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Reading tea leaves: Bills trade down with NYG or OAK


Estro

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Definitely seems like this could become a game of chicken between Beane and Gettleman.  Quinnen Williams and Oliver are both top 5 talents.  Good chance 1 of them is available at pick 6.  Gettleman trying his hardest to convince everyone he’s not taking a QB at pick 6.  Jags aren’t taking a DL at 7.  Beane might think Williams or Oliver fall to 9 if they get past the Raiders.  

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1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Definitely seems like this could become a game of chicken between Beane and Gettleman.  Quinnen Williams and Oliver are both top 5 talents.  Good chance 1 of them is available at pick 6.  Gettleman trying his hardest to convince everyone he’s not taking a QB at pick 6.  Jags aren’t taking a DL at 7.  Beane might think Williams or Oliver fall to 9 if they get past the Raiders.  

Better to use the lower round to move up the 2nd round pick into the first

 

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27 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

A trade down to 15 or so would be snazzy and take Marquise Brown.

 

I don't think Brown slipping to 40 is out of the question. He's not really someone I want Buffalo to take anyways, but I definitely wouldn't be on board in the top 15.

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16 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I don't think Brown slipping to 40 is out of the question. He's not really someone I want Buffalo to take anyways, but I definitely wouldn't be on board in the top 15.

 

Yeah, but:

j/k...I get the concern with Hollywood. Small, injury issue, name-association drama, etc.  I still think he's going top-20, because in today's NFL, fast and versatile is highly sought after.

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14 hours ago, ExWNYer said:

 

So what you're saying is that when Denver saw they were getting a Chubb, they boned the Bills...

 

Speaking of Denver, I wonder what they would offer the Bills to keep someone else from trading up to #9.  That might allow the Bills to upgrade one of their picks in a later round, maybe a 4th to a 3rd, for instance.  The Bills get the same player they would have taken at 9 and another premium pick and the Broncos get their choice of the QBs on the board at 9 and prevent some other team from coming up in front of them and taking their guy. 

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You can demand these deals. But they don't have to say yes. They could easily say, "OK, thanks, we'll work something out with Cincy at #11 or GB at #12, or whatever."

 

To get these premiums you need a desperate team. Last year we were desperate and everybody knew it. I don't know that a team with Carr on the roster should be as desperate as we were last year.

 

Also worth looking at the Rich Hill chart as well as the traditional Johnson model.

 

#24 - 237

#27 - 216

#35 - 170 

equals   723

 

Bills #9 equals 387

 

Supposedly teams are moving towards the Hill model.

 

Personally, if I'm Oakland I don't make this trade.

 

In any case, I'm not convinced Oakland is going after a QB. I guess they are building around Carr. We'll see. I generally like trading back, a lot. But IMO if Oliver is still there, we snag him.

 

I wouldn't demand anything that's what I will ask for that's what makes moving bk 15 spots worth it to me.  They can say yes or no after that.  But I sure won't just take 24 & 27 and flip them bk #9 & 112 . 

Edited by BillsFan1988
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On 4/7/2019 at 1:02 AM, Estro said:

Less than 3 weeks out from the draft and there's a lot of rumors and smoke, most of which is nonsense, some though truth.

 

And it's my belief that the Bills would like to trade down in this years draft.  Of course they're doing work on a lot of the top 10 guys, as they should, you always have to be prepared to pick a guy at your spot.....but like I said if they had it their way I think they'd love to move down and pick up another premium pick.  This sentiment has been tossed around by a few of the twitter guys I think tend to have good info, Eric Galko being one of them.  That brings me to the 2 teams I think might mesh with the Bills desire to move down:

 

The Raiders and the Giants.

 

I think both teams would love to take a premium non QB player with their top pick, and then use their second 1st round pick as part of a package to move up and get their QB.  The kicker is I don't think either team wants Haskins.....I think it's Daniel Jones and/or Drew Lock that'll be the guy that goes at #9 if the Bills are able to pull off a trade down.  Here's how a potential trade down with both of these teams could look:

 

TRADE w/ Giants: Giants get: #9 & #74 (worth 1570 pts. on the draft trade value chart)

                                 

                                 Bills get: #17, #37 & #95 (1600 pts.)

 

TRADE w/ Raiders: Raiders get: #9 & #112 (1420 pts.)

 

                                  Bills get : #24 & #27 (1420 pts.)

 

I'd love either of these scenarios, as I'm always a fan of trading down.  I think we have a good chance 3 weeks from now!

 

While Bills can and will do better in terms of compensation if these trades happen - your key point that OAK and NYG are potential trade partners is valid. Also hearing Fins, Falcons and Redskins want to move up - so that should only make the returns even better.

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On ‎4‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 2:02 AM, Aussie Joe said:

 

The team moving up into the Top 10 should pay a premium... at least 20 per cent extra in my view but more if there is competition as you have alluded to was the case last year with the Bills..

 

The first issue is though that the Bills need to assess who is there first at 9... I think you take Oliver, if he is there..

 

I also can’t see the Giants passing on QB they like at 6 to move up again to 9 to take him.. take him at 6 then keep your other assets..

 

Raiders could be a chance though as they can take Williams or Allen at  4... then move up and perhaps offload Carr to another team for a pick..

 

If this is the case then the Raiders can hand over 24,27,35 for 9, 74.112.. there is your 20% premium..

 

The Bills are moving a long way down and need to be appropriately incentivised..

 

Whoa!  Yeah, I'd love that trade...

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On 4/7/2019 at 9:33 AM, Dopey said:

I like that you mentioned picks 10-15. So, if Denver gets nervous and calls us, what would it take for us to move down 1 spot? Is a 3rd asking too much? If not a 3rd, how about a 4th and 5th?

I believe to move from 9th to 10th would be worth at least a 3rd this year.  If Denver wants to move up one spot then either they think we may select their guy or that someone else might trade with us.  A third is fair..... but a second is better ?

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2 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Well, he's still his own man. Do you agree with everything your cousin has said?

That's fine and all, but I just don't know that the interest is there. And I know that this staff isn't going to waste time on someone if they aren't all in. We'll see if he gets a pre-draft visit like Metcalf & Harry.

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1 hour ago, Mark92 said:

I believe to move from 9th to 10th would be worth at least a 3rd this year.  If Denver wants to move up one spot then either they think we may select their guy or that someone else might trade with us.  A third is fair..... but a second is better ?

I was thinking Denver would be afraid someone would trade with us more than us taking their guy. I think they want a QB and could be nervous of the Skins trading down with us. I would definitely start with asking for a 2nd as the starting point. That would be a tough pill for them to swallow for 1 spot, but if they have a QB in mind you never know. I'd take a 3rd though.

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1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I was thinking Denver would be afraid someone would trade with us more than us taking their guy. I think they want a QB and could be nervous of the Skins trading down with us. I would definitely start with asking for a 2nd as the starting point. That would be a tough pill for them to swallow for 1 spot, but if they have a QB in mind you never know. I'd take a 3rd though.

This Draft is so interesting to me.  The Bills have a lot of holes but not many "need" positions.  DT and DE are really the only NEED positions and that's because of contracts ending after 2019 and Kyle Williams retirement.  While WR, TE, RB, OT, CB, LB would all be nice to add top talent to.  Litterly the only things Beane could do to upset me at all is to draft a QB or not use a single pick on the DL or OL.  It's wide open.  

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Why would the Giants trade up for a QB when they could just take a QB at pick 6 and not have to worry about a team trading up to 7 or 8 and taking their guy? The Raiders seem to be sticking with Carr not sure who they would want at 9. The more realistic scenario is Washington, Miami, or Cincy trading up for Lock or Haskins to get ahead of Denver sitting at pick 10.

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On 4/7/2019 at 2:02 AM, Estro said:

Less than 3 weeks out from the draft and there's a lot of rumors and smoke, most of which is nonsense, some though truth.

 

And it's my belief that the Bills would like to trade down in this years draft.  Of course they're doing work on a lot of the top 10 guys, as they should, you always have to be prepared to pick a guy at your spot.....but like I said if they had it their way I think they'd love to move down and pick up another premium pick.  This sentiment has been tossed around by a few of the twitter guys I think tend to have good info, Eric Galko being one of them.  That brings me to the 2 teams I think might mesh with the Bills desire to move down:

 

The Raiders and the Giants.

 

I think both teams would love to take a premium non QB player with their top pick, and then use their second 1st round pick as part of a package to move up and get their QB.  The kicker is I don't think either team wants Haskins.....I think it's Daniel Jones and/or Drew Lock that'll be the guy that goes at #9 if the Bills are able to pull off a trade down.  Here's how a potential trade down with both of these teams could look:

 

TRADE w/ Giants: Giants get: #9 & #74 (worth 1570 pts. on the draft trade value chart)

                                 

                                 Bills get: #17, #37 & #95 (1600 pts.)

 

TRADE w/ Raiders: Raiders get: #9 & #112 (1420 pts.)

 

                                  Bills get : #24 & #27 (1420 pts.)

 

I'd love either of these scenarios, as I'm always a fan of trading down.  I think we have a good chance 3 weeks from now!

 

Giants or Raiders wouldn’t bite on that

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