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WR & RB Breakdown via Advanced Metrics


DCOrange

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Last year, I provided a lot of data regarding the QB class given the obvious need that Buffalo had there. This year, I've continued to do some scouting of the QBs for historical purposes, but have focused more time and effort on the RBs and WRs.

 

I put together a FanPost over on Rumblings to kinda break things down. I did not provide my own conclusions in the OP, instead letting people draw their own conclusions rather than potentially influencing people's opinions with my own, but I'm happy to discuss them throughout this thread/answer any questions that people have about it.

 

Here's the link, hope you enjoy!

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/3/19/18272847/wr-amp-rb-prospects-pff-breakdown

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9 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Last year, I provided a lot of data regarding the QB class given the obvious need that Buffalo had there. This year, I've continued to do some scouting of the QBs for historical purposes, but have focused more time and effort on the RBs and WRs.

 

I put together a FanPost over on Rumblings to kinda break things down. I did not provide my own conclusions in the OP, instead letting people draw their own conclusions rather than potentially influencing people's opinions with my own, but I'm happy to discuss them throughout this thread/answer any questions that people have about it.

 

Here's the link, hope you enjoy!

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/3/19/18272847/wr-amp-rb-prospects-pff-breakdown

 

Thanks DC for all your college player input.

 

I real feel that RB is in the draft plan if one is available at the right time.

I see Ivory being the odd man out.

What are your thought on Montgomery or Henderson using a 3rd.

Would moving up to get Montgomery/Henderson be worth it.

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4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks DC for all your college player input.

 

I real feel that RB is in the draft plan if one is available at the right time.

I see Ivory being the odd man out.

What are your thought on Montgomery or Henderson using a 3rd.

Would moving up to get Montgomery/Henderson be worth it.

I personally view Henderson as the #2 or possibly #1 RB prospect in the draft. I love him and if he’s there in the 3rd, it’s a no brainer IMO. I think he’d be an acceptable choice at 40 or possibly a trade down from there if we’re lucky.

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6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I personally view Henderson as the #2 or possibly #1 RB prospect in the draft. I love him and if he’s there in the 3rd, it’s a no brainer IMO. I think he’d be an acceptable choice at 40 or possibly a trade down from there if we’re lucky.

 

I have the view that 10 rookies being drafted will be a waste because I feel the roster has improved and only 5 or so will make the team.

I guess that instead of a 2nd round trade down I'm in favor or a 3rd round trade up using some of the lower picks to move up.

 

Thanks again for your work!

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6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I have the view that 10 rookies being drafted will be a waste because I feel the roster has improved and only 5 or so will make the team.

I guess that instead of a 2nd round trade down I'm in favor or a 3rd round trade up using some of the lower picks to move up.

 

Thanks again for your work!

 

I expect that Beane agrees with you and will trade up somewhere to consolidate picks a bit. I personally feel the opposite. There’s so much uncertainty in the draft that I’d rather just accumulate more picks to have more chances at success.

 

But yeah, I fully expect Beane to trade up once or twice in this draft. Or if he doesn’t, I expect him to trade picks in this year’s draft for future picks.

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It's not easy to draw a lot of firm conclusions about players, but there are a few.  For instance, you don't want to draft Devin Singletary with the idea of using him in the passing game. LOL  Kelvin Harmon is another player who has a disturbing drop percentage.  I was not a fan of his to begin with, and this certainly didn't elevate him in my eyes.  

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6 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

It's not easy to draw a lot of firm conclusions about players, but there are a few.  For instance, you don't want to draft Devin Singletary with the idea of using him in the passing game. LOL  Kelvin Harmon is another player who has a disturbing drop percentage.  I was not a fan of his to begin with, and this certainly didn't elevate him in my eyes.  

 

To be fair regarding Harmon, that drop % is based on deep balls, in which the sample size is pretty small. We're talking about 13 total receptions on deep balls, so adding or subtracting one more drop is like a 7-8% swing in either direction. His drop rate in general is 4.7%, which is actually pretty good.

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17 hours ago, ProcessAccepted said:

I don't think Ivory is going to make it. They'll draft someone and keep McCoy and Gore.

I could see us drafting Damien Harris in Round 2 to replace Ivory this year and potentially Gore in 2020 and then Shady in 2021.

Edited by The Jokeman
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