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billsredneck1

Drafting for need? BPA? or B.S? I think it's the latter...

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Posted (edited)

Probably don't need a new thread here now, but it does deserve to be brought into the light. So it usually goes...

 

GM:  "Never draft for need because you will overdraft a player at that spot."

 

GM:  "Stick to the board and go BPA.  If the player happens to be a player of need..cool".

 

GM:  Then  moves up and down in the draft to where the player(s) of need are BPA....or visa versa...

 

Now I may not have a college degree, but by process of elimination, it seems rather easy to identify the true method of drafting the best players for your team. The whole discussion of need vs. BPA seems to be a bit of a waste of time.  JMO

 

Mods feel free to put the fire out when you see fit.

Edited by billsredneck1

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Best player available of need. If the player you want is a reach where you're picking, you try to trade out of that spot or move up to a spot where another BPAoN is available and fits your need according to your draft board. 

 

Picking for need will consistently make you reach and picking the BPA could land you 7 offensive linemen if they were actually going by "BPA" . 

 

Neither makes sense. It's a hybrid of the two and using option 3 to make the system work. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

 Probably don't need a new thread here now, but it does deserve to be brought into the light. So it usually goes...

 

GM:  "Never draft for need because you will overdraft a player at that spot."

 

GM:  "Stick to the board and go BPA.  If the player happens to be a player of need..cool".

 

GM:  Then  moves up and down in the draft to where the player(s) of need are BPA....or visa versa...

 

Now I may not have a college degree, but by process of elimination, it seems rather easy to identify the true method of drafting the best players for your team. The whole discussion of need vs. BPA seems to be a bit of a waste of time.  JMO

 

Mods feel free to put the fire out when you see fit.

 

This is an interesting way to start a thread. Bold. Like Beane. Bold can be good. 

 

The draft will start soon (but not soon enough), then we will all move on to the next thing. Offseasons are rough, I know. We are all starving Bills fans. But this feels like making busy work before elementary school. 

 

 

.

Edited by Augie

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This really needed its own thread 👎🏻 LAMP

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8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

This really needed its own thread 👎🏻 LAMP

sorry, i'm sure this short contemplation should have been inserted into the appropriate (one of a thousand mock drafts). i didn't do my research.

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We now have a trifecta:

 

Teller to DL 

Peterman thread yesterday

This thread

 

We are officially in the long dry and pointless time of the offseason.  

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Have you ever heard a GM come out and state: "He wasn't the BPA, but he filled a need"  I wouldn't be surprised to learn that most teams have players grouped, any of these 5 will fill title of BPA as their grades are so close anyway, it does become somewhat subjective.  So they pick the one they want and tell everyone he was the BPA on their board and no one will ever be the wiser either way.

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20 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

Probably don't need a new thread here now, but it does deserve to be brought into the light. So it usually goes...

 

GM:  "Never draft for need because you will overdraft a player at that spot."

 

GM:  "Stick to the board and go BPA.  If the player happens to be a player of need..cool".

 

GM:  Then  moves up and down in the draft to where the player(s) of need are BPA....or visa versa...

 

Now I may not have a college degree, but by process of elimination, it seems rather easy to identify the true method of drafting the best players for your team. The whole discussion of need vs. BPA seems to be a bit of a waste of time.  JMO

 

Mods feel free to put the fire out when you see fit.

How about drafting Jonah Williams and trying him at DT😎

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14 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

How about drafting Jonah Williams and trying him at DT😎

But he turns his hips well  - why not CB?

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20 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

Probably don't need a new thread here now, but it does deserve to be brought into the light. So it usually goes...

 

GM:  "Never draft for need because you will overdraft a player at that spot."

 

GM:  "Stick to the board and go BPA.  If the player happens to be a player of need..cool".

 

GM:  Then  moves up and down in the draft to where the player(s) of need are BPA....or visa versa...

 

Now I may not have a college degree, but by process of elimination, it seems rather easy to identify the true method of drafting the best players for your team. The whole discussion of need vs. BPA seems to be a bit of a waste of time.  JMO

 

Mods feel free to put the fire out when you see fit.

 

 

That isn't "how it usually goes."

 

It usually has a million variations as to what the GMs actually do. Relatively few actually trade, obviously, far less than a third.

 

The true method is ... (drum roll) ... different for every team.

 

And no, nobody does absolute BPA, picking a guard for his high first round pick if a potential franchise QB who's second-best player, not the best. Or picking the BPA if he's a 3-4 NT or DE when they run a 4-3. Or picking the greatest punter in the history of the league rather than a pretty good EDGE. Yeah, teams eliminate positions. But generally not many, not the teams that are heavier into the BPA method.

 

But do some teams make BPA a guiding but non-absolute principle. Yeah, and the Bills are one.

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Not directing this comment to the OP or anyone specific...general comments on the false existence of BPA.

 

BPA is a myth, it does not exist the way fans think it does.

 

BPA is according to that GMs board where they have already weighed needs, wants, fit, evaluations, etc into their tailored rankings.

 

It’s never ever been according to any mock draft, Kiper big board, fan rankings, media rankings, etc.

 

There is no such thing as BPA.  Can we please let this concept die already.  A GM means and ONLY means the best player on THEIR board, not in the draft.  Jacobs may be the consensus BPA on board and Giants 100% will not draft him.  Just like a QB or a Center could be BPA on board when Bills are on the clock early...we won’t be drafting one.  

 

I just cant fathom how this just isn’t more widely understood.  BPA on this board is talked about inccrectly here on almost a daily basis.

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35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Not directing this comment to the OP or anyone specific...general comments on the false existence of BPA.

 

BPA is a myth, it does not exist the way fans think it does.

 

BPA is according to that GMs board where they have already weighed needs, wants, fit, evaluations, etc into their tailored rankings.

 

It’s never ever been according to any mock draft, Kiper big board, fan rankings, media rankings, etc.

 

There is no such thing as BPA.  Can we please let this concept die already.  A GM means and ONLY means the best player on THEIR board, not in the draft.  Jacobs may be the consensus BPA on board and Giants 100% will not draft him.  Just like a QB or a Center could be BPA on board when Bills are on the clock early...we won’t be drafting one.  

 

I just cant fathom how this just isn’t more widely understood.  BPA on this board is talked about inccrectly here on almost a daily basis.

 

 

 

While I agree that perfect BPA is a myth, I think the people who are using the phrase are well aware that BPA is for the best player on each individual GM's board. There is no one board to rule them all, one board to find them, one board to bring them all and in the darkness bind them. I think we all get that.

 

But you're right that each GM's boards have included schemes, fits, and so on. I think some people still want to believe of all those words you used there, that for BPA GMs there is no "need" included when putting those boards together. Which is more of an "in an ideal world" kind of situation.

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Every GM has his own list for BPA and you will never see it, so its hard to be wrong

 

Its a rigged system

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Posted (edited)

If you grade all the draftees and the rest of the guys finishing their college football careers, those grades will more or less be normally distributed about an average. Think bell shaped curve. You only draft the top end, so the guys at the top will usually be spread out a bit more in terms of grade. As you get into lower rounds, you find the grades from one player to the next not changing much at all. Therefore, you take the best player in round 1 when it's your turn unless you have 2 or 3 guys with very similar grades. Then you take the one that matches your greatest need of the 2 or 3. In the middle or late rounds, the grades will all be clustered together, so you just take the guy at the position of greatest need since his grade will be as good as the best guys left on your board. Of course, specific numbers and patterns can differ a little from year to year, but this is the general approach. Call it drafting for need of BPA. Whatever you want, but teams always do it and somehow many GM's don't seem to grasp simple math that explains it.

Edited by GreggTX

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

While I agree that perfect BPA is a myth, I think the people who are using the phrase are well aware that BPA is for the best player on each individual GM's board. There is no one board to rule them all, one board to find them, one board to bring them all and in the darkness bind them. I think we all get that.

 

But you're right that each GM's boards have included schemes, fits, and so on. I think some people still want to believe of all those words you used there, that for BPA GMs there is no "need" included when putting those boards together. Which is more of an "in an ideal world" kind of situation.

 

Although when a GM builds his final board the needs of the team will more than likely have many players that the scouts/GM/HC/Coordinators have

scouted deeply because of that need.  It's been proven in many other threads that most teams put about 120 players on their board.

If that team has 3 proven RBs that are all under reasonable contracts and are likely to make the team, that team will not have a large number

of RBs on their board.  If that team "needed" a TE then one would expect more TEs were scouted and a large amount of them end up on the

final board.

 

It becomes a number game that a TE will be the "BPA" over a RB in any given early to mid rounds.

But that being said NO team will draft a TE in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round because they are BPA.

 

It seems to me that the better GMs know how to build their board to balance the 2 extremes.

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You need to draft the best player available at your positions of needs unless the best player available is so good that they outweight your needs in which case you take the best player available despite having more pressing needs.

 

Can we get a defense wins championships thread going?

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