How Much Did The Bills Actually Improve the OL? PFF Rankings 2018 vs. 2019 Comparison

[klos63]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Excellent post! Let's also look at the "OVRL" Madden ratings.

 

Morse 82

Bodine 72

Nsekhe 76

Mills 71

Dawkins 78

Teller 75

Miller 74

Long 73

Ducasse 71

Waddle 70

 

The rest are all below 70 and Boettger is below 60. So, we have a sizeable improvement at C. A smaller improvement at RT and the rest of the FA's is a bunch of guys fighting for a backup job when camp starts. Long was a 78 in 2017 and injured his hand, so we'll see how that works out. Throw in a day 2 and a day 3 OL to compete and this is an OK OL, but nothing special. 3 upgrades would give Shady another 1,000 season and that could help Josh Allen a lot. The one to watch is Long. When he left the Redskins, he was a OVRL 91.

 

My guess is that Nsekhe starts in 2019 and we draft an OL on day 2 and 3. We'll see.

 

As far as receivers go, Jones is a 79. Beasley is 83, but he's 86 if I put him in as a slot receiver. Brown is 80 with 95 speed. Foster 73 with 93 speed. Kroft 77 and Croom 74. K Benjaman is 77, but started 2018 at 84 and Clay is 81.

Kinda wonder why teams bother scouting players when all they have to do is check the Madden ratings.

[H2o]

PFFahahahahaha

[BillyWhiteShows]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t consider it an insult either. Just making an observation and a suggestions 

 

Suggestion ignored.  Not changing a darn thing because you dont like new threads

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Suggestion ignored.  Not changing a darn thing because you dont like new threads

??‍♂️

[DuckyBoys]

I think Morse will make a significant difference.  Nsekhe should be a big upgrade over Mills.  Having a above avg center should help cut down on the errors the guards kept making leaving unblocked defenders.  Still would not pass up a tackle capable of being a day 1 starter in the draft . Keeping Josh Allen clean and re establishing the run game should be the #1 priority this off season.  I think Josh is more than capable of moving the football with the skill guys they have.  Team is not going anywhere with the level of blocking they got last year

[BillyWhiteShows]

7 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

I think Morse will make a significant difference.  Nsekhe should be a big upgrade over Mills.  Having a above avg center should help cut down on the errors the guards kept making leaving unblocked defenders.  Still would not pass up a tackle capable of being a day 1 starter in the draft . Keeping Josh Allen clean and re establishing the run game should be the #1 priority this off season.  I think Josh is more than capable of moving the football with the skill guys they have.  Team is not going anywhere with the level of blocking they got last year

 

Agreed.  We need Bobby Johnson to do what Juan Castillo couldn’t - coach up the bottom of the OL roster.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I wasn't a big fan of the extra money, but I think extending Wood made sense within the structure of their plans. McBeane knew they were going to draft a QB, and having a veteran like Wood at center assisting with calls, protections, etc. is definitively beneficial. They scrambled last offseason and grabbed Bodine who had experience, but failed to perform at a needed level. Fortunately they rectified the problem with the Morse signing unless something unexpected occurs.

 

 

I'm not saying they should have planned to let Wood walk............but at his age and with his injury history there was no reason to extend him a season ahead of time.    He was an older player that wasn't going anywhere.   I'm sure he and his agent were like........"An extension?  Now? Really?  Sure!".     Beane ended up with egg on his face and then trying to get $ back from Wood was an ugly look.

 

Cap carelessness.

 

That might color their decision making with Jerry Hughes.    The difference, IMO, is that Hughes has been underpaid for his entire career as a Bill.    He's a lot more liable to walk.  Still........I wait and let it play out.   He's too old to take for granted that he will stay healthy and I like him motivated by a FA year.

 

Eric  Wood, otoh,  was stealing money for 3 years before Greg Roman came on board and resurrected he and Incognito's careers.   Wood himself thought he might be cut after the 2014 season.    He didn't have any dissatisfaction with his contract the way Hughes likely has as advanced stats continue to show year after year his deal being at a bargain.

[Nihilarian]

When you look at the 2017 offensive line rankings with Glenn, Wood, Incognito it was a top 15 unit and not much changed subbing Dawkins in for an injured Glenn. Still, we all saw how badly Mills/Miller played on that right side at times. (San Diego game)

 

2018 was different for Dawkins without the help of Incognito next to him he took a downturn and graded poorly. The entire line graded as one of the worst in the NFL in almost every category. 12th worst in QB hits given up with 101. 14th worst in QB sacks given up with 41 and I can only imagine a pure pocket QB would have been sacked far more.

 

Stating that what we can't see is how these new players to Buffalo performed in their respective units due to the talent around them. Let's look at Center Mitch Morse for a min, as that grade of 69.5 is low from what I see. The guy has only allowed one hit in his last 21 starts. Bodine graded a 61.6 but allowed 16 pressures on Allen in 10 starts. Not to mention that Morse played in a very explosive complicated offense and he knows how to set protections for the line. No question that his upgraded skill should help the two OGs around him.

 

It looks to me like the Bills signed the best young center on the free agent market. We don't know if the Bills are done with the O line rebuild until after the draft but as of right now I think they greatly improved the unit with just the center. 

 

https://expo.newyorkupstate.com/sports/g66l-2019/03/b971c0cdb50d4/9-thoughts-and-a-grade-on-buffalo-bills-signing-free-agent-c-mitch-morse.html

Edited March 17, 2019 by Nihilarian

[Kelly the Dog]

PFF rankings should be taken with a quarry of salt. 

[Alaska Darin]

The biggest subtraction of this offseason is Juan Castillo.  The most important addition is hopefully Bobby Johnson. 

[VW82]

I disagree with everyone outright dismissing PFF. On what basis? I agree that grading offensive line play can be tough without knowing everyone's responsibility, but that doesn't mean the exercise isn't worth doing. If Bill Belichick was the one grading would you outright dismiss him too because he didn't 100% know all the pre-snap line responsibilities? If you're going to kill the graders, at least tell us how it is that you know they're not qualified.  

 

One of the underrated reasons the line struggled last year is because we downgraded from Taylor to Allen. I suspect Josh's improvement in terms of pre and post snap reads from year one to two will be a big boon for the line. Morse will definitely help with the pre-snap stuff as well.

 

I don't expect there will be a big improvement in run blocking. Morse is just ok in that respect, and none of the other new additions other than maybe Feliciano scream road grader (at least based on their work to date). We'll see. Perhaps our new coach can get everyone on the same page, and they'll at least be a more cohesive unit. 

Edited March 17, 2019 by VW82

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I disagree with everyone outright dismissing PFF. On what basis? I agree that grading offensive line play can be tough without knowing everyone's responsibility, but that doesn't mean the exercise isn't worth doing. If Bill Belichick was the one grading would you outright dismiss him too because he didn't 100% know all the pre-snap line responsibilities? If you're going to kill the graders, at least tell us how it is that you know they're not qualified.  

 

One of the underrated reasons the line struggled last year is because we downgraded from Taylor to Allen. I suspect Josh's improvement in terms of pre and post snap reads from year one to two will be a big boon for the line. Morse will definitely help with the pre-snap stuff as well.

 

I don't expect there will be a big improvement in run blocking. Morse is just ok in that respect, and none of the other new additions scream road grader. Perhaps our new coach can get everyone on the same page, and they'll at least be a more cohesive unit. 

 

PFF's grading begs the question: what are the qualifications of PFF's staff?  Are they ex-coaches, much less ex-NFL coaches?

 

And the biggest reason for the struggles of the OL, besides Juan Castillo, are losing Wood and Incognito and replacing them with far inferior players.  Sure having a rookie QB didn't help, but having those guys and a run game would have taken enormous pressure off Josh.

 

As for the run game, having Brown and Foster outside will prevent CB's and S's from crowding the LOS, allowing more room for the RB's.

[Buffalo Junction]

47 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not saying they should have planned to let Wood walk............but at his age and with his injury history there was no reason to extend him a season ahead of time.    He was an older player that wasn't going anywhere.   I'm sure he and his agent were like........"An extension?  Now? Really?  Sure!".     Beane ended up with egg on his face and then trying to get $ back from Wood was an ugly look.

 

Cap carelessness.

 

That might color their decision making with Jerry Hughes.    The difference, IMO, is that Hughes has been underpaid for his entire career as a Bill.    He's a lot more liable to walk.  Still........I wait and let it play out.   He's too old to take for granted that he will stay healthy and I like him motivated by a FA year.

 

Eric  Wood, otoh,  was stealing money for 3 years before Greg Roman came on board and resurrected he and Incognito's careers.   Wood himself thought he might be cut after the 2014 season.    He didn't have any dissatisfaction with his contract the way Hughes likely has as advanced stats continue to show year after year his deal being at a bargain.

In general I agree, although I don’t really recall any real injuries before the retirement other than the broken leg. I was surprised that they extended Wood, but I could understand the methodology behind the move. 

 

Hughes is interesting because his production over the past few years is a case of horseshoes and hand grenades. I honestly haven’t sat down and watched him individually, but it’s almost anomalous that he can repeatedly get that close without finishing the job. The strange part is that it’s not a single year, but every year since Mario left. How much of that is him vs the rest of the defense I can’t say. Perhaps we should have shipped him to GB when they hired Pettine and we were trading everyone on offense. ?‍♂️

[VW82]

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

PFF's grading begs the question: what are the qualifications of PFF's staff?  Are they ex-coaches, much less ex-NFL coaches?

 

And the biggest reason for the struggles of the OL, besides Juan Castillo, are losing Wood and Incognito and replacing them with far inferior players.  Sure having a rookie QB didn't help, but having those guys and a run game would have taken enormous pressure off Josh.

 

As for the run game, having Brown and Foster outside will prevent CB's and S's from crowding the LOS, allowing more room for the RB's.

 

PFF is the arguably the most popular independent NFL grading service out there. Their entire business rests on the fact that they're doing at least a serviceable job grading players, if not a good to very good job. It begs the question, why would we assume they would risk their entire business on hiring people who aren't qualified?

 

Yes, our OL personnel sucked last year. I wasn't suggesting that going from Tyrod to Josh was a bigger impediment to good line play than the loss of Richie and EWood. But it did make an impact IMO.

 

I don't think Foster and Brown will have much of an impact on our run game. We had Foster last year and couldn't run the ball. Perhaps Antonio Brown would have had that effect. I expect we'll try to be a play action team again, which means we'll use the run game to set up the pass, not vice versa. We're going to have to prove that we can consistently beat people deep before they stop putting safeties in the box. 

Edited March 17, 2019 by VW82

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, VW82 said:

PFF is the arguably the most popular independent NFL grading service out there. Their entire business rests on the fact that they're doing at least a serviceable job grading players, if not a good to very good job. It begs the question, why would assume they would risk their entire business on hiring people who aren't qualified?

 

Yes, our OL personnel sucked last year. I wasn't suggesting that going to Tyrod to Josh was a bigger impediment to good line play than the loss of Richie and EWood. But it did make an impact IMO.

 

I don't think Foster and Brown will have much of an impact on our run game. We had Foster last year and couldn't run the ball. Perhaps Antonio Brown would have had that effect. I expect we'll try to be a play action team again, which means we'll use the run game to set up the pass, not vice versa. We're going to have to prove that we can consistently beat people deep before they stop putting safeties in the box. 

 

They didn't have Brown last year, which is the point.  Teams won't be able to put either CB on the LOS what with their speed and the S's will have to play off for fear of being burned, as both guys have shown an ability to beat teams over the top.  Then there's Beasley working underneath drawing coverage.

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

They didn't have Brown last year, which is the point.  Teams won't be able to put either CB on the LOS what with their speed and the S's will have to play off for fear of being burned, as both guys have shown an ability to beat teams over the top.  Then there's Beasley working underneath drawing coverage.

Agreed. And with that combination a big play TE makes this offense, Josh and Shady quite dangerous. 

[VW82]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

They didn't have Brown last year, which is the point.  Teams won't be able to put either CB on the LOS what with their speed and the S's will have to play off for fear of being burned, as both guys have shown an ability to beat teams over the top.  Then there's Beasley working underneath drawing coverage.

 

Do you think we'll play Brown and Foster much together? I kind of think Foster winds up being Brown's back up, and we see someone like Zay or Duke opposite him.

 

I love the Beasley addition, and hopefully he'll loosen things up for us. It'll be nice to see a receiver group that can consistently get open for a change so Josh isn't leading the league in snap to throw time again.

 

I'm going to have to see the run game working to believe it though. Our biggest threat last year was Josh scrambling. Teams will likely spy him in the box which adds an extra defender on run plays until we can prove that we can beat them in other ways. We should have a much better shot at doing that this year though. Let's see what we do at the draft.  

[Doc]

Just now, VW82 said:

Do you think we'll play Brown and Foster much together? I kind of think Foster winds up being Brown's back up, and we see someone like Zay or Duke opposite him.

 

I love the Beasley addition, and hopefully he'll loosen things up for us. It'll be nice to see a receiver group that can consistently get open for a change so Josh isn't leading the league in snap to throw time again.

 

I'm going to have to see the run game working to believe it though. Our biggest threat last year was Josh scrambling. Teams will likely spy him in the box which adds an extra defender on run plays until we can prove that we can beat them in other ways. We should have a much better shot at doing that this year though. Let's see what we do at the draft.  

 

Why would you not start Foster opposite Brown, especially over Zay or Duke?  Foster is already a better player than Zay and Duke isn't even assured to make the team. 

 

And I see Beasley as a great outlet receiver should teams look to blitz.  Shady and Kroft as well.

 

[VW82]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Why would you not start Foster opposite Brown, especially over Zay or Duke?  Foster is already a better player than Zay and Duke isn't even assured to make the team. 

 

And I see Beasley as a great outlet receiver should teams look to blitz.  Shady and Kroft as well.

 

 

Because neither of them have the all around games you'd like to see from a number one guy. It can't just be about running verticals. You need guys out there who can get open underneath or on intermediate routes, receivers who are effective blockers for WR screens or pick plays, etc. If you just do the same things over and over again the defense will sit on what you do well and take it away. Having said that, it's possible we do start both though I feel like that will say more about what we don't have in Duke, Zay, etc., than anything else. 

 

Agree about Beasley and Shady being good outlets. Haven't seen much of Kroft yet so I'll reserve judgement. Let's hope Josh comes into camp having fixed his issues with short throws.

Edited March 17, 2019 by VW82

[Green Lightning]

9 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Theres no narrative.  Just pointing out that if you take any stock in the PFF ratings, the moves didn’t do a it to improve the line on paper.

 I'll trust Beane over PFF.