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Why are the Browns the sexy pick?


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The Browns did pretty well despite having Hue Jackson and then Gregg Williams as HC's.

 

IIRC their Kicker also missed a few kicks that would've resulted in wins.

 

With the Bengals rebuilding, the Steelers regressing and the Ravens treading water, the Browns appear to be much the best in the AFC North.

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7 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

They very well may do that... they very well may not. 1 game better than the Bills last year, and the bills had that killer opening stretch last year. 

 

All i I am saying g is that from a betting angle, there is no edge to betting them at 1-1 money. Just always remember when the public things zig, better to zag on a wager. And the public LOVES the Brownies right now. 

 

As a a matter of fact, I will book your bet at even money Browns don’t win the division up to $100 if you are going to bet it.   I don’t love it either way, but I will just take the opposite of the public right now, and this way we don’t pay a vig??

How bout Pats winning division?  Would you bet against that?  or just against sexy picks?  Just wondering who you would bet to win that division if not the Brown Dawgs?

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48 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

How bout Pats winning division?  Would you bet against that?  or just against sexy picks?  Just wondering who you would bet to win that division if not the Brown Dawgs?

He's not saying the Browns WON'T win the division. He's saying the value is gone. LJax COULD be much better than the board believes and the Ravens could finish ahead of the Browns. Big Ben COULD have a huge season with JuJu and they COULD be better off without AB and LB creating distractions. Cincy. I doubt it, but their HC COULD be some kind of genius.

 

I believe the Browns will win that division, but it's far from a lock. Betting wise, the current reward is not worth the risk.

 

The Pats may represent some value. You put up 400 to win 100, so you're gonna have to put up a ton of money to make money. What if Brady gets hurt or the dynasty ends with a thud? There's a reason books/bookies exist and it isn't to hand out free money.

Edited by LSHMEAB
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11 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

..no disrespect, but let them have the limelight as the formidable "new kid on the block" while we quietly go about business "under the radar".....kinda like a "Stormin' Norman Schwarzkopf" sneak attack myself....

Josh Allen/ Stealth Bomber...

 

 

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12 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

They very well may do that... they very well may not. 1 game better than the Bills last year, and the bills had that killer opening stretch last year. 

 

The Browns SoS last year was 5th hardest, while Buffalo was 18th. 

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10 hours ago, Ga boy said:

How bout Pats winning division?  Would you bet against that?  or just against sexy picks?  Just wondering who you would bet to win that division if not the Brown Dawgs?

As I mentioned, I don’t like any of the bets on that division. I Think Cleveland will most likely win, but not enough to only get even money. If I was getting 3-1, maybe even 2-1, then the Browns get attractive  to lay actual money.  

 

But as I said up thread, if you are going to bet anything on it, I  am more than happy to play the book. I am not saying you are wrong, just that I think even money is a bit off 

 

Same as how I think the Bills go over 6 1/2 wins, but at -170 I ain’t coming close to that bet. 

5 hours ago, cle23 said:

 

The Browns SoS last year was 5th hardest, while Buffalo was 18th. 

Could be, and I am way to lazy to look it up. But think the Bills opened up 6 out of 9 against eventual playoff teams, and 5 out of first 7 on the road. It was a brutal way to start a season, especially with a rookie QB. 

 

Bills went 4-3 down the stretch when they hit the easier part of the schedule. 

 

And  the Browns have that type of schedule this year. On paper, Brutal up front eases up after week 9. They go 6-2 in the first half, they may compete for home field. 

 

They go 3-5, pressure in the room could .. again could, be something a rookie coach does not know how to handle. 

Edited by plenzmd1
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5 hours ago, cle23 said:

 

The Browns SoS last year was 5th hardest, while Buffalo was 18th. 

BTW, where did you find that stat..might be useful in some research I am doing ?

 

This way i don't have to manually do it.

 

Thx in advance.

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33 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Facts are irrelevant to homerism.

have you read any of my responses? Show me anywhere in there where my logic on not betting the Browns at even money is based in Bills homerism???

 

For that matter, please show me where the "fact" that the SOS at the end of the year was in "fact" what was stated. 

 

I saw those rankings as preseason rankings based on 2017 records... useless stat. 

 

The best i can find for end of season is here..a real SOS indicater..

 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcsosag.html

 

That has the Browns 6th, and the Bills 9th...

 

I am hoping he can point me in the right direction , as i cannot find end of season real SOS outside of DVOA rankings..and that could be a useful stat deciding on actual real money wagers

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1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

have you read any of my responses? Show me anywhere in there where my logic on not betting the Browns at even money is based in Bills homerism???

 

For that matter, please show me where the "fact" that the SOS at the end of the year was in "fact" what was stated. 

 

I saw those rankings as preseason rankings based on 2017 records... useless stat. 

 

I am hoping he can point me in the right direction there, as i cannot find end of season real SOS outside of DVOA rankings..and that could be a useful stat deciding on actual real money wagers

 

It wasn't aimed at you or what you posted.   It was a general statement in response to the post saying that the Browns had a tougher SOS than the Bills because many posters on TSW like to spin scenarios that make the Bills look good when those scenarios aren't supported by facts ... and sometimes just the opposite.

 

I understand your reasoning about the Browns.  Yours is a very different rationale than the simple minded dismissal of predictions that the Browns could be a very good or excellent team simply because  the Bills are the only team allowed to make a sudden leap from bottom feeder to SB contender ... at least in the minds of some homers on TSW. 

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