Do you think all these signings point to the Bills trading back into the bottom of the first round?

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, tons of picks. Before they made that trade they had already got Allen, and still had another 1st and two thirds.

 

After that trade they still had a pick in the third and after they used it, they'd picked three guys in three rounds. That wouldn't happen this year. They have two 4ths and two 5ths. I can see them trading away one of those, but not their sole 2nd or their sole 3rd. The analytics show it's not a good idea.

 

Last year was a special year. They'd spent more than a season accumulating draft capital to go up and get a QB. 

 

Things are more threadbare this year in terms of picks. And also in terms of bald-faced needs. Every team without a franchise QB has an absolute need at QB. And in McDermott's system, he has an absolute need at the Kuechle spot, he needs a wildly athletic MLB smart enough to call plays.He filled both of his absolute needs last year with the extra picks he'd husbanded. Doesn't have any more specific needs, particularly after FA.

 

Check his record in Carolina. See how often they traded up there while giving up significant value. This is an unlikely eventuality.

 

I think we have both made our arguments.. let’s wait and see what happens on draft night..

 

I expect then to pick twice in the first round..

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

I think we have both made our arguments.. let’s wait and see what happens on draft night..

 

I expect then to pick twice in the first round..

 

 

Again, where's the history of that happening in Carolina? I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them trade back.

 

Your two firsts scenario's quite possible. I could see them manage it by trading back from #9 to maybe #16 or #20, round there, and then taking the extra pick(s), probably a 2nd or 3rd and packaging it with the #40 to get up from there into the early 1st..

Edited March 23, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, where's the history of that happening in Carolina? I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them trade back.

 

What about Carolina?

 

McDermott & Beane are their own men now in Buffalo..

[Búfalo Blanco]

11 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Am I the only one around here that doesn't care if the Bills trade up or down!!!!

 

MARK IT ZERO

 

Bills fans are fragile, House.. very fragile...

[Troll Toll]

If it were me... I would likely try to trade down from 9 and spend early picks on WR and OL. It may seem odd to some given the focus on those positions in FA, but our biggest weakness right now is still in those areas. If we start picking defense at 9 and it turns out our offense still can’t stay on the field, what good is that? 

 

IMO putting together an offense that can score and force the other team’s offense to be one dimensional is more valuable to the defense than any player at 9. We need to start building leads in games, not expecting our defense to pitch shutouts.

[Pbomb]

I could see the Bills packaging their 2nd and 3rd to jump back into the first and try to land 2 impact players.  I think they will go dt and edge with their first 2 picks. Have to go rb at some point also I would think

[billsredneck1]

4 minutes ago, Pbomb said:

I could see the Bills packaging their 2nd and 3rd to jump back into the first and try to land 2 impact players.  I think they will go dt and edge with their first 2 picks. Have to go rb at some point also I would think

i'm curious as to what their thoughts are after meeting oliver. as much as i'd like to have him at 9, i think we really need an extra 2nd and 3rd if we're gonna do any trading up.....which i hope doesn't have to happen.  i hate to sound redundant but i would send shaq to atl. as part of a deal to get brady jarrett with the caveat of trading 9 for 14 and their 2nd.

 

this would alleviate some cap for atl. and give them a guy who play end or kick inside. i think we need more production than just setting the edge.

i don't think shaq will ever be an all around end especially that of a 19th pick.

 

secondly, i would trade 14 for 16 with carolina for a 3rd. 

 

i think sweat will make it to 16. (all the early teams with young qbs will be over drafting wrs and weapons for their young qbs.)

then i think with their  1st 3rd, i'd pick o. ximines.  that gives us an all pro dt and 2 terrific pass rushers to groom and use behind hughes and lorax.

we were 21st in hits and 26th in sacks (iirc) and that's gotta change.

 

i think they can get tillery dt or simmons dt later 3rd and possibly even 4th due to tillery's bad rep and simmons recent acl tear. we could move on from starr next year and have a great front 7.  like it or not they have to really put some talent on the defense. that still leaves us an extra 2, possibly a 3rd and two 4ths to deal with offense so....man i can't wait til draft day!

[machine gun kelly]

I love these mock drafts Pat and Mills do on Fridays on NFLR.  For those of you who don’t listen a lot, they are great in the afternoon.  I called in after Mills picked Hockinson at #9.  I love the pick even though we just signed another TE yesterday.

7 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

I think it’s very possible. 

 

Something along the the lines of what Baltimore did last year. 

 

I could see the Bills going edge at 9 (Sweat or Burns?) and then trading back into the 1st to get someone like Fant ahead of the Patriots. 

 

Baltimore used a late 4th Round Pick (125th overall) along with their 2nd Round Pick in 2019  to move from 52 to 32, twenty spots.

32nd overall = 590pts 

 

52nd overall= 380pts

125th overall= 47pts 

2019 2nd Round Pick= 210pts 

637points total

 

-this was using Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart. 

So Baltimore had to pay maybe a bit more than the true value, but at the same time, they were able to draft a quarterback. Also, 1st rounders do have the 5th year option, which basically gives the team an extra year of player control if they wish. 

 

 

I could see somehing like #40+#112+ Shaq Lawson to move up to #29

 

#29= 640pts 

 

 

#40= 500pts

#112= 70pts 

and I would assume Shaq is worth an early forth, so say another 85pts for Lawson.

 

Total= 655 

 

Maybe Buffalo adds a small 2020 pick as well? But I could see something like this getting them a second 1st Round Draft Pick in 2019.

 

Just far enough ahead of New England to take Noah Fant

 

This is not a bad pick with Fantastic and one of the edge rushers.

[CSBill]

15 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I could see something like the Bills take BPA at 9 no matter what position it is, and then try to trade up to like 27-31 to grab another need position while only sacrificing a pick or two. If they move up any higher then that range its gonna start to cost a lot more.

 

This may be more likely

[Scorp83]

15 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

Why would we trade back? Wouldn't these signings more likely suggest a trade up?

I think anything is possible...nothing is off the table. I doubt we trade back though... this QB class isn't getting too much hype to garner a trade up... then most teams usually don't trade up in the 1st Rd for defensive talent... if they miss they're guy, they'll wait & get the next guy on the draft board. 

 

So I honestly think ... even if we want to move, we won't find a partner

[papazoid]

everything is fluid

 

I believe they would prefer to trade down just a few spots and pickup a third

[skibum]

16 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

Why would we trade back? Wouldn't these signings more likely suggest a trade up?

I agree - the FAs are mostly depth guys; what they really need now is some high-end talent. 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

If it were me... I would likely try to trade down from 9 and spend early picks on WR and OL. It may seem odd to some given the focus on those positions in FA, but our biggest weakness right now is still in those areas. If we start picking defense at 9 and it turns out our offense still can’t stay on the field, what good is that? 

 

IMO putting together an offense that can score and force the other team’s offense to be one dimensional is more valuable to the defense than any player at 9. We need to start building leads in games, not expecting our defense to pitch shutouts.

 

WR is no longer a weakness.  Could they get better players?  Sure, every teamcould.  But is it worth spending high assets on a position as iffy as WR in this draft?  I don't think so.

 

As for OL, they've got Dawkins who played well when motivated, added Morse who will be the starting C, signed Nsekhe to a decent-sized contract telling me he'll be a starting OT, and added some other players with starting OG experience, namely Long who I think will win an OG spot.  So that leaves the other OG spot and no OG is worth that high a pick, or even a 1st rounder, unless it's Nelson.

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

What about Carolina?

 

McDermott & Beane are their own men now in Buffalo..

 

 

 

Yup. Their own men, following the Carolina blueprint.

 

Which mostly consists of the smart stuff that the best teams do. Build through the draft. Don't get in cap trouble. Don't use FA as your engine, use it to fill in gaps with low- and medium-priced guys. Don't trade up in the draft if it requires you to give good picks ... except if you need a QB. The smart stuff that the best teams do.

 

Hell, they've even gone beyond the stuff all the best teams do and into more specifics. Like, building the defense first and getting a QB who's big, strong and athletic and not worrying if he's got accuracy problems. They're using the Carolina method.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I could see something like the Bills take BPA at 9 no matter what position it is, and then try to trade up to like 27-31 to grab another need position while only sacrificing a pick or two. If they move up any higher then that range its gonna start to cost a lot more.

 

 

Going from #40 to #27 - #31 will cost a 3rd according the chart.

 

I don't see them giving up a third when they've only got one, unless something really weird happens to create an insane kind of bargain, like Bosa falling to #7 or something.

 

My best guess is they stay at #9, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them trade back early.

 

We'll see.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Thurman#1

[gonzo1105]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Going from #40 to #27 - #31 will cost a 3rd according the chart.

 

I don't see that happening unless something really weird happens to create an insane kind of bargain, like Bosa falling to #7 or something

 

You don’t think the Bills would trade up ahead of the Patriots to secure a Noah Fant or Irv Smith for an extra 3rd round pick? I could see that as a strong possibility. Your talking about a GM who traded away 2 2s and a 3 in just last years draft to secure the guys he wanted. He also has traded up for Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins. 

[entropyrules]

I agree with those suggesting trading this years later picks for better picks, round wise, in 2020 but has any consensus been reached on whether the 2020 class has better depth than the 2019 quality wise? Yes I know its early and no one knows which underclassmen are going to declare but there must be some limited prognostication even at this time.

 

 

. 

[Thurman#1]

On 3/23/2019 at 11:31 PM, gonzo1105 said:

 

You don’t think the Bills would trade up ahead of the Patriots to secure a Noah Fant or Irv Smith for an extra 3rd round pick? I could see that as a strong possibility. Your talking about a GM who traded away 2 2s and a 3 in just last years draft to secure the guys he wanted. He also has traded up for Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins. 

 

 

Beane wasn't here for the Jones and Dawkins trades, but neither of those required a major sacrifice. I don't doubt they'd trade up. I doubt they trade up and give up high round picks. 

 

And as I said above, Beane's trades last year had been engineered to bring in a QB. That's the exception for the general rule about trading away high picks. You can do it to get a QB if your team doesn't have a franchise guy. It's a desperate move, but your team has a desperate need. And yeah they traded up for Edmunds too but they seem to have done that in deep surprise that he was available that late and because they still had two thirds and were willing to give up one of them.  

 

This year if they give up a third, it won't be an "extra" third. They only have one.

 

We'll see, but this administration has built through smart, smart methods. They've made mistakes, but they've used smart methods, and the smart teams don't trade up and give away higher pick, except if trading for a QB. 

 

The Thaler and Massey study (and many more) explain why, in long and painful detail.

 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Cripple Creek]

17 hours ago, njbuff said:

The Bills are signing FA's at a record pace for this franchise.

 

Who would be the target trading back into the bottom of the first round?

 

Plus these signings mean they really can't keep all 10 picks.

 

What do you think?

If they don't move up from 9 then yes I'd expect a move up into rounds one or two.

 

If they do move up from 9 it's less likely, but still possible.

[Augie]

20 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I re-read it and see that you meant trading up from the 2nd, not trading down from 9. I think it is possible. They have some nice depth and have filled some holes. What they need more than anything is blue chip talent. 

 

Yep, we’ve got a lot more “solid” players than we did, it’s time for some “elite” players. 

 

I don’t think you can predict these guys at this point. It will all depend upon how the draft falls, and how they have them valued. The only trading I can predict is.....YES. Probably both up AND down at points. These guys aren’t shy about making moves. I love it! I wish it could start tomorrow! 

Edited March 23, 2019 by Augie