Josh Allen vs Carson Wentz - Rookie Season

[Logic]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Wentz rookie year was a classic case of narrative. He came out hot, played 4 good games and the narrative became "Wentz is fantastic" despite the fact that after that hot start he really struggled.

It's so interesting how the first few games of a rookie QB's career shape the narrative of how his first year went and what his prospects for success are.

Case in point: Last year Sam Darnold came out swinging in his debut primetime game and threw (4?) TDs. He was darn good in his first few games, leading many to talk about how sensational he was. Just like with Wentz, Darnold proceeded to have a bunch of TERRIBLE games in a row. His turnovers far outweighed his TDs. It was clear as day that he was struggling mightily. Like Allen, Darnold came back from injury looking much improved, but it's weird that the public narrative sort of conveniently edited out that huge portion in the middle where he struggled.

The opposite thing happened with Allen: He looked pretty bad to the outside observer over the course of his first few games. That was enough to cause most casual fans and most ESPN analyst types to say "he is who we thought he was", "he stinks", "he's a bust", etc...Then he came back from injury and pretty much improved game after game through the end of the season, culminating in a game where he produced 5 TDs. Still, it wasn't enough. The narrative remained that he had a bad rookie season.

Narrative, narrative, narrative. Of course, coming out gangbusters and becoming an elite player will shut all of that up, but it IS interesting to note how perception forms and sticks pretty early on.

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

It's so interesting how the first few games of a rookie QB's career shape the narrative of how his first year went and what his prospects for success are.

Case in point: Last year Sam Darnold came out swinging in his debut primetime game and threw (4?) TDs. He was darn good in his first few games, leading many to talk about how sensational he was. Just like with Wentz, Darnold proceeded to have a bunch of TERRIBLE games in a row. His turnovers far outweighed his TDs. It was clear as day that he was struggling mightily. Like Allen, Darnold came back from injury looking much improved, but it's weird that the public narrative sort of conveniently edited out that huge portion in the middle where he struggled.

The opposite thing happened with Allen: He looked pretty bad to the outside observer over the course of his first few games. That was enough to cause most casual fans and most ESPN analyst types to say "he is who we thought he was", "he stinks", "he's a bust", etc...Then he came back from injury and pretty much improved game after game through the end of the season, culminating in a game where he produced 5 TDs. Still, it wasn't enough. The narrative remained that he had a bad rookie season.

Narrative, narrative, narrative. Of course, coming out gangbusters and becoming an elite player will shut all of that up, but it IS interesting to note how perception forms and sticks pretty early on.

 

“Give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon.”

― Mark Twain

[Seasons1992]

47 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

 

He will be with an improved set of receivers

 

 

 

Ugh, I've seen enough after 2 minutes. Those guys better hit the JUGS machine on full-max speed and catch the damn ball this year.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

I tend to respect tQBR more because it tries to evaluate every play in it's context but it is a mystery how Allen got a tQBR of 19.4 for the game vs. the Lions (passer rating 89.3) where Stafford got an 83.3(106.7) in a game won by the Bills 14-13.  That is a head scratcher and good counter evidence for those that do not like it.

 

 

Passer rating is far from perfect. But QBR is junk.

[Ronin]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Good find!  I bet Carson had better weapons and a better OL as well!

 

Did you look to find out?  

 

If you'd have bet that you'd have lost.  

 

Ertz, a TE, was his top receiver.  Jordan Matthews was his only other WR worthy of note. All in all Allen had more options.  

[auburnbillsbacker]

At the end of his career I don't think Allen will have a great QB rating but I do think he will be a very good QB.  His stats were not great last year but he took a team with a horrible line and young WRs and led the team to a .500 record during the games he started.  I'm very excited about the future.  

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

 

I do not have the same respect for passer rating as you.  Avoid a sack, escape the pocket and throw the ball away?  A good play that hurts passer rating.  Score a TD on a sneak or a 15+ yard scramble where several tackles are broke?  Good/great plays that passer rating does not care about.  Take a sack by holding the ball too long or running out-of-bounds behind the line?  Bad plays that passer rating does not measure.  Failing to secure the ball while being hit and fumble?  Another bad play ignored by passer rating.  Throw and complete a pass for 6 yards on 3rd and 11?  Inconsequential but passer rating loves it and gives it a 92.

 

I do not think Josh will ever max out on passer rating.  He will tend to score more TDs running than most because he is good at it and it's low hanging fruit, avoid sacks, and throw to the sticks on 3rd down.  Thus, passing TD% is lower and completion % is lower.

 

I tend to respect tQBR more because it tries to evaluate every play in it's context but it is a mystery how Allen got a tQBR of 19.4 for the game vs. the Lions (passer rating 89.3) where Stafford got an 83.3(106.7) in a game won by the Bills 14-13.  That is a head scratcher and good counter evidence for those that do not like it.

 

 

Passer rating is basically completion percentage extrapolated. It’s not a great formula imo.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, this data is cherry picked.  Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8.   That's a very important difference.  

 

The result is that their passer ratings were very different:  79.3 vs. 67.9.   A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example).   A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good.  

 

Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage.  But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things.  

 

Josh needs to be better to be effective.   

 

No disrespect, but the old QB Rating systems is almost completely worthless and no coach, GM, analysts etc use it for much of anything.  The ESPN QBR is substantially better metric, and even it is flawed.  In fact, the old QB Rating is probably the most useless stat in all professional sports in terms of determining individual effectiveness. 

 

And Comp % is a valid comparison, however taking the comp % stat at face value is not reliable as it lacks context.  And in Josh case, he was no where near as inaccurate as the % suggests.  He has a reel which is OVER 5 min long of dropped passes by his receivers.  Thats almost unheard of in the NFL and that doesnt show the many great throws negated by dumb penalties.  It also doesn't show the poor OL play, lack of run game (mostly from the poor OL), and the terrible group of receiving options he had to work with that struggled to get open.  

 

So to isolate the pass % isn't really doing any analysis of Josh any justice.  Like you said, Josh is likely going to be over 60% this year for a number of reasons:

1. Our WR room is better with guys who can get open both deep and short.  Josh took a LOT of deep shots last year because our WR's were not winning often enough and getting open on their short and intermediate routes.  This forced us into a lot of down and long situations too again making us take more deeper (and lower % throws) shots. 
2. Our OL will be better and give Josh more time to set and fire, especially on shorter routes with guys like Cole here now.
3. Our Run game will be better between the OL upgrades and having to defend Josh as a runner and a thrower too.
4. He will have a full offseason as the unquestioned starter to get all the reps, build timing and chemistry, as well have a year under his belt reading defenses.  
5. Our WR's and TE's will drop less passes.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Here's what I've got on every rookie QB season since 2011.

 

Allen: 74.8

Wentz: 72.3

[gordong]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, this data is cherry picked.  Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8.   That's a very important difference.  

 

The result is that their passer ratings were very different:  79.3 vs. 67.9.   A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example).   A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good.  

 

Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage.  But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things.  

 

Josh needs to be better to be effective.   

 Did Philly have a 5 minute video of all the drops after Wentz's rookie year??   Completion Percentage only tells some of the story.... Wentz had a better line, Josh ran for his life most games. Wentz had real WR....  Buffalo had ?????   

Edited March 27, 2019 by gordong

[Ronin]

3 hours ago, wppete said:

 

 

Looks good at the surface, doesn't it.  

 

Here's some additional info however.  

 

Allen put up half of his TDs in two games against a divisional opponent, he was pretty bad otherwise.  You can look at the game logs.  Miami was that team.  A tale of two QBs in terms of passing.  Very good rookie numbers in two games against Miami.  75 YPG less passing on average in the other 10 games, only 5 TDs to 9 INTs in the other ten games, which compares poorly to Wentz.  

 

Only 4 of Allen's 10 TDs (40%) were in the Red Zone.  Three of those four were vs. Miami, only 1 RZ TD otherwise.   

12 of Wentz's 16 (75%) were in the Red Zone.  

 

Wentz gave up 3 sacks in 89 attempts in the Red Zone. 

Allen gave up 3 sacks in 29 attempts.  Bledsoe territory.  

 

Wentz Yards-per-Game 236

Allen Yards-per-Game 173, ... 162 YPG in ten games not vs. Miami  

 

Overall Wentz had 33 sacks on 640 dropbacks.  (5.2%) 

Allen had 28 sacks on 348 dropbacks.  (8.0%)  

Bledsoe career:  6.4%, w/ Bills 8.4%.  

 

That's problematic for a QB that's so mobile, big, strong, and athletic.  

 

Wentz was a lot more consistent in his play in his rookie season.  Allen had no consistency in his passing game other than to say he was consistent against Miami.  

 

Keep in mind that Wentz had absolutely none of Allen's mobility or rushing ability and a fraction of his athleticism.  

 

FWIW  

 

 

 

 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, gordong said:

 Did Philly have a 5 minute video of all the drops after Wentz's rookie year??   Completion Percentage only tells some of the story.... Wentz had a better line, Josh ran for his life most games. Wentz had real WR....  Buffalo had Benjamin 

Don't forget Zay Jones...although there was some improvement from his rookie year, we was still a drop factory in 2018.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

They are different players with different skill sets. Its pointless to compare them based on a handful of stats. 

 

I agree.

 

Allen's best comparison is Cam Newton. With the exception of last year, his 8th season in the NFL, Cam is a low completion percentage QB. And obviously, they are both significant run threats. 

 

Wentz and Allen have nearly identical physical measurable's but that is where it ends. Despite the nearly identical physical measurable's Allen is clearly far more gifted athletically than Wentz. 

[billsfan5121]

8 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Looks good at the surface, doesn't it.  

 

Here's some additional info however.  

 

Allen put up half of his TDs in two games against a divisional opponent, he was pretty bad otherwise.  You can look at the game logs.  Miami was that team.  A tale of two QBs in terms of passing.  Very good rookie numbers in two games against Miami.  75 YPG less passing on average in the other 10 games, only 5 TDs to 9 INTs in the other ten games, which compares poorly to Wentz.  

 

Only 4 of Allen's 10 TDs (40%) were in the Red Zone.  Three of those four were vs. Miami, only 1 RZ TD otherwise.   

12 of Wentz's 16 (75%) were in the Red Zone.  

 

Wentz gave up 3 sacks in 89 attempts in the Red Zone. 

Allen gave up 3 sacks in 29 attempts.  Bledsoe territory.  

 

Wentz Yards-per-Game 236

Allen Yards-per-Game 173, ... 162 YPG in ten games not vs. Miami  

 

Overall Wentz had 33 sacks on 640 dropbacks.  (5.2%) 

Allen had 28 sacks on 348 dropbacks.  (8.0%)  

Bledsoe career:  6.4%, w/ Bills 8.4%.  

 

That's problematic for a QB that's so mobile, big, strong, and athletic.  

 

Wentz was a lot more consistent in his play in his rookie season.  Allen had no consistency in his passing game other than to say he was consistent against Miami.  

 

Keep in mind that Wentz had absolutely none of Allen's mobility or rushing ability and a fraction of his athleticism.  

 

FWIW  

 

 

 

 

So what set of games can we remove from Wentz’s rookie year to make this comparable?  Perhaps his two best games?

[GimmeSomeProcess]

29 minutes ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

At the end of his career I don't think Allen will have a great QB rating but I do think he will be a very good QB.  His stats were not great last year but he took a team with a horrible line and young WRs and led the team to a .500 record during the games he started.  I'm very excited about the future.  

I agree, could end up a lot like mike Vick. A great rushing qb who uses his rocket arm to keep defenses honest. He is a guy who will

make DC worry about in there game plans. Allen is obviously not as fast as Vick but his got this incredible wiggle to his running ability

[JAC'dUp]

It also appears that Josh is a team first leader, reaching out to teammates and gaining the respect of the veterans. Wentz still seems to be struggling with that aspect of being a leader

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I agree, could end up a lot like mike Vick. A great rushing qb who uses his rocket arm to keep defenses honest. He is a guy who will

make DC worry about in there game plans. Allen is obviously not as fast as Vick but his got this incredible wiggle to his running ability

I would put money on Allen vs Vick in the 100m. 

[eball]

34 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Did you look to find out?  

 

If you'd have bet that you'd have lost.  

 

Ertz, a TE, was his top receiver.  Jordan Matthews was his only other WR worthy of note. All in all Allen had more options.  

 

Seems you only semi-answered half of the question, and did a poor job at that.  I think Philly had Jason Peters at LT, right?  Jason Kelce at C made the Pro Bowl.  Darren Sproles made the Pro Bowl.  C'mon, dude, don't be lazy.  And "all in all" Jordan Matthews/Zach Ertz by themselves are better options than what Allen had.

 

Try harder.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

45 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

Ertz, a TE, was his top receiver.  Jordan Matthews was his only other WR worthy of note. All in all Allen had more options.  

 

So just because Ertz is a TE that disqualifies him as a receiver? I guess all those TD's Brady threw to Gronk don't count? Your logic is ridiculous here. 

Edited March 27, 2019 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Stank_Nasty]

18 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Looks good at the surface, doesn't it.  

 

Here's some additional info however.  

 

Allen put up half of his TDs in two games against a divisional opponent, he was pretty bad otherwise.  You can look at the game logs.  Miami was that team.  A tale of two QBs in terms of passing.  Very good rookie numbers in two games against Miami.  75 YPG less passing on average in the other 10 games, only 5 TDs to 9 INTs in the other ten games, which compares poorly to Wentz.  

 

Only 4 of Allen's 10 TDs (40%) were in the Red Zone.  Three of those four were vs. Miami, only 1 RZ TD otherwise.   

12 of Wentz's 16 (75%) were in the Red Zone.  

 

Wentz gave up 3 sacks in 89 attempts in the Red Zone. 

Allen gave up 3 sacks in 29 attempts.  Bledsoe territory.  

 

Wentz Yards-per-Game 236

Allen Yards-per-Game 173, ... 162 YPG in ten games not vs. Miami  

 

Overall Wentz had 33 sacks on 640 dropbacks.  (5.2%) 

Allen had 28 sacks on 348 dropbacks.  (8.0%)  

Bledsoe career:  6.4%, w/ Bills 8.4%.  

 

That's problematic for a QB that's so mobile, big, strong, and athletic.  

 

Wentz was a lot more consistent in his play in his rookie season.  Allen had no consistency in his passing game other than to say he was consistent against Miami.  

 

Keep in mind that Wentz had absolutely none of Allen's mobility or rushing ability and a fraction of his athleticism.  

 

FWIW  

 

 

 

 

how about we keep in mind that wentz also had a probowler at center and LT as well..... your statements "look good on the surface"