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Allen Sophomore Slump?


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I don't think he will slump this year.  I think many of the slumps happen with a rookie QB playing for an established team. The defenses have all year to figure out what he did good in the 2nd half of the rookie season and then they counter that  and scheme against his tendencies.  The Bills offense will look different this year because of the turn-over in the offensive line.

 

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5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

He will be a breakout player in 2019...book it.  

 

5 hours ago, the skycap said:

Especially with the players Beane/McDermott will acquire/acquired to put around him. 

 

@Inigo Montoya

 

Great OT, Inigo.

 

7 out of 10, as you say, which I believe is 4 linemen, 2 WR and a tight end.  However, I’d like to throw in the 5th olinemen, Dawkins and his renewed commitment to being a better player instead of just succumbing to the inertia of being a pro.  As well I am going to mentione Zay/Foster as the situational third receiver and their expected growth, and finally Shady, a man who is making a push for the hall of fame and still has juice left in the tank.

 

I just think there are way to many positives, as opposed to last year, that are beneficial to Allen to think that he would have a sophomore slump...actually, I think they may be better at every position this year on O...crazy.

 

 

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
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4 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I think expectations may be set a little high for josh.. This is a run first team, McD is gonna pound that rock this year which may not give Allen a ton of room to grow. If it works, and this line gels really good expect a lot of first down run, second down run non stop. All I want to see if dominant winning football, and Allen showing the ability to make the easy plays. We know he can make some hard ones but those easy gimmes are just killer. 

Unless we’re behind a bunch of games I would expect him to float around top 20ish in stats. Which is just fine by me if the ball control run game works for McDermott. Control the clock, wear down opposing defenses and keep your defense fresh, fast and hungry 

Yeah, I don’t think so. None of the FA OL excel in run blocking and our 2 best RBs are a combined 67 years old. Is a 4th rounder going to unseat them? Zey, John, Tyler & Beazer are anything But road grading WRs. We shocked the world introducing the K-Gun in ‘90. This year we introduce Col. Josh’s Air Raid Squadron.

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7 hours ago, Augie said:

Will he see less man coverage, due to fear of DB’s turning their heads away from him and giving up the 20 yards run? Find guys who know where the soft spot in the zone is, and PLEASE be able to hit them. Then, every once in a while, let the cannon fire one long! We have speed to burn. 

 

 

.

 

Cole B has done it his whole career 

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If he slumps as a passer we are in big trouble. His passing stats have to get better this year or else it begins to look very much like he is not the guy. I think they will, but the idea of a slump.... I just don't think he was good enough as a rookie (taking away the running) to say there would be any excuse whatsoever for a slump. 

 

This.  Rookie QBs who are mediocre, even less than mediocre, are one thing.  Many of these guys come back to shine like Goff or Mahomes.  Sophomore QBs who don't get demonstratively better almost always fail.  IIRC Drew Brees is the only great QB in the last 20 years who didn't play as well as a second year starter as he did as a rookie, but he had a pretty good rookie season. 

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2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Uh, not really.

 

How many dropped passes do you think there were last season?

 

They weren't statistically significant.

 

 

 

NFL stats say the Bills had 20 dropped passes in 2018. Based on averages, 10 more completions equal 120 additional yards, a 4% increase in completions, one more touchdown and one more interception. So I overstated the difference a bit but it's not insignificant.

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23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, if by sophomore slump you mean a dramatic decline, those aren't all that common, and I wouldn't expect one.

 

Plenty of guys don't improve very much, though. You want to see a lot of improvement from a soph. I'm hopeful.

 

^^^

 

7 minutes ago, teef said:

I think the sophomore slump would just be if we didn’t see any improvement. 

 

This is probably the most common type of "sophomore slump" for QBs -- and it's not a good sign, especially if the QB, like Allen, didn't have a particularly good rookie season.   The more a sophomore QB improves over his rookie season, the more likely he is to have long-term success.  Off hand, the only recent first round QB I can think of who improved significantly in his second over his first and then crashed and burned was Josh Freeman whose failure, according to rumor, was due to drug use.

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5 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

.....a sophomore slump like Mahome's 2nd year would be ok......I guess.............

 

You took the words right out of my mouth!

 

(Brady had a pretty good sophomore season too, if you consider winning the Superbowl a good year.)

.

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2nd year QB most likely to suffer a sophomore slump (by a WIDE margin) -- Lamar Jackson

 

I think Allen and Darnold should take big steps forward, Mayfield should continue to be solid, and who knows where Rosen ends up so that's a crap shoot.

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33 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

NFL stats say the Bills had 20 dropped passes in 2018. Based on averages, 10 more completions equal 120 additional yards, a 4% increase in completions, one more touchdown and one more interception. So I overstated the difference a bit but it's not insignificant.

 

There was a video posted a few months ago that showed far more than just 20 dropped passes.  Like almost double that.  And that didn't even take into account things like Clay's Bill Buckner impression at the end of the Miami game. 

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11 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I was wondering what the odds are of a second year QB continuing to develop versus experiencing the dreaded "sophomore slump".  There are a few good articles about it that point to the fact that the Sophomore Slump is more fiction than fact since the mid 1980's.

 

Here's a Bleacher Report story published in 2013.  It takes a look at 2nd year quarterbacks.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699076-ranking-the-best-sophomore-qb-seasons-in-nfl-history#slide0

"So much of the discussion about a second-year quarterback revolves around the mythical sophomore slump. Rather than talk about that player taking a step forward in the NFL, we expect them to decline after experiencing rookie success.  Including Cam Newton and Andy Dalton last year, 17 of the last 22 quarterbacks in position to have a sophomore slump did not have one. That means 77.3 percent either stayed at the same level or improved."

 

In 2016 Rolling Stone took a look at this and came to the same conclusion;

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-sports/why-the-quarterback-sophomore-slump-is-football-myth-109876/

“That is the NFL today. Rookies now have expectations, because they can meet them. There is no sophomore slump. This is the year you take it to the next level, because that is what you are supposed to do.”

 

This article from NFLMocks in 2017 also debunks the myth of the sophomore slump

https://nflmocks.com/2017/07/21/nfl-quarterback-sophomore-slump-fact-fiction/

"Unless there’s a change in physical health or the team around a player, there’s little chance a dramatic decline will occur between years one and two."

 

I think there are several solid reasons to believe that Allen avoids the "Sophomore Slump" this year.  Consider the fact that at least seven of the ten players stepping onto the field with Allen this year should be a clear upgrade over last year's supporting cast.  I don't think you can point to another team that has upgraded the overall offense between years one and two for a QB as much as the Bills have for Allen this off season.  

 

We all saw how much that six week break midseason helped Allen improve his game.  I think Allen will continue to improve with an entire off season of study and a full training camp as the starting QB playing with the first team offense.  He will know the offense inside out and feel more comfortable under center.  Couple all that with our team friendly schedule this season and I think Allen has a great shot at a break out season.

 

 

 You worry too much. 

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The sophomore slump for QBs, if it happens, is mostly due to the attention defensive coordinators pay to them.  The tendencies of the QB become better understood and there is more film available.  Thus, coordinators may be able to game plan a little more effectively.  As for the QBs themselves, rarely would they actually become worse.  Trent Edwards was an exception for the Bills (I don't know if it was his sophomore season).  I think he had a bit of PTSD after getting shell shocked by an opponent's pass rush.  Most QBs get better in the sophomore season, though it may not always show.  I don't have any worries about Josh Allen in that regard.  He seems to have plenty of mental toughness to go along with his athleticism and skill set.  The Bills have taken steps to upgrade the offensive line and receiving weapons.  Brian Daboll and Sean McDermott seem to have a good handle on how to handle a young QB, so I expect him to improve quite a bit.

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3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Uh, not really.

 

How many dropped passes do you think there were last season?

 

They weren't statistically significant.

 

 

 

As one of the comments pointed out in the youtube comments.  34 passes in this video that were "dropped".  I'd probably say 28 if you put blame 50/50 on Allen and the receiver.

 

Even still, 169/320 is 52.8% completion.  Add those 28 completions and he is at 61.5% completion including throw aways and spikes.  Also you could add another win on the season if Clay makes the EZ catch against Miami.

 

Does that get them in the playoffs, no.  But statistically they are very significant especially when people point out his "accuracy" issues.

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11 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I was wondering what the odds are of a second year QB continuing to develop versus experiencing the dreaded "sophomore slump".  There are a few good articles about it that point to the fact that the Sophomore Slump is more fiction than fact since the mid 1980's.

 

Here's a Bleacher Report story published in 2013.  It takes a look at 2nd year quarterbacks.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699076-ranking-the-best-sophomore-qb-seasons-in-nfl-history#slide0

"So much of the discussion about a second-year quarterback revolves around the mythical sophomore slump. Rather than talk about that player taking a step forward in the NFL, we expect them to decline after experiencing rookie success.  Including Cam Newton and Andy Dalton last year, 17 of the last 22 quarterbacks in position to have a sophomore slump did not have one. That means 77.3 percent either stayed at the same level or improved."

 

In 2016 Rolling Stone took a look at this and came to the same conclusion;

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-sports/why-the-quarterback-sophomore-slump-is-football-myth-109876/

“That is the NFL today. Rookies now have expectations, because they can meet them. There is no sophomore slump. This is the year you take it to the next level, because that is what you are supposed to do.”

 

This article from NFLMocks in 2017 also debunks the myth of the sophomore slump

https://nflmocks.com/2017/07/21/nfl-quarterback-sophomore-slump-fact-fiction/

"Unless there’s a change in physical health or the team around a player, there’s little chance a dramatic decline will occur between years one and two."

 

I think there are several solid reasons to believe that Allen avoids the "Sophomore Slump" this year.  Consider the fact that at least seven of the ten players stepping onto the field with Allen this year should be a clear upgrade over last year's supporting cast.  I don't think you can point to another team that has upgraded the overall offense between years one and two for a QB as much as the Bills have for Allen this off season.  

 

We all saw how much that six week break midseason helped Allen improve his game.  I think Allen will continue to improve with an entire off season of study and a full training camp as the starting QB playing with the first team offense.  He will know the offense inside out and feel more comfortable under center.  Couple all that with our team friendly schedule this season and I think Allen has a great shot at a break out season.

 

 


Thanks for another great post, Montoya. You consistently post thought-provoking and interesting content, and you're one of the best posters around. Kudos.

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2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

NFL stats say the Bills had 20 dropped passes in 2018. Based on averages, 10 more completions equal 120 additional yards, a 4% increase in completions, one more touchdown and one more interception. So I overstated the difference a bit but it's not insignificant.

This is lazy work. Check your records, then rewatch the games. If you come back here and tell me Allen didn’t lose more than a thousand yards passing through penalties and drops, then I’ll make you prove it play for play. When you have 2 consecutive 20+ yard completions wiped out by penalties, it forces 3rd & 30. Only here does your slant have credence. He didn’t complete most of those..

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11 hours ago, Warcodered said:

The only real logic I can think of with a sophomore slump is if with more game film other teams are able to game plan for him more. As long as he continues to improve as a passer he should be fine I think I'd be more worried about Lamar Jackson.

i agree here. some qbs have all their talent cards on the table early on and do have the slump. qbs like allen on a crappy team who could only scratch the surface i expect to improve tremendously.

darnold may have a slump due to coaching and scheme changes with new faces....

 

lamar will probably slump because his game will be the same with nowhere to go unless the talent around him elevates.

 

mayfield may hit a slump, because how much better than last year can he be with the tape out on him?

 

rosen, i honestly hope gets a do over because i think he does have starter talent. hopefully he gets a fresh start somewhere.  washington... would be a good investment for that team.  if they can get him for a 3rd and put him behind keenum for a bit, i think it would be a good move for them.

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