This data suggests waiting until 2nd and 3rd rounds on WR and TE

[racketmaster]

With the draft nearing, I wanted to take a closer look at 2 positions (WR, TE) that have been in the conversation for the Bills using their first round pick on. Metcalf and Hockenson have been the 2 names most regularly mentioned if the Bills were to use pick #9 on WR or TE. Prior to the combine, I was on board with taking Hockenson, even if it meant taking him at 9. I still would not be mad at the selection (he should be a quality player at the very least) but I think it would not be the best way to maximize pick value. I thought it might be worth looking into what draft rounds produce quality and elite players at the WR and TE positions. 

What I chose to use as a measure of quality was receiving yards as I thought it was the best measure for receiving targets. With WRs, I looked at the top 30 ranked WRs in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Top 30 WRs, I deemed quality WRs. I also looked at the top 15 WRs for the same years and I viewed them as elite WRs. I did the same for the TE position except I chose the top 25 for quality players and top 10 for elite TEs. The reason for the difference was that there are just less productive receiving TEs than WRs. For each of the WRs and TEs that made the lists, I recorded the rounds they were drafted. I wanted to see what the percentages were for drafted rounds for the quality and elite WRs and TEs. So what did it show?

2016, 2017 and 2018 TOP 30 WRs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS:

ROUND 1: 31% (28)

ROUND 2: 24% (22)

ROUND 3: 13% (12)

ROUND 4: 1% (1)

ROUND 5: 11% (10)

ROUND 6: 5% (4)

ROUND 7: 5% (4)

UDFA: 10% (9)

2016, 2017 AND 2018 TOP 15 (ELITE) WRs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS:

ROUND 1: 38% (17)

ROUND 2: 24% (11)

ROUND 3: 7% (3)

ROUND 4: 0% (0)

ROUND 5: 11% (5)

ROUND 6: 7% (3)

ROUND 7: 2% (1)

UDFA: 11% (5)

 

2016, 2017 and 2018 TOP 25 TEs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS:

ROUND 1: 24% (15)

ROUND 2: 18% (17)

ROUND 3: 26% (19)

ROUND 4: 8% (5)

ROUND 5: 10% (6)

ROUND 6: 4% (5)

ROUND 7: 0% (0)

UDFA: 10% (8)

2016, 2017 AND 2018 TOP 10 (ELITE) TEs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS:

ROUND 1: 20% (6)

ROUND 2: 30% (9)

ROUND 3: 30% (9)

ROUND 4: 3% (1)

ROUND 5: 3% (1)

ROUND 6: 7% (2)

ROUND 7: 0% (0)

UDFA: 7% (2)

 

WR POSITION: The best chance at success comes from the first round. 31% of quality (top 30) WRs and 38% of the elite WRs are from the first round. The next best round is the second round with 24% and 24% for both quality and elite production. There is a significant drop off after the second round. Based on the numbers and the fact that the WR position is expected to be extremely deep in 2019, I think the value lies in the 2^nd round. It seems likely that a WR such as AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler or a Debo Samuel will be available when the Bills pick in the 2^nd round. If the Bills determine that they want another WR, the 2^nd round is where they should go looking. The numbers between the first and second round are close enough and the depth is great enough to think the best way to maximize pick value would be take a WR in the 2^nd.

 

TE POSITION: This position was even more interesting to me. The 3^rd round actually had a higher percentage (26% as opposed to 24%) of quality players than what came from the 1^st round. This even held when looking at the elite TEs in that both the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds had the highest percentage of elite receiving tight ends at 30% a piece. Based on the numbers and the fact that the tight end position is considered to be deep this year, waiting until the 3^rd round appears to be the best way to maximize the value of selecting a tight end. In looking at the numbers, I changed my tune and would much prefer the Bills to wait on TE until the 2^nd or even better the 3^rd round. A player like Jace Sternberger, will be available in the 2^nd and maybe even the 3^rd round.

 

 Waiting on WR and TE, will allow the Bills to attack the defensive side of the ball and in particular the defensive line. It is the strength of the draft and the Bills could really use a pass rusher and some youth up front. In sum, I am completely fine with passing on Metcalf and Hockenson in order to grab a defensive lineman because we still have a good chance of finding talented WRs and TEs in the 2^nd and 3^rd.

[Richard Noggin]

Now of course what you need to do is compare the total numbers of players at each position (WR and TE) drafted in each round, against the numbers of productive and elite players drafted in those same rounds, to see a better correlation of hit-vs-miss probability. I'm an English prof, though, so stats isn't my strong suit. But it makes sense, right?

 

Could it be that fewer total TEs get drafted early (as compared to QB, WR, OT, DE, DT, CB, etc.), therefore spreading out the numbers (of productive/elite players) based simply on greater quantities going later in the draft? 

 

Without doing a single keystroke of research, I will make a bold assertion: productive guards and running backs are available in rounds 2-4. (But of course really good ones often do still get drafted highly nonetheless, which of course complicates the matter.)

 

I appreciate the conversation you're starting here, and I hope people want to engage. 

 

[Mat68]

Just evaluate the players.  Take the best player when it's your turn to pick.  If you get an offer you like trade down.  When you see dips in quality of prospects compared to where your selecting try to trade up.  

[Richard Noggin]

12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Just evaluate the players.  Take the best player when it's your turn to pick.  If you get an offer you like trade down.  When you see dips in quality of prospects compared to where your selecting try to trade up.  

Great illustration of Occam's Razor right here. I think you just Richard-punched most draft pundits and their entire artificial draft news cycle nonsense.

 

Only medicals and interviews mean much once the college season ends, except in rare circumstances. Watch the film. Talk to the kids. Make sure they have cartilage in their joints. Draft the best overall players available, for the most part. You're either filling holes OR creating competition and depth. Both things are good. Keep adding talent to the roster.

[Mat68]

Outliers are all over the field and Hall of Fame.  Gronk was a 2nd round pick because he had back surgery and he missed a large portion of his last year in college. 

 

You dont take Guards in the top 10.  Quinton Nelson is an All pro as a rookie and could be generational.  Go into the draft looking to add the best guys you can.  By increasing the talent you improve your roster. 

 

I dont think historical data comes into play, however the strengths of each positions in corresponding rounds do.  Example, I think starting in rd 3 there will be 5 or so rbs who could be impactful players availabe.  The conversation is how good does your #1 rated guy have to be to draft him in rd 1 or 2 if you can get one in rd 3.  

[Nextmanup]

26 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Just evaluate the players.  Take the best player when it's your turn to pick.  If you get an offer you like trade down.  When you see dips in quality of prospects compared to where your selecting try to trade up.  

Never trade up, unless it is to get a QB near the top of the draft.

 

 

 

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

Great illustration of Occam's Razor right here. I think you just Richard-punched most draft pundits and their entire artificial draft news cycle nonsense.

 

Only medicals and interviews mean much once the college season ends, except in rare circumstances. Watch the film. Talk to the kids. Make sure they have cartilage in their joints. Draft the best overall players available, for the most part. You're either filling holes OR creating competition and depth. Both things are good. Keep adding talent to the roster.

But some NFL execs,  the one's who have the final, that are not football fans or lifers fall for it.  See Ej Manuel 14th overall.  Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel.  

[Mat68]

8 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Never trade up, unless it is to get a QB near the top of the draft.

 

 

 

I'm talking deeper in the draft.  Top 20 is expensive.  Beyond that if you see wide margins in talent you should see if you can get said player.  Not from a need standpoint but a value stand point.  If you see a guy you think is a starter the rest are back ups or special teams players why not move up and throw in an extra pick the following round?

Edited March 25, 2019 by Mat68

[Richard Noggin]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

But some NFL execs,  the one's who have the final, that are not football fans or lifers fall for it.  See Ej Manuel 14th overall.  Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel.  

No doubt. They let the ancillary stuff overshadow the primary factor: can the player play at the next level? What does the film say? 

 

Now, by that logic, unfortunately, the Bills have a young QB whose college film must be rationalized with all the other factors and tools. Sure hope that's an outlier situation...

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

No doubt. They let the ancillary stuff overshadow the primary factor: can the player play at the next level? What does the film say? 

 

Now, by that logic, unfortunately, the Bills have a young QB whose college film must be rationalized with all the other factors and tools. Sure hope that's an outlier situation...

See now I go the other way.  Top 10/ first rd I want talent.  Give me solid starters rd 2 and 3.  Round 1 you need to find difference makers.  Drafted talented guys.  Trust the coaches can coach.

 

My opinion of Allen was high before he was drafted.  He has the most potential, and is the most athletic of all the Qb drafted last year.  He elevated a horrible program to the most wins its seen in decades.  He wasnt always pretty but threw lasers to all levels of the feild, and made 2 to 3 plays a game 2 or 3 players in sport could make.  Last 3 weeks of the season Allen was a top 5 fantasy Qb aswell.  

[rayray808]

we are taking a WR first... maybe not at 9, but first

[Buffalo Barbarian]

That is most picks.

 

i would build the whole team from second and third rounders if i could (except Allen of course)

 

[Doc Brown]

That pry took a lot of time.  It broke down as I'd expect although I don't agree with your conclusion when it comes to WR.  It actually shows taking a WR in the 1st round gives you the best chance of success at that position.  I'm guessing if TE was as valued a position then a lot of those 2nd and 3rd round successes would've been drafted in the 1st round.

 

If you look at the TE's taken in round 1 the last 10 years it shows that's not a position you should reach for.  Unless he's the next Travis Kelce take a similar draft grade at a different position and take your chances in round 2 and 3.

 

-Brandin Pettigrew

-Jermaine Gresham

-Tyler Eifert

-Eric Ebron

-O.J. Howard

-Evan Engram

-David Njoku

-Hayden Hurst

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

we are taking a WR first... maybe not at 9, but first

I see what you did there...

[Aussie Joe]

Love me some data

[formerlyofCtown]

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Now of course what you need to do is compare the total numbers of players at each position (WR and TE) drafted in each round, against the numbers of productive and elite players drafted in those same rounds, to see a better correlation of hit-vs-miss probability. I'm an English prof, though, so stats isn't my strong suit. But it makes sense, right?

 

Could it be that fewer total TEs get drafted early (as compared to QB, WR, OT, DE, DT, CB, etc.), therefore spreading out the numbers (of productive/elite players) based simply on greater quantities going later in the draft? 

 

Without doing a single keystroke of research, I will make a bold assertion: productive guards and running backs are available in rounds 2-4. (But of course really good ones often do still get drafted highly nonetheless, which of course complicates the matter.)

 

I appreciate the conversation you're starting here, and I hope people want to engage. 

 

Its got nothing to do with the round.  It has to do with the player and the scouting staff finding talent.

Also the staff that developes that player.

Edited March 25, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[racketmaster]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Now of course what you need to do is compare the total numbers of players at each position (WR and TE) drafted in each round, against the numbers of productive and elite players drafted in those same rounds, to see a better correlation of hit-vs-miss probability. I'm an English prof, though, so stats isn't my strong suit. But it makes sense, right?

 

Could it be that fewer total TEs get drafted early (as compared to QB, WR, OT, DE, DT, CB, etc.), therefore spreading out the numbers (of productive/elite players) based simply on greater quantities going later in the draft? 

 

Without doing a single keystroke of research, I will make a bold assertion: productive guards and running backs are available in rounds 2-4. (But of course really good ones often do still get drafted highly nonetheless, which of course complicates the matter.)

 

I appreciate the conversation you're starting here, and I hope people want to engage. 

 

I admit that there are probably more than a few flaws to taking the approach I did. It matters how many WRs and TEs were selected in each of the rounds as well and if I ran the numbers on all the other positions (or at least the offensive side of the ball) it might provide better context.

 

What it did show was that there are productive and highly productive WRs found in the 2nd round each year (certainly more are found in the first round but it is close enough in my opinion to wait until the 2nd). It also showed that there are productive and highly productive TEs being found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds each year (even more than the first round). So now it is up to Brandon Beane and company to identify that talent at the WR and TE positions that slip through the cracks into the 2nd and 3rd. It is pretty much a consensus that the draft this year is deep at both of the positions so it seems to make sense that productive players will be there in the 2nd and 3rd (maybe even some in the 4th because of how deep the TE position is) and the Bills could maximize value if they were to wait and identify the talent that does fall outside the 1st round.

[racketmaster]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That pry took a lot of time.  It broke down as I'd expect although I don't agree with your conclusion when it comes to WR.  It actually shows taking a WR in the 1st round gives you the best chance of success at that position.  I'm guessing if TE was as valued a position then a lot of those 2nd and 3rd round successes would've been drafted in the 1st round.

 

If you look at the TE's taken in round 1 the last 10 years it shows that's not a position you should reach for.  Unless he's the next Travis Kelce take a similar draft grade at a different position and take your chances in round 2 and 3.

 

-Brandin Pettigrew

-Jermaine Gresham

-Tyler Eifert

-Eric Ebron

-O.J. Howard

-Evan Engram

-David Njoku

-Hayden Hurst

You might be right when looking at the WR numbers, especially if you were looking to specifically draft a top tier WR. Elite WRs are found in the 1st round at a 38% rate as opposed to the 2nd round at 24%. If you were looking to find just a productive WR it is much closer with 31% in the 1st and 24% in the 2nd. That's probably more what I was looking at as I feel the Bills might be more likely to try and find that quality WR rather than look for the home run elite talent (but that is much more an opinion than anything else).

 

I'd say more than anything, the numbers probably changed my opinion on drafting Hockenson in the 1st. Not that he won't be good but there seems to be tremendous value at the TE position in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (at a greater rate than the first). Based on the past numbers and the fact the draft appears very deep at TE, I think it seems logical that if the Bills waited they could find a productive TE in rounds 2 or 3 (if they identify the right one).

 

As for the WR, I guess if you are looking for the elite talent then round 1 is your best bet. With free agency, I think the Bills just need to add a younger quality prospect at WR rather than trying to hit the home run in the first. If they were to wait, they could add to the defensive line (which is a major need) and then identify that WR in the 2nd. Ideally, Bills trade down a few slots and get extra 2nd and 3rd round picks.

Edited March 25, 2019 by racketmaster

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I'm talking deeper in the draft.  Top 20 is expensive.  Beyond that if you see wide margins in talent you should see if you can get said player.  Not from a need standpoint but a value stand point.  If you see a guy you think is a starter the rest are back ups or special teams players why not move up and throw in an extra pick the following round?

 

 

 

It's not just the top 20. Trading up, say, from #40 where we are to #27, the sort of thing being constantly talked about on here these days, will cost you a 3rd.

 

Don't trade away higher round picks. If you can work something out, like a same-round switch or something, great. But don't give up 2nds or 3rds. Even 4ths and 5ths are valuable (Taron Johnson in the 4th and Teller in the 5th last year and Milano in the 5th the year before). Smaller tradeups outside the first can make a lot of sense, but the further up you trade the more you give up valuable picks.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

 

44 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

You might be right when looking at the WR numbers, especially if you were looking to specifically draft a top tier WR. Elite WRs are found in the 1st round at a 38% rate as opposed to the 2nd round at 24%. If you were looking to find just a productive WR it is much closer with 31% in the 1st and 24% in the 2nd. That's probably more what I was looking at as I feel the Bills might be more likely to try and find that quality WR rather than look for the home run elite talent (but that is much more an opinion than anything else).

 

As for the WR, I guess if you are looking for the elite talent then round 1 is your best bet. With free agency, I think the Bills just need to add a younger quality prospect at WR rather than trying to hit the home run in the first. If they were to wait, they could add to the defensive line (which is a major need) and then identify that WR in the 2nd. Ideally, Bills trade down a few slots and get extra 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

Yes I would like the better/elite player and a better chance at hitting on that. (WR is also our biggest need) 

 

This is the second thread this month trying to show why we don't need an elite WR. Both times the OP has used an experiment set up to prove their point.

 

While I genuinely appreciate the effort, neither has swayed my opinion that an elite WR would help this offense, and Allen's development, more than anything else.