Mcdermott's thoughts on Bills aging backfield.

[Gugny]

1. This is funny:  McDermott joked that Gore will be dropped off at the facility by a "senior citizen bus" and leave at 2:30 p.m. for the "early bird special."

 

2. If the Bills go into the season with Gore, McCoy and Ivory as their running backs, I'll consider that a major fail on Beane's part.  At the very least, the need to get rid of McCoy.  Maybe Ivory, too.  I like the addition of Gore.

[mannc]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's ridiculous. 

 

Gore is already the 4th leading rusher all time, and with a decent season he will pass Barry Sanders.  The top 16 all time are in the Hall except Adrian Peterson and Edgerrin James.   Gore has had 11 seasons over 1000 yards and two more where he missed by less than 50.  He also had 5 seasons over 40 receptions.   

 

McCoy needs 1500 yards to be in the top 15 and 2000 yards to pass Jim Brown and be in the top 10.  Easily doable. Three seasons.  

 

These guys are two of the great backs in the history of the league. 

Gore has been a very good back for a long time.  That's worth something, but it should not be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame.  He's really only had one outstanding year--his second year in the league.  Other than that year, he's (arguably) never been a top-three back in the league.  His career numbers are based on his longevity as a good, solid back, rather than brilliance.  No way was he a better back than Edgerrin James, for example.  And his teams have never won squat.

 

A marginally better case can be made for McCoy, I think, because during his best couple years he was probably one of the top two or three backs in the league.  I wouldn't vote for him, though.  

[#34fan]

10 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Yeah, Ivory is still under contract but I'm assuming they're going to roll with McCoy, Gore and a rookie on the active roster, meaning Ivory might be cut. 

 

The league, as of right now, just seems to belong to young, productive backs... Kamara, Hunt, Elliot, Gurley, Michel... McD seems to be openly bucking the trend...

 

We'll see what happens in the draft, but everyone else is drafting talented kids, putting them in positions to succeed, and reaping the benefits...

 

Loading up on backs near the end of their road just doesn't seem like good business.

[Mr. WEO]

59 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

I always thought the actual phrase was "steel sharpens steel".... Metallurgically speaking, McD is in a different age... Which may be why he gravitates toward older backs.

 

 

 

Offensively, McD is the Iron Age, which predates the age of hardened steel by about 500 years. 

[QCity]

15 minutes ago, Gugny said:

1. This is funny:  McDermott joked that Gore will be dropped off at the facility by a "senior citizen bus" and leave at 2:30 p.m. for the "early bird special."

 

2. If the Bills go into the season with Gore, McCoy and Ivory as their running backs, I'll consider that a major fail on Beane's part.  At the very least, the need to get rid of McCoy.  Maybe Ivory, too.  I like the addition of Gore.

Ivory was a dead man walking the second Gore signed.

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

He did? 

4.8 ypc on 52 attempts isn't too shabby especially when McCoy or Ivory couldn't even break 3.5 ypc.  All the points about him being a liability in pass protection though is legitimate criticism.  I know he really impressed the coaching staff last year so don't be surprised if this guy is your 3rd RB this year.

[#34fan]

Looks like Schefty is saying Ivory is cut today at some point.

[billsfan_34]

44 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Not sure if that is very fair to a kid that injuries forced into the lineup and he did a good job toting the rock when his number came up.

 

Little harsh and that is coming from someone not known for going easy on our players.

 

 

 

 

Wasnt trying to be harsh- I just dont think he is very good. 

[Mark Long Beach]

36 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

The league, as of right now, just seems to belong to young, productive backs... Kamara, Hunt, Elliot, Gurley, Michel... McD seems to be openly bucking the trend...

 

We'll see what happens in the draft, but everyone else is drafting talented kids, putting them in positions to succeed, and reaping the benefits...

 

Loading up on backs near the end of their road just doesn't seem like good business.

 

Good Business? Eh...

 

Bean has to play the longer game which is not always the best thing for _right now_.   But I agree, as will most, that the ultimate answer is a young stud RB. However, our offensive line is in the process of being completely rebuilt and we still have a young QB trying to take major steps forward.   I'd argue that a young RB is a bigger risk than needed and that the very best thing to have in the short term is a very experienced set of RB to be alongside Josh Allen.  Pass protection ability will be key and same for receiving ability.  Both McCoy and Gore are very good at both. A young RB might not be.

 

And honestly, this is a one year RENTAL at most.   Without a doubt we'll end up with a young RB post draft next year.   I'm okay with going in with old and heavily experienced RB with more than one talent for this year.

[Jauronimo]

2 hours ago, #34fan said:

 

I always thought the actual phrase was "steel sharpens steel".... Metallurgically speaking, McD is in a different age... Which may be why he gravitates toward older backs.

 

 

I'm tired of people calling McDermott a dummy.  He went to William & Mary!!! Most posters here couldn't even get into that school.  He might not be a Brad Smith in the thinking department but McD is sharp enough to be a head coach in this league

[Dr.Sack]

Trading for Adrian Peterson or Beast Mode would be awesome and likely give us the 3 active backs in league in terms of career rushing yards.

[Ronin]

11 hours ago, bmur66 said:

McD can say whatever he wants but I fully expect that come training camp there will be a set of fresh young legs ready to challenge for the position. We will see if that "steel" has lost it's temper or not.

 

Correct.  

 

But case in point:  Consider what was said about Ivory last year.  Now he's gone.  

11 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

That the holistic objective thing again?  How is it the holistic objective thing is constantly negative?

 

More opionated factless dataless stat-less gibberish?   

 

The more things change the more they stay the same.  

 

The holistic objective thing will be negative until proven otherwise.  Wouldn't you say.  See, some of you guys seem to think that if enough people say something then it will come to pass despite there not being any holistic or objective reasons for it to actually happen.  

 

Kinda like paying Dareus and Fitzpatrick huge amounts of money which were unjustified, with the rationale that apparently if we pay them they'll for some reason play to those levels.  Or how drafting Jones based on a bunch of stats in college based upon circumstances that simply won't nor ever exist in the NFL that he'll be able to duplicate his collegiate success as such.  Foolish as that way of thinking is.  

 

But hey, it's a narrative-driven sports world.  Hence all the unexpected disappointments at season's end.  

[Ronin]

7 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

 

In that case we can drop their age in the equation. 

 

Ole Franky was very productive in Miami. He can still get ya 4 yards a carry and hes fantastic in blocking. 

 

Shady may have looked slower...but lets be real. Our line last year may have been one of the worst run blocking units in Bills History. Im willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

ANDDDDD......you think we arent going to bring in about 4 or 5 other guys in for camp?

 

Well, you've said two different things there.  If we bring in more RBs then I wouldn't say that they have all that much confidence in what's here.  

 

BTW, seems like they said the same thing last season about Ivory, he's gone now.  

 

Otherwise, sorry, I didn't realize that if he was productive in Miami last year that he was a shoe-in to duplicate that performance here at the age of 36 behind an OL that frankly is only marginally better than the one you said was one of our worst run-blocking units in Bills history.  

 

We'll see.  But I wouldn't bet much that Gore will average 4.6 ypc again, he averaged 3.8 in the three seasons prior to last year.  That's not lining up for better here.  

[oldmanfan]

13 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Correct.  

 

But case in point:  Consider what was said about Ivory last year.  Now he's gone.  

 

More opionated factless dataless stat-less gibberish?   

 

The more things change the more they stay the same.  

 

The holistic objective thing will be negative until proven otherwise.  Wouldn't you say.  See, some of you guys seem to think that if enough people say something then it will come to pass despite there not being any holistic or objective reasons for it to actually happen.  

 

Kinda like paying Dareus and Fitzpatrick huge amounts of money which were unjustified, with the rationale that apparently if we pay them they'll for some reason play to those levels.  Or how drafting Jones based on a bunch of stats in college based upon circumstances that simply won't nor ever exist in the NFL that he'll be able to duplicate his collegiate success as such.  Foolish as that way of thinking is.  

 

But hey, it's a narrative-driven sports world.  Hence all the unexpected disappointments at season's end.  

You claim statistical expertise that you don't possess.

[Ronin]

6 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

You can say this IF they do not draft a young guy OR they do not bring one in after cuts in preseason. 

The offensive line has  alot to do with the running backs production. Not all of it. A few years ago LeSean showed why an elite running back is nice to have. If the line can open up holes a good back can get 4 yards a carry. I am less concerned about Gore and LeSean given the line moves made so far. I think Beane gets o play and i think McDermott is learning quickly. Daboll being around another season is also huge. Continuity right now with this young team should pay off. 

 

It's highly unusual for RBs over 30 to put up big numbers.  It's folly to rely on 31 and 36-year old RBs.  A band-aid fix at best, absolutely nothing going forward.  

[oldmanfan]

Just now, TaskersGhost said:

 

It's highly unusual for RBs over 30 to put up big numbers.  It's folly to rely on 31 and 36-year old RBs.  A band-aid fix at best, absolutely nothing going forward.  

Gore averaged over 4 yards a carry last year.  That pesky data again.

[Ronin]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Gore averaged over 4 yards a carry last year.  That pesky data again.

 

Oooh, data.  LOL  

 

Now, here's a fun exercise for you.  

 

What was his ypc average in the three seasons prior to that with nearly 800 carries?  

 

How does that compare to the average NFL ypc average for RBs?  

 

Based on that information, do you expect his ypc avg this year to be greater than last year's or less than last year's?  

 

Come on, you can do it!  

Edited March 26, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[DJB]

12 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I think it's a wise strategy to not spend a lot of resources on a premier free agent RB like LeVeon Bell or using a high draft pick this season.  It has been shown again and again that the learning curve moving from the college game to the NFL is easiest at the RB position.  Kamara, Barkley, Kareem Hunt are recent examples.  Build the rest of the offense that needs time to gel this season.  O-lines need time to gel.  The QB-WR-TE relationship needs time to develop. 

 

I believe that this year is going to be a fun year to be a Bills fan and I expect we'll make the playoffs, but I still don't think we are ready to make a Super Bowl run this year.  I think after this season we will have a more experienced QB, a solid and cohesive O-line to protect him, and WRs and TEs that have learned how to catch Allen's bullets.   Heading into the 2020 season the only thing we may be missing to have a truly explosive offense is a dynamic, world class running back. 

 

I think that 2020 is the year that we grab the best RB in the draft class.  A RB who can catch the ball, pass protect, and hammer the rock.  Drop him behind that great O-line, getting the ball from a QB who is a threat to run too, and who has a passing attack that is game enough to keep the defense honest and stop them from stacking the box, and you will see an offense every bit as explosive as Kelly, Thurman, and Andre Reed.

 

Drafting that RB stud next season will be the last piece of the offensive puzzle.

 

 

Great post and it also just so happens to be the year of the running back in 2020. So many talented guys will be drafted

[Ramza86]

5 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Well, you've said two different things there.  If we bring in more RBs then I wouldn't say that they have all that much confidence in what's here.  

 

BTW, seems like they said the same thing last season about Ivory, he's gone now.  

 

Otherwise, sorry, I didn't realize that if he was productive in Miami last year that he was a shoe-in to duplicate that performance here at the age of 36 behind an OL that frankly is only marginally better than the one you said was one of our worst run-blocking units in Bills history.  

 

We'll see.  But I wouldn't bet much that Gore will average 4.6 ypc again, he averaged 3.8 in the three seasons prior to last year.  That's not lining up for better here.  

 

Lets hope the line isnt only marginally better this year.....because not even zeus himself is getting 4.0 ypc.

[oldmanfan]

19 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Oooh, data.  LOL  

 

Now, here's a fun exercise for you.  

 

What was his ypc average in the three seasons prior to that with nearly 800 carries?  

 

How does that compare to the average NFL ypc average for RBs?  

 

Based on that information, do you expect his ypc avg this year to be greater than last year's or less than last year's?  

 

Come on, you can do it!  

I know this might be a little complex for you, but when you have data sets and you want to compare you have to examine variables than can affect the comparison.  So first show me your data sets.  Then tell me about the variables that can affect them.  One to be fair would be age of the back.  Another would be quality if the offensive line.  Another would be quality of the rushing defenses his teams played against.  And so on.  Gore had a good year last year, his performance this year will depend on him plus our O line, play calls, and such.

 

Serious question for you:  what is your background is statistics?  I have graduate training in it and use stats in my job every day.    If you have statistical training then you should know the influence of variables on stats.  If not, you are falling into the trap many do that don't understand stats; they blindly look at numbers without understanding what affects them.