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Draft Strategy: McBeane Absolutely Must Draft Around the Offense this Year


Ronin

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14 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I'd say two sentences, but yeah, that pretty much sums up forum mentalities perfectly.  :) 

 

Nicely done!  

 

Of course then you have the same people complaining that you didn't substantiate your position.  You can't make that stuff up.  

I dunno. You’re pretty good at makin’ stuff up.

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26 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I thought I explained that in the first sentence.  

 

[This is a long read, so most you should simply ignore it. A handful will appreciate it if not enjoy it.  You know who you are.] 

 

Hmmm, why am I shocked and stunned, NOT, that so many people what, ignored it, can't comprehend it, agree with it but for some inexplicable reason are impelled to comment on it, etc.?  LOL  

 

Great study in human nature and particularly forum behavior.  

 

It's good humor tho.  As I said, part of my intent in posting it was to increase my ignore list tremendously.  This makes that task simple.  ;) 

 

Well, we'll find out this season if it was bombastic, won't we.  ;)

 

 

Thanks for reading it! 

 

Great pic BTW!!  LOL  Love it!  

 

You're intelligent, right?  Is that what I said?  

It's really inexplicable to you that some people would actually comment on a post written here?  Really?  Just because you told us how to deal with your post doesn't mean we must do it that way, we have free will. Sorry

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17 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Someone did above

 

My response - they're in the Offense stage of the building plan. They will be getting offensive guys in the draft, but it's not their primary focus because getting the best football player at their pick is the main focus.

 

They believe in Josh Allen.

 

It's really that simple.

 

Actually, it isn't that simple.  

 

Belief is one thing, results are another.  

 

As of now what we essentially have in Allen is a QB that had good passing games against Miami's 27th ranked D, little else.  In fact, here are the gamelogs otherwise, let me know which ones you think are average much less better-than-average?  

 

  Cmp Att % Yards TD INT
  18 33 54.6 245 1 2
  18 33 54.6 231 2 2
  17 26 65.4 224 3 1
  20 41 48.8 217 1 2
  18 36 50.0 206 0 2
  13 26 50.0 204 1 0
  15 22 68.2 196 1 0
  8 19 42.1 160 1 0
  16 33 48.5 151 0 2
  10 17 58.8 84 0 0
  10 19 52.6 82 0 1
  6 15 40.0 74 0 0
             
Total 169 320 52.8% 2,074 10.0 12.0
             
Per-Game Avg. -Miami 13 26 51.3% 162 0.5 0.9
             
Per-Game Avg. All Games 14 27 52.8% 173 0.8 1.0

 

Am I missing visions of greatness here or something?  Seems to me a mountain of a hill to climb.  Where am I off?  

 

To add some perspective, here are Rosen's passing numbers: 

 

  Cmp Att % Yards TD INT
  4 7 57.1 36 0 1
  15 27 55.6 180 1 0
  10 25 40.0 170 1 0
  21 31 67.7 240 0 1
  21 39 53.9 194 1 3
  23 40 57.5 252 2 1
  22 39 56.4 208 1 2
  9 20 45.0 136 3 2
  12 19 63.2 105 1 1
  11 26 42.3 149 0 0
  26 41 63.4 240 0 1
  13 22 59.1 132 0 2
  12 23 52.2 87 0 0
  18 34 52.9 149 1 0
             
  217 393 55.2% 2278 11 14
             
Per-Game Avg.  16 28 55.2% 163 0.8 1.0

 

Again, here are the per-game averages:  

 

Per-Game Avg. -Miami 13 26 51.3% 162 0.5 0.9
             
Per-Game Avg. All Games 14 27 52.8% 173 0.8 1.0
             
Rosen's Per-Game Avg.  16 28 55.2% 163 0.8 1.0

 

If you ask me, anyone that isn't concerned isn't paying attention.  ... unless of course we can play Miami 16 times.  Then we're all set.  

 

And to be frank, only that second Miami game, the emotionally charged one where Miami seemed to not even show up on top of sucking generally speaking, the other game wasn't even great, just good.  

 

Either way, which of the non-Miami games do you think were good and something to be encouraged by looking forward in the passing department?  

 

Otherwise, I thought all that mattered was wins, no?  

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51 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

If Ed Oliver is there sprint to the podium.

 

And actually, reading the OP my conclusion was "darn we need to draft a Quarterback". Which I am not entirely sure wasn't the true message he was trying to convey.

 

Yep and yep.

 

The entire crux of the post misses the mark when it comes to a successful draft philosophy. Sure, prioritize QB above all else. Aside from that, draft for value.

 

Vis a vis: player grade x positional value weight = draft grade.

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17 hours ago, Virgil said:

We’ve already changed our at least 6 of the 11 starters. How is that not focusing on it?

 

Changed?  LOL 

 

Well, OK, we should be all set then, right?  

 

Allen on to greatness.  :)  

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1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Actually, it isn't that simple.  

 

Belief is one thing, results are another.  

 

As of now what we essentially have in Allen is a QB that had good passing games against Miami's 27th ranked D, little else.  In fact, here are the gamelogs otherwise, let me know which ones you think are average much less better-than-average?  

 

  Cmp Att % Yards TD INT
  18 33 54.6 245 1 2
  18 33 54.6 231 2 2
  17 26 65.4 224 3 1
  20 41 48.8 217 1 2
  18 36 50.0 206 0 2
  13 26 50.0 204 1 0
  15 22 68.2 196 1 0
  8 19 42.1 160 1 0
  16 33 48.5 151 0 2
  10 17 58.8 84 0 0
  10 19 52.6 82 0 1
  6 15 40.0 74 0 0
             
Total 169 320 52.8% 2,074 10.0 12.0
             
Per-Game Avg. -Miami 13 26 51.3% 162 0.5 0.9
             
Per-Game Avg. All Games 14 27 52.8% 173 0.8 1.0

 

Am I missing visions of greatness here or something?  Seems to me a mountain of a hill to climb.  Where am I off?  

 

To add some perspective, here are Rosen's passing numbers: 

 

  Cmp Att % Yards TD INT
  4 7 57.1 36 0 1
  15 27 55.6 180 1 0
  10 25 40.0 170 1 0
  21 31 67.7 240 0 1
  21 39 53.9 194 1 3
  23 40 57.5 252 2 1
  22 39 56.4 208 1 2
  9 20 45.0 136 3 2
  12 19 63.2 105 1 1
  11 26 42.3 149 0 0
  26 41 63.4 240 0 1
  13 22 59.1 132 0 2
  12 23 52.2 87 0 0
  18 34 52.9 149 1 0
             
  217 393 55.2% 2278 11 14
             
Per-Game Avg.  16 28 55.2% 163 0.8 1.0

 

Again, here are the per-game averages:  

 

Per-Game Avg. -Miami 13 26 51.3% 162 0.5 0.9
             
Per-Game Avg. All Games 14 27 52.8% 173 0.8 1.0
             
Rosen's Per-Game Avg.  16 28 55.2% 163 0.8 1.0

 

If you ask me, anyone that isn't concerned isn't paying attention.  ... unless of course we can play Miami 16 times.  Then we're all set.  

 

And to be frank, only that second Miami game, the emotionally charged one where Miami seemed to not even show up on top of sucking generally speaking, the other game wasn't even great, just good.  

 

Either way, which of the non-Miami games do you think were good and something to be encouraged by looking forward in the passing department?  

 

Otherwise, I thought all that mattered was wins, no?  

 

So he looked like a rookie?

 

Shocking.

 

Compare his rookie season to those of Goff and Trubisky.

 

Skepticism is fine (and warranted for that matter); concern is, at this point, misplaced.

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17 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Draft strategy in 3 steps:

 

1. Evaluate and list the the best cultural, scheme and athletic fits

2. Value where/when they should be drafted 

3. draft the best guy available when it’s your turn while staying alert to move up or down to get good value 

 

its that simple. 

 

Where's drafting to where you are as a team in there?  

 

That strategy makes perfect sense if you're a playoff team.  Otherwise it ignores a whole bunch of stuff.  

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58 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Like I plainly stated, repeatedly, if Allen doesn't make leaps and bounds in progress we're looking at a new HC and GM.  So much for Allen then.  

 

No one wants to see that.  Defense ain't going to correct that.  

 

This is going to be a very telling and interesting season and an epiphany for a lot of people if you ask me.  

 

No, there aren't a lot of you around.

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1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So he looked like a rookie?

 

Shocking.

 

Compare his rookie season to those of Goff and Trubisky.

 

Skepticism is fine (and warranted for that matter); concern is, at this point, misplaced.

 

They also look worse than Manuel, worse than Lamar Jackson, about the same as Bortles, worse than Bridgewater, about the same as Tannehill, worse than Tebow, much worse than Mariota, and not much better than Kizer, with the primary difference there being simply INTs although with comparable INT%s,  Kizer 4.6%, Allen 3.8%, both bottom-dwelling.  

 

So yeah, I see no reason why there would be any concern.  LOL  

 

I mean seriously, who accepts only a few positive exceptions when making an argument but ignores a sea of areas of concern?    

 

Scratch that, I momentarily forgot where I am.  ;)

 

9 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Be grateful I didn’t delete it as a mercy killing.

 

LOL  

 

Yeah, thanks.  

 

Seriously tho, ease up a little as a mod, eh.  You should be setting an example, not contributing to flaming. 

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3 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

They also look worse than Manuel, worse than Lamar Jackson, about the same as Bortles, worse than Bridgewater, about the same as Tannehill, worse than Tebow, much worse than Mariota, and not much better than Kizer, with the primary difference there being simply INTs although with comparable INT%s,  Kizer 4.6%, Allen 3.8%, both bottom-dwelling.  

 

So yeah, I see no reason why there would be any concern.  LOL  

 

I mean seriously, who accepts only a few positive exceptions when making an argument but ignores a sea of areas of concern?    

 

Scratch that, I momentarily forgot where I am.  ;)

 

 

LOL  

 

Yeah, thanks.  

 

Seriously tho, ease up a little as a mod, eh.  You should be setting an example, not contributing to flaming. 

Looked worse than Lamar Jackson?  Did you watch any of his games?  Do you know how simple the gameplan was for him?  It's not even an apples to oranges comparison

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2 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

They also look worse than Manuel, worse than Lamar Jackson, about the same as Bortles, worse than Bridgewater, about the same as Tannehill, worse than Tebow, much worse than Mariota, and not much better than Kizer, with the primary difference there being simply INTs although with comparable INT%s,  Kizer 4.6%, Allen 3.8%, both bottom-dwelling.  

 

So yeah, I see no reason why there would be any concern.  LOL  

 

I mean seriously, who accepts only a few positive exceptions when making an argument but ignores a sea of areas of concern?    

 

Scratch that, I momentarily forgot where I am.  ;)

 

 

I'm not surprised by this useless, horrendous mis-characterization of my point.

 

I already thoroughly debunked that asinine Kizer comparison a few months back, so I'm not going to bother at it again.  It was dumb then, and it's still a dumb comparison now.

 

If you didn't see an improvement from the kid when he came back from his injury then you weren't looking, and--again--I'm not surprised.

 

Like @GunnerBill said, that unmitigated expulsion of verbal diarrhea was all centered around your main thesis that Allen is doomed.

 

Some of us tried to make it about the actual thread title, but I noticed that my post to you about the de facto draft strategy got no response...odd, isn't it?

 

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4 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Where's drafting to where you are as a team in there?  

 

That strategy makes perfect sense if you're a playoff team.  Otherwise it ignores a whole bunch of stuff.  

 

Last seasons record only dictates where you pick. 

 

As it should be.

 

If you’re in a spot where the BPA isn’t a guy you want, try to move back and maximize pick value. 

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17 hours ago, Haplo848 said:

Here's what he did wrong:

 

He took the entire season as a whole, without looking at the progress made.  He ignored that Allen got better as the season went on, as he got more experience and the game started to slow down for him. 

 

Appreciate the feedback, but this is part of yet another false narrative.  Namely that Allen improved.  

 

To start, using that week 17 game against Miami, which was literally half of his Red Zone production for the entire season, is poor form.  Short of it being an immensely emotionally charged game due to Kyle's retirement, and the fact that Miami came in as flat as they'd been all season, not to mention that they sucked, particularly on D where they are rated 27th in scoring D and 29th in yardage D, it's not a good baseline for steady-state play.  

 

But moving on to your statement, in the three games prior to that here are his totals: 

 

51 of 103 (49.5%) for 627 Yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, and a rating of 59.  59.  

 

That's what improvement looks like?    That completion % is worse than his season average and over 4 points worse than it was in his first 6 games.  Still think that's improvement?  

 

These unchallenged narratives are ridiculous.  That last Miami game was literally nearly half of his TD production over the last five games.  So unless that single game is the evidence of this improvement, that's a false narrative.  

 

Glad that you brought that up tho, it's relevant.  

 

17 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

Yes. For those who are unaware of Taskers Ghost, he is one of the more consistently derisive posters on the Board. More importantly, his accuracy level is in the low teens %. Take him with a few grains of salt, or better yet, don’t.

 

LOL  

 

You're a mod, dang.  Talk about flaming.  

17 hours ago, eball said:

Who comes to this message board to read a tome?

 

Hence the start of my post which stated as much, right?  

 

Seems to me what's far odder is that people can't seem to take the given advice, ignore the post, not waste THEIR OWN TIME, and move on to something more agreeable for them.  

 

Sounds like emotional instability the fact that people such as yourself merely come to criticize the very thing that was courteously warned about.  

 

Wouldn't you say eball.  

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15 hours ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Nope - a bit shorter, but not reading this one either.

 

And anyone should care about this why now?  :) 

 

Just curious.  

15 hours ago, mcdamit said:

i may be in the minority but i think the defense needs a couple of more above average players to stay in the top 5.  Kyle may have lost a little but still was on the field for 65 percent of the snaps.  They have not addressed this .   I bet they take defense 2 of the first three picks.   

 

They do need DL help, IMO badly, but the D wasn't horrendous last season. 

 

The point being that it's all going to be moot if Allen doesn't work out.  If McD can't get him to at least average NFL levels this season, not even franchise status, the problems are going to start coming fast and furious.  

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sAnd now it is a full blown anti-Allen rant. Which is what it read like from the start to me.

14 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Appreciate the feedback, but this is part of yet another false narrative.  Namely that Allen improved.  

 

To start, using that week 17 game against Miami, which was literally half of his Red Zone production for the entire season, is poor form.  Short of it being an immensely emotionally charged game due to Kyle's retirement, and the fact that Miami came in as flat as they'd been all season, not to mention that they sucked, particularly on D where they are rated 27th in scoring D and 29th in yardage D, it's not a good baseline for steady-state play.  

 

Improvement isn't always linear. Allen was up and down all year, but the second half of his season was still noticeably better than his first - whether you look at numbers or eye test.

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13 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

The focus on the short game bit ignoring Beasley was frustrating. Also there was a weird part of John Brown is only a deep option but he doesnt have a lot of TDs over 30 yards or something. Surprised he didn’t fit the silly Allen had the longest time to throw of anyone in the league in there. 

 

Yeah, it's too bad that's not what it said tho.  ;) 

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12 hours ago, the skycap said:

I still think that, if he's there, they will draft DK Metcalf to help Josh Allen and the offense. I posted an analysis of him on the DK breakdown thread done by the Draft Network. The analyst says "he's an accuracy fixer" and that he's at Deandre Hopkins level on 50/50 balls. Says he's a red zone threat already and his drops are over exaggerated

 

That assumes that Allen's issues are his deep game, right?  Metcalf is a deep WR, he averaged 22 ypr at Miss this season.  

 

As I stated, there's no eviidence that Allen's issues, whether related to himself or the team, are his deep game. 

 

So how would getting another deep WR, on top of Brown who everyone claims is a deep-threat, and Foster who averaged 18.5 YPR if I recall correctly over Allen's last 6 games after his return, and the only receiver to have done better with Allen than without, help Allen then?  

11 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I think that young talent is needed on offense more so than defense.  That will be weighted into account when they put their board together. The draft could fall so many ways.  If they get 3 ace defenders with their top 3 picks.  I wouldn't love it but I think they have enough to win with a dominant defense.  

 

Again, if they can't get Allen playing at least average ball this season from a passing standpoint, they're not going to be around to see the end of whatever their rebuild plan is.  

 

Their careers in Buffalo are inescapably tied to how well Allen performs at this point.   A great D isn't going to change that. 

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