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Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.


Alphadawg7

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I think Zay is going to have a pretty good year. He was learning a new offense as well as dealing with a revolving door of qbs at the beginning of the year. Once that stabilized and he got a better feel for the offense he seemed to produce more. 

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I think Thirm is generally right.  As a matter pure statistics, MOST players will cluster their good performances in a few games. That's how data usually falls.  That's why we're so i.pressed, for example, when a guy strings 5 or 6 100 yard games together.  

 

And yes it may matter what time in the game it is, and what the score is, but as others have said, a good route and a good route is a good route and a good catch whenever it happens. 

 

As I have said before, I dont think the point is that Zay is bad.  It is that you and I and others see circumstances that would cause Zay to get traded or even cut because other players offer more short- or long-teem upside.  

 

Hap - 

 

I've thought all along we have seen it more or less the same way. As I said way back somewhere, you seem to think Zay has more upside than I do, and that's just an honest difference of opinion.

 

I agree that Robert's, Beasley and Brown are locks to make the squad.  I agree that Brown is not a lock to start.  I think if there is a fourth lock to make the teM, its Foster, not Zay.  More so than you, I think Foster is likely to continue to improve to the point where he will be a serious threat to win one of the wideout spots.   I think you agree with me that if Williams and Sills play well enough in camp and preseason, however you define well enough, Zay is in trouble.  

 

Finally, I think its great to be having a discussion about whether a guy is good enough to make the team.  Last year the discussion was about whether the Bills had five or six guys good enough to be in the league. It's true, of course, that several guys could be busts and Zay starts by default, but that doesn't seem to be the way things are trending. 

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1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

It took a while to put all of this together, so I do hope people read through it and don’t just cherry pick or point out my typos. The following is a game by game analysis of Zay’s performance for 2018.I tried to keep bias out and simply present the information, and the timing of Zay’s performances… at what points in games is he producing etc. All in all he had three good games, the Barkley Jets game and the Miami games. I’m not sure if the info here answers the garbage time question, but I did the best I could.

 

Game 1 vs Ravens (Ravens win 47-3) - Zay played 60/64 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 26 yards on six targets. His first catch came with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The score at that point was 40-6 Ravens.

 

Game 2 vs Chargers (Chargers win 31-20) - Zay played 51/62 snaps and had 2 catches for 63 yards on three targets. One of them was a 57 yard Josh Allen bomb that he juggled and double caught.  His first catch came with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. The score at that point was 21-3. The 57 yard catch came with about a minute left in the half. He made a nice a adjustment on that deep ball, but if he catches it clean, he should score (this is where RAC comes in). Anyway it led to a field goal. Zay did nothing else the rest of the game to aid the valiant comeback attempt.

 

Game 3 vs Vikings (Bills win! 27-6) Zay played 42/67 snaps and had 1 catch for 17 yards on 1 target. This came with 3:53 left in the third quarter on a 3rd and 25 with the Bills already up 27-0. Xavier Rhodes was covering KB.

 

Game 4 vs Packers (Pack wins 22-0) Zay played 53/58 snaps and had 4 catches for 38 yards on 7 targets. His first catch came with 6:02 left in the fourth quarter with Green Bay already leading 19-0. He had three more catches.

 

Game 5 vs Tennessee (Bills win 13-12) Zay played 50/65 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. His first catch came in the first quarter on the first drive. On that same drive he  had a three yard catch converting a critical 3rd and 2. His next and last reception of the game came in the 4th quarter with 9 minutes left in the game with the Bills leading 10-9.

 

Game 6 vs Houston (Texans win 20-13) Zay played in 58/62 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 38 yards on 8 targets. And his first TD of the year. His first catch came with 2:53 seconds left in the third quarter with the score 10-3 Texans. He scored his first TD of the year with Peterman in and made a really good catch, making the score 13-10 Buffalo.

 

Game 7 vs Indy (Colts killed us 37-5) Zay played in 51/56 snaps and had 3 catches for 27 yards on 5 targets. His first catch came early in the first with no score. Derek Anderson started this game.

 

Game 8 vs NE (Cheats won 25-6) Zay played in 60/64 snaps and had 6 catches for 55 yards on 8 targets. His first catch was made early in the first quarter. And made 5 more catches dispersed through the game.  

 

Game 9 vs Chicago (Bears killed us 41-9 in  a game Peterman started) Zay played in 79/91 snaps. He had 4 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. Zay made his first catch early in the game. He did not make another catch until the third period at which point the score was 28-0 Bears.

 

Game 10 vs Jets (Bills kill them 41-10 with Matt Barkley starting) Zay played in 62/73 snaps. Zay had 8 catches for 93 yards on 11 targets. He also scored his 2nd touchdown of the year. His first catch came late in the first quarter on a critical red zone third down. He got the first down and fumbled the ball trying to score. Jason Croom recovered for the touchdown. That score made it 14-0 Bills. Zay’s touchdown came at the end of the third quarter, putting the Bills up 38-10.

 

Game 11 vs Jacksonville (Bills win a huge game 24-21 after the bye and the return of Josh Allen) Zay played in 55/58 snaps. Zay had 0 catches for 0 yards on 1 target. Just to be fair, Josh Allen only completed 8 of 19 passes. He ran all over the Jags.

 

Game 12 vs Miami (Dolphins win 21-17 in the Charles Clay drop game) Zay played in 66/72 snaps. Zay had 4 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns. Zay’s first catch came in the second quarter and was a touchdown, tying the game at 7. Zay also scored the touchdown and 2 point conversion that put the Bills up 17-14 in the fourth quarter. He also dropped a critical pass (ruled a catch and overturned)  which would have given the Bills a first down inside the 10 with a chance to win with 54 seconds left a few plays before the Clay Hail Mary.

 

Game 13 vs Jets (Jets win 27-23) Zay played in 69/76 plays. He had 3 catches for 22 yards on 9 targets. That’s a pretty crazy stat line. This was the first non Kelvin Benjamin game, but I’m not sure that Zay’s role changed very much as Robert Foster had more snap counts. Zay had two early catches and then did not have another one until the 4th quarter.

 

Game 14 vs Detroit (Bills win 14-13) Zay played in 66/68 snaps. He had 1 catch for 11 yards on 6 targets. His first and only catch of the game came at the end of the first quarter and there was no score. He did get a pass interference call in the 4th that led to the winning touchdown.

 

Game 15 vs NE (Cheats win 24-12) Zay played in 61/61 snaps (100%). He had 5 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets and had 1 touchdown. All of his catches came in the fourth quarter with the score 24-6. His first catch came with 4:37 left in the 4th quarter and the Patriots up 24-6. On the next offensive possession with the Pats up 24-6 and 3 minutes left, Zay had 5 more catches and his touchdown with 1:17 left in the game, making it 24-12.

 

Game 16 vs Miami (Bills kill them 42-17) Zay played in 58/62 snaps. He had 6 catches for 93 yards on 9 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns. His first touchdown came in the first quarter and put the Bills up 14-0. His second touchdown came mid 4th quarter when the Bills were leading 35-17.

 

Thoughts?

 

Nice. Pretty much tells me what I already thought. That he will definitely have to pick his game up if he is going to make the 53 and I will be keeping an eye out at the WR position battle for it should shape up to be a good one. If the others Sills, Williams, etc do well on ST, then IMO that will make it even harder for Zay.

 

In any event it will work itself out and I'm very interested to see how it unfolds. Hope all these guys do well and make it tough for coach to decide which decision to make.

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17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is a more nuanced view from both you and Shaw.  I think major differences between us (and between myself and Shaw) is that, especially due to age and injury history, I feel Brown is there to compete, not written in as the shoo-in #1 WR.   If he looks good and is healthy all camp, the level of competition and uncertainty for sure ratchets up.  And ditto if Duke Williams and Sills look great.    I also think even if Williams and Sills look great, there is that element of preseason uncertainty.

 

I'm not feeling the McKenzie love.  He did well in a spot role on specific plays.  He's going into his 3rd year.  If the "beef" with Zay is "going into 3rd year, what's he shown?" I'm not sure why McKenzie, who has shown less, doesn't get a double-whopper of beef.

 

 

9 Mil per year with 12 Mil guaranteed in the contract to compete? I think Brown is definitely there to start as it would be very surprising if he didn’t get the 1 or 2 spot. IMO

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18 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

9 Mil per year with 12 Mil guaranteed in the contract to compete? I think Brown is definitely there to start as it would be very surprising if he didn’t get the 1 or 2 spot. IMO

That's the intention for sure.  But he has to earn the starting job, and his career to date doesn't make him a sure thing. 

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30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's the intention for sure.  But he has to earn the starting job, and his career to date doesn't make him a sure thing. 

I would personally say it’s his job to lose rather than him having to earn it. He would have to really crap the bed in camp

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4 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

9 Mil per year with 12 Mil guaranteed in the contract to compete? I think Brown is definitely there to start as it would be very surprising if he didn’t get the 1 or 2 spot. IMO

 

That's pretty much the going rate for a competent FA WR who has shown anything in the league - one with a few warts on him, at that.  It slots him #29 at average $$ per year, which when you factor in the hot young guns on their cheap rookie deals, puts him well into #2 WR range. 

Don't believe that?  In yearly average (rank on WR's team for '18 receiving yards), he's just after Quincy Enunwa (#3), DeSean Jackson (#4) and Adam Humphries (#3), and just before Marqise Lee (IR, #2 in '17), Kenny Stills (#2), and Albert Wilson(#4).  So in average, he's being paid fairly like a guy you expect to keep on the roster as a WR and to contribute, but not like a guy you expect to write in as your sure-fire starting #1 or #2 WR.  He's just not.

 

But looking further under the hood...his guaranteed money is $11.6M and slots him in at #40.  His cap hit is $7.5M this year - of which $0.5M is per-game roster bonus - and the Bills could part ways with him for $3.2M after this season - which, witness the Corey Coleman saga, the Beanster regards as chump change.  $7M per year also slots him in about #40.

 

So yes, it's a good contract, but it's not top gun money.

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19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why?  What about his play last year, his play for the last 3 years, or his contract say "his job to lose" in your opinion?

His contract says it’s his job to lose. They are paying him descent money and are going to give him every opportunity to be the 1 or 2 receiver this year.

 

He would really have to have a terrible camp/preseason to be dropped from the 1 or 2 role to start the year. And his main competition is Zay Jones.... So I think he’ll remain there lol

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's pretty much the going rate for a competent FA WR who has shown anything in the league - one with a few warts on him, at that.  It slots him #29 at average $$ per year, which when you factor in the hot young guns on their cheap rookie deals, puts him well into #2 WR range. 

Don't believe that?  In yearly average (rank on WR's team for '18 receiving yards), he's just after Quincy Enunwa (#3), DeSean Jackson (#4) and Adam Humphries (#3), and just before Marqise Lee (IR, #2 in '17), Kenny Stills (#2), and Albert Wilson(#4).  So in average, he's being paid fairly like a guy you expect to keep on the roster as a WR and to contribute, but not like a guy you expect to write in as your sure-fire starting #1 or #2 WR.  He's just not.

 

But looking further under the hood...his guaranteed money is $11.6M and slots him in at #40.  His cap hit is $7.5M this year - of which $0.5M is per-game roster bonus - and the Bills could part ways with him for $3.2M after this season - which, witness the Corey Coleman saga, the Beanster regards as chump change.  $7M per year also slots him in about #40.

 

So yes, it's a good contract, but it's not top gun money.

I agree he’s not a 1 or 2 on a good team, but on the Bills he is definitely one of their better receivers and is getting paid like it relative to the other Bills receivers

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3 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

His contract says it’s his job to lose. They are paying him descent money and are going to give him every opportunity to be the 1 or 2 receiver this year.

 

His contract is paying him comparably to WR who were #2, #3, or #4.  That's simply a fact (see my other post above). 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they paying him (and why is he accepting to be paid) #3-ish money?

What about that contract says "shoo-in #1 guy" to you?

 

His production last year was less than Zay Jones.  His catch % was worse.  Even if you look at Brown's splits and only consider his games with Flacco, that's still 50.5% (Brown) vs 54.9% (Jones). 

 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they expecting that from a guy with a lower catch % last year than Zay Jones, when we all think Jones % isn't good enough?

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

His contract is paying him comparably to WR who were #2, #3, or #4.  That's simply a fact (see my other post above). 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they paying him (and why is he accepting to be paid) #3-ish money?

What about that contract says "shoo-in #1 guy" to you?

 

His production last year was less than Zay Jones.  His catch % was worse.  Even if you look at Brown's splits and only consider his games with Flacco, that's still 50.5% (Brown) vs 54.9% (Jones). 

 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they expecting that from a guy with a lower catch % last year than Zay Jones, when we all think Jones % isn't good enough?

 

 

  What this says to me is wr talent on the Bills is not very good. I think the talent was pretty much the worst in the league last year or close to it, and it is improved but still bottom third. The idea that there weren't receivers in the draft after the 2nd rnd who could beat out any of the Bills and make the team is laughable to me. A couple years from now that will be clearly evident imo.

   Brown and Beasley are each guaranteed over $11 million, if they are not good enough to start on this team Beane will look pretty stupid.

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why?  What about his play last year, his play for the last 3 years, or his contract say "his job to lose" in your opinion?

The fact that with qb that actually threw the football down the field last year he was on pace for 1100 through 8 games. 

 

Jackson was the only thing that happened to Brown last year. It wasn’t anything brown did or didn’t do IMO. 

 

Is there really any doubt brown is gonna start? I mean come on

 

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

His contract is paying him comparably to WR who were #2, #3, or #4.  That's simply a fact (see my other post above). 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they paying him (and why is he accepting to be paid) #3-ish money?

What about that contract says "shoo-in #1 guy" to you?

 

His production last year was less than Zay Jones.  His catch % was worse.  Even if you look at Brown's splits and only consider his games with Flacco, that's still 50.5% (Brown) vs 54.9% (Jones). 

 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they expecting that from a guy with a lower catch % last year than Zay Jones, when we all think Jones % isn't good enough?

 

Brown was on pace for 1,068 yards before Jackson became the starter.  That, the fact that he's a veteran and his $9M/year salary tell me he'll be one of the 2 starting outside receivers.  Beasley will be the slot.  And with what Foster showed, he should be the other starting outside receiver.

 

10 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

  What this says to me is wr talent on the Bills is not very good. I think the talent was pretty much the worst in the league last year or close to it, and it is improved but still bottom third. The idea that there weren't receivers in the draft after the 2nd rnd who could beat out any of the Bills and make the team is laughable to me. A couple years from now that will be clearly evident imo.

   Brown and Beasely are each guaranteed over $11 million, if they are not good enough to start on this team Beane will look pretty stupid.

 

The talent on offense is not in the bottom third.  And this was a lousy WR class.  They added 2 FA's and have Foster and Jones.  If they don't cut it, draft a WR next year when it will be a far better class. 

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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Good work MrEps.

 

What I conclude from that is that in addition to the 3 good games there were some other reasonable showings.... particularly Tennessee and the first Pats game which kind of accords with how I remember it as well. And then a lot of games where he contributed very little, hauled in very few of the balls thrown his way and generally wasn't a difference maker.

 

Thank you. I think the dissappearing act is the issue. You can't be a number 2-3 receiver in the NFL and have zero catch games, or 3 catches for twenty yards. 

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7 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The fact that with qb that actually threw the football down the field last year he was on pace for 1100 through 8 games. 

 

Jackson was the only thing that happened to Brown last year. It wasn’t anything brown did or didn’t do IMO. 

 

Is there really any doubt brown is gonna start? I mean come on

 

 

3 of his last 4 with Flacco weren’t much to write home about either. 

 

Itll be be interesting to see. Beane brought in two guys that need to both be at or above their career best and he doesn’t have a great track record at receiver. 

 

On the bright side it should be a functional group, even if a little underwhelming 

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44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

His contract is paying him comparably to WR who were #2, #3, or #4.  That's simply a fact (see my other post above). 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they paying him (and why is he accepting to be paid) #3-ish money?

What about that contract says "shoo-in #1 guy" to you?

 

His production last year was less than Zay Jones.  His catch % was worse.  Even if you look at Brown's splits and only consider his games with Flacco, that's still 50.5% (Brown) vs 54.9% (Jones). 

 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they expecting that from a guy with a lower catch % last year than Zay Jones, when we all think Jones % isn't good enough?

 

 

You are completely mis understanding what I’m saying. .

 

I never once said an average of 9 Mil per year is number one money. It usually is around #2 money though for the NFL .

 

But ON the Bills he is their highest paid receiver on an annual average. That is also simply a fact.

 

The Bills did not sign John Brown for that money, RELATIVE to the other Bills receivers to “have him compete for a starting job this year”. 

 

It is absolutely his job to lose the 1 or 2 spot on the team for this season. If Beane is paying him an average of 9 Mil to possibly be the 4th receiver, then that would be his worst contract given out to date.

Edited by BillsFan130
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9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

3 of his last 4 with Flacco weren’t much to write home about either. 

 

Itll be be interesting to see. Beane brought in two guys that need to both be at or above their career best and he doesn’t have a great track record at receiver. 

 

On the bright side it should be a functional group, even if a little underwhelming 

You are correct. Looking at his game log he definitely cooled off with Flacco. I gotta wonder who that was because of though. After all it was in that 2nd month of the season that the chatter started for Jackson even before the Flacco injury. 

 

Regardless, is anyone really doubting he starts right out the gate? 

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31 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The fact that with qb that actually threw the football down the field last year he was on pace for 1100 through 8 games. 

 

Jackson was the only thing that happened to Brown last year. It wasn’t anything brown did or didn’t do IMO. 

 

Is there really any doubt brown is gonna start? I mean come on

 

Great post. There is definitely no doubt he is going to start unless he blows an ACL in the offseason.

 

Don’t know how it’s even a discussion really.

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

His contract is paying him comparably to WR who were #2, #3, or #4.  That's simply a fact (see my other post above). 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they paying him (and why is he accepting to be paid) #3-ish money?

What about that contract says "shoo-in #1 guy" to you?

 

His production last year was less than Zay Jones.  His catch % was worse.  Even if you look at Brown's splits and only consider his games with Flacco, that's still 50.5% (Brown) vs 54.9% (Jones). 

 

If the Bills really feel it's "his job to lose" to be the #1 or #2 WR, why are they expecting that from a guy with a lower catch % last year than Zay Jones, when we all think Jones % isn't good enough?

 

 

The FO did a good job structuring Brown's contract, but 11 mil GTD is nothing to sneeze at. That'd be a pretty tough pill to swallow if he didn't even make the team in year one.

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