Jump to content

Draft Strategy: McBeane Absolutely Must Draft Around the Offense this Year


Ronin

Recommended Posts

[This is a long read, so most you should simply ignore it. A handful will appreciate it if not enjoy it.  You know who you are.] 

 

So what do the Bills do in the Draft, in particular in the first three rounds where they’re the likeliest to land starters for the immediate season? 

 

There are several schools of thought here. 

 

First is that the defense needs to be addressed in the 1st-round.  The narrative is that the Bills had the 2nd-ranked defense, true, however in yardage D only.  In scoring D we ranked 18th and in Red Zone D we ranked 30th according to NFL.com’s Next-Gen Stats.  Other positives related to the defense include a 2nd ranking in Net Yards per Pass, 7th in INTs, 7th in Opposing Drives Resulting in Scores, 10th in Yards-per-Carry Against, 8th in Turnover Generation, 3rd in Yards-per-Play against, a 1st-Ranking in Stuffed Running Plays, among others. 

 

Raising eyebrows are a 15th ranking in TD% allowed, a 26th ranking in Sacks generated, particularly considering that over half of the team’s 36 sacks, 18.5, were logged by Lorax, Hughes, and Kyle, Kyle now retired with the other two in their back-nine and Lorax likely in his last season, a 24th rank in “2nd-Level Yards” according to ProFootball Outsiders, and a 13th rank in Open Field Yards.  

 

The big concern there is the lack of youthful proven pass-rushers.  There was some ill-placed hope that Lawson in his third season would blossom but that never materialized as such.  He and Murphy were useful in that regard but hardly dominant with both players presenting about average with little basis for further hope.  Players like that are typically depth players on playoff competitive teams. 

 

Here is the issue for McBeane, they have now inextricably hitched the wagon for their success to Allen.  As such they need to elevate the play of the offense, and Allen in particular, to at least average levels this season.  Failure to do so will begin the onslaught of criticism that will simply make their jobs more difficult, and frankly, if in their third season they can’t generate at least an average offense, including an average passing game/QB, then it certainly becomes questionable, at minimum, as to whether or not they know what they’re doing. 

 

So how do they elevate an offense that was ranked …

 

30th in Points Scored, ahead of only Jacksonville and Arizona;

30th in Yardage Offense ahead of only Miami and Arizona;

31st in Yards-per-Play ahead of only Arizona;

30th in Red Zone production;

30th in Team Turnovers lost ahead of only Tampa and San Fran and which included a rate of turnovers by Allen of over 1/game; 

27th in 1st-down generation;

31st in Net Yards-per-Attempt ahead of only Arizona;

25th in Rushing Yards-per-Carry, Dead Last by a statistical country mile w/o Allen’s rushing contribution; 

29th in Turnover %;

30th in Offensive Drives Resulting in Offensive Scores;

31st in Passing Yards ahead of only Arizona;

32nd in Passing TDs;

31st in Passing 1st-Downs ahead of only Arizona.

 

These things all rest in the fact that the team was ranked perfectly average in Time-of-Possession and Plays run from Scrimmage, which bodes poorly.  In short, they had the ball for an average amount of time and for an average number of possessions, but as can be seen, produced all but bottom-dwelling results. 

 

McBeane are not in a position to be able to play-for-one-season only, they must build for the future.  The defense has a number of players that should be an integral part of the future, Edmunds, Milano, White, Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, and Neal.  While secondary-heavy there is talent there. 

 

Where there is no talent despite a narrative that blares out “winning the offseason” again, the fact is that there is no known RB on the roster for the future.  There is no proven dominant WR on the team for the future.  There are hopefuls in Foster, Brown, Beasley, and for some in clinging to Jones, but hardly anything proven.  Of those four, Cinderella hopeful Foster is arguably the best prospect for attaining such a status.  He will be faced with tougher coverages this season however as such given that he may be considered the team’s #1 WR.  Either way he has much to prove.  Allen favored him upon his return from injury when Foster produced at a 16-game rate of 58 catches for 1,084 Yards and 8 TDs on a YPR of 18.5 and a Catch% of a solid 71.0%.  If he can produce that this coming season it would be quite good.  He was approximately a third of Allen's passing yardage and TDs in those last 8 games. 

 

McCoy did far less on average than he has in the past under Allen.  His biggest and only notable receiving game was with Anderson under center.  Croom played approximately the same all season despite who was under center.  Benjamin averaged 2.5 catches and 39 yards w/o Allen and 1.3 catches for 20 yards under Allen.  Jones averaged 5.25 catches for 48 YPG w/o Allen and 3 catches for 38 YPG w/ Allen.  Ivory averaged 2.3 catches for 18 yards w/o Allen and 1/2 a catch for 12 yards with Allen.  

 

Given that Foster and his 18.5 YPR were Allen's favorite target, there is no debate that Allen's preference is the deep ball and it fits the narrative as well.  

 

Otherwise, of the four primary WRs, in 15 combined seasons of play the best single-season receiving yardage totals are 1,003 by Brown and 833 by Beasley.  Next best 715 and otherwise no seasons over 700 yards. 

 

Of the same four the average per-player TD production per-season is 3.8.  By player it is Brown 4.4;    Beasley 3.3,     Foster 3,      Jones 4.5.   None of those rise to the status of average for starting WRs much less above-average.  62 players last season had 5 or more receiving TDs last season.  21 had more than 1,003 receiving yards, Brown's best season and 32 had more than 833 yards, Beasley's best season.  51 had over 700 receiving yards.  Perfectly average among the 64 (2/team) leading receivers was approximately 68 catches for 780 yards and 6 TDs.  

 

Among them in 216 games they have a mere combined 11 100-Yard games;  Brown (6 in 5 seasons), Foster (3 last season), Beasley (2 in 7 seasons), Jones (0 in 2 seasons). 

 

There is no TE for the future on the roster. 

 

The outlook on the Offensive Line depends upon whether one is of the rainbows, unicorns, & lollipops persuasion or whether one considers the realities that the OL-men signed are very much of the on-or-about average variety and frankly, not significantly better than what was in inventory.  The one that figures to make the greatest impact, yet not without significant risks, is Morse at C. 

 

Morse is known for his pass-blocking but equally known for not being a good run-blocker, so there’s that.  Otherwise the biggest risk associated with him is that he’s played in just over half of his games the past two seasons due to injury.  The Bills could not afford to lose him during the season.  In another point-of-note, offensive linemen free agents that have gone on from KC have a reputation for underachievement subsequent to that. 

 

Otherwise, Feliciano has largely been a backup on a bad Oakland team; 

 

With 16 starts in 5 seasons Nsecke has largely been a depth player also on a poor offensive team;

 

Waddle was a depth OL-man for the Patriots; 

 

Long, the only lineman signed with significant experience gets a “below-average” rating from Pro Football Focus, which I’ll defer to since no doubt unlike other forum members I haven’t spent much time watching Long play in Washington, a poor offensive team, in order to confirm his future greatness in Buffalo. 

 

Apparently Ryan Groy is apparently no longer for the team, a lineman that received comparable fanfare as the above mentioned upon his arrival in Buffalo. 

 

Since it does not appear to be obvious what their plan is other than having put all of their eggs in Allen’s basket, and for whatever their plan is notwithstanding, their top priority should be seeing to it to ensure that Allen’s play rises to at least an average level as NFL starters go this forthcoming season.  If they cannot do that then the cries of “project” (at best) will appropriately arise, thereby not doing them any favors going forward.  No fan wants to see that.  

 

In addressing that the questions at hand are to what extent the offensive problems were related to Allen and to what extent were they related to the rest of the offense, ranging from talent on offense otherwise, play-calling, etc.  It is beyond clear however that the play of the offense can essentially only improve. 

 

The rainbows, unicorns, and lollipop contingent will insist that few if any of the offensive problems are on Allen and that Allen with even average talent, which is the best that he’ll have this season if all goes as planned at this point in time, he will arise to the aforementioned status and even more, presumably to franchise status. 

 

Others realize that a good chunk of the offense’s woes are in fact attributable to Allen.  There is no need to belabor that although that’s what will happen in this thread.  It is one or the other, there is no debate.  It should be obvious to a blind man that the biggest gains in terms of rendering this team competitive at the ultimate levels will come from improving the offense, not the defense at this point in time. 

 

But again, if McBeane fail to make those strides on offense and starting with Allen, which is where it will have to begin, and for whatever the reasons actually are and being irrelevant for purposes of their status, then they will not be long for this team.  If that happens then the team enters the lease-extensions years in a state that would only lead to despair.   Allen is arguably the team's biggest draftee since Kelly.  

 

Having said that, the priority must be getting Allen up to the status of above-average immediately, and thereafter to franchise status.  That will not happen if the team expends day 1 & 2 draft resources on defense. 

 

Without getting into details, it can strongly be suggested that a good chunk of the offense’s problems fall back onto Allen’s passing game, more specifically the mental part of the game, which is tremendously difficult to coach up.  This was tried for one simple issue in Bledsoe, namely his getting rid of the ball quickly, using timers, buzzers, etc., and yet it failed miserably, and Bledsoe was a very seasoned and experienced QB by then with a much more impressive collegiate resume and comparably strong-arm.  

 

It stands to reason that the team, McBeane, would go out of their way to protect Allen to every extent possible even if it were possible to install “over-protection” in order to give Allen all the time that he can possibly get in order to process information, aka read the D both pre and post snap. 

 

Adding deep-threat WRs is not going to help the problem, it merely feeds it.  Allen looks deep primarily.  His issues lie within the short-medium game.  This explains Allen’s 8th ranking in Yards-per-Completion contrasted with his 32nd (of 33) ranking in Adj. Yards-per-Attempt, Net Yards-per-Attempt, and Adj Net Yards-per-Attempt.  It is the only explanation.  It also explains perhaps in a cart/horse manner his low completion percentage or visa versa. 

 

While perhaps room for improvement, Allen’s deep game is hardly the thing that needs the greatest improvement.  Everyone knows that he can heave the ball from OBD to Cleveland.  The fact that Foster excelled under Allen with an 18.5 YPR avg. with the other receivers underperforming not only their career/season averages but also putting up better numbers without Allen is evidence of that.  The greatest improvement needs to come from finding the open man regardless of where he is on the field.  Allen is young, but the problem for him is that he has never had to resort to good reading of defenses in order to excel.  His physical prowess has allowed him to be a men among boys in high school football and to a certain extent in a non-Power-5 conference in college.  Case in point, he could not even come close to doing so in the three collegiate games he had against Power-5 competition, to the extent that in those games he played worse than undrafted QBs did against Power-5 competition.  He had the worst record of performance against Power-5 competition of any draft eligible QB in 2018 with 1 TD, 8 INTs and several more lost fumbles in those three games averaging 142 passing yards and posting a pathetic 23 rushes for 22 yards rushing in those three games, evidence of precisely that.  That’s saying something, something which should not be ignored if progress is to be made.  He took the league by surprise last season, he will not have that element of surprise this season.  

 

Athleticism, scrambling, rushing, and heaving deep have not been enormous issues for him, although one could argue that they were for the team overall given that what have been issues for him have been efficient and consistent passing from the pocket, where he has never excelled.  The problem therein is that this is a team sport, not a one-man wrecking crew sport.  Efficiency, competence, and particularly consistency involve using all aspects and elements of an offense.  This was not done by Allen last season which is where the work lies.  

 

How to correct this?  How to correct it indeed.  The things that will not correct it insofar as the Draft is concerned are drafting defense, obviously, or drafting deep WRs since those will not address correction of the problem.  Besides, if John Brown is all that, despite having caught only three TD passes in his career of 5 seasons of longer than 33 yards, which is the existing narrative, then Allen has all the deep threat he needs between Foster and Brown. 

 

Allen will need time.  Time to correct and improve his defense reading skills and ability to find the open receivers wherever they may be on the field.  The only thing that is going to help that is protection.  For the rainbows, unicorns, and lollipop contingent that problem has been solved.  For everyone else rooted in reality much work can still be done and must be done if Allen is to take those critical steps.  He already faces an uphill battle in terms of correcting those as few if any QBs having come into the league without the ability to effectively read a defense have gone on to amount to much, much less to franchise status. 

 

If McBeane do not draft to that strategy then they are toying with and risking their own careers and therefore the health and welfare of the team.  Regardless of what this team does this and next season, if Allen pans then McBeane cannot be long for the team given the resources they gave up for, remember, “their guy.”  This is a marriage, he is “their guy,” they have insisted it be so.  As such they will ultimately be graded upon whether or not “their guy” works out.  Drafting to not do their best to ensure that this happens is foolish. 

 

Here’s to hoping that it works out, but make no mistake, it is hardly a shoe-in and they can ill afford to diminish the chances of Allen working out by drafting defense in round 1.  If they do not want to be looking for work after the 2020 season  then they absolutely have to focus on correcting Allen’s mentals of the game.  This cannot wait. 

 

That will not be done by feeding the problem by giving him even more deep-options.  That merely enables him to continue to play in a manner that will never foster franchise status.  It will be done by forcing him to look short first except on plays specifically designed to go deep, what are called “high percentage plays” for a reason, which often involve recognizing a flaw in coverage on pre-snap reads coupled with that development in post-snap reads.  It is Allen's inability or unwillingness, as we will soon find out which, to utilize those "high-percentage passes" that are contributing to his low completion percentage.  Unwillingness would be more easily correctable despite the fact that old habits are hard to break.  The more that Allen scrambles, runs, or looks deep first without concern for what else is open, is the more that this will not happen.  If it doesn’t happen, there will be no significant progress.  If there's no significant progress then the team will be without the franchise QB that they so desperately need.  

 

Most QBs drafted in round 1 do not come into the league with this handicap.  The few that do have not succeeded.  McD and the team will simply have to work harder at QB than most other teams if the requisite improvements are to be made.  Can they be made?  Sure, of course.  Will they be made?  Depends upon the methodology employed and the success that they can achieve therein.  The only certain thing is that if they do not directly attempt to correct terminal errors in Allen’s play, it will never happen.  The odds of it happening by chance or accident are nil.  Simply relying on “a second year of experience” ain’t gonna cut it without a direct approach to the problem. 

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Absolutely Must?? As in, you’ll fire him if he doesn’t? Oh, the horror!

 

No, I didn’t bother to read your epic. I just got a new eyeglass prescription and have no desire to speed up the next one. Take it back to the typewriter, proofread it and subtract 2/3rds if you want anybody to bother reading it.

  • Like (+1) 4
  • Haha (+1) 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was this really necessary? Since you generally don't draft for special teams, you have 2 other options, offense and defense.  They will address both , i guarantee it.

 

I'm glad I don't have the time or desire to write such a piece that hardly anyone will bother reading in it's entirety.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Absolutely Must?? As in, you’ll fire him if he doesn’t? Oh, the horror!

 

No, I didn’t bother to read your epic. I just got a new eyeglass prescription and have no desire to speed up the next one. Take it back to the typewriter, proofread it and subtract 2/3rds if you want anybody to bother reading it.

 

The gist is if anyone thinks the FA was good they live in a world represented in the picture below.

FWIW, I think the OP should go out on a date.

 

rainbows unicorns lollipops.jpg

Edited by ColoradoBills
  • Like (+1) 1
  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Absolutely Must?? As in, you’ll fire him if he doesn’t? Oh, the horror!

 

No, I didn’t bother to read your epic. I just got a new eyeglass prescription and have no desire to speed up the next one. Take it back to the typewriter, proofread it and subtract 2/3rds if you want anybody to bother reading it.

Unfortunately, I did. Reader's Digest Version: If Allen continues to play the way he has he will not only not reach franchise level, he will not even reach above average level.  He needs tons and tons of offensive help and 24 hour a day coaching (mere experience won't cut it) or he will never overcome his "handicaps" and "terminal errors." The chances for it actually happening are small and if anyone doesn't believe what he does, then you fall in the "rainbows, unicorns, and lollipop contingent ."

Edited by billsfan1959
  • Thank you (+1) 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, rayray808 said:

someone post cliff notes please

Someone did above

 

My response - they're in the Offense stage of the building plan. They will be getting offensive guys in the draft, but it's not their primary focus because getting the best football player at their pick is the main focus.

 

They believe in Josh Allen.

 

It's really that simple.

  • Like (+1) 3
  • Thank you (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I read it.  There's one statement that exposes the author for what he is, an anti- Bills and especially anti-Allen troll.  The statement refers to how few if any QBs that come into the league not being able to read defenses survive.  To which I can respond with one word:  Bull.  No rookie QB hits the ground running being able to read NFL defenses.  In fact, the ability to learn that is what will separate those who make it over those who don't.  It takes time to learn, and the insinuation that Allen is doomed because he did not hit the league with that talent is absurd on its face.

  • Like (+1) 6
  • Awesome! (+1) 4
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...