versatile, talented OLman that can fill a much-needed hole along the offensive line.  Risner has shown that he can play any position along the OL, and plugging him in at either center or right tackle would go a long way in completing an overhaul of the front 5, as neither John Halapio or Chad Wheeler are the kind of guys you want protecting your young QB or blocking for your stud RB.

 

32. Los Angeles Chargers (f/ NE): Deandre Baker-CB/Georgia

 

Gus Bradley’s defense has been great against the pass, but their CB depth is thin behind Casey Heyward and Desmond King.  Baker is a sticky coverage corner that has a nose for the football, and loves to compete. He’s also a very competent run defender, which is a trait that Bradley always seemed to covet in his corners in Seattle and Jacksonville. While he’s a bit small for a boundary corner, the Chargers have had success with smaller players like King and Jason Verrett in the past, so there’s no reason to think that Baker would be any different.

 

My man, getting Metcalf and Lawrence would sensational

 

 

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2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

As many of you know, I do one (and only one) mock draft every year.  Some of you appreciate it, some of you loathe it, but (much to the pleasure of my ego) most of you read it. And so the tradition continues.

 

First a few disclaimers:

 

1. I’m not very good at predictions.  For instance, last year, I only correctly matched 2 teams and players in the first round.  I also correctly identified 26/32 first round picks, which is actually a bit above my typical average of 24.

 

2. What you see below does not represent what I would do if I were each team, but rather what I think will happen during the draft.

 

And remember, this is just for fun, so try not to be too harsh.  Now, without any further ado, I bring you Bandit’s annual mock. Feel free to comment, question, etc. as you see fit.

 

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray-QB/Oklahoma

 

I’m not buying into the late “it’s not Murray” hype. New coaches like to hand-pick their QBs, and Kliff Kingbury is on record as loving Murray. For an offense that finished dead last in the NFL in yards per game, total points, yards per play, first downs, and 3rd-down conversion rate, a dynamic talent like Murray, who lead the nation in YPA and scored 54 total TDs in 2018, would be an immediate shot in the arm.  He also represents GM Steve Keim’s Hail Mary to save his job, as getting the QB decision wrong in back-to-back seasons will certainly spell his doom.

 

2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa-EDGE/Ohio State

 

After investing heavily in the pass rush by drafting Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas in 3 consecutive drafts, and trading a high pick for Dee Ford in 2019, the selection of Bosa may appear to be a bit of a surprise. But when you play in a division with Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and now (presumably) Kyler Murray, you want to make sure that you get to the QB.  The ‘9ers finished with 37 sacks in 2018; only 7 teams had fewer. Like his brother before him, Bosa has shown an innate ability to pressure the QB from anywhere along the defense, and should help bolster a pass defense that allowed 35 passing TDs last season.

 

3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams-DL/Alabama

 

I don’t see any team being desperate enough to trade into the 3 slot, so the Jets stay put and make their pick, and it’s a pick that’s reminiscent of 2015.  Sure, the Jets have a solid DL rotation.  Sure, they finished middle-of-the-pack in sacks generated, YPA allowed, and passer rating against. But when you can’t find a dance partner, and the clock is winding down, there’s nothing wrong with drafting the best player on the board at a key position (which is what they did with Leonard Williams in 2015). Quinnen is a dominant force up front.  He had 19.5 TFLs and 8 sacks as a 21-year-old sophomore, and is widely regarded as a great kid.

 

4. Oakland Raiders: Drew Lock-QB/Missouri

 

I’m buying that the Raiders want to make a “shocker” of a pick, and for me, that’s a QB.  When I think about new GM Mike Mayock, I think about how much he loves big-armed QBs like Jay Cutler and Jamarcus Russell.  When I think about Jon Gruden, I remember how drawn he is to guys he coached in the senior bowl.  Put ‘em together and you get Drew Lock.  As I said with Arizona, coaches always want to pick their own QBs, and selling a new QB will be easier with Derek Carr coming off a career-low 19 TD passes in 2018.

 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ed Oliver-DT/Houston

 

Sorry, Bills’ fans.  Tampa Bay goes for an interior presence for a second-straight year and tabs Oliver, the draft’s best interior pass rusher. Gerald McCoy hasn’t been as productive in recent years, and 2018 first rounder Tevita Tuliakiono Tuipuloto Mosese Va'hae Faletau Vea (you knew I couldn’t pass up a chance) isn’t a reliable source of interior pressure.  Oliver is a freak of an athlete that was extremely productive in college, amassing 53.0 TFLs over 3 years at Houston. That type of disruptive ability will be a welcomed addition to a pass defense that allowed a league-high 110.9 rating to opposing QBs in 2018.

 

6. New York Giants: Josh Allen-EDGE/Kentucky

 

When you can’t rush the passer, and you trade away your best pass rusher, and the best years in franchise history only come when you have elite pass rushers in the fold, odds are pretty good that you’re going to take a pass rusher, especially if he’s the best player on the board.  Big Blue managed a paltry 30 sacks in 2018; only the Mack-less Raiders had fewer. Allen had 17.0 in his senior year alone, which has to get Dave Gettlemen excited about plugging him in next to 2018 third-rounder B.J. Hill, who flashed some serious interior ability as a rookie.

 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor-OT/Florida

 

I don’t like to echo what everyone else is saying, but Taylor to the Jaguars just makes way too much sense.  Aside from the fact that they released Jermey Parnell in the offseason, we know how much Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone love their big, mauling OLmen, and that’s Taylor to a tee.  I’ve always said that it’s not a great use of resources to pick a RT in the first round, but Taylor has the kind of nimble feet and contact balance that may allow him to move over to the LT spot in the future.  For a team that invested $22M per year in Nick Foles, they’ll want to make sure he’s as well-protected as possible.

 

8. Detroit Lions: T.J. Hockenson-TE/Iowa

 

Head Coach Matt Patricia was on staff in New England when the Patriots’ passing game featured the most feared dual-TE grouping in the modern era.  After having signed Jesse James in free agency, Patricia’s Lions have a chance to put together a similar duo by grabbing Hockenson, the consensus top TE in the class.  Hock is an every-down TE that can block your face in the dirt one play, and shake your best coverage LB on the next. He’d be a huge asset for a passing game that saw its entire TE position group amass 41 receptions combined in 2018.

 

**TRADE**

Houston trades picks 23, 54, and 55 to Buffalo for picks 9 and 74

 

9. Houston Texans: Jonah Williams-OT/Alabama

 

With the most dominant pass rushers (Bosa, Williams, Oliver and Allen) gone, Brandon Beane moves around the board again.  His former front-office cohort, Brian Gaine, is more than happy to move up and address an offensive line that allowed 62 sacks last season (that was the most in the NFL by over a 10% margin). Williams has been panned as a conversion candidate in the pros, but has all the confidence in the world that he can be an NFL left tackle.  If he can, he’ll be a huge upgrade over Julie’n Davenport. If he can’t, then perhaps he’ll kick inside and become the all-pro center (or guard) that your boisterous author believes he can.

 

10. Denver Broncos: Devin White-LB/LSU

 

What a steal for the Broncos, who have been making chicken salad at the ILB positions for a few seasons since letting Danny Trevathan walk in free agency.  There isn’t a thing that White can’t do on the football field, as evidenced by a Junior campaign that saw him accumulate 62 solo tackles, 12.0 TFLs, 3.0 sacks, 6 passes defensed, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries. He can handle his business in coverage, and would immediately become the defensive play-caller for Ed Donatell’s unit, providing them another playmaker in a front 7 that features elite pass-rushers Von Miller and 2018 first-rounder Bradley Chubb.

 

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Burns-EDGE/Florida State

 

Bengals’ personnel director Duke Tobin is one of the best in the business, and he’s not shy about drafting defensive playmakers when they fall into his lap.  Burns is a pass-rush specialist that had 10.0 sacks and 15.5 TFLs in 12 games as a Junior, so he’d fill a huge need on a Bengals team that finished the 2018 season ranked 28th in sacks, 26th in passer rating against, 27th in passing TDs allowed, and dead last in passing yards per game allowed.

 

12. Green Bay Packers: Jeffery Simmons-DT/Mississippi State

 

We can’t talk about Simmons without mentioning the very ugly incident that involved him punching a prone woman in the back of the head back in 2016. I’m sure that incident will stick in the back of some GM’s minds, but so too will his outstanding play on the field at Mississippi State.  That he’s been squeaky clean both on and off the field since his misstep should help to offset any fear regarding his torn ACL that will likely keep him off the field for part or all of 2019.  When he does get on the field, DC Mike Pettine will be drooling over what Simmons’ disruptive ability (evidenced by 30.0 TFLs over his final 2 NCAA seasons) can bring to his defensive front.

 

13. Miami Dolphins: Rashan Gary-DL/Michigan

 

Unless 2017 first-round pick Charles Harris emerges from his NFL performance coma, the Dolphins are staring into a serious lack of pass rush ability entering 2019.  After having success in developing Trey Flowers, a similar player, into an $18M/year pass rusher in New England, new head coach Brian Flores jumps at the chance to draft a stud athlete like Gary.  While he may miss some time or be limited by a shoulder injury, Gary’s raw athleticism and imposing frame are just begging to be maxed out by a coach that can get the most out of him. His detractors will tell you that he never put up great numbers, but his supporters will say he was injured or misused at Michigan.  We won’t know who’s right for a while, but we do know that incredible athletes at big-dollar positions get picked early, which is why Gary doesn’t last past this pick.

 

14. Atlanta Falcons: Christian Wilkins-DT/Clemson

 

While not quite as explosive as his fellow Clemson alumnus, current Atlanta DT Grady Jarrett, Wilkins’ size and violent hand usage portends similar potential to the Falcons’ franchise player. As a 4-year starter, Wilkins’ sack numbers have increased every season, and he’s been a consistent force as a penetrator along a star-studded defensive line.  NFL talent evaluators will need to feel good about how much of his production is a result of his own ability versus the benefit of playing with 3 other NFL-caliber players, but what likely tips the scales in his favor is his extremely high football character. Adding Wilkins to a DL that may lose Jarrett next offseason, and doesn’t have much behind him in terms interior pass rush, would make head coach Dan Quinn very happy.

 

15. Washington Redskins: Dwayne Haskins-QB/Ohio State

 

Not exactly the pick that Daniel Snyder envisioned after paying Alex Smith $93M just over a year ago, but when you need a QB, you draft a QB.  Why Haskins? He’s a prototypical pocket passer that is limited on experience, and could definitely benefit from a year of clipboard-holding behind veterans like Case Keenum and Colt McCoy. He also played high school in Potomac, Maryland, so being a local kid will likely ingratiate him with the fan base and earn him a grace period as he develops.

 

16. Carolina Panthers: Andre Dillard-OT/Washington State

 

I thought long and hard about giving them Oklahoma tackle Cody Ford, but in the end, pass protection will usually win out in the minds of NFL personnel men, and Dillard is the best pure pass protector in the tackle class.  The Panthers currently have Taylor Moton slated to start at LT, but he’s more suited to either the RT or LG role. Drafting Dillard, who started 39 games at LT for Washington State, would not only provide competition at LT, but would protect the Panthers in the event that OT Daryl Williams doesn’t return to form from injury or gets his big-money deal in free agency next offseason.

 

17. New York Giants (f/ Cle): Daniel Jones-QB/Duke

 

At some point, Dave Gettlemen is going to have to address the future of the QB position, so I’m giving them Jones.  Familiarity with QB coach David Cutcliffe wins out for the Giants, and while Jones may be considered a bit of a reach, guys like Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott have proven that there’s no such thing as a reach when it comes to hitting on a franchise QB. The biggest question facing Jones will be whether or not his arm can handle the boundary throws he’ll need to make on Sundays, but Pat Shurmur will have done a good job of surrounding him with speedy, shifty wideouts like Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate that make life easier for a QB that specializes in fast reads and ball-placement.

 

18. Minnesota Vikings: Cody Ford-OT/Oklahoma

 

What is it about Rick Spielman’s Vikings that they always seem to struggle to get the OL right? They’ve spent free agent money on Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers, they’ve spent draft picks on Pat Elflein and Brian O’Neill, and yet the 2018 offense still gave up 95 QB hits and averaged 4.2 yards per carry for the season.  Cody Ford can help in both departments.  He’s an earth-mover as a run-blocker, and is a surprisingly smooth mover in pass protection.  He’s played on both sides of the line, and at every position except center.  Ford is the kind of player you draft hoping that he can play tackle, but knowing that he can play guard.  And if you’re desperate to protect a QB to whom you gave a $91M, fully-guaranteed deal, he’s the kind of pick you just might make in the middle of round 1.

 

19. Tennessee Titans: Garrett Bradbury-C/North Carolina State

 

The Titans’ OL underachieved in Mike Vrabel’s first season as a head coach, allowing 47 sacks and being generally pedestrian in terms of power success.  Coming from a system in New England that places a premium on controlling the line of scrimmage, I could easily see Vrabel tabbing Bradbury as an immediate starter that would improve the entire unit. His combination of athleticism and play-recognition are rare for a college center, which means that Bradbury would combine with big-money free agent addition Rodger Saffold to once again make the Titan OL a force to be reckoned with.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Bush-LB/Michigan

 

Still looking to fill the gap created by Ryan Shazier’s unfortunate neck injury, the Steelers would jump at a chance to add an athletic LB like Bush, who fits a similar mold.  Despite being a bit undersized, Bush can cover (4 passes defensed as a Junior), tackle (41 solo tackles), and rush the passer (4.5 sacks).  Furthermore, he can learn from another very similar player in Mark Barron, who the Steelers brought in after his release from the Rams.

 

21. Seattle Seahawks: Greedy Williams-CB/LSU

 

The once proud Legion of Boom is a distant memory, as evidenced by the fact that the Seahawks recorded only 12 interceptions in 2018; a stark contrast to the 28 they had back in their heyday of 2013.  The Seattle secondary has tried to rebuild on the fly, but could really use some dedicated resources in the form of draft picks.  Enter Williams, the draft’s top corner, who is somehow still on the board.  He’s got the prototype Seahawk CB size at 6’2”, 185 lbs, and is versatile enough to play both press and off-style coverages. He’s not only an ideal fit for the team, he’s a great value at this point in the first round.

 

22. Buffalo Bills (f/ Hou): D.K. Metcalf-WR/Ole Miss

 

The Metcalf slide stops here.  Maybe Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott would’ve liked Metcalf enough to take him at 9 sans a trade suitor, but I’ll bet my last dollar that they like him enough at 22.  The Bills had a bit of luck with raw, hugely athletic first-rounders last year, and that description fits D.K. to a tee. If he can take advantage of his size, speed, and catch radius, Metcalf will give Josh Allen the WR1 that he needs to grow into a potential franchise QB.

 

**TRADE**

Buffalo trades picks 40 and 54 to Baltimore for pick 23

 

23. Buffalo Bills (f/ Bal): Dexter Lawrence-DT/Clemson

 

Even more dealing from Brandon Beane?  Sure, why not? When you’ve got 10 picks, and you accumulate more by moving down, it makes sense to use all of that ammunition to jump back up when you see a potentially elite talent still on the board.  It’s been widely speculated that Ravens’ GM Eric DeCosta wants to move down for more picks, and he’s got a trade history with Beane (look no further than last year’s move-down that landed Buffalo Tremaine Edmunds). So why Lawrence? Because he’s huge, athletic, and he fits the “if talent wins out” mentality to Beane’s first round picks.  If this kid maximizes his ability in the pros, he’ll be a pro bowl level interior defender for a long time.

 

24. Oakland Raiders (f/ Chi): Montez Sweat-EDGE/Mississippi State

 

The Raiders pass rush was absolutely putrid in 2018. How putrid? 13 sacks. In 16 games. Putrid might not even cover it.  So they take one of the picks they acquired in the Khalil Mack trade and add an EDGE defender with enormous upside in Montez Sweat, who is still on the board due to both health-related and character concerns.  Guys his build don’t come around often: 6’6”, 260 lbs, nearly 36” arms, 10.5” hands, 4.4 speed, and very productive as a Senior (14.5 TFLs and 11.5 sacks). He’s the kind of player that, if he stays healthy and keeps himself clean, people will look back and call the steal of the draft.

 

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Marquise Brown-WR/Oklahoma

 

GM Howie Roseman brought Desean Jackson back to Philly in an effort to inject some speed into Doug Pederson’s passing game. With Jackson in the twilight of his career, Roseman would likely pull a hamstring sprinting to the podium for Hollywood Brown, who is a very similar player to Jackson. Slight of build at 5’9”, 166 lbs, Brown has been electric catching passes from Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, totaling 135 receptions, 2,413 yards, and 17 TDs in the last 2 seasons. He’d immediately give Carson Wentz a true deep threat, which would open up the short and intermediate passing game for Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery.

 

26. Indianapolis Colts: Rock Ya-Sin-CB/Temple

 

Indianapolis chose to re-sign over-achieving corner Pierre Desir in free agency, but the depth of their secondary beyond him is a bit scary. Nate Hairston and Quincy Wilson haven’t lived up to their draft statuses, and Kenny Moore is a waiver-wire pickup that hasn’t been anything special.  Ya-Sin is raw, but he’s got size, speed, length, and tenacity.  He challenges WRs and takes extremely well to coaching.  He’s a Frank Reich kind of player if ever there was such a guy, and while there are CBs that are more NFL-ready, he’s got the potential to be a true CB1 in a year or two.

 

27. Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs-RB/Alabama

 

Jacobs is probably too good a player to fall this far, but in this speed-rules-all age, running backs that don’t crack 4.6 in the 40 tend to fall on draft day.  We know how much Jon Gruden loves to pound the rock, so it makes sense for him to take a bell-cow back when he falls to them.  Jacobs can run between the tackles, but also possesses solidly above-average receiving skills.  He’s a 3-down back that can add another dimension to an offense that is taking on a whole new identity, and breathe life into a running game that finished 25th in yards per game and 27th in rushes of 20+ yards in 2018.

 

**TRADE**

New England trades pick 32 and pick 101 to Los Angeles Chargers for pick 28

 

28. New England Patriots (f/ LAC): Parris Campbell-WR/Ohio State

 

There are question marks all over the Patriots’ group of pass-catchers, so a team that’s in win-more-championships-now mode makes a move up the board.  Campbell is the exact type of WR that Belichick and Brady love: fast, versatile, high football character, and played at a big-time program. He can run the option routes that Josh McDaniels’ offense features, and can contribute as a return man as well.  More importantly, he injects some speed into a passing game that’s sorely lacking a consistent deep threat.

 

29. Seattle Seahawks (f/ KC): Jerry Tillery-DL/Notre Dame

 

GM John Schneider uses the pick acquired from the Frank Clark trade to add some pop to his front-7.  Tillery is a great match for what the Seahawks like in their DLmen: size, length, nasty demeanor, versatile, and productive.  He showed his potential as a Senior, amassing 10.5 TFLs and 8.0 sacks in 13 games, and would pair with Jarran Reed to make a formidable tandem in Pete Carroll’s defensive front.

 

30. Green Bay Packers (f/ NO): Noah Fant-TE/Iowa

 

The Jimmy Graham acquisition didn’t go as planned for Mike McCarthy’s Packers in 2018, as he hauled in only 55 of 89 targets and scored only 2 TDs.  With Matt LaFleur now at the helm, we’re told we should expect some changes to the Green Bay offense.  They can start by adding a young playmaker at the tight end position to be the guy that Graham couldn’t.  Fant has the highly-coveted size/speed ratio that makes coaches drool, while also possessing the basketball traits that QBs often regard as essential in a red zone target.  If he can pick up the offense quickly, Fant should contribute early on in his NFL career.

 

**TRADE**

New York Giants trade pick 37 and pick 95 for pick 31 and pick 169

 

31. New York Giants (f/ LAR): Dalton Risner-OT/Kansas State

 

Dave Gettlemen typically isn’t a trader, but here lies a chance to grab a versatile, talented OLman that can fill a much-needed hole along the offensive line.  Risner has shown that he can play any position along the OL, and plugging him in at either center or right tackle would go a long way in completing an overhaul of the front 5, as neither John Halapio or Chad Wheeler are the kind of guys you want protecting your young QB or blocking for your stud RB.

 

32. Los Angeles Chargers (f/ NE): Deandre Baker-CB/Georgia

 

Gus Bradley’s defense has been great against the pass, but their CB depth is thin behind Casey Heyward and Desmond King.  Baker is a sticky coverage corner that has a nose for the football, and loves to compete. He’s also a very competent run defender, which is a trait that Bradley always seemed to covet in his corners in Seattle and Jacksonville. While he’s a bit small for a boundary corner, the Chargers have had success with smaller players like King and Jason Verrett in the past, so there’s no reason to think that Baker would be any different.

This would NOT suck. :)

 

Thank you for putting that together.  Although... Devin White would be pretty tempting at 9... :)

 

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2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

As many of you know, I do one (and only one) mock draft every year.  Some of you appreciate it, some of you loathe it, but (much to the pleasure of my ego) most of you read it. And so the tradition continues.

 

First a few disclaimers:

 

1. I’m not very good at predictions.  For instance, last year, I only correctly matched 2 teams and players in the first round.  I also correctly identified 26/32 first round picks, which is actually a bit above my typical average of 24.

 

2. What you see below does not represent what I would do if I were each team, but rather what I think will happen during the draft.

 

And remember, this is just for fun, so try not to be too harsh.  Now, without any further ado, I bring you Bandit’s annual mock. Feel free to comment, question, etc. as you see fit.

 

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray-QB/Oklahoma

 

I’m not buying into the late “it’s not Murray” hype. New coaches like to hand-pick their QBs, and Kliff Kingbury is on record as loving Murray. For an offense that finished dead last in the NFL in yards per game, total points, yards per play, first downs, and 3rd-down conversion rate, a dynamic talent like Murray, who lead the nation in YPA and scored 54 total TDs in 2018, would be an immediate shot in the arm.  He also represents GM Steve Keim’s Hail Mary to save his job, as getting the QB decision wrong in back-to-back seasons will certainly spell his doom.

 

2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa-EDGE/Ohio State

 

After investing heavily in the pass rush by drafting Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas in 3 consecutive drafts, and trading a high pick for Dee Ford in 2019, the selection of Bosa may appear to be a bit of a surprise. But when you play in a division with Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and now (presumably) Kyler Murray, you want to make sure that you get to the QB.  The ‘9ers finished with 37 sacks in 2018; only 7 teams had fewer. Like his brother before him, Bosa has shown an innate ability to pressure the QB from anywhere along the defense, and should help bolster a pass defense that allowed 35 passing TDs last season.

 

3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams-DL/Alabama

 

I don’t see any team being desperate enough to trade into the 3 slot, so the Jets stay put and make their pick, and it’s a pick that’s reminiscent of 2015.  Sure, the Jets have a solid DL rotation.  Sure, they finished middle-of-the-pack in sacks generated, YPA allowed, and passer rating against. But when you can’t find a dance partner, and the clock is winding down, there’s nothing wrong with drafting the best player on the board at a key position (which is what they did with Leonard Williams in 2015). Quinnen is a dominant force up front.  He had 19.5 TFLs and 8 sacks as a 21-year-old sophomore, and is widely regarded as a great kid.

 

4. Oakland Raiders: Drew Lock-QB/Missouri

 

I’m buying that the Raiders want to make a “shocker” of a pick, and for me, that’s a QB.  When I think about new GM Mike Mayock, I think about how much he loves big-armed QBs like Jay Cutler and Jamarcus Russell.  When I think about Jon Gruden, I remember how drawn he is to guys he coached in the senior bowl.  Put ‘em together and you get Drew Lock.  As I said with Arizona, coaches always want to pick their own QBs, and selling a new QB will be easier with Derek Carr coming off a career-low 19 TD passes in 2018.

 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ed Oliver-DT/Houston

 

Sorry, Bills’ fans.  Tampa Bay goes for an interior presence for a second-straight year and tabs Oliver, the draft’s best interior pass rusher. Gerald McCoy hasn’t been as productive in recent years, and 2018 first rounder Tevita Tuliakiono Tuipuloto Mosese Va'hae Faletau Vea (you knew I couldn’t pass up a chance) isn’t a reliable source of interior pressure.  Oliver is a freak of an athlete that was extremely productive in college, amassing 53.0 TFLs over 3 years at Houston. That type of disruptive ability will be a welcomed addition to a pass defense that allowed a league-high 110.9 rating to opposing QBs in 2018.

 

6. New York Giants: Josh Allen-EDGE/Kentucky

 

When you can’t rush the passer, and you trade away your best pass rusher, and the best years in franchise history only come when you have elite pass rushers in the fold, odds are pretty good that you’re going to take a pass rusher, especially if he’s the best player on the board.  Big Blue managed a paltry 30 sacks in 2018; only the Mack-less Raiders had fewer. Allen had 17.0 in his senior year alone, which has to get Dave Gettlemen excited about plugging him in next to 2018 third-rounder B.J. Hill, who flashed some serious interior ability as a rookie.

 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor-OT/Florida

 

I don’t like to echo what everyone else is saying, but Taylor to the Jaguars just makes way too much sense.  Aside from the fact that they released Jermey Parnell in the offseason, we know how much Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone love their big, mauling OLmen, and that’s Taylor to a tee.  I’ve always said that it’s not a great use of resources to pick a RT in the first round, but Taylor has the kind of nimble feet and contact balance that may allow him to move over to the LT spot in the future.  For a team that invested $22M per year in Nick Foles, they’ll want to make sure he’s as well-protected as possible.

 

8. Detroit Lions: T.J. Hockenson-TE/Iowa

 

Head Coach Matt Patricia was on staff in New England when the Patriots’ passing game featured the most feared dual-TE grouping in the modern era.  After having signed Jesse James in free agency, Patricia’s Lions have a chance to put together a similar duo by grabbing Hockenson, the consensus top TE in the class.  Hock is an every-down TE that can block your face in the dirt one play, and shake your best coverage LB on the next. He’d be a huge asset for a passing game that saw its entire TE position group amass 41 receptions combined in 2018.

 

**TRADE**

Houston trades picks 23, 54, and 55 to Buffalo for picks 9 and 74

 

9. Houston Texans: Jonah Williams-OT/Alabama

 

With the most dominant pass rushers (Bosa, Williams, Oliver and Allen) gone, Brandon Beane moves around the board again.  His former front-office cohort, Brian Gaine, is more than happy to move up and address an offensive line that allowed 62 sacks last season (that was the most in the NFL by over a 10% margin). Williams has been panned as a conversion candidate in the pros, but has all the confidence in the world that he can be an NFL left tackle.  If he can, he’ll be a huge upgrade over Julie’n Davenport. If he can’t, then perhaps he’ll kick inside and become the all-pro center (or guard) that your boisterous author believes he can.

 

10. Denver Broncos: Devin White-LB/LSU

 

What a steal for the Broncos, who have been making chicken salad at the ILB positions for a few seasons since letting Danny Trevathan walk in free agency.  There isn’t a thing that White can’t do on the football field, as evidenced by a Junior campaign that saw him accumulate 62 solo tackles, 12.0 TFLs, 3.0 sacks, 6 passes defensed, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries. He can handle his business in coverage, and would immediately become the defensive play-caller for Ed Donatell’s unit, providing them another playmaker in a front 7 that features elite pass-rushers Von Miller and 2018 first-rounder Bradley Chubb.

 

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Burns-EDGE/Florida State

 

Bengals’ personnel director Duke Tobin is one of the best in the business, and he’s not shy about drafting defensive playmakers when they fall into his lap.  Burns is a pass-rush specialist that had 10.0 sacks and 15.5 TFLs in 12 games as a Junior, so he’d fill a huge need on a Bengals team that finished the 2018 season ranked 28th in sacks, 26th in passer rating against, 27th in passing TDs allowed, and dead last in passing yards per game allowed.

 

12. Green Bay Packers: Jeffery Simmons-DT/Mississippi State

 

We can’t talk about Simmons without mentioning the very ugly incident that involved him punching a prone woman in the back of the head back in 2016. I’m sure that incident will stick in the back of some GM’s minds, but so too will his outstanding play on the field at Mississippi State.  That he’s been squeaky clean both on and off the field since his misstep should help to offset any fear regarding his torn ACL that will likely keep him off the field for part or all of 2019.  When he does get on the field, DC Mike Pettine will be drooling over what Simmons’ disruptive ability (evidenced by 30.0 TFLs over his final 2 NCAA seasons) can bring to his defensive front.

 

13. Miami Dolphins: Rashan Gary-DL/Michigan

 

Unless 2017 first-round pick Charles Harris emerges from his NFL performance coma, the Dolphins are staring into a serious lack of pass rush ability entering 2019.  After having success in developing Trey Flowers, a similar player, into an $18M/year pass rusher in New England, new head coach Brian Flores jumps at the chance to draft a stud athlete like Gary.  While he may miss some time or be limited by a shoulder injury, Gary’s raw athleticism and imposing frame are just begging to be maxed out by a coach that can get the most out of him. His detractors will tell you that he never put up great numbers, but his supporters will say he was injured or misused at Michigan.  We won’t know who’s right for a while, but we do know that incredible athletes at big-dollar positions get picked early, which is why Gary doesn’t last past this pick.

 

14. Atlanta Falcons: Christian Wilkins-DT/Clemson

 

While not quite as explosive as his fellow Clemson alumnus, current Atlanta DT Grady Jarrett, Wilkins’ size and violent hand usage portends similar potential to the Falcons’ franchise player. As a 4-year starter, Wilkins’ sack numbers have increased every season, and he’s been a consistent force as a penetrator along a star-studded defensive line.  NFL talent evaluators will need to feel good about how much of his production is a result of his own ability versus the benefit of playing with 3 other NFL-caliber players, but what likely tips the scales in his favor is his extremely high football character. Adding Wilkins to a DL that may lose Jarrett next offseason, and doesn’t have much behind him in terms interior pass rush, would make head coach Dan Quinn very happy.

 

15. Washington Redskins: Dwayne Haskins-QB/Ohio State

 

Not exactly the pick that Daniel Snyder envisioned after paying Alex Smith $93M just over a year ago, but when you need a QB, you draft a QB.  Why Haskins? He’s a prototypical pocket passer that is limited on experience, and could definitely benefit from a year of clipboard-holding behind veterans like Case Keenum and Colt McCoy. He also played high school in Potomac, Maryland, so being a local kid will likely ingratiate him with the fan base and earn him a grace period as he develops.

 

16. Carolina Panthers: Andre Dillard-OT/Washington State

 

I thought long and hard about giving them Oklahoma tackle Cody Ford, but in the end, pass protection will usually win out in the minds of NFL personnel men, and Dillard is the best pure pass protector in the tackle class.  The Panthers currently have Taylor Moton slated to start at LT, but he’s more suited to either the RT or LG role. Drafting Dillard, who started 39 games at LT for Washington State, would not only provide competition at LT, but would protect the Panthers in the event that OT Daryl Williams doesn’t return to form from injury or gets his big-money deal in free agency next offseason.

 

17. New York Giants (f/ Cle): Daniel Jones-QB/Duke

 

At some point, Dave Gettlemen is going to have to address the future of the QB position, so I’m giving them Jones.  Familiarity with QB coach David Cutcliffe wins out for the Giants, and while Jones may be considered a bit of a reach, guys like Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott have proven that there’s no such thing as a reach when it comes to hitting on a franchise QB. The biggest question facing Jones will be whether or not his arm can handle the boundary throws he’ll need to make on Sundays, but Pat Shurmur will have done a good job of surrounding him with speedy, shifty wideouts like Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate that make life easier for a QB that specializes in fast reads and ball-placement.

 

18. Minnesota Vikings: Cody Ford-OT/Oklahoma

 

What is it about Rick Spielman’s Vikings that they always seem to struggle to get the OL right? They’ve spent free agent money on Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers, they’ve spent draft picks on Pat Elflein and Brian O’Neill, and yet the 2018 offense still gave up 95 QB hits and averaged 4.2 yards per carry for the season.  Cody Ford can help in both departments.  He’s an earth-mover as a run-blocker, and is a surprisingly smooth mover in pass protection.  He’s played on both sides of the line, and at every position except center.  Ford is the kind of player you draft hoping that he can play tackle, but knowing that he can play guard.  And if you’re desperate to protect a QB to whom you gave a $91M, fully-guaranteed deal, he’s the kind of pick you just might make in the middle of round 1.

 

19. Tennessee Titans: Garrett Bradbury-C/North Carolina State

 

The Titans’ OL underachieved in Mike Vrabel’s first season as a head coach, allowing 47 sacks and being generally pedestrian in terms of power success.  Coming from a system in New England that places a premium on controlling the line of scrimmage, I could easily see Vrabel tabbing Bradbury as an immediate starter that would improve the entire unit. His combination of athleticism and play-recognition are rare for a college center, which means that Bradbury would combine with big-money free agent addition Rodger Saffold to once again make the Titan OL a force to be reckoned with.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Bush-LB/Michigan

 

Still looking to fill the gap created by Ryan Shazier’s unfortunate neck injury, the Steelers would jump at a chance to add an athletic LB like Bush, who fits a similar mold.  Despite being a bit undersized, Bush can cover (4 passes defensed as a Junior), tackle (41 solo tackles), and rush the passer (4.5 sacks).  Furthermore, he can learn from another very similar player in Mark Barron, who the Steelers brought in after his release from the Rams.

 

21. Seattle Seahawks: Greedy Williams-CB/LSU

 

The once proud Legion of Boom is a distant memory, as evidenced by the fact that the Seahawks recorded only 12 interceptions in 2018; a stark contrast to the 28 they had back in their heyday of 2013.  The Seattle secondary has tried to rebuild on the fly, but could really use some dedicated resources in the form of draft picks.  Enter Williams, the draft’s top corner, who is somehow still on the board.  He’s got the prototype Seahawk CB size at 6’2”, 185 lbs, and is versatile enough to play both press and off-style coverages. He’s not only an ideal fit for the team, he’s a great value at this point in the first round.

 

22. Buffalo Bills (f/ Hou): D.K. Metcalf-WR/Ole Miss

 

The Metcalf slide stops here.  Maybe Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott would’ve liked Metcalf enough to take him at 9 sans a trade suitor, but I’ll bet my last dollar that they like him enough at 22.  The Bills had a bit of luck with raw, hugely athletic first-rounders last year, and that description fits D.K. to a tee. If he can take advantage of his size, speed, and catch radius, Metcalf will give Josh Allen the WR1 that he needs to grow into a potential franchise QB.

 

**TRADE**

Buffalo trades picks 40 and 54 to Baltimore for pick 23

 

23. Buffalo Bills (f/ Bal): Dexter Lawrence-DT/Clemson

 

Even more dealing from Brandon Beane?  Sure, why not? When you’ve got 10 picks, and you accumulate more by moving down, it makes sense to use all of that ammunition to jump back up when you see a potentially elite talent still on the board.  It’s been widely speculated that Ravens’ GM Eric DeCosta wants to move down for more picks, and he’s got a trade history with Beane (look no further than last year’s move-down that landed Buffalo Tremaine Edmunds). So why Lawrence? Because he’s huge, athletic, and he fits the “if talent wins out” mentality to Beane’s first round picks.  If this kid maximizes his ability in the pros, he’ll be a pro bowl level interior defender for a long time.

 

24. Oakland Raiders (f/ Chi): Montez Sweat-EDGE/Mississippi State

 

The Raiders pass rush was absolutely putrid in 2018. How putrid? 13 sacks. In 16 games. Putrid might not even cover it.  So they take one of the picks they acquired in the Khalil Mack trade and add an EDGE defender with enormous upside in Montez Sweat, who is still on the board due to both health-related and character concerns.  Guys his build don’t come around often: 6’6”, 260 lbs, nearly 36” arms, 10.5” hands, 4.4 speed, and very productive as a Senior (14.5 TFLs and 11.5 sacks). He’s the kind of player that, if he stays healthy and keeps himself clean, people will look back and call the steal of the draft.

 

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Marquise Brown-WR/Oklahoma

 

GM Howie Roseman brought Desean Jackson back to Philly in an effort to inject some speed into Doug Pederson’s passing game. With Jackson in the twilight of his career, Roseman would likely pull a hamstring sprinting to the podium for Hollywood Brown, who is a very similar player to Jackson. Slight of build at 5’9”, 166 lbs, Brown has been electric catching passes from Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, totaling 135 receptions, 2,413 yards, and 17 TDs in the last 2 seasons. He’d immediately give Carson Wentz a true deep threat, which would open up the short and intermediate passing game for Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery.

 

26. Indianapolis Colts: Rock Ya-Sin-CB/Temple

 

Indianapolis chose to re-sign over-achieving corner Pierre Desir in free agency, but the depth of their secondary beyond him is a bit scary. Nate Hairston and Quincy Wilson haven’t lived up to their draft statuses, and Kenny Moore is a waiver-wire pickup that hasn’t been anything special.  Ya-Sin is raw, but he’s got size, speed, length, and tenacity.  He challenges WRs and takes extremely well to coaching.  He’s a Frank Reich kind of player if ever there was such a guy, and while there are CBs that are more NFL-ready, he’s got the potential to be a true CB1 in a year or two.

 

27. Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs-RB/Alabama

 

Jacobs is probably too good a player to fall this far, but in this speed-rules-all age, running backs that don’t crack 4.6 in the 40 tend to fall on draft day.  We know how much Jon Gruden loves to pound the rock, so it makes sense for him to take a bell-cow back when he falls to them.  Jacobs can run between the tackles, but also possesses solidly above-average receiving skills.  He’s a 3-down back that can add another dimension to an offense that is taking on a whole new identity, and breathe life into a running game that finished 25th in yards per game and 27th in rushes of 20+ yards in 2018.

 

**TRADE**

New England trades pick 32 and pick 101 to Los Angeles Chargers for pick 28

 

28. New England Patriots (f/ LAC): Parris Campbell-WR/Ohio State

 

There are question marks all over the Patriots’ group of pass-catchers, so a team that’s in win-more-championships-now mode makes a move up the board.  Campbell is the exact type of WR that Belichick and Brady love: fast, versatile, high football character, and played at a big-time program. He can run the option routes that Josh McDaniels’ offense features, and can contribute as a return man as well.  More importantly, he injects some speed into a passing game that’s sorely lacking a consistent deep threat.

 

29. Seattle Seahawks (f/ KC): Jerry Tillery-DL/Notre Dame

 

GM John Schneider uses the pick acquired from the Frank Clark trade to add some pop to his front-7.  Tillery is a great match for what the Seahawks like in their DLmen: size, length, nasty demeanor, versatile, and productive.  He showed his potential as a Senior, amassing 10.5 TFLs and 8.0 sacks in 13 games, and would pair with Jarran Reed to make a formidable tandem in Pete Carroll’s defensive front.

 

30. Green Bay Packers (f/ NO): Noah Fant-TE/Iowa

 

The Jimmy Graham acquisition didn’t go as planned for Mike McCarthy’s Packers in 2018, as he hauled in only 55 of 89 targets and scored only 2 TDs.  With Matt LaFleur now at the helm, we’re told we should expect some changes to the Green Bay offense.  They can start by adding a young playmaker at the tight end position to be the guy that Graham couldn’t.  Fant has the highly-coveted size/speed ratio that makes coaches drool, while also possessing the basketball traits that QBs often regard as essential in a red zone target.  If he can pick up the offense quickly, Fant should contribute early on in his NFL career.

 

**TRADE**

New York Giants trade pick 37 and pick 95 for pick 31 and pick 169

 

31. New York Giants (f/ LAR): Dalton Risner-OT/Kansas State

 

Dave Gettlemen typically isn’t a trader, but here lies a chance to grab a versatile, talented OLman that can fill a much-needed hole along the offensive line.  Risner has shown that he can play any position along the OL, and plugging him in at either center or right tackle would go a long way in completing an overhaul of the front 5, as neither John Halapio or Chad Wheeler are the kind of guys you want protecting your young QB or blocking for your stud RB.

 

32. Los Angeles Chargers (f/ NE): Deandre Baker-CB/Georgia

 

Gus Bradley’s defense has been great against the pass, but their CB depth is thin behind Casey Heyward and Desmond King.  Baker is a sticky coverage corner that has a nose for the football, and loves to compete. He’s also a very competent run defender, which is a trait that Bradley always seemed to covet in his corners in Seattle and Jacksonville. While he’s a bit small for a boundary corner, the Chargers have had success with smaller players like King and Jason Verrett in the past, so there’s no reason to think that Baker would be any different.

 

I don’t know if the Bills will trade all the way down to 23, but it could happen given the talent available in Round 2.

 

But if they do, I don’t see any way that they trade up for Dexter Lawrence 

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2 hours ago, TOboy said:

Not sure I love this for the Bills. Essentially we get DK and Lawrence in the 1st, and move back 15 spots in the second, oh and give up our 3rd? 

 

Nice effort, appreciate all the details. Just wouldn't be thrilled with this outcome from a Bills perspective. Could turn out great if DK is a star and Lawrence can be an effective 3 technique (definitely looks the part of a nose tackle). 

 

Uh, no.... I think in his scenario we would still have two 2nds... our own #40 and #55

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44 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'm assuming that you mean terrible value according to a draft trade chart?  I used Rich Hill's 1000-point base chart, and it's almost identical in terms of points.

No. I mean it's terrible value in terms of the drop off in standard of players 

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15 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

I don’t know if the Bills will trade all the way down to 23, but it could happen given the talent available in Round 2.

 

But if they do, I don’t see any way that they trade up for Dexter Lawrence 

Don't think White gets to nine. But if he does you grab him. Figure out a plan with Edmunds and him. But you just couldn't pass on White if he's there. NEVER

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Just now, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

Don't think White gets to nine. But if he does you grab him. Figure out a plan with Edmunds and him. But you just couldn't pass on White if he's there. NEVER

 

I don’t see this happening.  They traded up specifically to put Edmunds at MLB.  I can’t see that scenario play out.  I think White goes 4 to the Raiders anyway

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3 minutes ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

Don't think White gets to nine. But if he does you grab him. Figure out a plan with Edmunds and him. But you just couldn't pass on White if he's there. NEVER

Just watch...

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5 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Folks who quote the entire OP for a one sentence response should be tarred and feathered.

i rarely agree with you, however making subsequent members scroll through something they have already read once, to read a single sentence that essentially says thank you is just plain bad form.

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