Gunner's 2019 1st Round Mock (UPDATE - Final Version now published)

[GunnerBill]

Afternoon all,

 

I normally do three versions of a mock 1st round each year: 1 pre-FA and combine; 1 post-FA and another in the final 48 hours. This year because of work commitments the first of those 3 never transpired so here for comments and criticism is version 1 of 2 and the update will come on draft day itself.

 

1. Cardinals - Kyler Murray - Quarterback - Oklahoma

The Cardinals seem set on moving on from Josh Rosen after just one season, which feels very premature. Kyler Murray is a talented Quarterback but he is also a big risk. A one year college starter, who committed to playing football very late, with less than ideal size, going to a team with very few pieces in place around him.

 

2. 49ers - Quinnen Williams - Defensive Tackle - Alabama

For a team entering year 3 of a rebuild the 49ers still have a lot of holes. The injury to Jimmy Garoppolo last year probably buys Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch some breathing space but they need to show progress this year. Given that they have already have 4 first round defensive ends on their roster (including Dee Ford who they traded a 2020 2nd rounder for) they may well pass on Nick Bosa and take Williams to bolster the defensive interior.

 

3. Jets - Nick Bosa - Defensive End - Ohio State

This is the dream scenario for the Jets. Bosa is the best player in this draft and fills a huge need for them. He will fit perfectly in Gregg Williams’ defense.

 

4. Raiders - Devin White - Linebacker - LSU

The Raiders defense was a mess last season particularly a linebacker where they lacked speed and athleticism. They have signed Brandon Marshall and Vontaze Burfict as free agents but both are 1 year prove it type deals and neither has the capacity to be a sideline to sideline difference maker which is what they would get with Devin White.

 

5. Buccaneers - Josh Allen - Outside Linebacker - Kentucky

Tampa’s defense needs plenty of help but the change from Mike Smith to Todd Bowles at Defensive Coordinator is a significant upgrade. The next task is to find a dominant pass rusher and Allen is a good scheme fit as an outside linebacker in the type of 3-4 defense that Bowles likes to run.

 

6. Giants - Rashan Gary - Defensive Line - Michigan

Most people agree that the Giants need a Quarterback. That said Dave Gettleman ignored those cries last season and there are whispers that New York doesn’t have Dwayne Haskins at the top of their board. Therefore, with a second 1st rounder to come, I suspect the Giants will take the versatile Rashan Gary to replenish a defensive line that has lost Jason Pierre-Paul, Damon Harrison and Olivier Vernon over the past 12 months.

 

7. Jaguars - Jawaan Taylor - Offensive Tackle - Florida

The Jaguars are another team who could look at a Quarterback but their commitment to Nick Foles is for at least two, and likely three, seasons. Foles’ best form in the NFL came behind an Eagles offensive line with bookend tackles in the shape of Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. Cam Robinson has been a little up and down in his two years as Jacksonville’s starting left tackle but has shown some encouraging signs and plugging in Jawaan Taylor on the right hand side would help keep Foles clean in the pocket.

 

8. Lions - Montez Sweat - Defensive End - Mississippi

Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia come from the New England school of building out from the trenches. In his 4 years as General Manager Quinn has picked three 1st round offensive linemen and with Ziggy Ansah leaving as a free agent it is very possible that this time he turns to the defensive line and pairs the fast and instinctive Montez Sweat with free agent acquisition Trey Flowers to provide a much needed pass rush.

 

9. Bills - Ed Oliver - Defensive Tackle - Houston

The Bills’ free agency moves give them some flexibility at #9. Oliver is the best player available at this stage and his ceiling is somewhere between Aaron Donald and Kawann Short. He would immediately replace, and indeed improve upon, the interior pass rush that the Bills lost when Kyle Williams retired.

 

10. Broncos - TJ Hockenson - Tight End - Iowa

Denver will ultimately need to find a long term answer at Quarterback but the decisions to hire a veteran coach (though first time Head Coach) in Vic Fangio and trade for Joe Flacco suggest that the Broncos are going to have one more go at winning now before embarking on a rebuild of sorts. Flacco has always loved utilising tight ends in the passing game and there is nobody to speak of in that regard on the Denver roster at the moment. Hockenson would change that and contribute as a blocker at the same time.

 

11. Bengals - Jonah Williams - Offensive Line - Alabama

Cincinnati’s offensive line was slightly better in 2018 than 2017 but it still needs work. Jonah Williams could come in and start at right tackle, opposite Cordy Glenn on the left side, or he could slide inside and contribute immediately at guard. New Head Coach Zac Taylor saw first hand in Los Angeles the benefit to a Quarterback of having a solid line infront of him.

 

12. TRADE! Redskins - Dwayne Haskins - Quarterback - Ohio State

Washington’s trade for Case Keenum at least gives them a viable option to start at Quarterback but he is a bridge option at best and they surely will look to draft a long term solution. Given that it appears Denver prefer Drew Lock and Cincinnati are likely to ride with Dalton again the team that Washington needs to be ahead of in order to land Haskins is the Dolphins at #13. Green Bay is having a mini-rebuild and would happily slide back 3 spots.

 

13. Dolphins - Cody Ford - Offensive Line - Oklahoma

Miami is currently slated to start Ryan Fitzpatrick at Quarterback. It is hard to not think that the tank is on as the Dolphins look ahead to the 2020 Quarterback class. Therefore an offensive lineman to protect that eventual franchise signal caller makes sense and Cody Ford could either replace Ju’Wuan James at right tackle or start inside Laremy Tunsil as a left guard.

 

14. Falcons - Christian Wilkins - Defensive Tackle - Clemson

Atlanta had a bottom 5 run defense in 2018 and their on viable starter on the interior of the defensive line - Grady Jarrett - is slated at this stage to play on the franchise tag. Christian Wilkins was a leader and a playmaker on the national championship winning Clemson defense and while he lacks some wow factor is one of the safest selections in the 2019 draft.

 

15. (From Washington) Packers - Devin Bush - Linebacker - Michigan

This might to be a bit of a surprise selection for many but the Packers seem to be working under the belief that if they are going to eek another Superbowl out of the Aaron Rodgers era then they need to improve defensively. They focused on rebuilding the secondary in the 2018 Draft and then strengthened their defensive front in free agency, but there is still a need to a fast, instinctive, playmaker at linebacker and Devin Bush is a fit for Mike Pettine’s scheme.

 

16. Panthers - Clelin Ferrell - Defensive End - Clemson

Carolina are well positioned at #16 to address their critical need at defensive end. Clelin Ferrell has good power and good bend and fits the profile of that big end that the Panthers have generally utilised under Ron Rivera and various defensive coordinators.

 

17. Giants - DK Metcalf - Wide Receiver - Mississippi

This would not be the most popular pick in New York. The Giants would be criticised for trading away Odell Beckham Junior only to spend the pick received on an inferior player at the same position. That said OBJ’s departure does create a need at receiver even after the signing of wily veteran Golden Tate.

 

18. Vikings - Andre Dillard - Offensive Tackle - Washington State

Minnesota are committed to Kirk Cousins so they need to make sure that they give him the best possible chance to succeed. Due to injury, retirement and losses in free agency the 2018 offensive line was messy at best. Dillard is a polished pass protecting left tackle even if he doesn’t dominate in the running game and selecting him would allow the Vikings to move Riley Reiff back to the right side where he is much more comfortable.

 

19. Titans - Brian Burns - Defensive End - Florida State

Brian Orakpo hit the wall quickly last season and his deterioration and subsequent retirement, coupled with Derrick Morgan’s decline left the Titans with very little pass rush threat from the outside. I expect Jon Robinson and Mike Vrabel to seek to address that at #19 given the strength of this class of edge rushers. Brian Burns has elite burst and impressive rush lane appreciation and would be an instant starter.

 

20. Steelers - Greedy Williams - Cornerback - LSU

Greedy Williams seems to have slipped down draft boards since the season ended but his tape still puts him in the conversation to be a top 10 pick. The only reason I can see him sliding is the number of teams ahead of this spot who will likely target offensive tackles and edge rushers. The Steelers have needed a #1 corner for a number of years. They drafted Artie Burns in the 1st round of the 2016 draft but he has been benched multiple times since the start of last season and they look ready to move on.

 

21. Seahawks - Deionte Thompson - Safety - Alabama

The success of the Seattle defense since Pete Carroll arrived has been its simplicity. Critical to that has been versatile safeties who can tackle, cover, anticipate and communicate. Kam Chancellor is now pretty much retired and Earl Thomas left in free agency. It is time to build Legion of Boom version 2.0 and Thompson has the skillset to begin that process.

 

22. Ravens - Garrett Bradbury - Center - North Carolina State  

Baltimore’s starting center last season was former college free agent Matt Skura. He struggled and was allowed to leave as a free agent (remaining unsigned at the point of writing). They need to get a leader in there to help Lamar Jackson run this offense and Garrett Bradbury might not be the physical prototype for an NFL center but he is a captain and a leader and a communicator and he would be a very sensible pick at this point in the draft.

 

23. Texans - Greg Little - Offensive Tackle - Mississippi

Houston’s offensive line has not done a good job of protecting Deshaun Watson since he came into the NFL and only his phenomenal physical ability and toughness has prevented him from spending half of his tie on injured reserve. They need to address that this year and while I have doubts about Little’s technique Bill O’Brien has shown a willingness to draft physical prototypes over technicians when building his offensive line.

 

24. Raiders - Daniel Jones - Quarterback - Duke

When I think about what the Grudens want in a Quarterback I think about a distributor, a game manager, a guy who plays within the framework of the offense. Daniel Jones is physically limited but he checks all of those boxes. To me this is a reach but it also feels like an Oakland move.

 

25. Eagles - Byron Murphy - Cornerback - Washington

The Philadelphia Eagles still have a very strong roster but there were times in 2018 when their defensive secondary was somewhat of a liability. Ronald Darby has signed a one year contract extension to remain through 2019 but it doesn’t seem that he is the long term answer and Byron Murphy is a guy who could start immediately at nickel and transition outside as he gains experience. He is a natural ball haw with terrific instincts and great hands.

 

26. Colts - Jachai Polite - Defensive End - Florida

Chris Ballard has done a terrific job rebuilding the Indianapolis Colts since taking over as General Manager. However, one area where they still struggled last year was pass rush. They had to scheme pressure rather than rely on their guys 1v1. Polite is a boom or bust prospect in many ways and there are questions about maturity and character but Ballard was in the Chiefs front office that took chances on the likes of Tyreek Hill and Polite’s speed and athleticism make him a potential game wrecker.

 

27. Raiders - Noah Fant - Tight End - Iowa

With Jared Cook gone the Raiders have a desperate need for a receiving tight end. The number one tight end on their depth chart currently is Lee Smith who is strictly a blocking specialist. Fant needs to work on his all round game to become a top tight end in the league but he is already a dangerous offensive weapon with good hands and better than average speed for the position.

 

28. Chargers - Dalton Risner - Offensive Tackle - Kansas State

The Los Angeles Chargers have a deep and strong roster in a number of areas but they need help on the offensive line. With a number of offensive linemen already off the board they could go in a different direction at this spot but Risner is also a nice fit here. He might be a little leaden footed to ever be more than a right tackle at the NFL level but he could start immediately on the right side.

 

29. Chiefs - Jaylon Ferguson - Defensive End - Louisiana Tech

I am a huge fan of Jaylon Ferguson and he had an outstanding 2018 season. I understand the questions about the competition he has played against but put on the Mississippi State tape and watch him stand out even against good opposition. The Chiefs have released Justin Houston and traded away Dee Ford. Someone has to rush the passer for them and Ferguson could fit the bill.

 

30. Packers - AJ Brown - Wide Receiver - Mississippi

It has been a tough couple of years for Aaron Rodgers watching his trusted targets Jordy Nelson and now Randall Cobb walk out of the door. However, there is a player in this draft who reminds me of Cobb in many ways and it is Mississippi’s AJ Brown. I think he can be a physical presence in the slot or a smooth intermediate route runner with safe hands on the outside. Slot him in opposite Davante Adams and prepare to watch Green Bay make another run.

 

31. Rams - Dexter Lawrence - Defensive Tackle - Clemson

Los Angeles never really seemed to best out of Ndamukong Suh last season until the playoffs. He has now departed leaving a space for a nose tackle to slot in next to Aaron Donald. Lawrence is disruptive and violent at the point of attack and I think he would slot into a Wade Phillips defense perfectly.

 

32. TRADE! Broncos - Drew Lock - Quarterback - Missouri

For the second time in two years a team with Joe Flacco as its starting Quarterback trades up to the final spot in the 1st round to select the guy who will ultimately replace him. Denver is sad to be high on Lock but I am sceptical that means high enough to take him 10th overall. This way he can sit for a year refine his game, work on his inconsistent accuracy and compete for the starting job in 2020.

 

Edited April 25, 2019 by GunnerBill

[fansince88]

I would take that pick.

[NewEra]

Glad I’m not a giants fan.  

 

Really hope the Jets don’t get Bosa, but I feel he could have his share of injuries going forward.  Hunch.

 

ballard is far too good of a GM to take Polite rd 1

 

Happy with Oliver.

Edited March 31, 2019 by NewEra

[Virgil]

If the first 4 shake out that way, I’m doing whatever I can to trade to 5 for Allen

 

I hope the Jets trade back as I don’t want to face Bosa or Allen twice a year

Edited March 31, 2019 by Virgil

[FearLess Price]

9 minutes ago, Virgil said:

If the first 4 shake out that way, I’m doing whatever I can to trade to 5 for Allen

 

I hope the Jets trade back as I don’t want to face Bosa or Allen twice a year

 

I was thinking similar hate to see us not make an attempt to get bosa.

 

 

Also if we sign LB JAllen, the name space and time paradox should reverse the flutie curse. Its all relative.

[qwksilver]

Nice work GB. I really hope the qbs don't slide as much as this. I'd prefer at least 1 more go in the top 10. Also @Virgil love to us go up and get JA(def) as well but not sure Bucs wouldn't run to the podium with his name on it. 

[John from Riverside]

Would totally take it.....

 

I wonder if there might be some possibility of the bills trading back into the 1st for Risner who looks like a RT to me

 

 

 

[WMDman]

Love Oliver at 9

[YoloinOhio]

Bosa to Jets is a nightmare for us but i think he would despise Greggg. 

 

Great job!

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Bosa to Jets is a nightmare for us but i think he would despise Greggg. 

 

Great job!

 

 

 

...isn't the Risner kid projected in some mocks as a 3rd?..............

[YoloinOhio]

9 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...isn't the Risner kid projected in some mocks as a 3rd?..............

Yes but he is all over the board. I have seen him in the 1st too. 

[TigerJ]

Oliver looks to me like the most likely pick of the Bills at this point as well.

[SouthNYfan]

Bashes people's suggestions tj hockenson to the bills @#9 then has him going in the next pick @#10

??

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Yes but he is all over the board. I have seen him in the 1st too. 

.

 

 

thanks bud...appreciate the help...

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Bashes people's suggestions tj hockenson to the bills @#9 then has him going in the next pick @#10

??

 

I think Hock at #10 is a bit of a reach. Mocks are about where I think players will be picked not where I would pick them or think they should be picked.

Edited March 31, 2019 by GunnerBill

[SouthNYfan]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Hock at #10 is a bit of a reach. Mocks are about where I think players will be picked not where I would pick them or think they should be picked.

 

If you don't think a player should be picked there then why would you think another team would pick them there?

Especially when it's somebody who you said might be a stretch at the end of the first, then you put him at #10?

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

If you don't think a player should be picked there then why would you think another team would pick them there?

Especially when it's somebody who you said might be a stretch at the end of the first, then you put him at #10?

 

I didn't say he was a stretch at the end of the 1st. To me Hockenson is a 1st/2nd borderline as a grade (but I don't have 32 first round grades). Hock is definitely in the best 32 prospects in this class. That doesn't make him a 1st round grade. 

 

Mocking is very different. What you are trying to do when you mock is to look at the way every individual team in the league is constructed. Who is the GM? Who is the coach? Who is the Quarterback? What is their salary cap situation? What depth do they have?

 

I actually found Denver one of the more difficult teams to mock for because I think it is hard to judge where they are in the cycle. Are they trying to win now? Are they trying to reload for a run? Are they in tear down or rebuild mode? 

 

Grading and mocking are two very different exercises and I don't believe that every team in the NFL will see every player the same way I do. So you have to try and put yourself in their mindset. 

 

EDIT: to take you a bit more practically into my thinking on Denver - at the start of the offseason they had a need at corner. Now I think Greedy Williams is a top 10 to 15 player. But Denver aggressively pursued two starting corners in FA. That potentially tells me something about how they feel about thr corners that might be there for them at #10. 

Edited March 31, 2019 by GunnerBill

[SouthNYfan]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't say he was a stretch at the end of the 1st. To me Hockenson is a 1st/2nd borderline as a grade (but I don't have 32 first round grades). Hock is definitely in the best 32 prospects in this class. That doesn't make him a 1st round grade. 

 

Mocking is very different. What you are trying to do when you mock is to look at the way every individual team in the league is constructed. Who is the GM? Who is the coach? Who is the Quarterback? What is their salary cap situation? What depth do they have?

 

I actually found Denver one of the more difficult teams to mock for because I think it is hard to judge where they are in the cycle. Are they trying to win now? Are they trying to reload for a run? Are they in tear down or rebuild mode? 

 

Grading and mocking are two very different exercises and I don't believe that every team in the NFL will see every player the same way I do. So you have to try and put yourself in their mindset. 

 

Explain what you mean by "first round grade"

If a guy is in the top32 prospects and you have him going at #10 how is that not a "first round grade"

[1st&ten]

Thanks for your input Gunner. I'd be happy with Oliver as our pick. I think Allen might go before White with the LB's. I wonder if the Giants are really interested in Haskins but their GM Gettleman seems kind of whacky to me so who knows what he'll do.

 

Edited March 31, 2019 by 1st&ten

[GunnerBill]

Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

Explain what you mean by "first round grade"

If a guy is in the top32 prospects and you have him going at #10 how is that not a "first round grade"

 

When I grade I watch the tape evaluate and assign a number. I plot those numbers onto a board with some objective barometers that don't change year to year. So on my board you need to be a 7.1 or better to be a true first round grade. A 7.0 or a 6.9 is my borderline category. I don't give every player a grade and then draw the line after the 32nd player and say "anyone above the line is a first round grade." Indeed I don't know anyone who does it like that. Because it doesn't work like that. Some drafts are stronger than others. One draft a few years ago (2016) I only had 19 true 1st round grades.