Patterns from OBD that have emerged in the Draft

[freddyjj]

As we are T-6 days and counting to draft, I wanted to note some exhibited behavior by OBD in the draft that will likely determine what they do next THU-SAT in Nashville.

 

1. Trade around in Rd 1.  OBD has shown aggressiveness to move up for targeted players and back when they feel need to acquire picks.
   1. In 2017 the Bills dropped out of Rd 1 Pick 10 for pick 27 and a 2018 1st rd Pick and change in a deal with KC.
   2. In 2018 the Bills made a pre-draft trade with Cordy Glenn to move from 21 to 12 in Rd 1.  And on draft day they moved from 12 to 7 (Tampa) using 1st Rd pick and 2 second Rders 53 and 56.  Also jumped up to 16 from 22 in Rd 1 trading Rd3 (65) from CLE that was obtained in Tyrod trade.
2. Trade up in second round to get targeted players.
   1. In 2017 both Zay Jones (2nd and a 3rd) and Dion Dawkins (3rd and 2 5ths)were targeted and grabbed in Rd2 using later picks in same draft.
3. OBD sets the table based on who's coming (and going).  
   1. 2017 was about accumulating some picks while addressing CB, OL, LB and WR.  At CB, Bills still had Darby but had lost Seymour in FA so need pick.  Tre White became CB1 immediately as evidenced when OBD dealt Darby away in preseason.  OLine pick was attempt to fill RT adequately.  Dawkins never played there and moved to LT with Glenn injuries.  Milano emerged as a real strong WIL in this D over the course of 2017 season.  WR was a need as Goodwin and Woods had left and Jones was seen as effective WR2.  Weird how all top 3 picks were asked to play a bigger role as rookies than we thought on draft day.  With how things played out they were crucial parts of rebuild.  Tre is an A so far, as is Milano with Dawkins a B and Jones a C in my book.
   2. 2018 we needed a QB and MLB as key positions and no starter ID'd.  Thus Josh and Tremaine targeted and drafted in Rd 1.  OLine, TE and WR was a need as well but was not adequately addressed.  There's a reason we signed 6 OLs, 3WRs and 2 TEs in FA!
   3. 2019 could leave OBD without 2DEs on roster as Shaq and Jerry could be gone.  Drafting a DE now may reveal OBD's intentions with either guy or both.
4. Pre-draft Depth chart is a tell.
   1. Today there is no clear starter at 3t DT, WR1, TE, RT, or CB2.  These are the places I see RD1 and RD2 picks being used.  And could see OBD move up/down to get draft capital to move around to get their guys in early rounds.
   2. Bills have 13 OLs under contract with majority on interior.  Most OLs have to use 8 players in course of season due to injury.  Bills have adequate depth now but with Waddle and Spain and on 1 year deals could see OT and/or OG drafted for long haul.  
5. Seniors and Freaks only need apply!
   1. Josh and Edmunds were underclassmen but OBD bet on their superior athleticism and Football intelligence.  Almost all their other picks were Srs and captains of their teams.
6. Back to the Future.
   1. Like OBD was in Polian/Butler days - there is no discrimination against smaller school players.  Reed/Beebe/Ballard/Tinsdale have their equals in Allen/Taron Johnson/Siran Neal as Bills scouts look for smart, tough and versatile players at any level that could help.  Sometimes a player that is an obvious fit is not so obvious.
7. Getting to Know You.
   1. Some great work by @YoloinOhio tracking all the Bills 30 visits, Prodays, Combine meetings and Astro's (Dean Kindig) reports on contacts will show which players the Bills have spent time with.  There are very few exceptions drafted who have not met with the Bills one on one.  I will be looking at this data over weekend.

 

All in all it seems much less pressure packed than last year as we have a QB and filled some holes in FA (not an option last year).  I won't hazard a guess who the Bills take first other than to say I doubt it will be at the 9th pick in Rd 1.  Hard for Beane and co. to break some clearly defined habits IMHO.

Edited April 19, 2019 by freddyjj
spelling

[Misterbluesky]

2.-Beane can do a lot of damage in a deep second round.

[glazeduck]

Great accumulation of thoughts here... 

 

To your point on 4.1: just because there's not a clear-cut defined starter doesn't mean that person isn't on the roster -- specifically at RT and CB2, I think we're fine with the guys that have been brought in. 

 

You touched on it, but there seems to be some thought given to the depth pipeline as well... It's a little extreme, but I think if we could consolidate 10 picks into 4 talented players at 3T, WR, TE and RB, I'd be very happy with that outcome... 

 

My dream scenario (emphasis on dream): 

1. Trade up to 5 to get Quinnen Williams

2. Package Zay and 2 to get DK

3. Bundle most of our remaining picks to get a top TE

4. Grab a higher potential RB in the late rounds

Edited April 19, 2019 by glazeduck

[Bill Murray]

I think you highlight the depth chart holes correctly and that will drive this draft.  The previous two drafts were so active because they were both about the QB...2017 was about getting the additional 2018 1st, and 2018 was about moving whatever you could to get Josh Allen.  This year I expect to be very different.  I suspect they will sit tight and take the best player that fits the holes you highlighted.

 

Given the sheer numbers at OL currently open the team, I think the first two picks will be DT and TE, or TE and DT.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they moved back up into the back of the 1st round for their second pick, but I generally expect them to stay at 9.  My guess is Ed Oliver and Fant or Irv Smith Jr.  I would be supportive if they took Hock at 9 and then moved back up for a DT in the 20s if someone falls.  

 

Also agree w @glazeduck, I think they have to come away w a RB, but I hope they go for it earlier in the 3rd or 4th. 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Bill Murray

[Alphadawg7]

21 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Great accumulation of thoughts here... 

 

To your point on 4.1: just because there's not a clear-cut defined starter doesn't mean that person isn't on the roster -- specifically at RT and CB2, I think we're fine with the guys that have been brought in. 

 

You touched on it, but there seems to be some thought given to the depth pipeline as well... It's a little extreme, but I think if we could consolidate 10 picks into 4 talented players at 3T, WR, TE and RB, I'd be very happy with that outcome... 

 

My dream scenario (emphasis on dream): 

1. Trade up to 5 to get Quinnen Williams

2. Package Zay and 2 to get DK

3. Bundle most of our remaining picks to get a top TE

4. Grab a higher potential RB in the late rounds

 

How do you propose they trade to 5 without giving up their 2nd round pick?  I love Quennin, dont get me wrong, but I doubt we can get to 5 without including our 2nd rounder this year.  That would be a big mistake to give up our 2nd.  

 

Personally, I still think SF takes Quennin #2 overall.  They have four first round DE's on the roster, including one they just gave up a 2nd round pick and a butt load of money for.  Quennin does more for that Defense than Bosa IMO.  

 

I believe Zay will be traded, not sure it will be on draft day.  But I don't know how we can do all these trades you are suggesting.  Now you are saying our 2nd rounder and Zay to get DK.  I dont think we can do that and also trade for Quennin, which I believe would command this years 2nd.  

[glazeduck]

6 minutes ago, Bill Murray said:

Also agree w @glazeduck, I think they have to come away w a RB, but I hope they go for it earlier in the 3rd or 4th. 

I just don't think there's a ton of value at RB any earlier and would much rather fill needs at WR, TE, and DT.

 

To me, the difference between the top guys like Jacobs, Henderson, Harris, Sanders and Montgomery to day 3 guys like Holyfield and Ryquell Armstead is not significant at all, relative to the other spots we're needing to fill...

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

2.-Beane can do a lot of damage in a deep second round.

 

THIS TIMES 1 MILLION.

 

This years 2nd round is way to valuable.  This is why I think there is very little chance we trade up from 9 UNLESS they can do it without giving up our 2nd, which seems unlikely to me.  

 

I think we stay put at 9...then Beane will make 2 trades.  He will trade up from 40 to get someone late first or earlier in the 2nd.  Then he will trade up again to get back into the 2nd round.  

 

We walk with 3 picks in first 2 rounds.  To be honest, I still think Beane could trade down from 9 depending how the draft falls to pick up an extra 2nd rounder too.  In that case, I think its possible we still do the other trades and walk away with 4 picks in first 2 rounds.  

[glazeduck]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How do you propose they trade to 5 without giving up their 2nd round pick?  I love Quennin, dont get me wrong, but I doubt we can get to 5 without including our 2nd rounder this year.  That would be a big mistake to give up our 2nd.  

 

Personally, I still think SF takes Quennin #2 overall.  They have four first round DE's on the roster, including one they just gave up a 2nd round pick and a butt load of money for.  Quennin does more for that Defense than Bosa IMO.  

 

I believe Zay will be traded, not sure it will be on draft day.  But I don't know how we can do all these trades you are suggesting.  Now you are saying our 2nd rounder and Zay to get DK.  I dont think we can do that and also trade for Quennin, which I believe would command this years 2nd.  

Again, I'm not saying it's 100% realistic...

 

I do think NYG would be motivated to move back though, so our 3 and, say next year's 2 could possibly be enough... 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Again, I'm not saying it's 100% realistic...

 

I do think NYG would be motivated to move back though, so our 3 and, say next year's 2 could possibly be enough... 

 

If we could get away with not trading away our 2nd, I am all for getting Q

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Again, I'm not saying it's 100% realistic...

 

I do think NYG would be motivated to move back though, so our 3 and, say next year's 2 could possibly be enough... 

I was thinking this but more in line with Green Bay. New coach. Aaron Rodgers is too big of a draw to not get him some help. If it’s offense or defense, his window is closing and they should be all in to take advantage of that now. They have two 1st rounders. 12 and 30 (I think). They should be targeted. 

 

I know the Raiders are in a similar boat that they have multiple first rounders. I can see them taking a stud at 3 and then possibly loving back up into the teens to get another one of “their guys” before it’s too late. 

 

My dream scenario is a trade down to the teens. Maybe Green Bay is a pipe dream. Either way, it will be in the table somewhere in the teens to move back. Then have Oakland fall in love with someone and feel they need to move up to get him. Giving you multiple firsts and multiple 2nds. 

 

Its definitely a dream scenario, but if all goes right, it is potentially realistic. Could still get a pair of studs in the DL with someone like Wilkins and Ferguson, or Burns with the 1st rounders. And then get yours TE and WR in the 2nd. Maybe Sternberger or Smith and Butler, Harry, Hall or Harmon

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

As we are T-6 days and counting to draft, I wanted to note some exhibited behavior by OBD in the draft that will likely determine what they do next THU-SAT in Nashville.

 

1. Trade around in Rd 1.  OBD has shown aggressiveness to move up for targeted players and back when they feel need to acquire picks.
   1. In 2017 the Bills dropped out of Rd 1 Pick 10 for pick 27 and a 2018 1st rd Pick and change in a deal with KC.
   2. In 2018 the Bills made a pre-draft trade with Cordy Glenn to move from 21 to 12 in Rd 1.  And on draft day they moved from 12 to 7 (Tampa) using 1st Rd pick and 2 second Rders 53 and 56.  Also jumped up to 16 from 22 in Rd 1 trading Rd3 (65) from CLE that was obtained in Tyrod trade.
2. Trade up in second round to get targeted players.
   1. In 2017 both Zay Jones (2nd and a 3rd) and Dion Dawkins (3rd and 2 5ths)were targeted and grabbed in Rd2 using later picks in same draft.
3. OBD sets the table based on who's coming (and going).  
   1. 2017 was about accumulating some picks while addressing CB, OL, LB and WR.  At CB, Bills still had Darby but had lost Seymour in FA so need pick.  Tre White became CB1 immediately as evidenced when OBD dealt Darby away in preseason.  OLine pick was attempt to fill RT adequately.  Dawkins never played there and moved to LT with Glenn injuries.  Milano emerged as a real strong WIL in this D over the course of 2017 season.  WR was a need as Goodwin and Woods had left and Jones was seen as effective WR2.  Weird how all top 3 picks were asked to play a bigger role as rookies than we thought on draft day.  With how things played out they were crucial parts of rebuild.  Tre is an A so far, as is Milano with Dawkins a B and Jones a C in my book.
   2. 2018 we needed a QB and MLB as key positions and no starter ID'd.  Thus Josh and Tremaine targeted and drafted in Rd 1.  OLine, TE and WR was a need as well but was not adequately addressed.  There's a reason we signed 6 OLs, 3WRs and 2 TEs in FA!
   3. 2019 could leave OBD without 2DEs on roster as Shaq and Jerry could be gone.  Drafting a DE now may reveal OBD's intentions with either guy or both.
4. Pre-draft Depth chart is a tell.
   1. Today there is no clear starter at 3t DT, WR1, TE, RT, or CB2.  These are the places I see RD1 and RD2 picks being used.  And could see OBD move up/down to get draft capital to move around to get their guys in early rounds.
   2. Bills have 13 OLs under contract with majority on interior.  Most OLs have to use 8 players in course of season due to injury.  Bills have adequate depth now but with Waddle and Spain and on 1 year deals could see OT and/or OG drafted for long haul.  
5. Seniors and Freaks only need apply!
   1. Josh and Edmunds were underclassmen but OBD bet on their superior athleticism and Football intelligence.  Almost all their other picks were Srs and captains of their teams.
6. Back to the Future.
   1. Like OBD was in Polian/Butler days - there is no discrimination against smaller school players.  Reed/Beebe/Ballard/Tinsdale have their equals in Allen/Taron Johnson/Siran Neal as Bills scouts look for smart, tough and versatile players at any level that could help.  Sometimes a player that is an obvious fit is not so obvious.
7. Getting to Know You.
   1. Some great work by @YoloinOhio tracking all the Bills 30 visits, Prodays, Combine meetings and Astro's (Dean Kindig) reports on contacts will show which players the Bills have spent time with.  There are very few exceptions drafted who have not met with the Bills one on one.  I will be looking at this data over weekend.

 

All in all it seems much less pressure packed than last year as we have a QB and filled some holes in FA (not an option last year).  I won't hazard a guess who the Bills take first other than to say I doubt it will be at the 9th pick in Rd 1.  Hard for Beane and co. to break some clearly defined habits IMHO.

good post. however i don't see us parting with Hughes, he is too good.

[Reed83HOF]

2017 was not Beane, I hesitate how much you use that draft as a trade up and trade down example. I excluded that draft for my thought process since the entire front office changed right after the draft. 

 

2018 on is what to look at. We seem to be aggressive when we zero in on a player - Allen and they had no scenarios where Edmunds was available at 22, he slid enough to make them move. I expect us to be aggressive here if they have someone ranked highly enough the depth below them...

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

As we are T-6 days and counting to draft, I wanted to note some exhibited behavior by OBD in the draft that will likely determine what they do next THU-SAT in Nashville.

 

1. Trade around in Rd 1.  OBD has shown aggressiveness to move up for targeted players and back when they feel need to acquire picks.
   1. In 2017 the Bills dropped out of Rd 1 Pick 10 for pick 27 and a 2018 1st rd Pick and change in a deal with KC.
   2. In 2018 the Bills made a pre-draft trade with Cordy Glenn to move from 21 to 12 in Rd 1.  And on draft day they moved from 12 to 7 (Tampa) using 1st Rd pick and 2 second Rders 53 and 56.  Also jumped up to 16 from 22 in Rd 1 trading Rd3 (65) from CLE that was obtained in Tyrod trade.
2. Trade up in second round to get targeted players.
   1. In 2017 both Zay Jones (2nd and a 3rd) and Dion Dawkins (3rd and 2 5ths)were targeted and grabbed in Rd2 using later picks in same draft.
3. OBD sets the table based on who's coming (and going).  
   1. 2017 was about accumulating some picks while addressing CB, OL, LB and WR.  At CB, Bills still had Darby but had lost Seymour in FA so need pick.  Tre White became CB1 immediately as evidenced when OBD dealt Darby away in preseason.  OLine pick was attempt to fill RT adequately.  Dawkins never played there and moved to LT with Glenn injuries.  Milano emerged as a real strong WIL in this D over the course of 2017 season.  WR was a need as Goodwin and Woods had left and Jones was seen as effective WR2.  Weird how all top 3 picks were asked to play a bigger role as rookies than we thought on draft day.  With how things played out they were crucial parts of rebuild.  Tre is an A so far, as is Milano with Dawkins a B and Jones a C in my book.
   2. 2018 we needed a QB and MLB as key positions and no starter ID'd.  Thus Josh and Tremaine targeted and drafted in Rd 1.  OLine, TE and WR was a need as well but was not adequately addressed.  There's a reason we signed 6 OLs, 3WRs and 2 TEs in FA!
   3. 2019 could leave OBD without 2DEs on roster as Shaq and Jerry could be gone.  Drafting a DE now may reveal OBD's intentions with either guy or both.
4. Pre-draft Depth chart is a tell.
   1. Today there is no clear starter at 3t DT, WR1, TE, RT, or CB2.  These are the places I see RD1 and RD2 picks being used.  And could see OBD move up/down to get draft capital to move around to get their guys in early rounds.
   2. Bills have 13 OLs under contract with majority on interior.  Most OLs have to use 8 players in course of season due to injury.  Bills have adequate depth now but with Waddle and Spain and on 1 year deals could see OT and/or OG drafted for long haul.  
5. Seniors and Freaks only need apply!
   1. Josh and Edmunds were underclassmen but OBD bet on their superior athleticism and Football intelligence.  Almost all their other picks were Srs and captains of their teams.
6. Back to the Future.
   1. Like OBD was in Polian/Butler days - there is no discrimination against smaller school players.  Reed/Beebe/Ballard/Tinsdale have their equals in Allen/Taron Johnson/Siran Neal as Bills scouts look for smart, tough and versatile players at any level that could help.  Sometimes a player that is an obvious fit is not so obvious.
7. Getting to Know You.
   1. Some great work by @YoloinOhio tracking all the Bills 30 visits, Prodays, Combine meetings and Astro's (Dean Kindig) reports on contacts will show which players the Bills have spent time with.  There are very few exceptions drafted who have not met with the Bills one on one.  I will be looking at this data over weekend.

 

All in all it seems much less pressure packed than last year as we have a QB and filled some holes in FA (not an option last year).  I won't hazard a guess who the Bills take first other than to say I doubt it will be at the 9th pick in Rd 1.  Hard for Beane and co. to break some clearly defined habits IMHO.

Just nitpicking but Allen was a RS Junior

 

 not an underclassmen

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

All in all it seems much less pressure packed than last year as we have a QB and filled some holes in FA (not an option last year).  I won't hazard a guess who the Bills take first other than to say I doubt it will be at the 9th pick in Rd 1.  Hard for Beane and co. to break some clearly defined habits IMHO.

Awesome Dude! I had a similar thought and pulled mine apart and stuck a bunch in the Matt Miller Oliver thread. When you look at what Beane & McD have said and what you put together I think we can start to put a pretty strong picture together as to where we are going!

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

THIS TIMES 1 MILLION.

 

This years 2nd round is way to valuable.  This is why I think there is very little chance we trade up from 9 UNLESS they can do it without giving up our 2nd, which seems unlikely to me.  

 

I think we stay put at 9...then Beane will make 2 trades.  He will trade up from 40 to get someone late first or earlier in the 2nd.  Then he will trade up again to get back into the 2nd round.  

 

We walk with 3 picks in first 2 rounds.  To be honest, I still think Beane could trade down from 9 depending how the draft falls to pick up an extra 2nd rounder too.  In that case, I think its possible we still do the other trades and walk away with 4 picks in first 2 rounds.  

 

The way I see it the Bills need offense. The value is not, in my opinion, there for offense in round 1. I have 20 first round grades and 17 are defensive players. So at the end of round one the defensive side has a 14 player lead. However, in my top 100 players (and I don't have my board right in front of my at this precise moment) the lead for defensive players is down to 4-6 players. It is something like 53-47. 

 

What that tells you is through rounds two to early round 4 there is offensive talent in this class. To me the Bills should go BPA at #9 (almost certainly a defender) and then use their 2nd, 3rd, two 4ths and two 5ths to try and get at least 4 picks between the start of 2 and say the 10th pick of the 4th round. That would allow them to get a receiver, a tight end, a developmental tackle and a young  back. All of which fit for me in that range where value will meet need. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The way I see it the Bills need offense. The value is not, in my opinion, there for offense in round 1. I have 20 first round grades and 17 are defensive players. So at the end of round one the defensive side has a 14 player lead. However, in my top 100 players (and I don't have my board right in front of my at this precise moment) the lead for defensive players is down to 4-6 players. It is something like 53-47. 

 

What that tells you is through rounds two to early round 4 there is offensive talent in this class. To me the Bills should go BPA at #9 (almost certainly a defender) and then use their 2nd, 3rd, two 4ths and two 5ths to try and get at least 4 picks between the start of 2 and say the 10th pick of the 4th round. That would allow them to get a receiver, a tight end, a developmental tackle and a young  back. All of which fit for me in that range where value will meet need. 

 

I agree with all of this with 2 exceptions:  DK Metcalf and TJ Hockenson.  I do not think they are a reach at 9.  I do think the viability of us drafting one with our first pick comes down to who else is still on the board and whether or not Beane trades back.  

 

I still think Beane could move back and pick up more capital in round 2 if the draft falls a certain way.  I certainly expect Beane to be aggressive starting in the mid to late first (possible trade back or possible trade up from 40) through round 4 to move around to get guys they covet.  

 

That being said, I am totally fine going DT or EDGE at 9 then going after offense after.  This is why I keep saying I believe there is very little chance we trade up from 9, its just unnecessary and a waste of picks given there will be multiple blue chip prospects who can really help this team at 9 on the board.  But our picks in round 2, 3, and both in round 4 are all great value this year with a substantially deep draft class at many positions we can use upgrades on.

 

My suspicion (in no particular order) is that we have 4 players chosen through 3 rounds that will include DL, WR, TE and the fourth player being either a RB or OL prospect.  

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

33 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How do you propose they trade to 5 without giving up their 2nd round pick?  I love Quennin, dont get me wrong, but I doubt we can get to 5 without including our 2nd rounder this year.  That would be a big mistake to give up our 2nd.  

 

Personally, I still think SF takes Quennin #2 overall.  They have four first round DE's on the roster, including one they just gave up a 2nd round pick and a butt load of money for.  Quennin does more for that Defense than Bosa IMO.  

 

I believe Zay will be traded, not sure it will be on draft day.  But I don't know how we can do all these trades you are suggesting.  Now you are saying our 2nd rounder and Zay to get DK.  I dont think we can do that and also trade for Quennin, which I believe would command this years 2nd.  

 

...just curious 'Dawg about a Zay trade....do you think there would be market interest and what may be the value?.......he's been beaten up badly around these parts and I'm not sure a GM sees value in rolling the dice on him with a pick...........

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I agree with all of this with 2 exceptions:  DK Metcalf and TJ Hockenson.  I do not think they are a reach at 9.  I do think the viability of us drafting one with our first pick comes down to who else is still on the board and whether or not Beane trades back.  

 

I still think Beane could move back and pick up more capital in round 2 if the draft falls a certain way.  I certainly expect Beane to be aggressive starting in the mid to late first (possible trade back or possible trade up from 40) through round 4 to move around to get guys they covet.  

 

That being said, I am totally fine going DT or EDGE at 9 then going after offense after.  This is why I keep saying I believe there is very little chance we trade up from 9, its just unnecessary and a waste of picks given there will be multiple blue chip prospects who can really help this team at 9 on the board.  But our picks in round 2, 3, and both in round 4 are all great value this year with a substantially deep draft class at many positions we can use upgrades on.

 

My suspicion (in no particular order) is that we have 4 players chosen through 3 rounds that will include DL, WR, TE and the fourth player being either a RB or OL prospect.  

 

 

 

Yea we disagree on DK and Hock. We both agree that offense is deep in this draft. Where we diverge is on the existence, or lack thereof depending on opinion, of elite offensive prospects.  

[McBean]

What the heck is this? A card counting thread to guess the deck?

 

Holy ***** man hurry up Thursday.

[Reed83HOF]

35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

THIS TIMES 1 MILLION.

 

This years 2nd round is way to valuable.  This is why I think there is very little chance we trade up from 9 UNLESS they can do it without giving up our 2nd, which seems unlikely to me.  

 

I think we stay put at 9...then Beane will make 2 trades.  He will trade up from 40 to get someone late first or earlier in the 2nd.  Then he will trade up again to get back into the 2nd round.  

 

We walk with 3 picks in first 2 rounds.  To be honest, I still think Beane could trade down from 9 depending how the draft falls to pick up an extra 2nd rounder too.  In that case, I think its possible we still do the other trades and walk away with 4 picks in first 2 rounds.  

 

I still think that if they do move up, he will try to include a 2020 #1 instead. It's hard to give up our #2 here, I would give up a 3rd this year though