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2 picks in the first seems like a given to me...


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11 hours ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

I can see it happening as well. We have too many picks and not enough roster spots. 

 

Sneaky suspicion the guy they're targeting is Jerry Tillery.

This is my thought as well. The Bills are said to have scouted ND games heavily this past year. I would suspect the guy they were looking at the most was Tillery. He has proto size and is very disruptive. I could see the Bills going after him. 

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I'm going to bump this because after reading up on the top prospects for the dline my take is that if you dont get the top 3...trade back at it's a deep draft for dline. 

 

Trade back get a TE and DT or edge.  

 

Standing by this...the rest is smokescreen. 

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On 4/8/2019 at 6:43 AM, RyanC883 said:

I also see this happening.  Two scenarios here for me:

 

1.  Someone the Bills want like E. Oliver or another player is there at 9.  In that case, it will take a bevy of picks to make the Bills trade down.  Likley, we pick at 9, and reenter the first to get Hock, another TE, a OL, or Edge player if one falls.   I think this is the most likely, given the talent at some position that will be available at 9. 

 

2.  One of the LB's named Devin is there at 9, and our preferred DL target isn't.  In that case, there are quite a few ILB needy teams behind us who get into a minor bidding war to trade up.  If none of them do, it's not impossible we take Devin White if he is there.  But I see the most likely scenario as a trade down, then taking BPA--hopefully Hock or Faint. 

If White is there we take him. Edmunds or White could both play outside, they are two of the most athletic lbs in years. Wilkins at 15 with an xtra 2nd is my preference.

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On 4/8/2019 at 8:00 AM, Hebert19 said:

Whether Beane trades down or stays put I can see him bundling some picks to move back into the end of the first to nail his 2nd must have.   With the depth on defense in this draft there will still be huge difference makers available late first early second so it will warrant the move.  

 

Preference is trade back get Hock, trade up with the extra second or 3rd and get best DT/edge available.  Draft OT, LB and RB with whatever is left.  We have enough duct tape on this oline to justify grabbing your franchise tackle next year and not this year.  Just my take. 

 

If they want TJ Hock, don't gamble and trade back. He might not even be there at 9. If he is, take him. Don't risk it. .... But if he is not the guy, then yes, roll the dice and see what happens if it is possible to get a second 1st round pick.

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If you are trading back once. Mind as well keep going completely out of the 1st round. If you go past 20 you are picking 2nd round players in the first. 

 

I have 20 round 1 graded players. I have heard there is even less that some places are saying. 

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On 4/8/2019 at 8:06 AM, NewEraBills said:

I can spot the possible trade partner too.  If I'm Beane, I'm working the phone with Baltimore's Eric DeCosta.  The Ravens need the picks.  They do not have a 2nd and they are a prime trade partner to move from pick #22 in the 1st to get that extra 2nd rounder and we'd most likely have to throw in the 3rd as well.  But with 2 Fours, we could still maneuver back into the bottom of round 3.

 

Just to quote myself on this, I think if Ed Oliver is off the board, you trade down and try to pick up an extra 2nd and 3rd.  Take Jonah Williams, Devin Bush, or Brian Burns.  Now with an extra 2nd and 3rd you can trade with Baltimore or Seattle but still have a 2nd and 3rd rd pick.  With that 2nd 1st I'd take N'Keal Harry.  In round 2, do what I can to get Jerry Tillery and in rd 3 take Dawson Knox or the Sternberger, or this may be a good spot to take whatever we didn't take in rd 1 like OL or one of the remaining pass rushers.  The thing is there will be plenty of guys to choose from in every round.  9 days fellas, 9 days.

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I like where we are at 9! At least, we can end up with a big improvement in the trenches or at lb! 9 seems early to take Hock but how long do you wait? He’s the best all around nfl ready TE. Maybe we can get back into the first round but not too much later.

 

Can’t wait!!!

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On 4/8/2019 at 9:49 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t know if the Bills will pick twice in the 1st (but it’s possible). I think that they pick at least 4 times by the end of day 2. I suppose that there’s even a scenario where they pick 5 guys before the end of day 2. They could (hypothetically) trade 9 to the Raiders for 24 & 27. They could then package the 2 4ths to get back into the 3rd. 

 

How about this?

24 - Ferrell

27 - Fant

40 - Simmons

74 - Kelvin Harmon

98 - Tytus Howard

 

This may be wishful thinking but a home run nonetheless. 

 

 

Skinny guys get pushed around in the pros

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Tight ends.  That position can be run by committee with several players with different strong points.  The defense can not respond to every substitution and when they do, they give away something when they play to the new TE's strenghts.   Don't draft high for a guy who is not at a position where he can dominate and doesn't play most of the time.     DT, linebacker OT are the top 3 picks.

 

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On 4/8/2019 at 4:06 PM, NewEraBills said:

I can spot the possible trade partner too.  If I'm Beane, I'm working the phone with Baltimore's Eric DeCosta.  The Ravens need the picks.  They do not have a 2nd and they are a prime trade partner to move from pick #22 in the 1st to get that extra 2nd rounder and we'd most likely have to throw in the 3rd as well.  But with 2 Fours, we could still maneuver back into the bottom of round 3.

By the chart it would take a 4th & 5th along with the 2nd & 3rd to move up from 40 to 22. Btw look out for Sea as a possible trade partner also at 21

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@IgotBILLStopay

 

Igots has mean on this Q. WIlliams trade up thing so much that I can't think about anything else.

 

Stupid attractive draft nuisance enticing Igots.  :D;)

 

Yeah, I would like the above for what it does to our D, especially over the next 4-5 years (Williams, Star, Phillips).

 

However, If it doesn't happen I am a big fan of trading what we need to get two in the top 32.

 

However, I don't necessarily want to trade back and then use some capital to trade back in.  I like the potential pick at 9.  I'd rather have 9 and 20 something rather than teens, 20 something a little extra capital later on.

 

I want those first two picks to just plain start.

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On 4/8/2019 at 8:00 AM, Hebert19 said:

Whether Beane trades down or stays put I can see him bundling some picks to move back into the end of the first to nail his 2nd must have.   With the depth on defense in this draft there will still be huge difference makers available late first early second so it will warrant the move.  

 

 

I try to listen to Beane to understand his strategy, and what you say, although it makes sense to me, contradicts what Beane has said.  What Beane says is when there's depth at a position, you sit tight and wait for some guy (not a particular guy) to come to you, or you trade back and wait for some guy.   So, for example, if there are four d linemen he rates as first round talent, when he's picking at 9 he will be inclined to trade out of 9 to 15 or 18 or so, because there's a good chance one of the four will fall to the later pick.   That way he gets extra value out of the 9 spot.  

 

Looked at from the other direction, he's going to trade up, to get back into the late first round, when he sees one guy, a particular guy, who stands out among all the other guys at his position AND who the BIlls have rated as the BPA at the spot they can trade up to.  

 

The example he gave yesterday, when someone asked, was Edmunds.   There was no one like him left in the draft and the Bills thought he was the BPA, so they traded UP for him.  If there were six middle linebackers, all really good, they wouldn't have traded up, and they might have traded back.  

 

That tells me that if they trade up for D line talent, they think the guy is really special compared to all the other D line talent available.   More likely that if they trade up, they're trading for a position that ISN'T deep in the draft.   

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5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I try to listen to Beane to understand his strategy, and what you say, although it makes sense to me, contradicts what Beane has said.  What Beane says is when there's depth at a position, you sit tight and wait for some guy (not a particular guy) to come to you, or you trade back and wait for some guy.   So, for example, if there are four d linemen he rates as first round talent, when he's picking at 9 he will be inclined to trade out of 9 to 15 or 18 or so, because there's a good chance one of the four will fall to the later pick.   That way he gets extra value out of the 9 spot.  

 

Looked at from the other direction, he's going to trade up, to get back into the late first round, when he sees one guy, a particular guy, who stands out among all the other guys at his position AND who the BIlls have rated as the BPA at the spot they can trade up to.  

 

The example he gave yesterday, when someone asked, was Edmunds.   There was no one like him left in the draft and the Bills thought he was the BPA, so they traded UP for him.  If there were six middle linebackers, all really good, they wouldn't have traded up, and they might have traded back.  

 

That tells me that if they trade up for D line talent, they think the guy is really special compared to all the other D line talent available.   More likely that if they trade up, they're trading for a position that ISN'T deep in the draft.   

 

 

Great analysis, Shaw, as usual.

 

So, in a way I guess we are looking for those guys at a position of need for the Bills in the 20s which talent at that position drops of precipitously after that guy is drafted.

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
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1 hour ago, BillsFan1988 said:

By the chart it would take a 4th & 5th along with the 2nd & 3rd to move up from 40 to 22. Btw look out for Sea as a possible trade partner also at 21

That's why I quoted myself.  Trade back and get the extra 2nd and 3rd so we can recoup for the loss of trading for the extra 1

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