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Do you think all these signings point to the Bills trading back into the bottom of the first round?


njbuff

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36 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Math currently says YES
blowing up FA like Bills did might have one leaning towards picking     Quality >
and i do
 My historical concern with Bills.

 Can they develop College players into NFL players.
Thats is yet to be proven in my mind.

 

nice darned spot to be in btw Mr Beanes and Co.
 

Allen,  Edmunds do not qualify ?

how about T White

Yeah, 3 players, 2 of them still have a lot to prove. Need more than just a few...

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The value in this draft makes it unlikely in my mind that the Bills trade away picks to get back into the first round.  I just can't imagine a player falling that Beane would feel like he has to get his hands on.   To put it another way, I don't think the value drop off from a pick in the twenties to the 40th pick overall is so drastic that it's worth giving up picks for.  If Bean can package some day three picks to get another pick in round 2 or 3, that might tempt him.

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I re-read it and see that you meant trading up from the 2nd, not trading down from 9. I think it is possible. They have some nice depth and have filled some holes. What they need more than anything is blue chip talent. 

Edited by YoloinOhio
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38 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

The value in this draft makes it unlikely in my mind that the Bills trade away picks to get back into the first round.  I just can't imagine a player falling that Beane would feel like he has to get his hands on.   To put it another way, I don't think the value drop off from a pick in the twenties to the 40th pick overall is so drastic that it's worth giving up picks for.  If Bean can package some day three picks to get another pick in round 2 or 3, that might tempt him.

 

If he has his eye on somebody like Harry or a lineman like Risner or Lindstrom then I could definitely see him moving up to late 20s rather than hoping they are still there at 40..

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1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I think Beane will go for more quality than quantity this draft.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see those 10 picks cut in half with trade ups.  

Teams will be bustin down the door to get one of our extra 5th and 7th founders. 

 

Two fours are nice I guess.  After that we have 5 picks in rounds 5 thru 7.  Not a lot there. 

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I don't see why Buffalo would trade up for a DE, they would absolutely be giving up a 1st round pick in next years draft and as much as I like Nick Bosa, giving up draft picks especially our 1st is a no go for me, I'd actually hate it if the Bills did that but that's me. I do envision the Bills moving back into round 1 though, maybe to get the OT or G they couldn't get at 9 because they needed a pass rusher or vice versa.

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9 hours ago, njbuff said:

The Bills are signing FA's at a record pace for this franchise.

 

Who would be the target trading back into the bottom of the first round?

 

Plus these signings mean they really can't keep all 10 picks.

 

What do you think?

 

 

I don't see any logic at all to the cause and effect you suggest.

 

They are signing FAs as we knew they would because of their many needs and large cap nest egg.

 

If they move down, I see them getting one of the top three TEs or maybe Ximine.

 

 

4 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I think Beane will go for more quality than quantity this draft.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see those 10 picks cut in half with trade ups.  

 

 

Nah. They want to build through the draft. The way you do that is quantity. The way you don't do that is cut your picks in half.

 

The analytics agree.

 

The traditional wisdom is to not trade up at a high cost ... unless it's for a QB. The analytics all back it up. The process of spotting talent is so unsure, for everyone, that your best chance is keeping lots of picks and taking lots of shots. They know this very well.

Edited by Thurman#1
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44 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Nah. They want to build through the draft. The way you do that is quantity. The way you don't do that is cut your picks in half.

 

The analytics say this without exception. 

 

The traditional wisdom is to not trade up at a high cost ... unless it's for a QB. The analytics all back it up. The process of spotting talent is so unsure, for everyone, that your best chance is keeping lots of picks and taking lots of shots. They know this very well.

 

He traded pick 65 to move up five spots for a MLB last year when they had a lot more holes to fill then this time...

 

If he likes someone he won’t be afraid to move up and get them..

 

 

Edited by Aussie Joe
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1 minute ago, R Y G A R said:

How would you feel if they traded up for Bosa Or QW? There's about a 85% chance I'd freak the hell out. 

 

The cost would be huge though...

 

I don’t want them giving up next years first... think the Bills have been down that road before..

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I think it’s very possible. 

 

Something along the the lines of what Baltimore did last year. 

 

I could see the Bills going edge at 9 (Sweat or Burns?) and then trading back into the 1st to get someone like Fant ahead of the Patriots. 

 

Baltimore used a late 4th Round Pick (125th overall) along with their 2nd Round Pick in 2019  to move from 52 to 32, twenty spots.

32nd overall = 590pts 

 

52nd overall= 380pts

125th overall= 47pts 

2019 2nd Round Pick= 210pts 

637points total

 

-this was using Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart. 

So Baltimore had to pay maybe a bit more than the true value, but at the same time, they were able to draft a quarterback. Also, 1st rounders do have the 5th year option, which basically gives the team an extra year of player control if they wish. 

 

 

I could see somehing like #40+#112+ Shaq Lawson to move up to #29

 

#29= 640pts 

 

 

#40= 500pts

#112= 70pts 

and I would assume Shaq is worth an early forth, so say another 85pts for Lawson.

 

Total= 655 

 

Maybe Buffalo adds a small 2020 pick as well? But I could see something like this getting them a second 1st Round Draft Pick in 2019.

 

Just far enough ahead of New England to take Noah Fant :)

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2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

He traded pick 65 to move up five spots for a MLB last year when they had a lot more holes to fill then this time...

 

If he likes someone he won’t be afraid to move up and get them..

 

 

 

 

That was a rebuild year when they had stocked a ton of extra picks to go get a QB. They still had two third-rounders when they traded that one. They don't have that luxury this year.

 

He won't be afraid to go up. He'll recognize that it's not smart. There's a difference. Unless there's some kind of all but insane bargain, it bucks the odds. That's the kind of deal that gets you results like two firsts and a 4th for Sammy Watkins.

 

Look at Thaler and Massey. They did an extremely extensive study on it.

 

As Kollidas suggests above, if they can trade away someone they think doesn't have a future here, like Shaq if they feel that way about him, it would make more sense. Don't expect 'em to trade away highish round picks, though.

Edited by Thurman#1
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7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That was a rebuild year when they had stocked a ton of extra picks to go get a QB. They still had two third-rounders when they traded that one. They don't have that luxury this year.

 

He won't be afraid to go up. He'll recognize that it's not smart. There's a difference. Unless there's some kind of all but insane bargain, it bucks the odds. That's the kind of deal that gets you results like two firsts and a 4th for Sammy Watkins.

 

Look at Thaler and Massey. They did an extremely extensive study on it.

 

Ton of picks??

 

They had already traded away their second round picks, and they  didn’t pick again after 16 until 96..

 

Im just making the point if he traded up in those circumstances he won’t think twice about doing the same this time, when things don’t seem as threadbare..

Edited by Aussie Joe
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18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Ton of picks??

 

They had already traded away their second round picks, and they  didn’t pick again after 16 until 96..

 

Im just making the point if he traded up in those circumstances he won’t think about doing the same this time, when things don’t seem as threadbare..

 

 

Fair enough, "tons" was overstating it. Sorry. But yeah, they had extra picks, more than this year.. Before they made that trade they had already got Allen, and still had another 1st and two thirds.

 

After that trade they still had a pick in the third and after they used it, they'd picked three guys in three rounds. That wouldn't happen this year. They have two 4ths and two 5ths. I can see them trading away one of those, but not their sole 2nd or their sole 3rd. The analytics show it's not a good idea.

 

Last year was a special year. They'd spent more than a season accumulating draft capital to go up and get a QB. 

 

Things are more threadbare this year in terms of picks. And also in terms of bald-faced needs. Every team without a franchise QB has an absolute need at QB. And in McDermott's system, he has an absolute need at the Kuechle spot, he needs a wildly athletic MLB smart enough to call plays.He filled both of his absolute needs last year with the extra picks he'd husbanded. Doesn't have any more specific needs, particularly after FA.

 

Check his record in Carolina. See how often they traded up there while giving up significant value. This is an unlikely eventuality.

Edited by Thurman#1
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