thebandit27 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 minute ago, billspro said: He should have a similar grade as some of the top Dline. A good TE would have more value than a DT imo. Our success is all about developing Allen. There will be some really good DTs like Tillery available in round 2. I don’t think there will be a huge drop off in the DT talent from pick 9 to our second round pick. Good chance all three of the top TEs are gone though. Sorry, but I just don't see how that's true. If you look at the numbers, among pass rushers, there were 22 players with 10 or more sacks (I chose 10 because that's generally considered the break point between good and great pass rushers)...and 6 of those were DTs (Donald, Jones, Buckner, Cox, Reed, and Atkins)--3 of them were not only first-round picks, but also the first DT off the board. 2 of the others were 2nd round picks. Contrast that with receiving yards, where 20 players eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark (again, the generally-considered break point between good and great pass-catchers). You'll notice only 3 TEs show up there (Kittle, Kelce, Ertz)--none of them were first-round picks; in fact, only Ertz was higher than a 3rd rounder. There's no doubt in my mind that a good TE will add a lot to the offense, but in comparison to a great pass-rushing DT it'd be a pebble on a mountain. If I have my choice of where to have an elite talent on my team, the hierarchy would look something like this: QB EDGE rusher Interior pass rusher CB WR OT Everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Magnum Force said: Alpha...you and me both. I know just like me, you were in the DK camp. Now I am starting to move in the direction of TJ also. Yeah, I was singing DK praises all off season and kept telling people he was going to blow up at the combine. Funny though, I am thinking now it could be TJ before it would be DK despite the fact Beane has clearly made attempts to look at acquiring some stud WR's already. The main reason for that is I wonder how much DK's low agility scores will impact how Beane and McD see him. I won't rule DK out though, I mean again Beane clearly is looking for big time weapons for Allen and DK has big time potential, more than any other WR in the draft. With the signing of Cole and Brown, it actually makes taking DK a little easier because now you have some other guys to take pressure off DK while they work on developing his route tree more and have the underneath weapons to use DK has that big downfield threat. All that being said, I think Beane and Daboll are going to have a high value on a dynamic TE too and if I had to guess right now, I think Hockenson may be higher on their board than Metcalf, especially with the depth at WR in this draft. But would not surprise me one bit if they drafted Metcalf in the first. 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: 8 TEs went before Kittle. Eifert went before Ertz. 4 TEs picked before Kelce. In 2012, Colby Fleener was picked at #34 while Dwayne Allen was picked at #64 BY THE SAME TEAM...and neither one ended up being spectacular. Allen is still playing and Fleener is out of football. It's a total crapshoot drafting TEs imo. Terrible value in the first round, let alone top 10. Hard pass. that can be said about every position though Edited March 15, 2019 by Alphadawg7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 54 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said: You can trade back and get him I’m seeing more and more mocks where him and Fant both go in the top 15. For whatever that’s worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkep32 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 45 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Best argument I have is this: when was the last time that a top-10 TE went on to have a great career? Matter of fact, when was the last time that a 1st-round TE went on to have a great career? Moreover, who are the best TEs in football in the last half-decade? How many of them were 1st-round picks, let alone top-10 picks? 2017: oj howard, evan engram, David njoku all 1st round...i stated this in another thread but TE usually take 2 or 3 years to get acclimated to the NFL. They need to know the entire online blocking scheme/concepts and run WR route tree. I'm an Iowa Hawkeye fan I love both TE it's just to much for a 9th pick. Evan engram was 1st rookie TE in 15 years to top 600 yards and got 722. Love to trade back and get hock but otherwise maybe fant at 40 or georia kid i keep forgetting his name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suorangefan4 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: 8 TEs went before Kittle. Eifert went before Ertz. 4 TEs picked before Kelce. In 2012, Colby Fleener was picked at #34 while Dwayne Allen was picked at #64 BY THE SAME TEAM...and neither one ended up being spectacular. Allen is still playing and Fleener is out of football. It's a total crapshoot drafting TEs imo. Terrible value in the first round, let alone top 10. Hard pass. You could do the same thing for any position. Hockensen would improve both our blocking and pass catching. Iowa is good at developing tight ends so Hockenson looks like a can't miss type player. Edited March 15, 2019 by suorangefan4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Or you could pay Jared Cook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBillsWestCoast Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Not my favorite #9 pick, but definitely an option as TE is a QB's best friend. Any top 10 pick needs to be a rare talent or a big man (D or O Line), however I would not be disappointed in TJ as he may be the best Bills TE prospect I recall. I believe that a trade down serves us best. Don't be surprised if we end up with 2 first round picks again via trades. We may trade back and also up from #2. We still need talent. TE's will go on a run, so find the spot. I think it may be GB at pick #12? I like the Giants pick at #17. Trade back and take best available player. If TJ is there grab him, then trade up from 2nd round back into round 1 to grab any of our many other needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Would consider Oliver - 9 Risner - 2nd round Then using later picks to move into the 2nd and 3rd rounds Fant - 2nd round Running Back - 3rd round Wide Receiver - 3rd round Risner might actually start at RT.....but it would be more likely TY would at least start the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigantall Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 (edited) I have a very good buddie of mine who is a alumni of Iowa he says Fant is a much better player than TJ Edited March 15, 2019 by Bigantall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, bkep32 said: 2017: oj howard, evan engram, David njoku all 1st round...i stated this in another thread but TE usually take 2 or 3 years to get acclimated to the NFL. They need to know the entire online blocking scheme/concepts and run WR route tree. I'm an Iowa Hawkeye fan I love both TE it's just to much for a 9th pick. Evan engram was 1st rookie TE in 15 years to top 600 yards and got 722. Love to trade back and get hock but otherwise maybe fant at 40 or georia kid i keep forgetting his name. None of those guys has had a great season, let alone look like they're going to have a great career. Moreover, not a single one of them looks worthy of having been a first-round pick IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJB Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 I'll continue to say it. Hockenson is the only player at 9 who improves the offence and oline with one pick 3 minutes ago, Bigantall said: I have a very good buddie of mine who is a alumni of Iowa he says Fant is a much better player than TJ Then your buddy is evaluating them based off potential fantasy football view. What Hockenson does in the run game, pass blocking is elite and nobody in this draft even comes close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Mike in Syracuse said: I can't stop thinking that I want the Bills to draft Hock at the 9th spot. I know that's high for a TE but what a fantastic offensive addition he'd be for our young QB. i hope so but i think we go Dline, especially when their is good quality TEs in the draft like, Irv Smith, Jace Sternberger and Isaac Nauta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Sorry, but I just don't see how that's true. If you look at the numbers, among pass rushers, there were 22 players with 10 or more sacks (I chose 10 because that's generally considered the break point between good and great pass rushers)...and 6 of those were DTs (Donald, Jones, Buckner, Cox, Reed, and Atkins)--3 of them were not only first-round picks, but also the first DT off the board. 2 of the others were 2nd round picks. Contrast that with receiving yards, where 20 players eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark (again, the generally-considered break point between good and great pass-catchers). You'll notice only 3 TEs show up there (Kittle, Kelce, Ertz)--none of them were first-round picks; in fact, only Ertz was higher than a 3rd rounder. There's no doubt in my mind that a good TE will add a lot to the offense, but in comparison to a great pass-rushing DT it'd be a pebble on a mountain. If I have my choice of where to have an elite talent on my team, the hierarchy would look something like this: QB EDGE rusher Interior pass rusher CB WR OT Everything else There are definitely lots of ways to build a team and I know you know football, you have tons of good takes on here. I would love to have interior pass rush but you don’t need it to build a good defence. I don’t believe any of those guys played on a top 5 D last year. The Bills were ranked 2nd with very little interior pash rush last year. Pats won the Super Bowl with pretty basic DTs. Almost all of the playoff teams have a good TE. I value offence much higher than defence though and I know there are other ways to build a championship team. My positional rankings would be: QB OT CB C Edge TE LB G DT WR S RB Although, I think all positions are important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Just now, suorangefan4 said: You could do the same thing for any position. Hockensen would improve both our blocking and pass catching. Iowa is good at developing tight ends so Hockenson looks like a can't miss type player. 2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: that can be said about every position though True, the point being that TE is a position of relative unimportance to your team's offensive production overall, so whereas a QB or DE impacts the game in such a way that missing on those positions in the first round is worth the risk, TE does not and is not. For example- best TE in the game by far was Kittle: he played in an average offense. Kelce is a great TE in a great offense, but Jared Cook was a good TE in a bad one. Ertz is a good TE in a mediocre offense. Gerald Everett is a below average TE in a great offense. Watson is an average/below average TE in a very good offense. Evan Engram and Jordan Reed, two guys I like and think are above average/good TEs, played in middling to bad offenses respectively (although both had injury issues this season). I see no correlation between the quality of your tight end and the quality of your offense, so unlike other positions where the risk of missing on your pick is outweighed by the value they bring to their unit (QB, DE, CB, DT, maaaybe LB/OT) the value is not there in the first round for tight ends imo. Certainly not with a top 10 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideNine Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 44 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: Croom was looking pretty decent last year until the injury. I keep forgetting about him. Croom fits that slot TE roll. Don't see him as the 3 down option. Kroft is serviceable and a better blocker. I still see room for one guy to groom to replace and/or backup the position, but my gut tells me that would be a later round move for the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CEN-CAL17 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said: You can trade back and get him Really cause there are a lot of analysts that think he may go 7 to Jax or 8 to Detroit.... We have Shady under contract for 1 more year, Gore for 1 year. Josh Jacobs May be BPA for many reasons. #1 RB, knows the system, 5’11” 220lbs, great hands, quick, physical, low wear and tear, Look how Barkley and Kamara have helped those teams the last 2 years. Can we trust Shady and Gore to stay healthy? Right now, I’m thinking TJ, Jacobs, OT, DE..... Oliver would be hard to pass up as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: True, the point being that TE is a position of relative unimportance to your team's offensive production overall, so whereas a QB or DE impacts the game in such a way that missing on those positions in the first round is worth the risk, TE does not and is not. For example- best TE in the game by far was Kittle: he played in an average offense. Kelce is a great TE in a great offense, but Jared Cook was a good TE in a bad one. Ertz is a good TE in a mediocre offense. Gerald Everett is a below average TE in a great offense. Watson is an average/below average TE in a very good offense. Evan Engram and Jordan Reed, two guys I like and think are above average/good TEs, played in middling to bad offenses respectively (although both had injury issues this season). I see no correlation between the quality of your tight end and the quality of your offense, so unlike other positions where the risk of missing on your pick is outweighed by the value they bring to their unit (QB, DE, CB, DT, maaaybe LB/OT) the value is not there in the first round for tight ends imo. Certainly not with a top 10 pick. No disrespect, but you are severely under estimating the value of some of those guys to their teams. Its not really fair to put the teams situation on the back of the TE and say the TE isnt important because their teams didnt win more. No way Mahomes has remotely as good a year without Kelce, and it was an EDGE rusher bone head play for KC that cost them a SB birth, not Kelce. Ertz was a HUGE reason the Eagles had a great year and went on to win the SB still even after losing their starting QB. Pats have managed to win SB's with Gronk being their most talented receiving weapon. I can name a bunch of talented pass rushers on bad teams too, doesn't devalue the pass rusher. I can name elite corners on bad teams. I can name elite QBs on bad teams. I can name elite OL on bad teams. I can name elite RB's on bad teams. And so on and so on. None of that devalues what a given player can be to a team though. Ravens do not win the SB with Trent Dilfer without having Shannon Sharp for instance. Does that mean every team would win the SB with Shannon Sharp on its roster...not at all. Means he was an incredibly valuable piece to that team and how it was built. Chiefs do not get within one play of the SB had Kelce not been on that roster. He is was almost unguardable and opened up the passing game for Mahomes, the other receivers, and even the RBs. You cant cover everyone. Eagles offense would be below average without Ertz, yet they won the SB with a journeyman QB a little over a year ago. TE can be a young QB's best friend, especially if they are a receiving weapon and a quality blocker. Especially in todays NFL. The TE position is one that has become much more valuable over the last 5 years and its not going away anytime soon. Edited March 15, 2019 by Alphadawg7 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KauaiBuffaloSports Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bigantall said: I have a very good buddie of mine who is a alumni of Iowa he says Fant is a much better player than TJ I would not be upset if we went with Hock at 9 but I am weary. TJ rose up the boards after the combine because of his workout times which always scares me. Fant is the player that I would prefer because he has proven himself on the field. If DK and TJ are both examples of guys who shoot up the board because of their athleticism, not their production on the field. Give me a DL at 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magnum Force Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 This is a tough one...because when I look at Hockenson…..I am envisioning Gronk….even his nickname will be similar Hock....but there have been a lot of TE busts taken in the 1st round and I think of Jeremey Shockey as the one big one. This draft has me all over the place in who I want at 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suorangefan4 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, KauaiBuffaloSports said: I would not be upset if we went with Hock at 9 but I am weary. TJ rose up the boards after the combine because of his workout times which always scares me. Fant is the player that I would prefer because he has proven himself on the field. If DK and TJ are both examples of guys who shoot up the board because of their athleticism, not their production on the field. Give me a DL at 9 Hockenson had better production than Fant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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