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BillsFan1988

Sweet Spots for Trade up during Draft

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Agree most are contracts they can easily walk away from, but then could be shaky fro ma talent standpoint.

 

also agree with you on I'd rather trade down to between 12 and 16, get an extra 2nd rounder at a minimum, likely something more, then use the extra picks to trade back up into bottom of 1st.

 

I don’t get how it will be talent drain moving on. Say Bills snag a OG/C later (use McGovern for example). In camp he plays up to the level of Long (where is the talent drain then cutting one of their newly signed IOL? 

 

Have same or or better play based on competition. Now young and Cost Controlled. At the BU C/OG position. 

 

Outside of like 3 players None of the other 16 or so signings are locked in 

Edited by MAJBobby
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Just now, Formerly Allan in MD said:

You never have too much OL.  And many are on one year deals.  We still need a long term young stud OT.

We will only keep 8.

Dawkins, Nseke, McDermott

Spain, Teller, Long, Feliciano,

Morse,Sirles, Fisher, Long, Boeinnger

 

That is 12 right there.  It's a numbers game.  Are you going to cut all those FA OL you just signed to decent contracts?  Or are you going to cut Teller and Sirles after honing them for our system and culture for a year? They will be picked up within an hour on waiver wire. OL cuts will be very tough this year.  If you keep adding more OL when we already have too many, the Bills then become the farm system of the NFL for OL.  Teams can just sit back and wait for the Turk to arrive at One Bills Drive.  I am all about improving OL, and think Beane has done great job.  I myself prioritize TE and DL over OL, and there is much less depth there

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

I should of added in case we take Taylor or Dilliard at #9 who we can trade up for at #21/22. 

Andre Dillard at 9 is a fireable offense.  He's a late 1st, early 2nd round prospect that is NOT worth the 9th pick, or the 11th pick as Joe B thinks in his latest mock.

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I don't know whether there is really a sweet spot for trading up or not.  It seems to me that things like teams moving up to draft QB's or a serious run on a particular position create the opportunities to trade up or down.  Nine may not be high enough to get one of the coveted QB's and it may be so high that the run on a particular position has not materialized.  Some posters act as though Beane merely needs to decide to trade up or down and it will happen.  It takes two teams with agreement over the price of the trade.  After reading a lot about this draft class, there are about 12 guys that look to be very high quality picks.  The next tier seems to be valued more than other years and may include the next 40 players.  If you can get one of those top 12 and two of the next 40, you've done a good job.  This would require a move up toward the end of day one or early on day two.

 

I'm hoping for teams moving up to snag a QB.  This may create a chance to move down and still get one of the players that they value but with a lower pick (plus gaining an extra day two pick).

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53 minutes ago, Pete said:

We have too much OL, WR, Edge-especially if we plan on drafting any.  I am guessing Beane moves a player, and it would't surprise me to see him pull off a big trade for Frank Clark or someone like him. It's obvious Beane is trying to shore up pass rush across from Hughes.  Maybe someone like Shaq or Zay gets packaged.  I only see them trading up for Williams, Allen, and Oliver- and not overpaying.  But me thinks Beane stays pat and hopes his DT is there at 9.   If 7 DL go before pick 9- who knows what Beane does then?  We are going BPA which can be any position outside QB.  We have 10 picks to improve upon on a deep roster. In past years we have had good ideas who we were going to select, Rueben Brown for example.  Well this year Beane is a complete mystery.  All those picks can take this team in many directions(offense heavy, D heavy, BPA, etc).  This draft will be the wildest, most exciting draft I can ever recall.  And it might set our course to greatness

I like the trade idea - Shaq plus Zay for Frank Clark. We pay the big bucks for Clark instead of picking up Shaq's option. We throw in Zay as Seattle needs a WR. We would have to also throw in a mid round pick as Seattle is in need of picks. Since we would now have our pass rusher, more options now become available with pick #9.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

I don't think the Bills will trade our 1st in 2020 to move up in this draft so I'm listing the teams where we can move up to that meets the value . 

 

Top Players the Bills will target to move up for Bosa, Allen, Quinnen or possibly Oliver 

 

 

#5 Bucs- The Bucs have needs at LB, Pass Rush and possibly Oline so there definitely a team that can entertain moving back with the Bills if there's a player or players they identify at #9 . The cost could be a 2nd this yr and a 3rd in 2020 or and even more to move up for us.

 

#6 NYG- Same as the Bucs the Giants have many holes to fill can be willing to move bk 3 spots to #9 , price possibly a 3 & 5 to get there .

 

 Bottom of first 

 

21/22 Seahawks or Ravens  I listed these teams together because there pretty much in the same situation . They both don't have a 2nd rd pk and there both teams that love to take BPA . Knowing this draft has the same type of players from 20s to 40s these 2 teams will look to move bk.  The Price is a 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th . I also have been hearing multiple reports that these teams are both seeking to trade bk.

 

Now depending on who we take at #9 these can be the player or players we move up for. 

 

# 9 - Hock, if we draft Hockenson the Bills can possibly move up for either DTs Wilkins, Simmons, Tillery or Lawerence and at DE Burns or Ferrell.  

 

# 9- Oliver or Sweat- if we go DT or DE I wouldn't rule out us trading up for the other position on the Dline . Same players I listed above can be there . Also if we are seeking a player on offense the targets can be TE Noah Fant or WR DK Metcalf. 

 

The question is what would be the best combination to trade up for in this draft. These are just a few examples here on the bottom feel free to come up with your own. 

 

1. Hock and Wilkins 

2. Oliver and Fant 

3. Oliver and Burns

4. Sweat and Simmons

 

 

 

 

 

 

Me, I think any trade where we have to give away a third or more isn't in a sweet spot. More sour unless you traded back from nine and picked up an extra three or something like that.

Edited by Thurman#1

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1 hour ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

The more I think about it the more I believe we'll trade up.  Beane has already shown he'll go that route to get someone he truly covets.  With all the holes he's filled thru free agency, he has little need for the multitude of draft picks he has this year.  Of course next year, because so many of the free agents are on one year deals, that will likely be a different story.  But Beane's bean appears to know what it's doing. 

 

 

Certainly possible.

 

But last year was absolutely not an ordinary year. Their main draft goal for 2017 and 2018 both together was to accumulate enough draft capital to trade up for a QB. 

 

But after they'd already picked Allen, they traded up again, people say. Yeah, but they'd gathered so much capital that after Allen they still had yet another 1st, as well as two thirds. So after they traded up for Edmunds, they had taken two guys in the first. So by the end of the third they had made three picks, namely two firsts and a third. After two rounds they had two guys, after three rounds, three, and so it went till the fifth, after which they had six guys.

 

This year they have two fourths and two fifths. (By the way, I wouldn't call what we have a "multitude," myself.) I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them trading one or both of those extras. I don't think they'll be so thrilled about trading away any picks earlier than that.

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Lots of quality players in rounds 1 - 3.  I'd rather trade down and pick up an extra pick in round 2 or 3.  We could get a combination of players like:

 

OT Rizner or McGary.

DE Burns or Ferguson.

TE Smith or Fant.

WR AJ Brown or Harry.

RB Sanders or Jacobs.

DT Simmons or Wilkins.

etc.

 

 

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I could see Seattle looking for picks.  Trade 40 and 2 4th rders.  They could go so many ways this year.  

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1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I don't know whether there is really a sweet spot for trading up or not.  It seems to me that things like teams moving up to draft QB's or a serious run on a particular position create the opportunities to trade up or down.  Nine may not be high enough to get one of the coveted QB's and it may be so high that the run on a particular position has not materialized.  Some posters act as though Beane merely needs to decide to trade up or down and it will happen.  It takes two teams with agreement over the price of the trade.  After reading a lot about this draft class, there are about 12 guys that look to be very high quality picks.  The next tier seems to be valued more than other years and may include the next 40 players.  If you can get one of those top 12 and two of the next 40, you've done a good job.  This would require a move up toward the end of day one or early on day two.

 

I'm hoping for teams moving up to snag a QB.  This may create a chance to move down and still get one of the players that they value but with a lower pick (plus gaining an extra day two pick).

I made this post explaining why Sea/Balt can be sweet spots for a deal at 21/22 . They will be moving unless a player they have ranked very highly falls to them book it. 

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I seriously doubt that Buffalo has much interest in trading up for Dexter Lawrence.  He's a freak athlete to be sure, but Buffalo's defensive tackle need is definitely shaded toward 3 tech.  Despite Lawrence's 40 time, he's more natural at 1 or 0 tech.  I also doubt that Bosa or Josh Allen are going to drop to a trade accessible range for Buffalo.  Quinnen Williams might possible drop enough for a trade up if Buffalo wants him badly enough.  Given the OP's four suggested possibilities, I'd be most tempted by Sweat and Simmons.  I think Sweat and Tillery is also a possibility.  

 

Obviously, If Buffalo trades up from #9, they won't be trading up again to get in the bottom of round 1.  Last year was unique in my opinion.  

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Certainly possible.

 

But last year was absolutely not an ordinary year. Their main draft goal for 2017 and 2018 both together was to accumulate enough draft capital to trade up for a QB. 

 

But after they'd already picked Allen, they traded up again, people say. Yeah, but they'd gathered so much capital that after Allen they still had yet another 1st, as well as two thirds. So after they traded up for Edmunds, they had taken two guys in the first. So by the end of the third they had made three picks, namely two firsts and a third. After two rounds they had two guys, after three rounds, three, and so it went till the fifth, after which they had six guys.

 

This year they have two fourths and two fifths. (By the way, I wouldn't call what we have a "multitude," myself.) I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them trading one or both of those extras. I don't think they'll be so thrilled about trading away any picks earlier than that.

I think they'd trade a two or three if they can get someone they truly want.

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Posted (edited)

I have heard/read from a number of sources that there are only about 15 players who truly have a first round grade. I don’t pretend to know if this is true or not, but I’ve heard it more than once (and no, I don’t remember where or from whom - no linky for you!). IF that is the case, why give up picks to trade up into the first for a player with a second round grade? Seems like a reach. 

 

Has anyone else heard this about not being nearly 32 first round quality players? I wracking my brain the figure out where I’ve heard/read this. 

 

EDIT: I think one source was on Cowherd, who said he heard it from NFL people. But that’s not the only place. And NO, we do not need a Cowherd is a pompous idiot rant, he was not alone on this. 

 

 

.

Edited by Augie

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Years ago I wouldn’t be happy with a TE at 9. But something to consider is that the TE position in college differs more and more from the NFL, almost on a yearly basis! It’s increasingly more difficult to get an all around TE from the draft. Hock is as close as it gets.

Still, I’m not saying that we have to draft Hock. IMO we need to get a big impact player almost every time you draft in the top ten whether we stay at 9 or spend draft capital to move up some! 

 

Something else that that has me thinking about this particular draft is that we may not pick this high again for a decade or more. At least not very often. As long as Josh continues to improve into what we all hope for! I tend to be conservative but this year if there is a really good player still on the board at 4-7. Go get him!! In the Super Bowl years we had great players all over the field! Kelly,Bruce, Thomas, Reed, Bennet,Tasker etc.... 

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I think the best possible scenario is to trade back. Get Wilkins. Trade back up and get Burns or Ferguson. And somehow in the 2nd round either AJ Brown, NKeal Harry, or Hakeem Butler have fallen and can trade back into the back end of the 2nd and get one of them. Would have 3 immediate impact players on both sides of the ball. Would still have a shot to get Irv Smith, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, etc. later in the draft. 

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I think the 2 players who are 'cultural fits' for the Bills are Jonah Williams and Christian Wilkins. These 2 players seem to offer the leadership and intangibles that Beane/McDermott want.

 

I think they both offer value in the picks 12 to 21 range. Perhaps a small trade down from 9, get an additional 2nd rounder and trade back into the first. I assume Wilkins will be the first pick. 

 

Both are safe and steady picks but Jonah's best shot to start in my opinion is at RG where he can beat out Long. Potentially there is a 3 player LT competition in camp. 

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Like that you are aware of the options and various scenarios. After you make your pick in the 1st,how does that affect what you do in the 2nd,etc.

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I've been thinking about this scenario a lot and I think it's something Beane will consider given the movement in the past 2 drafts.  The combination of Oliver and Fant excites me the most.  Fant would give us a weapon with size and I feel like he has less question marks than any of the WR's with size available in the late 1st - mid 2nd.  We could also use our 2 4th's to move into the back end of the 3rd if another player we're high on falls, whether it be RB, WR, Oline, or Edge.  With all the free agent additions it would be extremely unlikely for 10 rookies to make the team so why not try and add higher end talent. 

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5 minutes ago, Canuck204 said:

I've been thinking about this scenario a lot and I think it's something Beane will consider given the movement in the past 2 drafts.  The combination of Oliver and Fant excites me the most.  Fant would give us a weapon with size and I feel like he has less question marks than any of the WR's with size available in the late 1st - mid 2nd.  We could also use our 2 4th's to move into the back end of the 3rd if another player we're high on falls, whether it be RB, WR, Oline, or Edge.  With all the free agent additions it would be extremely unlikely for 10 rookies to make the team so why not try and add higher end talent. 

I read somewhere that Fant has had a lot of drops. Is this true /

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Let’s talk OL seeing we have a lot there. 

 

Morse - Contract mocks him In for this year. 

Nsekhe- Contract says makes the team

Dawkins - Not going anywhere but savings if cut 

 

Waddle - Can be cut with a savings 

McDermott - Can be cut at a savings 

Long - Signed this year can be Cut this year at a cap savings 

Bodine - Can be cut at a cap savings. 

Feliceno - Can be cut but. A small cap hit if so 

Ducasse can and will be cut

Spain - can be cut this year at a cap savings

Sirles - Can be cut at savings

Teller - Same

Boetringer - Same 

 

so out out of ALL the OL there really is 2 that cannot be moved on after camp at a savings. 1 that is a wash (Same dead as current hit) 

 

so yeah Keep the picks and add talent. I could do the same for WR as well. 

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Andre Dillard at 9 is a fireable offense.  He's a late 1st, early 2nd round prospect that is NOT worth the 9th pick, or the 11th pick as Joe B thinks in his latest mock.

Charley Casserly calls Dillard “the best pass blocking left tackle in the draft” among other things.

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2 hours ago, custcarcen said:

Charley Casserly calls Dillard “the best pass blocking left tackle in the draft” among other things.

Name for me, please, the last Casserly-endorsed offensive lineman to turn into a franchise left tackle.  I'll be waiting.

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