Daniel Jeremiah: "Bills more than open to trading back"

[JESSEFEFFER]

35 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

KC is not in the Bills division and he was not that highly regarded coming out of college.  He landed on a great offensive roster and has flourished with all of that support.  I doubt that he would have been the league MVP playing with the 2018 Bills.  During the 2017 draft, the Bills had a terrible roster with too many holes.  They were headed to cap hell. The smart play was to trade down, get extra picks, fill some holes, and not draft a QB at that time.  They would have just squandered two years of the QB's rookie contract on a terrible team. 

 

I agree with this.  It should be stickied somewhere everytime Mahomes does something great and the hindsight viewers kick in.  I'd also add that there is no way that Doug Whaley and his lameduck staff would be entrusted to make that pick.  It was clearly better to leave that decision to the next GM.  I really, really hope that Josh Allen makes this story fade away into irrelevance.

Edited April 20, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Boatdrinks]

11 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

KC is not in the Bills division and he was not that highly regarded coming out of college.  He landed on a great offensive roster and has flourished with all of that support.  I doubt that he would have been the league MVP playing with the 2018 Bills.  During the 2017 draft, the Bills had a terrible roster with too many holes.  They were headed to cap hell. The smart play was to trade down, get extra picks, fill some holes, and not draft a QB at that time.  They would have just squandered two years of the QB's rookie contract on a terrible team. 

This topic is well worn on this forum, but Mahomes most certainly was a top QB prospect that year. While it’s true that he wouldn’t likely have been the MVP if on the Bills , he’s still a great player. Mahomes is probably better than the player the Bills ended up with at QB. Trying to paint the trade down as a smart play is an overly rosy scenario clouded by Bills-colored lenses. The move was made because the Bills had a lame duck GM in place for that draft who should have already been fired. The Pegulas waited, and hired a HC before they had a new GM. McD thought it best to skip taking a QB ,so the new GM would have a say in the pick. While that makes sense, the whole scenario was created by Pegulas unwillingness to make a move in a timely fashion. It may work out, but Mahomes would still be an excellent player if he was in Buffalo. 

Edited April 21, 2019 by Boatdrinks

[Victory Formation]

12 hours ago, purple haze said:

If they trade back they're grabbing Metcalf.

No problem with that. Nor would i be upset with Marquise Brown or Greg Little or Jonah Williams. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

22 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

This topic is well worn on this forum, but Mahomes most certainly was a top QB prospect that year. While it’s true that he wouldn’t likely have been the MVP if on the Bills , he’s still a great player. Mahomes is probably better than the player the Bills ended up with at QB. Trying to paint the trade down as a smart play is an overly rosy scenario clouded by Bills-colored lenses. The move was made because the Bills had a lame duck GM in place for that draft who should have already been fired. The Pegulas waited, and hired a HC before they had a new GM. McD thought it best to skip taking a QB ,so the new GM would have a say in the pick. While that makes sense, the whole scenario was created by Pegulas unwillingness to make a move in a timely fashion. It may work out, but Mahomes would still be an excellent player if he was in Buffalo. 

Close but no cigar!  Mahomes was not considered a sure thing in a draft that was not considered to have strong QB prospects, thus his drop to pick #10.  He was considered to be one of the better QB's available in that draft. The knock on him was the system that he played in.  He sat for a year because KC felt that he wasn't ready to play and Alex Smith was still the better player.  To his credit, he learned quickly and is on his way to being a great player with great players around him.

 

The trade down isn't being looked at as an overly rosey scenario.  Your view of the GM at the time is spot on.  By the time of the draft, he wasn't involved in any of this decision making (he was a dead man walking).  I believe that McD was hired because he had experience in Carolina in their process of rebuilding their team to compete for the long term.  Picking a QB that wasn't viewed as a sure thing onto a bad roster with an imminent cap disaster, was not a good long term strategy.  In addition, the consensus was that the 2018 draft was going to be deep in high quality QB talent. That view won out and they made the trade down.  The trade down produced multiple starters and draft capital to move up to select a QB.  Time will tell whether that QB develops into a great player or not.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/20/2019 at 7:55 PM, Jigsaw2112 said:

The Bills need blue chip talent, not extra guys.  The Bills need D Line looking forward, the top of this draft has it. Stay at nine unless someone gets stupid and offers something amazing.

 

 

You're right that they don't need "extra guys."

 

What you get in the second and third round are not extra guys. Was Matt Milano an "extra guy" from the fifth round?

[mrags]

23 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Yes, he was very focused on that 3-cone drill.  He almost became McDoormat because he was so up close and personal.  That scene did look meaningful.

Just curious. Has anyone seen McDermott at anyone else’s pro day? Maybe he’s just as up close and personal with a guy projected in round 7 as he is with a guy in the top 10. Just saying. Just because he was right up there, doesn’t mean anything. 

[Boatdrinks]

37 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Close but no cigar!  Mahomes was not considered a sure thing in a draft that was not considered to have strong QB prospects, thus his drop to pick #10.  He was considered to be one of the better QB's available in that draft. The knock on him was the system that he played in.  He sat for a year because KC felt that he wasn't ready to play and Alex Smith was still the better player.  To his credit, he learned quickly and is on his way to being a great player with great players around him.

 

The trade down isn't being looked at as an overly rosey scenario.  Your view of the GM at the time is spot on.  By the time of the draft, he wasn't involved in any of this decision making (he was a dead man walking).  I believe that McD was hired because he had experience in Carolina in their process of rebuilding their team to compete for the long term.  Picking a QB that wasn't viewed as a sure thing onto a bad roster with an imminent cap disaster, was not a good long term strategy.  In addition, the consensus was that the 2018 draft was going to be deep in high quality QB talent. That view won out and they made the trade down.  The trade down produced multiple starters and draft capital to move up to select a QB.  Time will tell whether that QB develops into a great player or not.

While I stated that Mahomes was a top prospect that year, I did not say he was viewed as a sure thing. To be certain, neither was the player they ended up drafting in Josh Allen. He was probably held in a lower regard than Mahomes was in the 2017 draft, actually. Cap space / situation has nothing to do with drafting a QB, as that player will be cost controlled for up to five years. If you believe in a QB, you go get him when the chance is there. There would have been nothing wrong with taking Mahomes in 2017 and beginning a rebuild. The move was made because the Pegulas hired a HC and GM in the wrong order. If Josh Allen turns out to be as good or better than Mahomes, then it’s a wash. Depicting the trade down as some kind of great strategy only holds up if the players are comparable. If they’re not, what was so great about it? 

Edited April 21, 2019 by Boatdrinks

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

50 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

While I stated that Mahomes was a top prospect that year, I did not say he was viewed as a sure thing. To be certain, neither was the player they ended up drafting in Josh Allen. He was probably held in a lower regard than Mahomes was in the 2017 draft, actually. Cap space / situation has nothing to do with drafting a QB, as that player will be cost controlled for up to five years. If you believe in a QB, you go get him when the chance is there. There would have been nothing wrong with taking Mahomes in 2017 and beginning a rebuild. The move was made because the Pegulas hired a HC and GM in the wrong order. If Josh Allen turns out to be as good or better than Mahomes, then it’s a wash. Depicting the trade down as some kind of great strategy only holds up if the players are comparable. If they’re not, what was so great about it? 

 

50 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

While I stated that Mahomes was a top prospect that year, I did not say he was viewed as a sure thing. To be certain, neither was the player they ended up drafting in Josh Allen. He was probably held in a lower regard than Mahomes was in the 2017 draft, actually. Cap space / situation has nothing to do with drafting a QB, as that player will be cost controlled for up to five years. If you believe in a QB, you go get him when the chance is there. There would have been nothing wrong with taking Mahomes in 2017 and beginning a rebuild. The move was made because the Pegulas hired a HC and GM in the wrong order. If Josh Allen turns out to be as good or better than Mahomes, then it’s a wash. Depicting the trade down as some kind of great strategy only holds up if the players are comparable. If they’re not, what was so great about it? 

Ask David Carr if drafting a good QB to a bad roster was a good strategy.  Either way I respect your opinion.  Time will tell how it all works out.

[Boatdrinks]

25 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

 

Ask David Carr if drafting a good QB to a bad roster was a good strategy.  Either way I respect your opinion.  Time will tell how it all works out.

While Carr’s struggles are well documented, Mahomes wouldn’t have been forced to play in 2017 as the Bills had Tyrod Taylor. That roster made the playoffs at 9-7 fwiw. They were less talented in 2018 for sure, but Allen was pressed into service early on a bad roster, so no difference there. Time will tell, but Mahomes has the edge right now to be certain. 

Edited April 21, 2019 by Boatdrinks

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...just a hunch, but I'd bet McBeane has his #1 charted for every position followed by grades of 1-A, 1-B, 1-C, etc.....#1 is his Top Dawg and A, B, & C are graded with negligible differences among them....thinking the 1st round for him is DL/Edge/LB in whatever order (guess based on FA OL activity).... could he chase his #1 at 9 or move up?...sure.....OR.....does he move down in the 1st into the mid-teens to grab an extra 2nd, satisfied that A,B or C are available?....sure again....so what's this shrewd dude's move?......call?...check?...all in?....take door #2...draft picks for $1,000 Alex??........stay tuned.....

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

While I stated that Mahomes was a top prospect that year, I did not say he was viewed as a sure thing. To be certain, neither was the player they ended up drafting in Josh Allen. He was probably held in a lower regard than Mahomes was in the 2017 draft, actually. Cap space / situation has nothing to do with drafting a QB, as that player will be cost controlled for up to five years. If you believe in a QB, you go get him when the chance is there. There would have been nothing wrong with taking Mahomes in 2017 and beginning a rebuild. The move was made because the Pegulas hired a HC and GM in the wrong order. If Josh Allen turns out to be as good or better than Mahomes, then it’s a wash. Depicting the trade down as some kind of great strategy only holds up if the players are comparable. If they’re not, what was so great about it? 

 

 

There's no such thing as a "wrong order" in this case. It's done both ways; some of each succeed and some of each fail. We'll know which this is when we see how things turn out within the next few years.

 

And whether or not the decision looks good won't be decided by "whether Allen is as good or better than Mahomes." It will be by whether the Buffalo Bills turn out to have a team that is consistently competitive among the best in the league, McDermott and Beane's stated goal.

 

Also, a good part of the reason KC was in a great position to take Mahomes is that they could sit him for a year. He might easily not have done anywhere near as well if forced into action as a rook, or with such poor pieces as the Bills offense has had the past two years. Mahomes had a much better situation in nearly every way than Allen. There's no reason to think Beane would have taken Mahomes if he'd been here. He might have. Or he might not have.

 

 

42 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

While Carr’s struggles are well documented, Mahomes wouldn’t have been forced to play in 2017 as the Bills had Tyrod Taylor. That roster made the playoffs at 9-7 fwiw. They were less talented in 2018 for sure, but Allen was pressed into service early on a bad roster, so no difference there. Time will tell, but Mahomes has the edge right now to be certain. 

 

 

Had the Bills been planning to draft Mahomes, they might easily have bailed on Taylor to save money. That's what they did the year they decided to actually draft a QB.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Rampage]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're right that they don't need "extra guys."

 

What you get in the second and third round are not extra guys. Was Matt Milano an "extra guy" from the fifth round?

 

Not quoting me but I’ll answer. No, he wasn’t. But you’re not winning a Super Bowl with 11 Matt Milano’s on the defence. You need All-Pro talent and odds are much greater that you’ll take them in the first round compared to the others.

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There's no such thing as a "wrong order" in this case. It's done both ways; some of each succeed and some of each fail. We'll know which this is when we see how things turn out within the next few years.

 

And whether or not the decision looks good won't be decided by "whether Allen is as good or better than Mahomes." It will be by whether the Buffalo Bills turn out to have a team that is consistently competitive among the best in the league.

 

Also, a good part of the reason KC was in a great position to take Mahomes is that they could sit him for a year. He might easily not have done anywhere near as well if forced into action as a rook, or with such poor pieces as the Bills offense has had the past two years. Mahomes had a much better situation in nearly every way than Allen. There's no reason to think Beane would have taken Mahomes if he'd been here. He might have. Or he might not have.

 

 

When it influences passing on a QB that turns out to be successful, it’s the wrong order. As I pointed out, Allen was forced into service early anyway, and Tyrod Taylor was in place in 2017. That would allow Mahomes to sit for a year in Buffalo as he did in KC. While KCs roster was obviously more talented than Buffalo’s the issue is which QB is more talented ( I e better) ?  Since your judgement standard of whether the Bills end up consistenly among the league’s best is most largely influenced by the QB, it seems one and the same. 

[Thurman#1]

 

 

 

2

On 4/20/2019 at 11:19 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/04/2019-nfl-draft-buffalo-bills-more-than-open-to-trading-back-says-daniel-jeremiah.html

 

This is what I have been saying most the offseason, that I still think the Bills trade down from 9 if the right offer is there.  As we sit today, I think there could be a really good shot to trade with Miami so they can get the QB they want (Haskins or Lock) before teams like Den, Cin or Was (in a move up) can grab one.  I am working on my latest mock too and the way I see the top 8 going, I think the trade down becomes the move.  Below is small section of the article:

 

Why would the Bills be willing to move down? According to Jeremiah, there are 15 to 16 top guys in the draft. Here is what Jeremiah said in a conference call with the media on Thursday.

“You kind of look at it from a 30,000-foot view here, I think that there’s 15 to 16 players that everybody in the league kind of agrees are the top guys, and then after that once you get to 17, 18, all the way to 50 or 60, they’re in all different order there.”  

 

Buffalo could make a slight drop down from No. 9 and still land one of the best prospects in the class while also adding addition picks to select players from the second tier of available prospects.

 

 

 

 

Alphadawg, bad punctuation here leading to confusion.

 

Jeremiah only said, "“You kind of look at it from a 30,000-foot view here, I think that there’s 15 to 16 players that everybody in the league kind of agrees are the top guys, and then after that once you get to 17, 18, all the way to 50 or 60, they’re in all different order there.”

 

The writer of the NewYorkUpstate article is the one who said, "Buffalo could make a slight drop down from No. 9 and still land one of the best prospects in the class while also adding addition picks to select players from the second tier of available prospects."

 

I had to read all the way through Jeremiah's fifteen pages to realize he hadn't said that. Dude, come on!!!!!!!

 

 

[Thurman#1]

Can't seem to edit posts here sometimes, and this is an example. So I have to make a second post.

 

Here's the Jeremiah quote, "But I also hear when it comes to the Bills they’re a team that would be more than open to trading back," but it's not from the conference call but the OneBillsLive interview with Steve and Luke Tasker.

 

Wish I could edit or delete that last one. I'd eliminate it entirely. I'd found it wasn't in the Jeremiah article but hadn't yet checked the Talbot article. Oh, well. Sorry, Alphadawg.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Alphadawg7]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Can't seem to edit posts here sometimes, and this is an example. So I have to make a second post.

 

Here's the Jeremiah quote, "But I also hear when it comes to the Bills they’re a team that would be more than open to trading back," but it's not from the conference call but the OneBillsLive interview with Steve and Luke Tasker.

 

Wish I could edit or delete that last one. I'd eliminate it entirely. I'd found it wasn't in the Jeremiah article but hadn't yet checked the Talbot article. Oh, well. Sorry, Alphadawg.

 

I only included a few quotes.  It’s up to everyone to read the article if they want to see everything.  I literally copy and pasted consecutive paragraphs from the article.  Not sure what you’re complaining about here

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I only included a few quotes.  It’s up to everyone to read the article if they want to see everything.  I literally copy and pasted consecutive paragraphs from the article.  Not sure what you’re complaining about here

 

 

Read my next post.

 

But what I complained about is that you quoted Jeremiah as saying "Bills more than open to trading back," and then didn't show the quote in your post, leaving us wondering if he'd said that or not. And what you did quote seemed to indicate that the quote came from the conference call. A bit confusing.

 

But I tried to go back and edit it once I'd read the other article, and the interface for some bizarre reason wouldn't let me either edit or delete the post, or touch it at all, really. Has happened a few times lately.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Read my next post.

 

But what I complained about is that you quoted Jeremiah as saying "Bills more than open to trading back," and then didn't show the quote in your post, leaving us wondering if he'd said that or not. And what you did quote seemed to indicate that the quote came from the conference call. A bit confusing.

 

But I tried to go back and edit it once I'd read the other article, and the interface for some bizarre reason wouldn't let me either edit or delete the post, or touch it at all, really. Has happened a few times lately.

 

Not sure what happened with your edit, haven’t had that issue yet.  But maybe let SDS know. 

 

As far your comment, I copied and pasted word for word what the article said.  I didn’t say anyone said this or that.  I simply copy and pasted consecutive paragraphs.  So any issue you have with the body of the text is really originated in the article.  

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...just a hunch, but I'd bet McBeane has his #1 charted for every position followed by grades of 1-A, 1-B, 1-C, etc.....#1 is his Top Dawg and A, B, & C are graded with negligible differences among them....thinking the 1st round for him is DL/Edge/LB in whatever order (guess based on FA OL activity).... could he chase his #1 at 9 or move up?...sure.....OR.....does he move down in the 1st into the mid-teens to grab an extra 2nd, satisfied that A,B or C are available?....sure again....so what's this shrewd dude's move?......call?...check?...all in?....take door #2...draft picks for $1,000 Alex??........stay tuned.....

 

Beane said in his pre draft presser that he breaks down the 1st round into 3 groups.

There is a good chance that his pick at #9 will be at the cusp of group A and B.

If an A player isn't left I think the best choice he has is to get with CIN and see if they want to trade up 2 slots.

He probably only gets a 3rd for this but it will help him move back up in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

Trading down 2 picks (with one being a QB) will still give him most of his group B guys to choose from.

It's one trade I can really see happening.  Beane has a history with CIN.

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Beane said in his pre draft presser that he breaks down the 1st round into 3 groups.

There is a good chance that his pick at #9 will be at the cusp of group A and B.

If an A player isn't left I think the best choice he has is to get with CIN and see if they want to trade up 2 slots.

He probably only gets a 3rd for this but it will help him move back up in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

Trading down 2 picks (with one being a QB) will still give him most of his group B guys to choose from.

It's one trade I can really see happening.  Beane has a history with CIN.

 

...he's a sly dawg IMO...OBD's "Phil Ivey".....a snake and am glad for it.......