If you had Metcalf/Fant/Hockenson/Jacobs vs the field as our 1st pick, which would you pick?

[WMDman]

The field

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

At 9 they are taking DL. Trade down and they take TE or OT

 

Reasonable.

 

I think Beane would love to trade back for Hockenson and then use the 10+ picks he'd have at his disposal at that point to trade back into the 1st for DL.

[LSHMEAB]

17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Added Metcalf to the poll, which was just 13.22% without him. I'm curious what he adds to that number.

 

He's another offensive weapon, though, and that's where I think we go.

 

And as a guy who just doesn't follow college football, I didn't know the physical freak he really is! 

If you give me 3 to 1 and include Metcalf, I'd consider it. 1/1 and it's still the field all day. I would be shocked if it were Fant/Hock/or Jacobs at NINE. Would not be surprised if Metcalf were the pick, but I also think there's a decent chance he goes top 8. Maybe better than decent. Teams fall in love with measureables.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On ‎4‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 5:11 AM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I could be wrong, but I get the sense TE have one of the highest bust rates. 

 

I just hate the idea of using a first round pick on a guy that would be the worst blocker on the line and one of the worst WRs on the team.  I mean, a good year for a tight end is 600+ yards.  That is like a bad WR2, average WR3.  

 

Why use a first round pick for that production? 

I don't think you are analyzing this correctly.  It's about matchups.

A TE is not asked to block a NT, DT or even a 3-4 DE.  By definition he is blocking an OLB, SS, or at worst a 4-3 DE.  A quality TE will be taller and at least as big and often bigger then the player he is assigned to block.  Still yet, rarely is the TE blocking solo, it is usually a combination block with the OT or a pulling guard.  

With regard to TE in the pass game, it would be great if the TE was so good that an opposing defense played a top CB against him.  That would mean he is an elite pass catcher.  However even the best tightends  rarely draw coverage from any other positions than slot DB's, safeties and linebackers.  That sets up mismatches all over the field.  A third WR is not a mismatch against most nickel DBs.  A great TE is a huge mismatch against a TE, a nickel DB, or a safety based on speed or size or both.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Reasonable.

 

I think Beane would love to trade back for Hockenson and then use the 10+ picks he'd have at his disposal at that point to trade back into the 1st for DL.

I don't know.  I fear McBeane is a fall in love with one guy GM/HC tandem and will waste picks to get a certain player.  Zay, Dawkins, Allen, Edmunds are 4 players chosen requiring 7 picks and two players to draft them.  That is what they collectively have done two years in a row.  Maybe that will change this year.  

As for trading back up in the first, the 10 picks are mostly useless in that regard.  In you scenario they would trade back a few spots and at best get a second round pick.  Well to get back into the first they would either need to give up a #1 next year (not going to happen) or probably give up both number 2's.  In that scenario all you did was move up from early in the second round to late in the first.  All that gets you is a more expensive rookie that is no more likely to pan out.  

This is the year to trade back and get more picks.  There is depth at DL, Edge, TE, and WR.  All positions of need.  OT class is not great.  

The play is trade down a few spots, still get a great pick, and add an additional day 2 pick.  Then package some of the day 3 picks for higher day 3 picks or better yet higher 2020 picks.  Also it would be fine to take a few fliers late in the draft, basketball guy that played TE at a high level in HS, a KR ( Ray Ray is awful), a punter (ours are awful), and a PK (Hausch was average last year and has been up and down his whole career).

[transplantbillsfan]

So I don't know who subscribes to The Athletic, but I stumbled onto this massive draft guide by Dane Brugler he calls "The Beast" because he takes 10 months to put it together after starting in June.

 

He actually ranks the prospects and has pretty detailed descriptions about each one. Here's what he said about Hockenson (and notice where he ranks him):

 

1. T.J. HOCKENSON | Iowa 6046 | 251 lbs. | rSO. Chariton, Iowa (Chariton) 7/3/1997 (age 21.82) #38

BACKGROUND: A three-star tight end recruit out of high school, T.J. Hockenson was a four-year starter at Chariton as a tight end and safety. He was used as more of a wideout than traditional tight end in high school and the offense was centered around his receiving skills, finishing his career with a school-record 238 catches for 
3,560 yards and 49 touchdowns. As a senior, Hockenson posted 85 receptions for 1,219 yards and 17 touchdowns, adding 39 tackles and two interceptions on defense to earn First Team All-State honors for the third straight year. He was also a standout basketball player, scoring 1,890 career points and earning Second Team 
All-State honors twice. Coming from a smaller school, Hockenson wasn’t considered a top-50 tight end recruit, but in-state programs like Iowa State and Northern Iowa offered him quickly. However, once Iowa (his favorite team growing up) offered him prior to his senior year, he became a Hawkeye. After his prolific 2018 
season, Hockenson elected to leave school early and enter the 2019 NFL Draft.

YEAR (GP/GS) REC YDS AVG TD NOTES
2016: Redshirted
2017: (13/12) 24 320 13.3 3
2018: (13/13) 49 760 15.5 6 Second Team All-American; John Mackey Award; Kwalick-Clark Big Ten TE of the Year; First Team All-Big Ten
Total: (26/25) 73 1,080 14.8 9
HT WT ARM HAND WING 40-YD 20-YD 10-YD VJ BJ SS 3C BP
COMBINE 6046 251 32 1/4 09 1/2 77 7/8 4.70 2.75 1.63 37 1/2 10’03” 4.18 7.02 17
PRO DAY N/A (stood on Combine numbers; positional drills only)

STRENGTHS: Above-average athleticism…natural pass-catching abilities with his body control, reflexes and hand-eye coordination…reliable hands…clean releases off the line of scrimmage…sticks his foot in the ground and accelerates off his plant to press defenders off the route…finds the sticks and achieves proper depth in his patterns…legitimate downfield threat (averaged 11.5 yards per target in 2018)…ambitious after the catch, flashing tackle-breaking skills (seven catches of 30-plus yards in 2018)…outstanding finisher as a blocker…latches, runs his feet and drives his target off the screen…competitive appetite and wired right for the pro game…productive and durable career in Iowa City.

WEAKNESSES: Doesn’t have ideal size and bulk for the position…overeager at times as a blocker and can get tossed when he arrives off-balance…bad habit of ducking his head into initial contact…tends to rush his routes at times and needs to better set up sitting defenders.

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Iowa, Hockenson paired with Noah Fant to form the best tight end duo in college football, lining up inline and slot in the Hawkeyes’ pro-style scheme. He became the second tight end in school history with 750-plus receiving yards in a season and joined Dallas Clark as the only Hawkeyes to win the Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end. Despite not blocking in high school, Hockenson has developed into an elite blocker with the functional strength and competitive spirit to physically overwhelm defenders at the point of attack. Although he would benefit from added nuance as a route runner, his basketball background is obvious with the agility and catch radius to be an impact weapon downfield. Overall, Hockenson has a complete skill set for the position with 
outstanding athleticism, pass-catching traits and blocking skills, projecting as an immediate NFL starter with Pro Bowl potential.

GRADE: 1st Round (#6 overall)

[BillsfaninSB]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

So I don't know who subscribes to The Athletic, but I stumbled onto this massive draft guide by Dane Brugler he calls "The Beast" because he takes 10 months to put it together after starting in June.

 

He actually ranks the prospects and has pretty detailed descriptions about each one. Here's what he said about Hockenson (and notice where he ranks him).

GRADE: 1st Round (#6 overall)

 

Those who think we could trade back several spots and land Hock are crazy.  He might not even be there at 9. 

[CSBill]

On 4/6/2019 at 7:19 AM, formerlyofCtown said:

Should have addressed it in FA.?

 

Didn't they?

2 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

 

Those who think we could trade back several spots and land Hock are crazy.  He might not even be there at 9. 

 

Agreed, if he is available at 9, draft him!

[formerlyofCtown]

6 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

Didn't they?

 

Agreed, if he is available at 9, draft him!

Its called sarcasm.

[transplantbillsfan]

Jeremiah had us with Fant before.... now...

 

9

T.J. Hockenson - TE

 

School: Iowa | Year: Sophomore (RS) 

Hockenson would quickly emerge as the best friend of Josh Allen and LeSean McCoy. He helps in both the passing and running game.

[Bangarang]

9 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

 

Those who think we could trade back several spots and land Hock are crazy.  He might not even be there at 9. 

 

I’d say the idea of him going before 9 is even more crazy

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

I’d say the idea of him going before 9 is even more crazy

 

Do you feel that way because of the historic value of the Tight End position in the draft or because of Hockenson specifically?

[Bangarang]

17 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Do you feel that way because of the historic value of the Tight End position in the draft or because of Hockenson specifically?

 

Both. I think Hockenson is a nice player. I don’t think he’s game changing nice and that’s what I’m looking for with a top 10 pick. If we traded back and got him then I wouldn’t have an issue.

 

If I’m taking a TE in the top 10 then I want one that will take over games catching the ball. It seems like the first thing people like to talk about when it comes to him is his blocking ability. 

[Bray Wyatt]

53 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Both. I think Hockenson is a nice player. I don’t think he’s game changing nice and that’s what I’m looking for with a top 10 pick. If we traded back and got him then I wouldn’t have an issue.

 

If I’m taking a TE in the top 10 then I want one that will take over games catching the ball. It seems like the first thing people like to talk about when it comes to him is his blocking ability. 

 

Agree 100%

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

Both. I think Hockenson is a nice player. I don’t think he’s game changing nice and that’s what I’m looking for with a top 10 pick. If we traded back and got him then I wouldn’t have an issue.

 

If I’m taking a TE in the top 10 then I want one that will take over games catching the ball. It seems like the first thing people like to talk about when it comes to him is his blocking ability. 

 

To quote Beane from his Presser just the other day

 

"Well, Tight End is kind of a 3 part player, what does he bring as a run blocker, what does he do as a pass blocker, and then what does he do in the passing game, and so as we go through these Tight Ends, those are the areas we focus on."

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

To quote Beane from his Presser just the other day

 

"Well, Tight End is kind of a 3 part player, what does he bring as a run blocker, what does he do as a pass blocker, and then what does he do in the passing game, and so as we go through these Tight Ends, those are the areas we focus on."

 

What should I do with this information?

[transplantbillsfan]

27 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

What should I do with this information?

 

Nothing if you don't want to.

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Nothing if you don't want to.

 

I’m just confused as to what you are inferring from that quote. I’m sure every GM and scout looks at TEs in the same way. 

[transplantbillsfan]

34 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I’m just confused as to what you are inferring from that quote. I’m sure every GM and scout looks at TEs in the same way. 

 

You said it seems the first thing people talk about with Hockenson is his blocking ability.

 

The first thing--actually the first 2 things--Beane talked about when talking Tight Ends in general was blocking ability.

 

Like I said, take nothing from that if you don't want to. Might be pure coincidence.

 

As for his pass-catching, from the little I've seen (because I don't give a crap about College Football til the NFL offseason), he seems like a fairly sure-handed hands-catcher.

 

In terms of so many things, he resembles Gronk and Kelce. Would you take a Gronk or Kelce with the 9th overall pick?

Edited April 17, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[Bangarang]

13 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You said it seems the first thing people talk about with Hockenson is his blocking ability.

 

The first thing--actually the first 2 things--Beane talked about when talking Tight Ends in general was blocking ability.

 

Like I said, take nothing from that if you don't want to. Might be pure coincidence.

 

As for his pass-catching, from the little I've seen (because I don't give a crap about College Football til the NFL offseason), he seems like a fairly sure-handed hands-catcher.

 

In terms of so many things, he resembles Gronk and Kelce. Would you take a Gronk or Kelce with the 9th overall pick?

 

Hockenson is a popular prediction for us so when BB talks about TEs who can block I can see why it would be easy to connect those dots.

 

I try not to play the hypothetical game. Obviously you’d be crazy to pass on a game changing TE like that at 9. Unfortunately nobody can guarantee that’s how his career turns out.