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IgotBILLStopay

First Round Draft strategy: When to trade up and for whom?

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I have gone and seen tape of the top 30 or so prospects and come to the following conclusions. Draft strategy will be Bills-specific - so overall draft grade (BPA) plus Bills' needs will jointly play a role in determining strategy). Also I will try to figure out what the teams above are likely to do.  I consider only non-QBs, non CBs (yes you never ever draft a CB in the top 10) and non-LBs (Bills dont need one).

 

In my mind there are 3 guys who have surefire top 5 grades (Bosa, Allen and Q. Williams) and another 2 players who have surefire top 10 grades (Ed Oliver and Jawaan Taylor). Even with the surefire top 5 graded players, there is only one player we should trade up for and that is a guy I have been excited about since I saw him destroy LSU's OL - Q. Williams. The guy can play 3-tech or even Edge (if necessary) in a 4-3 (yes he can play nose tackle in a 3-4 but that would be a waste in the NFL much like Ed Oliver's experience at the college level). Additionally, his fit alongside Lotuleilei is just perfect. Star absorbs double teams very well without effecting a  rush - so Q. complements him perfectly. And if we need to use Harrison Phillips as a 3-tech in some situations, Q.'s bulk is good enough for him to play Star's role. Clearly whether we trade up for Q. or not is going to depend upon compensation demanded. I think trading into the top 4 will be very expensive - thus the trade up scenario will only work if Q. falls to 5 or lower. Actually, it appears likely that he will fall to at least 4 - since the Cards are taking Kyler, the Niners are taking Bosa or Allen (they have DeForest Buckner at 3-tech Tackle). Similarly the Jets have Leonard Williams at 3-tech Tackle (they will play 4-3 with Gregg Williams despite public announcements that it will be a 3-4) and there is no way a combination of the two Williamses will work. So the Jets will likely take Josh Allen or Bosa (and edge is a major need for them).

 

The draft intrigue starts with the Raiders. Will they go QB? They do have last year's first rounder Hurst paired with the solid PJ Hall at Tackle - so Tackle is the one position they appear well set at. At Edge and LB, on the other hand, they desperately need upgrades. So even if they do not go QB, they might go with a Montez Sweat or Devin White dropping Q. to 5 or below. Tampa Bay wants a LB in the worst way possible but have the 5th pick. If the Raiders take Devin White, Tampa Bay's pick may be for sale. It would likley take #9, #40 and next year's 2nd rounder to move  to #4. There is a good chance that Tampa itself would not pick Q. Williams since they are going to play 3-4 under Arians and already have Vita Vea as a prototypical 3-4 Nose Tackle. I think it might be safe to not trade with Tampa Bay and assume that if Q. has fallen to 5, he will likely fall to 6 (assuming no other team wants to leapfrog the Bills and trade for Q.). If TB doesnt trade down, they might take Devin White here.

 

At 6, you have the Giants. I still think they are going QB here. But if not, this is the spot Q. Williams can go since Giants have holes everywhere. They also supposedly like Oliver, Sweat and Gary as well - but I cant see them take Gary over Williams. But given the holes, they are definitely a team that wants to trade down - so I think #9 + two thirds (2019 + 2020) might net us #6.

 

Jags at #7 - I doubt they would take Q. They just restructured Dareus' contract and if there is one player Williams closely resembles, it is Dareus as a rookie. Also their OL needs are as bad as it can get - so I am penciling in Jawaan Taylor to the Jags.

 

We get lucky and the draft plays out with Oakland taking Sweat, Tampa Bay taking Devin White, Giants going QB and Jags going JT, we are sitting pretty with either Oliver or Q. assured of falling to us. Alternatively, we can always offer the Jags a third rounder to move up and get Q. 

 

I have been reading that Detroit is in love with Hockenson and want him at #8.  Only reason we trade up with Detroit is if another team like the Falcons are trading with them to get Q. Teams 10 (Denver who is all in on Lock), 11 (Bengals likely QB or  Cody Ford), #12 GB (Edge rusher), #13 Miami saving picks for Tua are unlikely to trade up for Quinnen Williams - for the others the cost will be steep and Bills can likely beat their offers.

 

In summary, I think the sweet trade up spots are #6 or #7 in case Quinnen Williams falls past 5.

 

 

Edited by IgotBILLStopay
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Didn’t we just do this? 

Oh, and I’ll be SHOCKED if Q. Williams gets past 5. 

 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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13 minutes ago, Buffalo86 said:

I think it would be for whom.

 

I was trying to tread lightly, while just making the point. (But stuff like that actually gets under my skin....I need to chill a bit, I admit.) 

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It would be great if this site crashed until the 27th.  Come on to maybe see a worthwhile thread to read through but nope.. Still the same crap as the day before and the day before that.  

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12 hours ago, Buffalo86 said:

I think it would be for whom.

 

12 hours ago, Buffalo86 said:

I think it would be for whom.

You are right. My bad. 

Edited by IgotBILLStopay

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we might use our extra late round picks to move back into the 3rd but maybe back into first round 25+ if fant or tj fall.

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3 minutes ago, bkep32 said:

we might use our extra late round picks to move back into the 3rd but maybe back into first round 25+ if fant or tj fall.

Yes you right. I was only analyzing trade up from #9. But we can use #40 and combine it with other picks to trade up into the first round as well. 

 

But it I suspect that would only happen if we trade down from #9 first and pick up an extra 2nd. We use that to move up to the 25 to 32 range.

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i don't see giving away 2,3,and 4th rd. picks to move up. it's gonna cost way too much.  that being said, if we are stuck at 9 and the top guys along with oliver and sweat are gone,  i wouldn't be surprised to see dexter lawrence be the pick.  chris simm's take on him as the no. 2 dt got my attention. my biggest take away before was considering who he was playing with and him being a junior, but i'd be fine with that pick.

Edited by billsredneck1

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The only player beano should trade up for with the first pick is for q.  He's a beast, it would be awesome seeing him in a bills uniform sacking Brady. 

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Bosa, Allen & Williams are 3 guys worth trading up for, but not if we trade away our 2nd round pick. I think the more likely scenario is trading back up to get 2 picks in the 1st or 2nd round if there is a guy at a position of need (Edge, DT, CB, LB or RB) that they have rated as a steal at that point or there is a considerable drop off in talent after him. I mention CB here because of its importance. RB and LB because we are thin and a bit older at those positions.

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Williams is the only player for whom I think there is a possibility of a trade up.  Bosa and Josh Allen will go way too early because they are elite edge rushers, and edge rushers generate stats.  Williams is arguably the best player in the draft, and besides he would replenish our shortage of players named Williams.  As they say, you never can have too many players named Williams.  I'll be a bit surprised if Williams drops to 5, but it's not impossible.  If he does, I guarantee it will generate buzz in the Bills' war room.

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We will not trade up.  Notice that there are 3 top notch DT's and we haven't signed any FA DT to date? 

 

We pick at 9 and can get our impact player there without a trade up.  I see the following:

 

position     top 9 pick                               others close behind

======================================================

DT             Williams, Wilkins, Oliver       Gary,  Simmons    

LB                White  <=>                            Bush

OT               Taylor                                    Dillard,  Ford,  Risern, Williams

DE               Boz,  Allen, Sweat                 Ferrel, Burns 

QB              Murray, Haskins                     Lock

TE                                                                Iowa  one of two

CB/S                                                           maybe one?

 

So I see 10 players within the top 9.   It is pretty sure that  3 DE,  2 DT, and 2QB will go (or last to #9).  That is 7 gone and leaves us with an impact DT,  OL or LB.  If the Bills brass has a  "Mr Wonderful", who is taken prior to us, there are excellent other impact players available for our pick at #9, or (if there is a deal we can't refuse) for a trade down.  "Trade downs" combined with some "trades up" with extra ammo, should give another 1st round impact player.  

 

We are in a good place without trading up.

 

 

 

Edited by maryland-bills-fan

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8 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

 

Williams is the only player for whom I think there is a possibility of a trade up.  Bosa and Josh Allen will go way too early because they are elite edge rushers, and edge rushers generate stats.  Williams is arguably the best player in the draft, and besides he would replenish our shortage of players named Williams.  As they say, you never can have too many players named Williams.  I'll be a bit surprised if Williams drops to 5, but it's not impossible.  If he does, I guarantee it will generate buzz in the Bills' war room.

I think Josh Allen is being projected too high. Chris Simms, for example, had him as the fourth ranked edge rusher, behind Bosa, Gary and Sweat.  I could see him dropping a bit and I’d be absolutely opposed to any trade up from 9.  Too expensive and way too much uncertainty regarding who the best prospects are.  

7 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

We will not trade up.  Notice that there are 3 top notch DT's and we haven't signed any FA DT to date? 

 

We pick at 9 and can get our impact player there without a trade up.  I see the following:

 

position     top 9 pick                               others close behind

======================================================

DT             Williams Wilkins Oliver         Gary,  Simmons    

LB                White  <=>                            Bush

OT               Taylor                                    Dillard,  Ford,  Risern, Williams

DE               Boz,  Allen, Sweat                 Ferrel, Burns 

QB              Murray, Haskins                     Lock

TE                                                                Iowa  one of two

CB/S                                                           maybe one?

 

So I see 10 players within the top 9.   It is pretty sure that  3 DE,  2 DT, and 2QB will go (or last to #9).  That is 7 gone and leaves us with an impact DT,  OL or LB.  If the Bills brass has a  "Mr Wonderful", who is taken prior to us, there are excellent other impact players available for our pick at #9, or (if there is a deal we can't refuse) for a trade down.  "Trade downs" combined with some "trades up" with extra ammo, should give another 1st round impact player.  

 

We are in a good place.

 

 

Agree with this, except I have feeling they’ve got Gary ranked ahead of everyone but Bosa and Q Williams.

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1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

We will not trade up.  Notice that there are 3 top notch DT's and we haven't signed any FA DT to date? 

 

We pick at 9 and can get our impact player there without a trade up.  I see the following:

 

position     top 9 pick                               others close behind

======================================================

DT             Williams, Wilkins, Oliver       Gary,  Simmons    

LB                White  <=>                            Bush

OT               Taylor                                    Dillard,  Ford,  Risern, Williams

DE               Boz,  Allen, Sweat                 Ferrel, Burns 

QB              Murray, Haskins                     Lock

TE                                                                Iowa  one of two

CB/S                                                           maybe one?

 

So I see 10 players within the top 9.   It is pretty sure that  3 DE,  2 DT, and 2QB will go (or last to #9).  That is 7 gone and leaves us with an impact DT,  OL or LB.  If the Bills brass has a  "Mr Wonderful", who is taken prior to us, there are excellent other impact players available for our pick at #9, or (if there is a deal we can't refuse) for a trade down.  "Trade downs" combined with some "trades up" with extra ammo, should give another 1st round impact player.  

 

We are in a good place without trading up.

 

 

 

I dont mind getting one of Williams, Oliver, Allen or Bosa at #9. My point was that teams in front of us need Edge rushers more than Defensive Tackles. That gives a shot at Williams or Oliver at 9 or by trading a small distance up. I consider Gary  a DE, not DT. 

Edited by IgotBILLStopay

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3 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

Williams won't make it past 6 at the latest.

 

If the Giants go Qb at 6, he can fall to 7. But if he has dropped to 6, the Bills should explore a trade with the Giants, who might want t o trade down and collect draft capital.

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8 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

If the Giants go Qb at 6, he can fall to 7. But if he has dropped to 6, the Bills should explore a trade with the Giants, who might want t o trade down and collect draft capital.

So, to move from 9 to 6, you'd be willing to give up a 2nd and maybe one of the two 4ths for Quinnen Williams?  Fair enough.  Now, how do you go about addressing the wide receiver position?

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12 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

If the Giants go Qb at 6, he can fall to 7. But if he has dropped to 6, the Bills should explore a trade with the Giants, who might want t o trade down and collect draft capital.

 

Gettleturd doesn't seem like a "trade down" kinda guy

I mean anything goes with him

This is the brain trust who drafted a rb @#2 last year ahead of Allen and darnold

 

😂😂

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@IgotBILLStopay

 

I haven’t considered him him this whole draft season as I always thought he was out of reach.  Additionally, even though we’ve filled a number of holes, we still have others to fill.

 

All that said I believe I am with you on this, and I would give up a quite bit to do it.

 

With this move I think an already good/great defense becomes an absolute mess for opposing offenses to play against. 

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
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22 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

It would be great if this site crashed until the 27th.  Come on to maybe see a worthwhile thread to read through but nope.. Still the same crap as the day before and the day before that.  

 

 

And now, you've contributed to it.

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4 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Gettleturd doesn't seem like a "trade down" kinda guy

I mean anything goes with him

This is the brain trust who drafted a rb @#2 last year ahead of Allen and darnold

 

😂😂

You are right. By my count he has traded up 6 times but never traded down. But the widespread criticism from last year when he coulda Trubiskyed the Jets and picked Barkley might make him willing to trade down this year. 

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7 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

You are right. By my count he has traded up 6 times but never traded down. But the widespread criticism from last year when he coulda Trubiskyed the Jets and picked Barkley might make him willing to trade down this year. 

 

Very true, although he seems like a stubborn pr*ck who will not listen to criticism

I think when you trade back you need to not have any specific targets in mind, knowing that your specific guy might not be there, so you need to be willing to accept multiple players at that spot.

 

That Chicago trade is tough to gauge though

They gave up 2017 third and fourth (#67, #111) and a 2018 third (#70) to swap up to #2 from #3

While it seems really terrible on paper in hindsight, let's not forget that the 49ers QBs of 2016 were kaep and gabbert, and they went into 2017 with CJ beathard and hoyer at the helm.

They didn't trade for Jimmy g until October of '17.

It was very likely they would select a QB at #2 and the bears didn't want to lose their guy.

There also might have been other offers on the table so they may have had to beat them.

 

 

The picks ultimately led to:

 

Chicago :

-trubisky (#2 2017)

 

SF :

-Solomon thomas DE (#3 2017)

-akhello Witherspoon (#66 2017)

-rueben Foster (#31 2017)

-dante Pettis (#44 2018)

 

Witherspoon, Foster, and Pettis were through packaging their own picks with the ones from the trade, and the other players selected with their picks were kamara, guice, and I forget the others....

It was a bunch of crazy trades!!

I now that was a tangent and I didn't finish it because I got lost in the trade-web 😂

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