Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[NoSaint]

6 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Great post. There is definitely no doubt he is going to start unless he blows an ACL in the offseason.

 

Don’t know how it’s even a discussion really.

Agreed he’s the starter but suspect that CB/JB/Zay/foster see relatively even snap counts unless someone really plays outside of expectation (positive or negative).

5 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

The FO did a good job structuring Brown's contract, but 11 mil GTD is nothing to sneeze at. That'd be a pretty tough pill to swallow if he didn't even make the team in year one.

 

Thats essentially guaranteeing a spot this year. It’s without question.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

42 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

The FO did a good job structuring Brown's contract, but 11 mil GTD is nothing to sneeze at. That'd be a pretty tough pill to swallow if he didn't even make the team in year one.

 

Just to be clear, I have every belief he will be on the Bills 53 man roster unless he IR's

I just don't see him as guaranteed a starting gig much less penciled in as the #1 guy.  He'll have to show that's the case in training camp.

 

You don't bring in a guy with a 50% catch ratio and tell him he's #1 replacing a guy with a 55% catch ratio until you see what they each do in your system with your QB throwing to them.  Maybe he's better.  Or maybe he's not.

 

48 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Great post. There is definitely no doubt he is going to start unless he blows an ACL in the offseason.

Don’t know how it’s even a discussion really.

 

Look at his injury history and his game logs.  He has a history of multiple nagging injuries causing him to miss major time.

 

He stayed healthy last year, first time since 2015

 

 

[BillsFan130]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

Look at his injury history and his game logs.  He has a history of multiple nagging injuries causing him to miss major time.

 

He stayed healthy last year, first time since 2015

 

 

Ok. I’m  really not sure what you are getting at now.

 

Sure there is a possibility he gets hurt. Injuries happen in the NFL. 

 

What does that have to do with anything we were discussing about him being a starter on the depth chart?

 

Yes if he blows an ACL or has a severe injury he won’t be a starter. I can agree with that lol

[Locomark]

On 2/28/2019 at 4:05 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. Another very good point.

 

On 2/28/2019 at 4:16 AM, ColeB said:

 

At times this season he reminded me of Jarvis Landry.

Zay Jones could be very good as a slot In a 4 wide or could be ought of here. I just don’t see him putting it all together day in and day out enough to ever be talked about in the same sentence with Jarvis Landry. He is closer to a cut than being that caliber IMO. If Robert Foster show consistently on the outside throughout the preseason and camp then Zay is looking like trade bait. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

Ok. I’m  really not sure what you are getting at now.

Sure there is a possibility he gets hurt. Injuries happen in the NFL. 

 

What does that have to do with anything we were discussing about him being a starter on the depth chart?

Yes if he blows an ACL or has a severe injury he won’t be a starter. I can agree with that lol

 

The point is that Brown's injury history involves him missing games with multiple injuries not usually considered severe.

I'm not dissing the guy at all - I hope he is All That and a Bag of Chips for us.

 

My point is, he's 29 with a chronic health condition (sickle cell trait).  He's missed games due to hamstring, quadriceps, toe, and back injuries.

When you have a guy with that injury history and you're desperate for quality WR on your team, you take a shot at him, signing him for what you gotta pay.

But you don't assert "he'll start unless he blows an ACL", because his past injury history shows significant time lost (and 0 reception games) when plagued by far less severe injuries.

 

There's also this point you skipped over:

You also don't take a guy with a career catch % of 50.2% and a catch % of 50.4% with the vet QB last year, and proclaim him the starter over a guy with a better catch % of 54.9% last year (whom we all consider not good enough).

 

You look at them both in your system with your QB and see who is better.  That's who starts.

 

I repeat: John Brown will compete.  That's a Good Thing.  I hope he looks great, because that will be good for the Bills.  But he's just not got the pedigree (or the contract) where you bring a guy in and hand him the job.  He needs to stay healthy, and he needs to show he's The Man in Daboll's system with Allen throwing to him.

 

 

[Shaw66]

Wow.  I'm not sure where some of you guys are coming from.  For whatever reason, I don't care what the reason, Brown never has fulfiled what seemed to bis future in his rookie season.  He just hasn't. 

 

So you have a guy who, for whatever reason, hasn't been the #1 guy you want, coming into a system that preaches that you have to earn everything you get.  I am not going to pencil that guy in as a day 1 starter.  Day 1 training camp, sure.  Day 1 of the regular season, no.  McD is going to play the guy who performs in camp.  Brown will have to win the job, and his contract will have nothing to do with it.  

 

I expect he will win the job, and I expect the Bills receiving corps will be better than last season.  If he doesn't and the Bills receivers aren't, then Beane will have continued a string of failed receiver decisions. 

 

What SHOULD happen is Beasley and Brown are the two most important receivers, which means Zay goes from the best in 2018 to 3rd or 4th or 5th.  

 

And, of course, ALL of this depends on Allen.  If he isn't making the reads and the throws, ALL of the receivers will look like 2018 revisited.  

Edited May 10, 2019 by Shaw66

[BillsFan130]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The point is that Brown's injury history involves him missing games with multiple injuries not usually considered severe.

I'm not dissing the guy at all - I hope he is All That and a Bag of Chips for us.

 

My point is, he's 29 with a chronic health condition (sickle cell trait).  He's missed games due to hamstring, quadriceps, toe, and back injuries.

When you have a guy with that injury history and you're desperate for quality WR on your team, you take a shot at him, signing him for what you gotta pay.

But you don't assert "he'll start unless he blows an ACL", because his past injury history shows significant time lost (and 0 reception games) when plagued by far less severe injuries.

 

There's also this point you skipped over:

You also don't take a guy with a career catch % of 50.2% and a catch % of 50.4% with the vet QB last year, and proclaim him the starter over a guy with a better catch % of 54.9% last year (whom we all consider not good enough).

 

You look at them both in your system with your QB and see who is better.  That's who starts.

 

I repeat: John Brown will compete.  That's a Good Thing.  I hope he looks great, because that will be good for the Bills.  But he's just not got the pedigree (or the contract) where you bring a guy in and hand him the job.  He needs to stay healthy, and he needs to show he's The Man in Daboll's system with Allen throwing to him.

 

 

I appreciate your time and effort with your post.

 

I will stick to my original point though and say if John Brown is healthy, he starts.

 

We will have to agree to disagree it looks like. 

 

Have a a good night sir

[Turk71]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's the intention for sure.  But he has to earn the starting job, and his career to date doesn't make him a sure thing. 

If that's true and he is not a sure thing to start then making him the 19th highest paid wr in 2019 cash and 26th highest paid in avg per year seems kind of dumb. I take that back,  if he is not good enough for whatever reason then it was a risk they felt was worth taking. A swing and a miss, it happens. Nevermind.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Turk71

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Wow.  I'm not sure where some of you guys are coming from.  For whatever reason, I don't care what the reason, Brown never has fulfiled what seemed to bis future in his rookie season.  He just hasn't. 

 

So you have a guy who, for whatever reason, hasn't been the #1 guy you want, coming into a system that preaches that you have to earn everything you get.  I am not going to pencil that guy in as a day 1 starter.  Day 1 training camp, sure.  Day 1 of the regular season, no.  McD is going to play the guy who performs in camp.  Brown will have to win the job, and his contract will have nothing to do with it.  

 

I expect he will win the job, and I expect the Bills receiving corps will be better than last season.  If he doesn't and the Bills receivers aren't, then Beane will have continued a string of failed receiver decisions. 

 

What SHOULD happen is Beasley and Brown are the two most important receivers, which means Zay goes from the best in 2018 to 3rd or 4th or 5th.  

 

And, of course, ALL of this depends on Allen.  If he isn't making the reads and the throws, ALL of the receivers will look like 2018 revisited.  

 

Good post.  That's exactly correct.  John Brown, his first 2 years, looked like he was It.  Next two seasons....not so much.  Doesn't matter why, the point is, he just hasn't.

 "What should happen?".  Ideally, if Zay and Foster both take big steps, that means we have two young players on cheap contracts who are really good, which is, in my view, "what should happen" from the ideal outcome viewpoint.  What I think is likely to happen is Beasley starts and becomes that slot guy, and two other guys come through. 

 

I don't care which two, I'm just not willing to anoint one and vilify another.

 

And you're absolutely Right On, if Allen isn't making the reads and the throws, that limits what the receivers can do (but they can still look better than 2018 with fewer drops and a few 'circus grabs')

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I appreciate your time and effort with your post.

I will stick to my original point though and say if John Brown is healthy, he starts.

We will have to agree to disagree it looks like.

 

Absolutely, we can agree to disagree.

Always nice to see some data or logic behind it though, other than "highest paid, must be #1"

That isn't what McDermott preaches.

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

His contract says it’s his job to lose. They are paying him descent money and are going to give him every opportunity to be the 1 or 2 receiver this year.

 

He would really have to have a terrible camp/preseason to be dropped from the 1 or 2 role to start the year. And his main competition is Zay Jones.... So I think he’ll remain there lol

I agree he’s not a 1 or 2 on a good team, but on the Bills he is definitely one of their better receivers and is getting paid like it relative to the other Bills receivers

A HEALTHY John Brown IS actually a solid #2 on a good team; look at this numbers last year before the QB switch, and in his second season. Healthy stretches with average (above average for a 2015 Carson Palmer) QBs and he put up solid numbers. 

 

Bruce Arians has compared him to Marvin Harrison, for what it's worth. But he had difficulty staying healthy in Zona, and then last year his production was interrupted by the Lamar Jackson show. 

[BillsFan130]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Absolutely, we can agree to disagree.

Always nice to see some data or logic behind it though, other than "highest paid, must be #1"

That isn't what McDermott preaches.

In this case I think common sense trumps data though.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

In this case I think common sense trumps data though.

 

Did you really just post that?  Good Golly.

 

When "common sense" does not align with data, one should question whether one's common sense is actually, you know: sensible.  Like buckling up in a car, which is now considered standard (lots of data supports benefits); people used to consider it "common sense" it was always better to be "thrown clear" of an accident.

 

I like John Brown from what I've seen. We would have had a better WR corps if he'd come here last year.  He maybe got a raw deal at QB 2x on ARI then BAL.

He's here because having gutted ourselves of good WR pre-2017, we badly need guys who can actually play in the NFL to build a competitive WR corps.  Brown badly needs a fair shot on a team with a QB who can throw, where the WR corps is open for competition.  It's a match, and I hope it's a good one.

 

He's not here because his record over the last 3 seasons make him a shoo-in for a job that is his to lose.    That's common sense, BECAUSE it's what the data show.

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan130]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Did you really just post that?  Good Golly.

 

When "common sense" does not align with data, one should question whether one's common sense is actually, you know: sensible.  Like buckling up in a car, which is now considered standard (lots of data supports benefits); people used to consider it "common sense" it was always better to be "thrown clear" of an accident.

 

I like John Brown from what I've seen. We would have had a better WR corps if he'd come here last year.  He maybe got a raw deal at QB 2x on ARI then BAL.

He's here because having gutted ourselves of good WR pre-2017, we badly need guys who can actually play in the NFL to build a competitive WR corps.  Brown badly needs a fair shot on a team with a QB who can throw, where the WR corps is open for competition.  It's a match, and I hope it's a good one.

 

He's not here because his record over the last 3 seasons make him a shoo-in for a job that is his to lose.    That's common sense, BECAUSE it's what the data show.

 

 

 

 

You took what I said way too extreme.

 

Common sense that John Brown will start:

 

1. He was coming off a good season last year until the Ravens decided to play a high school brand of football. 

 

2. He is the highest paid receiver on the team. You can argue that “he needs to compete for a spot” all you want, but at the end of the day the guy that has the high pay check is going to get every single opportunity to play and it would definitely be his spot to lose. He would have to have an absolutely miserable camp to be demoted to the 4 spot.

 

3. They brought him and Beasley in to UPGRADE the position. Zay Jones last year was a starter on the team. They spent descent money on 2 guys not to put them behind Zay Jones on the depth chart.

 

4. The Bills clearly want more speed at the position. It was evident last year when they started using McKenzie and foster more, and it’s even more evident now by bringing in a speedster in brown and an agility freak in Beasley.

 

I never once used 1 piece of data there. Like I said, common sense sometimes out trumps data/analytics.

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Did you really just post that?  Good Golly.

 

When "common sense" does not align with data, one should question whether one's common sense is actually, you know: sensible.  Like buckling up in a car, which is now considered standard (lots of data supports benefits); people used to consider it "common sense" it was always better to be "thrown clear" of an accident.

 

I like John Brown from what I've seen. We would have had a better WR corps if he'd come here last year.  He maybe got a raw deal at QB 2x on ARI then BAL.

He's here because having gutted ourselves of good WR pre-2017, we badly need guys who can actually play in the NFL to build a competitive WR corps.  Brown badly needs a fair shot on a team with a QB who can throw, where the WR corps is open for competition.  It's a match, and I hope it's a good one.

 

He's not here because his record over the last 3 seasons make him a shoo-in for a job that is his to lose.    That's common sense, BECAUSE it's what the data show.

 

 

 

 

Thanks.  It's a pleasure reading stuff that makes sense.  

 

The truth is that when common sense and data don't align, either could be incorrect.  Both data and common sense can mislead us in our thinking.   So when the two don't agree, it becomes necessary to examine both the underpinnings of what we think is common sense and the actual relevance of the data to what we're seeking to conclude.  

 

The seat belt example demonstrates half of the problem; the completion percentage as a measure of passing accuracy is the other half.   Just because we have data that Allen's completion percentage is low, it does not necessarily follow that he is an inaccurate thrower.   It's possible his throwing is the cause of the low completion percentage, but it's also possible that other factors cause or contribute to the low percentage.  

 

In this case, as you've demonstrated, all the data pretty much supports your conclusion:   his previous several years (although it's possible quarterbacking had something to do with it). what he's getting paid, the demand in the market for him last year and this year.  The data says he's a guy would MIGHT be able to do great things for you, but it's far from certain he WILL do it.  

 

I'm expecting him to be the #1 receiver, but he will need to earn that role.  If he doesn't produce and Zay and Foster progress, it's easy to see them as 1 and 2 with Beasley in the slot, leaving Brown with #4 spot.  

 

There's going to be real competition, and none of Foster, Jones, Williams, Sills and McKenzie are going to concede anything to Brown.  

[Bray Wyatt]

Our receiving corps will be Foster, Beasley, Brown, Jones, Roberts, with McKenzie, Duke and Sills fighting for the 6th spot

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

A HEALTHY John Brown IS actually a solid #2 on a good team; look at this numbers last year before the QB switch, and in his second season. Healthy stretches with average (above average for a 2015 Carson Palmer) QBs and he put up solid numbers. 

 

Bruce Arians has compared him to Marvin Harrison, for what it's worth. But he had difficulty staying healthy in Zona, and then last year his production was interrupted by the Lamar Jackson show. 

 

All true, but to either ? on your parade or bring in data (depending upon POV), last year with Flacco he was a 50-52% catch % guy.  Now maybe that's because Flacco wasn't throwing the most accurate passes.  Who we got under center who throws lasers?  Brown's productivity dropped after game 7, whilst LJax started after game 10.  Why?

 

Since you mention QB switch: in an attempt to bring apples-to-apples, I pulled Zay Jones numbers for the last 7 games with a QB still on the Bills throwing to him (Barkley or Allen).  I think that's fair: I excluded Allen's pre-injury games as a "rookie learning curve" and Peterman/Anderson because I don't think either of them could actually play QB last year.  Then I pulled John Brown's numbers with Flacco (again, excluding LJax as a "rookie learning curve").  All data are from pro-football reference.  The comparison is 7 games (Zay) to 9 games (Brown).

 

Boy, I can sure see who is the shoo-in starting WR:

 

I hate bringing this stuff up, I really do.  I'm speaking God's Truth when I say I like John Brown, he had a sure-fire fantastic season with Palmer in 2016, and I hope to hell he can return to that kind of form for us.  It just puzzles me why we look at Zay Jones and dis him off as "not good enough" and are all over John Brown who had similar #s, as a lock at starter.

[Bray Wyatt]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All true, but to either ? on your parade or bring in data (depending upon POV), last year with Flacco he was a 50-52% catch % guy.  Now maybe that's because Flacco wasn't throwing the most accurate passes.  Who we got under center who throws lasers?  Brown's productivity dropped after game 7, whilst LJax started after game 10.  Why?

 

Since you mention QB switch: in an attempt to bring apples-to-apples, I pulled Zay Jones numbers for the last 7 games with a QB still on the Bills throwing to him (Barkley or Allen).  I think that's fair: I excluded Allen's pre-injury games as a "rookie learning curve" and Peterman/Anderson because I don't think either of them could actually play QB last year.  Then I pulled John Brown's numbers with Flacco (again, excluding LJax as a "rookie learning curve").  All data are from pro-football reference.  The comparison is 7 games (Zay) to 9 games (Brown).

 

Boy, I can sure see who is the shoo-in starting WR:

 

I hate bringing this stuff up, I really do.  I'm speaking God's Truth when I say I like John Brown, he had a sure-fire fantastic season with Palmer in 2016, and I hope to hell he can return to that kind of form for us.  It just puzzles me why we look at Zay Jones and dis him off as "not good enough" and are all over John Brown who had similar #s, as a lock at starter.

 

It is because Zay had a bad rookie year and a case of the dropsies so the new guy must be better. Zay had 4 different qbs throwing to him last year and was learning a new offense. Once the qb position stabilized and he knew the offense better, he produced more. I am expecting a more confident Zay this year and dont see any way he is not on the roster (barring a trade where we get a good return, we invested too much in him to give up on him especially when he was showing improvement)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

You took what I said way too extreme.

Common sense that John Brown will start:

 

1. He was coming off a good season last year until the Ravens decided to play a high school brand of football. 

 

How do you know it was a good season?  Wouldn't that be based on...Data?

 

I put this elsewhere, I'll put it here.  Brown's 9 games with Flacco vs Zay's 7 games with Barkley and post-injury Allen.  Who is who?

 

Quote

4. The Bills clearly want more speed at the position. It was evident last year when they started using McKenzie and foster more, and it’s even more evident now by bringing in a speedster in brown and an agility freak in Beasley.

 

How do you know Brown is faster at the WR position?  Wouldn't that be based on...Data? 

But here's the thing: a guy's speed history, and a guy's current speed at age 29 are not necessarily the same.  Speedsters start to fall off at that age.  We'll see.

 

Quote

I never once used 1 piece of data there. Like I said, common sense sometimes out trumps data/analytics.

 

Yeah, you're using data.  You just don't want to acknowledge that some of the things you call "common sense" are actually based upon data - performance in games, measured speed etc - and can be questioned as data.

 

Quote

2. He is the highest paid receiver on the team. You can argue that “he needs to compete for a spot” all you want, but at the end of the day the guy that has the high pay check is going to get every single opportunity to play and it would definitely be his spot to lose. He would have to have an absolutely miserable camp to be demoted to the 4 spot.

 

Now we get into opinion.  I don't think that's how McDermott works.  It's not how he says he works.  But it's not debatable because it comes down to a belief system.  I believe McDermott means what he says about "everything is earned" and competition.  You believe that "money talks loudest" and that McDermott and Beane learned nothing from sticking too long with the highest-paid Benjamin.  That's your belief, and you're entitled to it.

By the way, I'm not claiming Brown will be "demoted to the #4 spot", I'm just saying the guy coming into camp with an advantage, would be the guy who played in your system with your QB last year

 

Quote

3. They brought him and Beasley in to UPGRADE the position. Zay Jones last year was a starter on the team. They spent descent money on 2 guys not to put them behind Zay Jones on the depth chart.

 

Upgrading the position is not the same thing as "putting the new guys ahead of all existing guys on the depth chart".  I think all of us would agree that a WR corps consisting of (in alphabetical order) Beasley, Brown, Foster, Jones, Roberts  should be an upgrade on Benjamin, Foster, Holmes, Jones, McKensie.  That's a position upgrade, it's not a depth chart.  But again, this comes down to opinion or a belief system.

 

I think what you're calling "common sense" is either data, or your personal belief system, but we've sorted where the differences are and that's as much as can be done.

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

48 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  It's a pleasure reading stuff that makes sense.  

 

The truth is that when common sense and data don't align, either could be incorrect.  Both data and common sense can mislead us in our thinking.   So when the two don't agree, it becomes necessary to examine both the underpinnings of what we think is common sense and the actual relevance of the data to what we're seeking to conclude.  

 

The seat belt example demonstrates half of the problem; the completion percentage as a measure of passing accuracy is the other half.   Just because we have data that Allen's completion percentage is low, it does not necessarily follow that he is an inaccurate thrower.   It's possible his throwing is the cause of the low completion percentage, but it's also possible that other factors cause or contribute to the low percentage.  

 

In this case, as you've demonstrated, all the data pretty much supports your conclusion:   his previous several years (although it's possible quarterbacking had something to do with it). what he's getting paid, the demand in the market for him last year and this year.  The data says he's a guy would MIGHT be able to do great things for you, but it's far from certain he WILL do it.  

 

I'm expecting him to be the #1 receiver, but he will need to earn that role.  If he doesn't produce and Zay and Foster progress, it's easy to see them as 1 and 2 with Beasley in the slot, leaving Brown with #4 spot.  

 

There's going to be real competition, and none of Foster, Jones, Williams, Sills and McKenzie are going to concede anything to Brown.  

 

This may be a nit to you:  Data are data.  Unless they are falsified or based on faulty equipment, data are never incorrect.
 

Now, the *interpretation* of data can be incorrect.  For example, as you say, the data can be irrelevant to the question being considered.  Or it can have several potential explanations, and one has to look outside the data set to choose the correct explanation - the "completion percentage" quandry.  There may be also be several correct explanations.  For example, Allen may have a low completion percentage because he had a poor supporting cast at OL and WR his last year at Wyoming and last year here, because he is a rookie who is learning to make NFL-quality reads, AND because some of his throws are consistently less accurate than they need to be.

 

I agree completely with the bolded.  And competition is exactly what Beane and McDermott say they want.

 

45 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Our receiving corps will be Foster, Beasley, Brown, Jones, Roberts, with McKenzie, Duke and Sills fighting for the 6th spot

 

That's how I see the names and the fight, with the caveat the order may be different - unless Foster takes a big big step on his routes and blocking, he's not #1 in my opinion.  That's based on watching his routes in the last 3 games.