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John Wawrow: "better chance of the Bills moving up for a player than moving back"


Logic

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1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Didn't that dude once say he would suck D to get Austin Proehl and Ray Ray McCloud?

It could simply be Sherlock's thing, so it might not be that much of a stretch for him/her

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Everyone hopes to uncover late round gems. That goes with out saying. Percentages say that the top of the draft produces stars though.

QBs and Pass Rushers

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7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yup, thats why Free Agency was such a big win for Beane.  With 10 draft picks too, he has the ability to anything 

 

With our cap space this and next year, if we don't feel too good about what is in the 2020 draft (due to underclassman) and plan on picking after 20ish. You could argue that next year's one could be easily on the table to shoot up for a generational blue chip pass rusher

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14 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Would I? No.

 

Should they? Only if they believe that the guy they're targeting is a future all pro.

 

They literally do not have a single star player on the roster.  It would make some sense.  Hate to give up next year’s first but if they think they’ve found their QB, all options should be on the table.

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2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

With our cap space this and next year, if we don't feel too good about what is in the 2020 draft (due to underclassman) and plan on picking after 20ish. You could argue that next year's one could be easily on the table to shoot up for a generational blue chip pass rusher

 

Yeah, and if we move up high from 9 it may take that.  

 

I still remain skeptical we would move up from 9 just because the cost is so high and the draft is so rich in the first 2 rounds.  I am firmly convinced, and have been all offseason, that Beane will be moving around this draft and will not end it with 10 players drafted.  I have just felt that it was more likely to be after our first pick and Beane could even make more than one trade up in the draft.  

 

With the number of FA's we signed, everything has certainly changed.  He signed about twice as many as I excepted.  So now anything is possible and I think its a lock that at some point, maybe even more than once, Beane will be making upward moves to get a player.

 

If I was to make a mock now...I think I would have the Bills stay at 9 but then make a move to get back into the first to grab another player.  Maybe thats DK then Simmons.  Or DT/EDGE then TJ/Fant.    Or DT/EDGE then Harry/AJ Brown.  So many ways this could play out.  

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Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, and if we move up high from 9 it may take that.  

 

I still remain skeptical we would move up from 9 just because the cost is so high and the draft is so rich in the first 2 rounds.  I am firmly convinced, and have been all offseason, that Beane will be moving around this draft and will not end it with 10 players drafted.  I have just felt that it was more likely to be after our first pick and Beane could even make more than one trade up in the draft.  

 

With the number of FA's we signed, everything has certainly changed.  He signed about twice as many as I excepted.  So now anything is possible and I think its a lock that at some point, maybe even more than once, Beane will be making upward moves to get a player.

 

If I was to make a mock now...I think I would have the Bills stay at 9 but then make a move to get back into the first to grab another player.  Maybe thats DK then Simmons.  Or DT/EDGE then TJ/Fant.    Or DT/EDGE then Harry/AJ Brown.  So many ways this could play out.  

I agree, I think they stay at 9 (unless they get an incredulous offer) but trade up in spots after that 

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4 minutes ago, familykwi said:

Can't imagine why I'm being insulted for not knowing the guy, but thanks for clarifying that.  Apparently I don't read sites he contributes to. 

 

What I have read indicates the cost of moving up, at the top of the draft in particular, does not usually result in a net gain.  I also believe there is enough evidence to support the idea that the draft is an inexact science, so putting more eggs in a single basket to get a particular guy instead of identifying multiple guys is statistically unsound.  Not every high pick is a stud and not every stud was a high pick.  That's all I'm saying.  I'd rather have multiple chances personally.

 

I'd love to go back over the last 10 drafts for example and see how many trade up guys paid off vs trade down players.  Julio was a hit and so far, so is Mahomes, but Watkins was a real miss.  I wonder how it all actually shook out.

It is not an insult to state more people know him than you.  It is a fact and he is not only the AP reporter but has contributed to the wall for a while.

 

I agree with you on general about moving up vs moving down expect in two circumstances:

  • The player you want has specific skills which fit your scheme hard to find and may not be available
  • You may not have space for slots so packaging up helps you from just not cutting your draft picks

Personally I prefer to trade picks for extra picks following year.  It gives you two things - accumulate number of picks and gives you picks during year to trade if a player becomes available.

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