Daniel Jeremiah mock #3 (Hockenson to Bills)

[whatdrought]

Hockenson and Oliver have reached the top of my wishlist. I’d be happy with either.

[dave mcbride]

38 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee.  What's one thing that they all have in common?  NONE OF THEM were taken in the 1st round, let alone the top 10.

Gronk would have been if not for the back issue. He was regarded as a generational talent at the position. He dropped because of the back, but still went near the top of the second round. Hockenson is no Gronk. 

[dubs]

49 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Meanwhile, Star and Jordan Phillips struggle at stopping the run and putting any pressure on the QB.

 

Its too bad the draft is only 1 round long. Would be awesome to get to draft more than one player each year. 

[dorquemada]

1 hour ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Unless you know for a fact that Hockenson is going to have a Tony Gonzalez/Gronkowski-esque, Hall of Fame career, NO tight end is worth the 9th pick. Full stop.

But, if they trade down into the teens, then, sure, take Hockenson or Noah Fant if they're the BPA.  Otherwise, if Jeremiah's mock holds true, I'd rather take Rashan Gary or Montez Sweat at 9 than a freaking tight end.

 

If there's one thing the Bills need, it's Aaron Maybin 2.0

[dave mcbride]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yes, that's the exact point.  That level of production is not worth a top-10 pick.

I think you're failing to factor in the possibility that teams often see having a very good TE as the best way to increase the possibility that the QB that the franchise revolves around will not flame out and will instead develop into a true franchise QB. Greg Olsen (a late first rounder) definitely made Newton a better and more consistent QB. Do you think Carolina regrets that pick? Like Olsen, Hockenson is 6'5". An elite TE is the best safety net a young QB could ever have, and let's face it: the Bills' fortunes for the next decade are going to rise and fall with Allen, not some DT who will likely be gone in five years. 

 

Also, how is TE not a major position? We're fans of a team that has never had a good one. Ernie Warlick is the best they've had. 

[gobills1212]

1 hour ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

You'd be elated to watch a defensive line that won't be able to get to the quarterback or stop the run?  Is your plan for them to use a 2nd on Khalen Saunders from the vaunted Western Illinois defense and hope that he turns into the next Aaron Donald or Fletcher Cox?

If that really is your plan, I hope watching Hockenson catch 300 passes for 40 touchdowns brings you joy, as the defense gets gashed in the running game week in and week out.

Yikes man, tell us how you REALLY feel....

[JM57]

36 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Walter Football keeps a pretty updated list of prospects who have visited OBD.  There are 3 TEs on that list: Noah Fant, Isaac Nauta and Jace Sternberger.  For what you're describing, Sternberger in the 3rd would make the most sense.

However, as I said earlier, if they trade down into the teens (while hopefully getting an extra 2nd) and they think Hockenson, or Fant, is the BPA, then take one of them.

You are obsessed with the defensive line and use Walter football as a reference. It's 2019 and you're stuck in 2002 my dude

[Mrbojanglezs]

it depends on how highly Daboll values TE, coming from NE, I bet its pretty high. We filled the WR bucket decently in FA, if the top DTs are off the board I could see this happening. Would create some nice PA fake opportunities out of 22 personnel.

 

Id rather try to trade down a few spots though and pick up another 2nd or 3rd.

[ndirish1978]

I doubt we take Hock is Sweat is sitting there

[CommonCents]

BPA in that scenario is Devin White. By a good margin. Don’t do it Beane.

[Nihilarian]

NFN, in 2014 this team has had the #4 overall defense with the #1 pass rush in the league and they didn't even make the playoffs.

 

Oh yea, the player that cost the team two firsts and a fourth in Sammy Watkins played in all 16 games was targeted 128 times and caught 65 receptions for 982 yards, 6 TDs. Watkins had a 50.8 catch percentage. 

 

TJ Hockensen caught 49 passes for 750 yards, 6 Tds last season for the Hawkeyes and dropped one pass! 

 

 

 

 

[Rocket94]

Devin White will probably be gone...I would not hesitate to take him. Reminds me of Patrick Willis. I would find somewhere to put him.

[NewEraBills]

Wouldn't be thrilled with the pick but wouldn't hate it either.

[MrEpsYtown]

If that's the way the board falls I am all for Hockenson. He's a pretty unique prospect in a lot of ways and I think that our team is in a unique situation. Forget about bias from the past and things of that nature. His selection here makes a ton of sense on a lot of levels. And he's a better prospect than all the crap offensive linemen that people want becuase they are safe. He's likely the BPA in that situation. I also, and I've mentioned this a bunch of times, think that the Bills would be wise to hide their interest in Hockenson as best as they can to avoid having someone trade up into that 8 spot. 

[Cornette's Commentary]

7 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

NFN, in 2014 this team has had the #4 overall defense with the #1 pass rush in the league and they didn't even make the playoffs.

 

Oh yea, the player that cost the team two firsts and a fourth in Sammy Watkins played in all 16 games was targeted 128 times and caught 65 receptions for 982 yards, 6 TDs. Watkins had a 50.8 catch percentage. 

 

TJ Hockensen caught 49 passes for 750 yards, 6 Tds last season for the Hawkeyes and dropped one pass! 

 

 

 

 

Well, the QBs in that season were EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton.

[Rocket94]

I would not hate it. Devin White appears to be for real. 

[hjnick]

1 hour ago, JM57 said:

I've been "stanning" for Hockenson for a couple months now  Beane's quote yesterday got me excited at first, where he was saying they grade tight ends 3 ways and I thought that really was good for Hockenson since he is both a very capable blocker and receiver. 

 

However the more I've digested it I don't think he's the pick right now. That's just too obviously broadcasting your love for a guy, a la Doug Whaley.

This is the Beane quote that stood out to me..

"If your down at this level in the draft, let's just say you're at 25, and you have a guy that is on the top tier of your draft board. The first round, I divide it into three (tiers): top, middle and bottom. If you have a guy in the top tier, he's by himself up there and think he's a real impact - you're talking about a rare player at his position, that might be the time to do it. But you also have to consider what is the cost? Is the cost too much where it's going to effect the rest of your draft or potentially future drafts?"

 

Like it is has always been, it really depends on how Beane (and the staff) see Hock. If he's a Gronk style of player (all pro, good at all 3 phases), he will be considered for the 9th pick.  Anything less than a Gronk style player and they will pass.

 

With that mock, I'd love for Buffalo to trade down to around 13 and Hock still might be there...

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, WMDman said:

Ed Oliver over Quinnen Williams would be a shock

Agreed. But say if Oliver and Williams switched college teams, how would both look?  Williams is a really good player on an all time great defensive line.  Oliver was the only guy in Houston.  DJ is one of the best draft “experts” in the business. 

[thebandit27]

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think you're failing to factor in the possibility that teams often see having a very good TE as the best way to increase the possibility that the QB that the franchise revolves around will not flame out and will instead develop into a true franchise QB. Greg Olsen (a late first rounder) definitely made Newton a better and more consistent QB. Do you think Carolina regrets that pick? Like Olsen, Hockenson is 6'5". An elite TE is the best safety net a young QB could ever have, and let's face it: the Bills' fortunes for the next decade are going to rise and fall with Allen, not some DT who will likely be gone in five years. 

 

Also, how is TE not a major position? We're fans of a team that has never had a good one. Ernie Warlick is the best they've had. 

 

I guess I look at it this way: the absolute best TEs touch the ball 80+ times per year and accumulate over 1,000 yards in offense.  If you feel very confident that you're getting one of those guys, then yeah, use a top-10 pick.

 

By contrast, when you get past the top 3 TEs in the game, you're into WR2-at-best numbers, and that's only 3-4 players...and I'm not convinced that a WR2 is worth a top-10 pick.

 

It's different if you're talking about a LT that is a terrific pass blocker and can handle his business in the run game; that's a guy that's going to be effective on every snap, and potentially take away a defense's most critical asset: it's top pass-rusher.  When you look at a TE, can he be a downright dominant blocker so as to effect the game every snap, AND be a key receiving threat in the passing game?  Those guys are extremely rare.  So rare, in fact, that Olsen is really the last first-round TE to have a very good career.

[C.Biscuit97]

59 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

A blocking TE isn’t top 10 pick material unless he’s also putting up big numbers in the passing game.

Yeah, that fair.  I think this franchise terrible underrates TE and I think every young qb needs a good one. Kroft is ok and so is Croom.  I would love to have a legit matchup nightmare who is a great blocker.  TEs do so much for your offense.