Bills Draft Board...Fuzzy Math???

[LabattBlue]

There will be 250 or so players drafted in 2019.  This was in a BN article over the weekend.  So what do the Bills do for the later rounds when all the players on their “draft board” are gone?

 

 

By the time the first round rolls around, Beane said the Bills’ draft board will contain between 115 and 140 players.

 

 

 

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/04/19/buffalo-bills-2019-nfl-draft-needs-defensive-tackle-wide-receiver/

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by LabattBlue

[MAJBobby]

Do you think that teams rack and stack all 5,000 players in the draft.

 

They rack and stack top players also based on Rounds.  So yea 140 players might be someone that is ranked 230.  But that 140th player is racked in the 7th round.

 

That is called building and refining the board

Edited April 22, 2019 by MAJBobby

[LabattBlue]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

Do you think that teams rack and stack all 5,000 players in the draft.

Thanks smart guy.  I wouldn’t expect them to have 5000 players on their board, but I would expect them to have ~300.  

 

Unless the quote is misleading.  

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, LabattBlue said:

Thanks smart guy.  I wouldn’t expect them to have 5000 players on their board, but I would expect them to have ~300.  

 

Unless the quote is misleading.  

It’s similar to what Gunner was saying regarding grades. He may have 15 guys with a round 1 grade. Obviously, 32 guys are going to be taken there.  This is similar. The Bills will have it all laid out and have eliminated the guys that have injury or off the field concerns that they deem too big of a risk. Some teams have Sweat off their board for example. He’s probably a top 10 pick. 

[CuddyDark]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Do you think that teams rack and stack all 5,000 players in the draft.

 

They rack and stack top players also based on Rounds.  So yea 140 players might be someone that is ranked 230.  But that 140th player is racked in the 7th round.

 

That is called building and refining the board

Yeah they probably have 20 or 30 players in each round they'd draft. They probably seen all players but don't have them on their board because they won't draft them even if they're available.

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Thanks smart guy.  I wouldn’t expect them to have 5000 players on their board, but I would expect them to have ~300.  

 

Unless the quote is misleading.  

Again, why would a board be 300?  They are building their board on what might be available specially in the late rounds.  The reality is who cares what the board looks like, they did the work on more than 300 players and come to the conclusion that there are 140 players that are draftable for what they are building (play, medical, off-field).  All teams do that.

1 minute ago, CuddyDark said:

Yeah they probably have 20 or 30 players in each round they'd draft. They probably seen all players but don't have them on their board because they won't draft them even if they're available.

Exactly.

 

Like I have 16 players on my "board" that are carrying 1st round grades.  So if I am running a draft room why would I put 32 players on my board?

Edited April 22, 2019 by MAJBobby

[LabattBlue]

If the above speculation is true, than i stand corrected. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

These are not the top 140 players in their mind. These are layered into different rounds.

 

That said 140 is still somewhat less than I anticipated. These days, with info on anybody available at their finger tips, I expected a bigger pool of player dossiers for each team.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

If the above speculation is true, than i stand corrected. 

 

So an example is the Bills probably don't have undersized tweener type pass rushers on their board. Badol and BillfromNYC talked about Christian Miller of Alabama the other day. I have him as a 3rd round pick. But I doubt the Bills have him on the board because he doesn't fit what they look for in a linebacker and he is too small to be a defensive end in McDermott's scheme. Doesn't mean they don't think he is a good player. It means they don't think he fits for them.

5 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

These are not the top 140 players in their mind. These are layered into different rounds.

 

That said 140 is still somewhat less than I anticipated. These days, with info on anybody available at their finger tips, I expected a bigger pool of player dossiers for each team.

 

Boards are typically in that 140-150 range. The Patriots are famous for having very small boards. Often as few as 80-85 players who they think are draftable fits for them. At 115 (bottom end of Beane's estimate) that would put the Bills towards the smaller end. 140 is probably around about the average. 

[MAJBobby]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So an example is the Bills probably don't have undersized tweener type pass rushers on their board. Badol and BillfromNYC talked about Christian Miller of Alabama the other day. I have him as a 3rd round pick. But I doubt the Bills have him on the board because he doesn't fit what they look for in a linebacker and he is too small to be a defensive end in McDermott's scheme. Doesn't mean they don't think he is a good player. It means they don't think he fits for them.

 

Boards are typically in that 140-150 range. The Patriots are famous for having very small boards. Often as few as 80-85 players who they think are draftable fits for them. At 115 (bottom end of Beane's estimate) that would put the Bills towards the smaller end. 140 is probably around about the average. 

Much better explanation of what I was trying to say.

[IgotBILLStopay]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Boards are typically in that 140-150 range. The Patriots are famous for having very small boards. Often as few as 80-85 players who they think are draftable fits for them. At 115 (bottom end of Beane's estimate) that would put the Bills towards the smaller end. 140 is probably around about the average. 

 

There are two drafting philosophies depending on whether it is the coach or the GM running the draft. A GM controlled system will have more prospects on the Draft Board since the GMs are not wedded to a particular scheme. The old Dick Steinberg system would rarely have less than 250 players on a team's draft board. However a coach controlled system will not waste time on misfits for the coach's scheme. That would typically be smaller. I am guessing since McD is not going anywhere, Beane  has the luxury of going with a smaller draft board.

 

You are right about the Pats historically having small Draft Boards. This is because Belichik did everything and did not have time to waste on scheme misfits. But success is a B*tch. Even they have changed now and have a much bigger board. Part of the problem was that, in this copy cat league, all the guys who had worked with Belichik started looking for the same traits. I remember reading a few years ago that the Pats board with about 100 names was down to 4 guys left before the 5th round started. That is the risk you run with smaller draft boards.

 

With the Pegulas not really being tight-fisted, I would have expected Beane to cast a wider net. That said, he does have a good track record of unearthing nuggets (that others dont see) even with his smaller board - Wallace / Foster / Teller. So maybe it works for him. Additionally, we are in the third year with the defensive scheme and 2nd year with the offensive scheme. So there is coaching stability. Bottomline, I can rationalize why Beane would be comfortable with a smaller draft board.