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WR John Brown (Ravens) to the Bills


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19 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Catch percentages for deep threats are always lower than everyone else's. Most QBs aren't particularly accurate on 40+ yard throws. 

He had 7 catches on 7 targets in that game too. 

 

Yes but his catch percentage is terrible even considering he's running a fair share of deep routes. If we just look at last year for receivers with at least 50 targets and a YPC greater than 12 (to rule out guys working mostly underneath), Brown ranked 54th out of 55 receivers @ 43.3%. The only guy worse than that was KB. In 2017 Brown was dead last in catch percentage using those same criteria. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&pos[]=wr&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos[]=qb&draft_pos[]=rb&draft_pos[]=wr&draft_pos[]=te&draft_pos[]=e&draft_pos[]=t&draft_pos[]=g&draft_pos[]=c&draft_pos[]=ol&draft_pos[]=dt&draft_pos[]=de&draft_pos[]=dl&draft_pos[]=ilb&draft_pos[]=olb&draft_pos[]=lb&draft_pos[]=cb&draft_pos[]=s&draft_pos[]=db&draft_pos[]=k&draft_pos[]=p&c1stat=targets&c1comp=gt&c1val=50&c2stat=rec_yds_per_rec&c2comp=gt&c2val=12&c5val=1.0&order_by=catch_pct 

Edited by VW82
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What’s Interetsting and I will find the Tweet. But someone asked agent contact of him his any of his WRs has Bills interested. The Agents statement is my clients are not fast enough. Here it is. 

 

NFL Draft Diamonds (@DraftDiamonds)
Yesterday I talked with an agent to see if he had any wide receivers that had interest from Buffalo. He responded to me they’re not fast enough. I get it now!!!
Edited by MAJBobby
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9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He caught over 50 percent of his passes when Flacco was the QB. He caught roughly 30 percent when Jackson was the QB. 

 

His catch percentage with Flacco was 53% which would have put him 40th out of 55 deep threat receivers. Not great. How do you explain the two years prior? He was 48th in 2016 and dead last in 2017 with Carson Palmer. 

 

Again, some of it can be explained by bad QB play but there's a lot of evidence, including what you see when you watch him play, that he's just not great at getting open or catching the football. 

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2 hours ago, buffaloaggie said:

Brown is not a slot. Why are you comparing Humphries fit with Allen to Brown? Maybe compare Beasley.

 

I didn't think we would go after another WR in FA. That's why I thought Brown was a better fit. Good for Beane going after Beasley as well, he was a chain mover for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.

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1 minute ago, VW82 said:

 

His catch percentage with Flacco was 53% which would have put him 40th out of 55 deep threat receivers. Not great. How do you explain the two years prior? He was 48th in 2016 and dead last in 2017 with Carson Palmer. 

 

Again, some of it can be explained by bad QB play but there's a lot of evidence, including what you see when you watch him play, that he's just not great at getting open or catching the football. 

53 percent with an 18.9 ypc rate is actually *good*.  The only one who matched that ypr was DeSean Jackson at 18.88, and he had a 55.4 percent catch rate. 

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12 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

His catch percentage with Flacco was 53% which would have put him 40th out of 55 deep threat receivers. Not great. How do you explain the two years prior? He was 48th in 2016 and dead last in 2017 with Carson Palmer. 

 

Again, some of it can be explained by bad QB play but there's a lot of evidence, including what you see when you watch him play, that he's just not great at getting open or catching the football. 

For GENUINE home run threats (i.e., yards-per-catch averages of 16.5 or greater), note the catch percentages of the leaders in a couple of recent seasons: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/receiving.htm#receiving::11 ; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/receiving.htm#receiving::11 .

Edited by dave mcbride
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8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

For GENUINE home run threats (i.e., yards-per-catch averages of 16.5 or greater), note the catch percentages of the leaders in a couple of recent seasons: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/receiving.htm#receiving::11 ; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/receiving.htm#receiving::11 .

 

His only YPC season > 16.5 was last year. Previously he'd been in the 13-15 range. Also, he didn't even qualify on that list. Either way, he's still on the low end for catch percentage as most of those deep threats are in the 55-65% range, with the elite guys above 70%. Brown has been low 40s to low 50s with the exception of two outlier seasons - one good, one bad.  

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9 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

His only YPC season > 16.5 was last year. Previously he'd been in the 13-15 range. Also, he didn't even qualify on that list. Either way, he's still on the low end for catch percentage as most of those deep threats are in the 55-65% range, with the elite guys above 70%. Brown has been low 40s to low 50s with the exception of two outlier seasons - one good, one bad.  

In the two links I sent, only 2 out of 14 receivers average 16.5 yards plus averaged in the 60s. Regardless, it really doesn't matter; deep throws are a bit of a crap shoot given the distance involved. What matters is having a guy who can beat guys deep and haul it in with some regularity. He can CERTAINLY do that--he is friggin' fast and still in his prime. No one is saying he's the second coming of Cliff Branch or Bob Warfield. He is, however, a legit NFL deep threat in his prime who can blow past guys deep. That does a lot for an offense. His performance in 2015 is one of the reasons Arizona had the #1 offense in the NFL. 

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1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

In the two links I sent, only 2 out of 14 receivers average 16.5 yards plus averaged in the 60s. Regardless, it really doesn't matter; deep throws are a bit of a crap shoot given the distance involved. What matters is having a guy who can beat guys deep and haul it in with some regularity. He can CERTAINLY do that--he is friggin' fast and still in his prime. No one is saying he's the second coming of Cliff Branch or Bob Warfield. He is, however, a legit NFL deep threat in his prime who can blow past guys deep. That does a lot for an offense. His performance in 2015 is one of the reasons Arizona had the #1 offense in the NFL. 

 

His 2015 performance is definitely cause for hope. I personally think it had more to do with Larry's one last HOF season and Palmer playing like an MVP. That offense was incredible. You can't take away Brown's production though, and there's no denying he's got wheels. Hopefully he'll continue to improve and get the drops under control. 

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8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

In the two links I sent, only 2 out of 14 receivers average 16.5 yards plus averaged in the 60s. Regardless, it really doesn't matter; deep throws are a bit of a crap shoot given the distance involved. What matters is having a guy who can beat guys deep and haul it in with some regularity. He can CERTAINLY do that--he is friggin' fast and still in his prime. No one is saying he's the second coming of Cliff Branch or Bob Warfield. He is, however, a legit NFL deep threat in his prime who can blow past guys deep. That does a lot for an offense. His performance in 2015 is one of the reasons Arizona had the #1 offense in the NFL. 

right. not to be forgotten is what just the speed aspect alone will do for the entire offense. when you make a D have to defend every square foot of a field, that opens up a lot of opportunity for other areas.

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20 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I pray we aren’t.  The guys were signed are 3s on a good team. I want to have a good team one day. 

Foster looks to be a genuinely good player: good hands, and really, really fast. 

Edited by dave mcbride
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