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(Good Read) Which Positions Are the Safest, Riskiest at the Top of the NFL Draft?


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With the draft right around the corner (11 days, 6 hrs, 9 mins as of this posting, but who's counting?), I thought this informative article would show people a little draft history.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

Edited by Peace Frog
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7 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average.

 

I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure.

 

I wonder if it's because those positions play the most similar from college to pro game?

Qb, wr, rb probably see the biggest differences in college career pro schemes, so they gave the hardest transition, as well as they are the hardest to project.

I wonder if teams reach for them more often as well, where a ot/ol or lb are typicy but drafted high unless they are clearly a game changer

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9 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

I think there is a chance Devin White falls to 9.  

 

He's pretty good.

I mean I've got my top3 (Oliver, hock, DK, in no particular order) but I wouldn't be too upset with white at #9 if he is there.

Edited by SouthNYfan
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37 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I wonder if it's because those positions play the most similar from college to pro game?

 Qb, wr, rb probably see the biggest differences in college career pro schemes, so they gave the hardest transition, as well as they are the hardest to project.

 

With the combine it's really easy to scout who the best athletes are, so somebody who's a great athlete that plays a position that's similar to college ball is a good player. I could see this being why Guard, Safety and Linebacker are the safest. 

 

In most cases, it's a lot harder to scout a position where the skills and skill level changes a lot. Quarterback especially is the most overdrafted position and I'm not convinced anybody has a clue how to evaluate them.

 

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19 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

My hunch is that DT would be "safer" than DE. There seems to be an Aaron Maybin or 2 in the first round of every draft.

 

I think DT is safer, with a higher floor generally

I think there are less all pro elite DT that de though as well

I really do think they should have separated them

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5 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

The study shows why I have concerns with people saying we should take a WR or TE at 9.  It smalls of over-reaching for need vs. using the pick wisely.

I would only have concerns with what people say if I thought Brandon Beane listens to anybody outside the team structure when it comes to making a draft pick.  Fans can spout foolishness all they want.  LOL

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Hmm. I wonder if this is just a numbers issue.  In each conference, there are two guards, two tackles, two safeties, and four linebackers named All-Pro.  Typically there is only one TE.  That would not explain everything like the fact only a single center is named and they have a high success rare at least two WRs are named and they have a low success rate.    

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12 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average.

 

I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure.

 

Could be LB as well.

 

Maybe the Devins

 

 

 

TEs do have second highest rate of prow bowlers , just saying ... (Hockenson)

 

 

Interesting RBs have been bigger busts than QBs.

 

 

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They provided decent logic as to why it's not wise to use "how many became All-Pros," as an indicator.

 

However, they lost me when they said they'd use, "how many became Pro Bowlers," instead.  Stopped reading right there.

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