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Here is a new method that the Bills are doing well


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Buffalo dumped a lot of players and built up a lot of cap money.  Now they are pulling in a lot of free agents like crazy.  I think this is the story- its obvious once it is stated but I haven't seen it explicitly presented........  

 

[1]  There are tons of college players in the draft but it is a crapshoot in most cases (outside of the first 16 or so picks) to see if those skills and measurables will work out in the NFL

    (a) It is uncertain how they will play in the future, when faced with a constant level of higher level competition. What happens when everybody is as fast as you and as strong as you?   Some are unable to develop further, so that they can compete with the faster, more physical game.

    (b) It is uncertain how the young men will change when faced with dazzling success (getting drafted) and more money then they have ever seen.  Drugs?  Women?  Fast times?  Ego and drama queens?  Some of these people crash and burn.

 

[2]  In most positions, it takes time to develop into a pro player.

    (a)  In some positions, the player is on his own island and much of the game they need to bring is already there.  Kickers and punters, of course.  Wide receivers may have a more complicated route tree to learn, but they are running by themselves, and can be put into the game just to run certain plays.  They do learn to make adjustments, but they have been adjusting to their QB since high school.  Edge rushers  rush the QB first  (which is 70% ? of their assignement) and then react to a run play.

   (b)  In other positions, such as offensive line, there are a lot of nuances that take 2-4 years in the pro's to learn.    (For example, see the decisions made by Morse in https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/3/12/18261187/all-22-buffalo-bills-free-agent-center-mitch-morse-2019-nfl-free-agency )

 

[3]   Most of the players on the team are NOT drafted in the first round, as nearly sure fire-bets, but come from the 2nd to the 5th round.  (53 players on the team and twoe first&second  round draft picks a year).   What is the best way to sort thu all the uncertainties in the young players and find the "keepers"?

 

[4]  What I think the Bills are doing right now are two related things.  

    (a)   They are using the other teams development players,   players who have been shifted thu the risks above, as a developement minor league.   Regardless of where the player was drafted, if he got thu his rookie contract and is still in the NFL, he is a hell of a lot better bet to contribute than a late 1st or 2nd round pick.  The training and rookie mistakes are over.  He has proven that he can play with the big dogs and keep his head on straight. The Bills can be careful and not just take anybody.  The are looking for a guy who is starting calibre and is almost ready to become a starter.  The idea profile is somebody who was blocked from being a starter by having better veterans higher up on the depth chart, but is just about ready to break in as a starter themselves.......  It takes a good bit of smarts and investigation to identify these players and, looking at the profiles of the FA they have brought in, it looks like they have done a good job...........

    (b)  The second thing that they are doing is also filling some holes with some good veterans who have a year or two left in the tank.  They get short 1-3 year contracts, front loaded, and will give good performance until they can be replaced by future draft picks.

 

[5]  What does this mean for the 2019 draft?  

      I think the strategy is to use the top of the draft to get two really stud players each year. (Allen and Edmunds).  Not exactly Best Player Available, but rather player with a ceiling to be a HOF type player.  Those guys are the ones that win superbowls for you.  This may involve trading up the 2nd round pick to get the guy with the super-high ceiling.   The rest of the draft can be used for BPA, since the combination of young, but seasoned  ready-to-be-starters and some old good gap fillers fills out the rest of the roster.   They will have no problem, ignoring "positions of need" and might even highly draft players where we think they are already set.  DT, OT?

 

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They certainly got some "under the radar" Pickups for the OL with the exception of Morse (good choice for a position of need).  I agree that all these pickups already have a skill level not likely to be found in draft, so I'm all for it.  I also like that all these pickups look like they have something to prove and want to get better.  Bills are giving them that opportunity.  Bills may never be the destination of choice for superstar talented players who will command a huge investment but they can be a great spot to pick up players that can produce at a high level if given the opportunity.  Get your impact players in the draft.  

I like the direction the team appears to be going.

Thanks for the writeup.

Edited by richardb1952
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There's nothing new about it.

 

Yeah, they're using other teams to develop guys. Teams have been doing that since before there were facemasks. Trading and picking up guys other teams don't want to pay isn't new. It's as old as sports.

 

Your first point seems to de-value the draft. That's the absolute last thing they want to do. They want to build their team with the draft. It's where they will get the overwhelming majority of their core guys. They'll draft them and that way they can teach and develop them from minute one

 

Get two studs each year in the draft? That's ridiculous. It's just a start. They want four or five contributors each year from the draft or UDFAs and the more studs the better. Last year isn't the year you should look at to see how they'll attack the draft. Last year was special, a year when they traded away a ton of guys to develop the draft capital to pick a QB. And yeah they got Edmunds as well, but they wouldn't have been able to get him if they'd traded up to #5 as they'd planned to do before Denver found that their guy was still available there. They aren't going to have that much draft capital available most years. 2017 is probably a better example of what they're likely to be doing, though maybe it'd be safer to say that we haven't seen an ordinary year of their drafting yet. In 2017 they were already collecting trade bait to acquire their QB and they traded back. Tre White wasn't seen - at the time - as a guy with HOF potential. They picked him because he was the BPA.

 

I like what they're doing. An awful lot.

 

But it's the opposite of new. It's the template that most of the smart and consistently successful teams in the league have used for decades. It's the same template used by teams like the Pats, Ravens, Steelers, Giants and Packers. The pillars these teams use are these:

 

1) Build through the draft

2) Don't get in cap trouble

3) Because you aren't in cap trouble, re-sign your core players to second contracts

4) Fill in the gaps with free agents and trades, but don't bring in the really high-budget guys more than once every four or five years. Do this mostly with low- and medium-priced FAs.

5) Use FA to fill in the obvious gaps and holes so that you can draft for need.

6) Before anything else ... do what's necessary to get yourself a QB, even if it requires a rebuild.

 

There are a few more, but this is the path the Bills are following, and it's the smartest way.

 

What it isn't ... is new. It's old. But not easy. So far they appear to be doing it right, though they still have a lot to prove.

Edited by Thurman#1
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Well, I agree that there is not very much new under the sun.  I guess that Rembrandt didn't do anything new or special because people used brushes and colors before he did. My post was not that any of these good things were brand new, but rather that the combination of things and the overall plan is what is new. Sorry to disagree.  I think that picking up 2 interior linemen, a tackle, a tight end, a wide receiver and a cornerback  in TWO DAYS, all of who fit the "end of rookie contract backup with a higher ceiling" is a new thing. (Could you show me another team who picked up 6 such players in two days?).  This, combined with the deliberate stashing of cap money to fund it, does look to look like a deliberate plan.   There were alternatives.  Many people were expecting the Bills to go after a few big splash, highest dollar players, rather then emphasizing under-the-radar guys who were broken in in the NFL and have possible upside..............  As to your suggestion that we should not bother with getting 2 studs in the draft, but rather should get 4 or 5-  that is a great idea, but it is hard to do.

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Check out what the other teams have been doing in FA.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001021893/article/2019-nfl-free-agency-notable-freeagent-signings-for-each-team

 

I don't know how exact this list is or how up to the minute. If I can count on my fingers okay, then I see the following number of FA's signings. (I am not counting re-signing of FA's with their original team, nor franchise tag players)

 

FA signings.........number of teams with this number

============================================

0.................5                 including the Pats

1................14

2................6

3................3

4...............4

 

 

Bills list 7 players  on the list which doesn't include OL Long and Feliciano.

It is very likely that the Bills will have  a new starting TE, OT, OG, C, OG this year.  That is, if they don't also pick an OT in the first or second round...... Sounds different to me !!

Edited by maryland-bills-fan
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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

There's nothing new 

BLAHBLAHBLAH

 

I like what they're doing. An awful lot.

 

BLAHBLAHBLAH

 

What it isn't ... is new. It's old. But not easy. So far they appear to be doing it right, though they still have a lot to prove.

 

Its new for the Bills and the fans!

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I don't agree with much of this at all!

 

I think their strategy was and still is build thru  the draft.  But does take 2 to 3 years of drafts to re-build the roster, then add 1 to 2 years for the players to develop.  What do you do in the mean time, sign FA to SHORT contracts to hold you over until you draft their eventual replacements.  Maybe a few work out better than expected and become keepers in not can cut most in two seasons with low cap hit.

 

Also think the Bills will either stay at 9 or trade down , not up.

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Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I don't agree with much of this at all!

 

I think their strategy was and still is build thru  the draft.  But does take 2 to 3 years of drafts to re-build the roster, then add 1 to 2 years for the players to develop.  What do you do in the mean time, sign FA to SHORT contracts to hold you over until you draft their eventual replacements.  Maybe a few work out better than expected and become keepers in not can cut most in two seasons with low cap hit.

 

Also think the Bills will either stay at 9 or trade down , not up.

Of course they will use all their draft picks.  But you have to consider how many starters you can expect to get from the draft and undrafted college players.   4 a year is probably about right.  You have 11 players on offense and 11 on defense.  That is 22.   5 + years to stock those 22 positions- if nobody leaves or gets injured.  I would be interested to see somebody work out for each team, how many of their players were drafted by that same team.  I bet it is 25% or less.

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4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

[1]  There are tons of college players in the draft but it is a crapshoot in most cases (outside of the first 16 or so picks) to see if those skills and measurables will work out in the NFL

 

Don' think you can assume top 16 picks like this ... under your scenario .. there would be no Kyle Williams or Matt Milano (5th round picks) ... or the assumption players like Mike Williams, Aaron Maybin, CJ Spiller, (top 16 picks by the Bills in the past) can't miss

 

4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I think the strategy is to use the top of the draft to get two really stud players each year. (Allen and Edmunds).  Not exactly Best Player Available, but rather player with a ceiling to be a HOF type player.  Those guys are the ones that win superbowls for you.  This may involve trading up the 2nd round pick to get the guy with the super-high ceiling. 

 

This hasn't worked yet for Zay Jones (though I'm rooting for him) as my daughter attends ECU and we saw him play quite a bit.

 

Bottom line .. it's a combination ... I like what Beane is doing in Free Agency and I look just as much forward to what we do in the draft .. the draft class from 2018 and UDFA's (Wallace and Foster) show the talent evaluation of this team of college players ... TRUST THE PROCESS

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1 minute ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

Don' think you can assume top 16 picks like this ... under your scenario .. there would be no Kyle Williams or Matt Milano (5th round picks) ... or the assumption players like Mike Williams, Aaron Maybin, CJ Spiller, (top 16 picks by the Bills in the past) can't miss

 

 

This hasn't worked yet for Zay Jones (though I'm rooting for him) as my daughter attends ECU and we saw him play quite a bit.

 

Bottom line .. it's a combination ... I like what Beane is doing in Free Agency and I look just as much forward to what we do in the draft .. the draft class from 2018 and UDFA's (Wallace and Foster) show the talent evaluation of this team of college players ... TRUST THE PROCESS

I don't mean that you can't get really good or even HOF players from the bottom of the draft- it is just that it is less likely.   "Craps" (at least when I was younger) was played this way.   People bet on PASS or NO PASS.  Roll and bounce the dice.  If it is a 7 or 11 (baby needs shoes), the PASS bets win, If it is snakeeyes (1 & 1) or boxcars (6 & 6) No PASS wins.  Any other result and that die roll number becomes the POINT.    Continue rolling. IF you roll the point before rolling a 7, PASS wins, IF you roll a 7 then the NO PASS wins.     ........  You worry about what the POINT value is because it determines how likely you are to win or lose. 

7= 17% chance of rolling.   2= 3%    3= 6%   4= 8%    5= 11%   6=14%     7= 17% and then 14%, 11%, 8%, 6% and 3%.    If you are on PASS and the POINT is "2" you are almost SOL because   each roll has a 17% chance of being a "7" but only a 3% chance of being a "2".     The lower draft rounds have low numbers for the "POINT" and are less likely to succeed.

 

Another way to look at it is to look up the "DRAFT VALUE CHARTS" and see how the value plummets for the later rounds.

 

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48 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Of course they will use all their draft picks.  But you have to consider how many starters you can expect to get from the draft and undrafted college players.   4 a year is probably about right.  You have 11 players on offense and 11 on defense.  That is 22.   5 + years to stock those 22 positions- if nobody leaves or gets injured.  I would be interested to see somebody work out for each team, how many of their players were drafted by that same team.  I bet it is 25% or less.

 

Yeah so that's why he signing all the FA this season as he has the money and needs short term solutions to needs as you mentioned draft takes a few years.  Assuming things are successful and Beane is still around in another 3 years, likely see much  less FA and more relying on the draft. 

 

An interesting comparison  would be NE who constantly signs new players every year and Pitt who more relies  on the draft, what their percentages are.

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6 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

B

[4]  What I think the Bills are doing right now are two related things.  

    (a)  ..... The are looking for a guy who is starting calibre and is almost ready to become a starter.  The idea profile is somebody who was blocked from being a starter by having better veterans higher up on the depth chart, but is just about ready to break in as a starter themselves.......  It takes a good bit of smarts and investigation to identify these players and, looking at the profiles of the FA they have brought in, it looks like they have done a good job...........

 

 

 

I noticed this on a couple of the signings.  Mid priced contracts hoping to find a gem like Poyer.  I like it.

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6 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

I think we added a bunch of NFL players.  Upgraded the talent of the roster and depth.  I'm not convinced we added any difference maker and I don't believe this is a sustainable model, especially once you are paying Allen / White etc.

 

I think Morse will be a huge difference maker on the oline (provided he stays healthy, but that can be said of all NFL players). I'm talking HUGE difference. 

 

Generally I agree with your post. We upgraded talent and depth, probably no difference makers outside of Morse (Brown could be a game changer in the deep ball game I guess). I am super pleased with free agency, about as good as I could have wished for. There werent any real difference makers out there available, those are found in the draft almost exclusively. 

 

The "spend a lot" in free agency model is not sustainable, that is true. I know that is not the model Beane is going for, but we had a lot of holes this year and a lot of money, so he locked up some short term contracts of talent/depth while we had the money and at the same time not hurting ourselves going forward cap wise. As has been mentioned countless times, Beane wants to build through the draft and retain our own talent, nothing done in the past 48 hours has changed that. In future years (when we HAVE the talent and depth) I would look for us to be much less active in FA. 

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2 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I think Morse will be a huge difference maker on the oline (provided he stays healthy, but that can be said of all NFL players). I'm talking HUGE difference. 

 

Generally I agree with your post. We upgraded talent and depth, probably no difference makers outside of Morse (Brown could be a game changer in the deep ball game I guess). I am super pleased with free agency, about as good as I could have wished for. There werent any real difference makers out there available, those are found in the draft almost exclusively. 

 

The "spend a lot" in free agency model is not sustainable, that is true. I know that is not the model Beane is going for, but we had a lot of holes this year and a lot of money, so he locked up some short term contracts of talent/depth while we had the money and at the same time not hurting ourselves going forward cap wise. As has been mentioned countless times, Beane wants to build through the draft and retain our own talent, nothing done in the past 48 hours has changed that. In future years (when we HAVE the talent and depth) I would look for us to be much less active in FA. 

 

 

I can get on board with Morse being a big difference maker, I don't think a center's role can be understated, especially with a young QB so to go from guys who should be career backups to a top half of the league starter makes a big difference.

 

I also agree on Brown.  He's shown flashes at times but never really put it all together.  Self proclaimed gurus like Matt Harmon on Reception Perception love Brown.  If healthy (a caveat that seems to accompany all these signings) he's a dramatic upgrade on what we had on the field last year.

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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

There's nothing new about it.

 

Yeah, they're using other teams to develop guys. Teams have been doing that since before there were facemasks. Trading and picking up guys other teams don't want to pay isn't new. It's as old as sports.

 

Your first point seems to de-value the draft. That's the absolute last thing they want to do. They want to build their team with the draft. It's where they will get the overwhelming majority of their core guys. They'll draft them and that way they can teach and develop them from minute one

 

Get two studs each year in the draft? That's ridiculous. It's just a start. They want four or five contributors each year from the draft or UDFAs and the more studs the better. Last year isn't the year you should look at to see how they'll attack the draft. Last year was special, a year when they traded away a ton of guys to develop the draft capital to pick a QB. And yeah they got Edmunds as well, but they wouldn't have been able to get him if they'd traded up to #5 as they'd planned to do before Denver found that their guy was still available there. They aren't going to have that much draft capital available most years. 2017 is probably a better example of what they're likely to be doing, though maybe it'd be safer to say that we haven't seen an ordinary year of their drafting yet. In 2017 they were already collecting trade bait to acquire their QB and they traded back. Tre White wasn't seen - at the time - as a guy with HOF potential. They picked him because he was the BPA.

 

I like what they're doing. An awful lot.

 

But it's the opposite of new. It's the template that most of the smart and consistently successful teams in the league have used for decades. It's the same template used by teams like the Pats, Ravens, Steelers, Giants and Packers. The pillars these teams use are these:

 

1) Build through the draft

2) Don't get in cap trouble

3) Because you aren't in cap trouble, re-sign your core players to second contracts

4) Fill in the gaps with free agents and trades, but don't bring in the really high-budget guys more than once every four or five years. Do this mostly with low- and medium-priced FAs.

5) Use FA to fill in the obvious gaps and holes so that you can draft for need.

6) Before anything else ... do what's necessary to get yourself a QB, even if it requires a rebuild.

 

There are a few more, but this is the path the Bills are following, and it's the smartest way.

 

What it isn't ... is new. It's old. But not easy. So far they appear to be doing it right, though they still have a lot to prove.

Exactly it’s nothing new to the league. Just something new to Buffalo. We used to be the team to build the players and have teams come and take them once they were ready. I could sit here and name probably 10 players that got taken from us after we developed them. Jason Peters was drafted as a TE and we built him into the best left tackle in the league. I’m not even going to keep going I’ll get mad lol

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I agree. For some reason, in football, draft picks are seen as such valuable assets. For example, to me the Browns won in the trade. OBJ is a proven superstar and fits well with their current situation. A #17 pick and a 3 rd rounder the Giants got are crapshoots, and the chance to get a major superstar out of them next to zero. I mean, if one team has proven high 1st draft picks don't matter, it's the Browns ha ha. When you have top 5 picks, yes, sure, most of the time there are gold in there.  The opposite example of the Browns to still illustrate the point: the damn Patriots. How have they fared these last 15 years with no high draft picks?...

 

Somewhat more proven players like mentioned in the original post are more likely to succeed, and I certainly do NOT regret the Bills trading picks last year to get the #7 spot and grab Josh Allen!

 

 

 

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