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Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.


Alphadawg7

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19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Let me say that I haven't been here for several hours, and although it's rambled a bit, this thread is a really good discussion by a bunch of people who know something about football and the Bills.   People who are complaining about a long thread about Zay Jones are missing the point.   This stuff is interesting.

 

As for 5 or 6, I don't know, because I don't study the game in that kind of detail.  I don't know what's involved in deciding on 5 or 6, what other positions essentially get the benefit of that extra body.  I've always assumed it was 6.   I've heard 5. I suppose with the running back logjam, the receiver roster could be shaved.   I always assume the kick returner is one of the five or six (although occasionally you'll have a DB returner).  

 

I agree with Hap - Beasley, Brown and Roberts are the only locks to make the receiver squad.   Something I said when Roberts was acquired was that McKenzie would be gone, and I still think so.   McKenzie may have some upside; I haven't seen it, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have it.  McKenzie's best moments last season were on jet sweeps and similar plays designed to get him the ball in space.  As I understand it, Roberts has already done some of that for the Jets, and if he as any aptitude at all on those plays, aptitude in the sense that he has the ability to get meaningful yardage, then McKenzie will lose the battle for that spot.  Roberts will be the kick returner and the last receiver, in terms of playing time.   As he learns route running, if he does, maybe he moves up to more snaps.   But just as the jet sweep guy, and the jet sweep decoy, the reverse guy and the reverse decoy, Roberts should be more effective than McKenzie, maybe a lot more, just because his kick return skills translate to those specialized plays.  

 

In my mind, as others have said, that means Zay is fighting to be the fourth or fifth or sixth guy to make it.  In terms of playing time, he could be the third receiver, behind Brown and Beasley.   Assuming he continues to show progress, Foster seems clearly to be the fourth guy to make the team - that is, Foster is the fourth after Brown, Beasley and Roberts.  The Bills need his speed, and late last season he began to look like a guy who can be dangerous in the mid-range as well as deep.  That kind of progress would actually push Brown for playing time, or more likely Zay.   When you go three wide, in your ideal lineup, would you rather go Brown, Beasley, Foster or Brown, Beasley, Jones?   If Foster can be a serious receiver in the whole route tree, I'm playing Foster ahead of Zay, just for the deep potential Foster brings, and his potential on slants and skinny posts.   Foster and Brown on the field together forces the defense to cover the whole field, sideline to sideline.  Zay doesn't do that.  So I think Zay is at serious risk of losing the 3 spot.  

 

So that makes Foster the fourth man into a group of five or six to make the receiver squad.   Who's left?   Zay, Williams, Sills, Ray-Ray, McKenzie.   I think McKenzie just doesn't fit, with Roberts here.  Ray-Ray, I don't know.   Never excited me.   If I'm right, its Zay, Williams and Sills fighting for one or two spots.   If I'm wrong about either McKenzie or Ray-Ray, it's because they've developed into something that's a serious threat, and it's probably something that Zay doesn't offer.   And I think that's Zay's problem with Williams and Sills too.   Zay just looks like a decent journeyman NFL receiver and hasn't shown much to cause anyone to expect more of him.  Williams and Sills, and possibly Ray-Ray and McKenzie, all may look less well-rounded now, but all have better upside - Williams and Sills could be serious red zone targets, and Ray-Ray and McK could be serious threats with the ball in the open field, receiver like the little guys Belichick has played for years.  In other words, I can project any of the four being someone the defense worries about some of the time; I have trouble projecting Zay the same way.  .   

 

About the guys who are 5th and 6th on the receiving squad, the coaches are going to ask "Why do we need him?  What does he do for us?"  I think Zay may find that he doesn't offer as good an answer to those questions than some other guys who've had less NFL playing time.  

 

And one final thought:  the questions for the coaches change if they're getting good tight end production.   If the tight end is a threat in the offense, then maybe Zay's steady experience and nice route running becomes more of an asset in the game.   On the other hand, a good TE game also could mean that the offense can afford to take more of a risk with the last receiver on the field, and then, again, the others might offer more than Zay.  

 

I don't know how it will go, but I think Zay has serious competition.  It didn't seem like it was likely three months ago, but I think it's serious now.    

 

Thanks again to everyone for some great discussion.  EDIT:  And my apologies.  I seemed to have just rehashed what others said in the last hour.   

 

Nice post, and yes, this has been quite the interesting discussion.  Most guys in support of Zay have had great participation along with those who aren't so sure he is safe.  There are a few of those supporting Zay I think only here to be able to play the whole "I told you so" game if it he makes the 53 because they seem to think the thread is just merely a "right vs wrong" discussion, but its just not what it is.

 

I would say that I cant remember the last time I was this excited for training camp and preseason, but I would be lying...because I was very excited last year to see Josh Allen and Edmunds hit the field.  That being said, I am actually even more excited this year to see Allens progress, WR competition, our new TE's, the OL competition, Oliver on the D, Edmunds development, etc.  

 

GO BILLS!

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20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Nice post, and yes, this has been quite the interesting discussion.  Most guys in support of Zay have had great participation along with those who aren't so sure he is safe.  There are a few of those supporting Zay I think only here to be able to play the whole "I told you so" game if it he makes the 53 because they seem to think the thread is just merely a "right vs wrong" discussion, but its just not what it is.

 

I would say that I cant remember the last time I was this excited for training camp and preseason, but I would be lying...because I was very excited last year to see Josh Allen and Edmunds hit the field.  That being said, I am actually even more excited this year to see Allens progress, WR competition, our new TE's, the OL competition, Oliver on the D, Edmunds development, etc.  

 

GO BILLS!

 

There was a lot of good stuff in the thread Dawg.  There was some times when it got close to resemble a TT thread.  LOL

There is a lot that has to happen yet for me and I guess others before we can claim who and how many WRs are on the team.

 

One thing I find interesting especially about the new young guys is what kind of development they may or may not get with

the new (relatively unknown) WR Coach Chad Hall.  Let's all hope he is worth his big promotion.

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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Which receiver do you think he'll take snaps from? Foster, Brown, or Beasley? He will have to beat one of those receivers outright to get more than 50% of the snaps.

 

Well, first, I think there will essentially be 3 receivers on the field at all times. Brown will probably get 90%, Beasley 75%, and Foster will get about 50-75%. That leaves about 50% plus snaps for Zay. I tend to think Zay will see the field more than Foster, but that is because I don’t think Foster has the skills to be any thing than a one trick deep threat. That may change though.

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1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Well, first, I think there will essentially be 3 receivers on the field at all times. Brown will probably get 90%, Beasley 75%, and Foster will get about 50-75%. That leaves about 50% plus snaps for Zay. I tend to think Zay will see the field more than Foster, but that is because I don’t think Foster has the skills to be any thing than a one trick deep threat. That may change though.

I myself very much doubt that.

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1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I tend to think Zay will see the field more than Foster

 

This is a pretty bold prediction but we'll see. I'm hoping Foster takes the next step because he's the only receiver on the roster that has flashed #1 ability.

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Nice post, and yes, this has been quite the interesting discussion.  Most guys in support of Zay have had great participation along with those who aren't so sure he is safe.  There are a few of those supporting Zay I think only here to be able to play the whole "I told you so" game if it he makes the 53 because they seem to think the thread is just merely a "right vs wrong" discussion, but its just not what it is.

 

I would say that I cant remember the last time I was this excited for training camp and preseason, but I would be lying...because I was very excited last year to see Josh Allen and Edmunds hit the field.  That being said, I am actually even more excited this year to see Allens progress, WR competition, our new TE's, the OL competition, Oliver on the D, Edmunds development, etc.  

 

GO BILLS!

Great thread, as others have stated! Kudos to the great and knowledgeable fans on this board.

 

Regarding "told you so" game, that is bound to happen when someone makes a bold statement.  And it wasn't started, at least the title doesn't reflect an open convo about all the WRs...such ad "let's discuss our WR camp competiton".  The post was a direct statement about Zay jones not making the team, so ppl who are still supporting him are likely to become defensive and may get upset. 

 

Nothing wrong with anyone staying their opinion, but nobody should be offended by bold statements or someone wanting to call out he makes the 53 (after the fact)..

 

Me personally, if it hasn't been transparent, I still strongly support Zay, but can understand others doubts.  Like you said, great competition will be good for all this training camp! Super exciting, great time to be a fan of this team.  And it's great to have a group of educated fans giving their thoughts on here, all in good fun/support of our team.

 

So thanks again for starting this great thread, pretty awesome dialogue.

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8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a pretty bold prediction but we'll see. I'm hoping Foster takes the next step because he's the only receiver on the roster that has flashed #1 ability.

 

I mean, he was cut in the middle of the year last year.  Its not that outside the realm of possibility.  He had an awesome second half of the season, but for the rest of his professional and college career he has been an absolute no show.  But yeah, if he continues on that torrid pace, he will see the field a ton.  I just think his skill set is a little too similar to Brown.  He is a bit duplicative.  Zay's are unique to every other receiver on the roster. 

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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

There was a lot of good stuff in the thread Dawg.  There was some times when it got close to resemble a TT thread.  LOL

There is a lot that has to happen yet for me and I guess others before we can claim who and how many WRs are on the team.

 

One thing I find interesting especially about the new young guys is what kind of development they may or may not get with

the new (relatively unknown) WR Coach Chad Hall.  Let's all hope he is worth his big promotion.

Great point about Chad Hall! Hoping he can coach up the young group

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10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a pretty bold prediction but we'll see. I'm hoping Foster takes the next step because he's the only receiver on the roster that has flashed #1 ability.

That's an interesting point.   Brown looked like a star as a rookie, but never really emerged.  If he's the Bills #1, that might work, but he isn't a #1 who regularly demands a double.  If Foster emerges as you hope, you're correct, he could be special.  Brown #2 to Foster's #1 is awesome, with Beasley in the slot.  

 

Foster really looked like some light bulb lit in the second half of the season.  Maybe it was just a little hot streak, but it seemed like every game he did something special. 

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Nice post, and yes, this has been quite the interesting discussion.  Most guys in support of Zay have had great participation along with those who aren't so sure he is safe.  There are a few of those supporting Zay I think only here to be able to play the whole "I told you so" game if it he makes the 53 because they seem to think the thread is just merely a "right vs wrong" discussion, but its just not what it is.

 

I would say that I cant remember the last time I was this excited for training camp and preseason, but I would be lying...because I was very excited last year to see Josh Allen and Edmunds hit the field.  That being said, I am actually even more excited this year to see Allens progress, WR competition, our new TE's, the OL competition, Oliver on the D, Edmunds development, etc.  

 

GO BILLS!

Training camp will be fun.  All of what you say - Allen, Oliver, Edmunds, oline, receivers, Singletary.  Knox and Sills.   A lot of interesting stories.

 

You can start to see the competition philosophy at work.  The question around the lineup is who's going to win, not is there anyone who's good enough.   Receivers should be good enough, oline good enough, dline good enough.  Not what you want as a finished product, but no glaring holes.   Just a bunch of guys fighting to get the snaps.   

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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Max TD/yr in Hunter's career is 4.  I'm not sure what your point is with him otherwise.  Hunter's best year is well short of Zay's disappointing last season.

 

It's valid that one doesn't reasonably discount achievements for a player on one team unless one goes through other teams and discounts.  It's like discounting the rushing yards of a QB from the team's rushing total then comparing to the league, without subtracting the other teams' QB rushes.

 

Pronouncements now are premature silliness.  Case in point, Benjamin based upon his previous 1000-ish seasons and 1st round pick pedigree, was expected to come into camp last year and slot in as our #1.  Didn't work out that way, did it?  Neither Brown nor Beasley nor have done anything in the last 3 years that is clearly ahead of Jones.  Foster got cut from the team mid-season for making stupid route-running mistakes.  Will he take that to heart, or will he regress? 

 

Zay is #4 on the depth chart after and only after they all come into camp and that's how it rolls.  And even then, there will be an element of uncertainty until regular season.

My point with the Justin Hunter comment was that just because someone has a respectable amount of TDS in a year, it really doesn’t mean too much.

 

I don’t think it’s silly to have an educated opinion/prediction on what Zay will do next season after watching him and observing him for 32 games.

 

Does that mean he is going to suck again? Not necessarily. But he has yet to show me he can consistently create separation and catch the ball effectively after 2 full seasons. 

 

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

My point with the Justin Hunter comment was that just because someone has a respectable amount of TDS in a year, it really doesn’t mean too much.

 

So what's respectable?  4 TD/season, which is one every 4 games?  7 TD a season, which is just shy of one every 2 games? 

 

29 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I don’t think it’s silly to have an educated opinion/prediction on what Zay will do next season after watching him and observing him for 32 games.

Does that mean he is going to suck again? Not necessarily. But he has yet to show me he can consistently create separation and catch the ball effectively after 2 full seasons.

 

The "silly" part is that people are comparing Zay Jones actual NFL production,  to the hoped-for production of undrafted free agents who have either never seen an NFL roster, or who washed off the one they saw.  Comparing the college-open of a college guy or the running start of a CFL guy and saying "whoop whoop he can do great things Zay can't" is silly, because Zay in his day was a genuine BMOC in college, who got college-open and stuff.

 

As far as educated, for me, actually watching last year and "suck again" don't quite align.  You can see Zay's potential in the NYJ win with Barkley.  Given an NFL QB who knew what routes the WR were supposed to run and who made the right reads and threw at the right time, Zay Jones 11 targets, 8 receptions, 93 yards.  That wasn't an accident.  Project that through a season. 

 

Was Zay a #1 NFL WR star in the making, nope.  Did he handle the revolving QB door well, make plays for Allen, and get open more often than he got targets?  Yes, yes he did.  Some of the bobbles and body catches people see, are Zay coming back and reaching and diving for less than ideal throws.  He's about the only WR who did that for Allen regularly.  All the other WR will have to get further on the page with Allen than Zay did, and that remains to be seen.  Beasley and Brown will have to show up and stay healthy with aging bodies, which isn't a given.  Foster will have to prove the end of last season wasn't a fluke and come in ready to pick up where he left off.  And anyone else not named Roberts needs to prove they can play in the NFL before we start writing the depth chart.

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I think the WR sports will be decided after the 3rd pre-season game.  The biggest problems our WRs had last year was  quick separation and drops.  With a bad OL, those two attributes made the offense look really bad. 

 

When then these guys play the pre-season games, they are going to look for exactly those two attributes...the ones with lesser drops and who get separation or jump for the ball will make the team.

 

Foster may be ahead of Jones now...but he had quite a bit of drops. 

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19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So what's respectable?  4 TD/season, which is one every 4 games?  7 TD a season, which is just shy of one every 2 games? 

 

 

The "silly" part is that people are comparing Zay Jones actual NFL production,  to the hoped-for production of undrafted free agents who have either never seen an NFL roster, or who washed off the one they saw.  Comparing the college-open of a college guy or the running start of a CFL guy and saying "whoop whoop he can do great things Zay can't" is silly, because Zay in his day was a genuine BMOC in college, who got college-open and stuff.

 

As far as educated, for me, actually watching last year and "suck again" don't quite align.  You can see Zay's potential in the NYJ win with Barkley.  Given an NFL QB who knew what routes the WR were supposed to run and who made the right reads and threw at the right time, Zay Jones 11 targets, 8 receptions, 93 yards.  That wasn't an accident.  Project that through a season. 

 

Was Zay a #1 NFL WR star in the making, nope.  Did he handle the revolving QB door well, make plays for Allen, and get open more often than he got targets?  Yes, yes he did.  Some of the bobbles and body catches people see, are Zay coming back and reaching and diving for less than ideal throws.  He's about the only WR who did that for Allen regularly.  All the other WR will have to get further on the page with Allen than Zay did, and that remains to be seen.  Beasley and Brown will have to show up and stay healthy with aging bodies, which isn't a given.  Foster will have to prove the end of last season wasn't a fluke and come in ready to pick up where he left off.  And anyone else not named Roberts needs to prove they can play in the NFL before we start writing the depth chart.

I personally don’t see much/any potential in him at all. In 32 games he’s what, maybe had 3 good games in his career?

 

There is a reason Zay is going to be dropped on the depth chart to start the season. It’s because he wasn’t good enough the last 2 years. He got demoted.

 

He now has to EARN his job back as a top 3 WR on the team. The bills gave him all the opportunity in the world the first 2 seasons to produce and the guy didn’t get it done consistently. Pretty hard to argue that.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I personally don’t see much/any potential in him at all. In 32 games he’s what, maybe had 3 good games in his career?

 

There is a reason Zay is going to be dropped on the depth chart to start the season. It’s because he wasn’t good enough the last 2 years. He got demoted.

 

He now has to EARN his job back as a top 3 WR on the team. The bills gave him all the opportunity in the world the first 2 seasons to produce and the guy didn’t get it done consistently. Pretty hard to argue that.

 

Um.  You say Zay "is going to be dropped on the depth chart to start the season".  Then you say "he now has to earn his job back" and "pretty hard to argue that"

 

You're raising a hypothetical.  There isn't a 2019 depth chart yet.  Zay hasn't been dropped yet.  Therefore, he doesn't have to earn his job back, because he hasn't yet lost it.  That actually isn't hard to argue at all.  It's a fact at this point.

 

Let's wait until the OTAs much less training camp starts and we get far enough into preseason games to get an idea what the depth chart might actually be and what roles the Bills seem to see for their WR herd, before pronouncing our hypotheticals inarguable.

 

I mean, it's chill you don't see much or any potential in him at all, but you aren't the FO that drafted him or the guys who are evaluating his film for the Bills.

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um.  You say Zay "is going to be dropped on the depth chart to start the season".  Then you say "he now has to earn his job back" and "pretty hard to argue that"

 

You're raising a hypothetical.  There isn't a 2019 depth chart yet.  Zay hasn't been dropped yet.  Therefore, he doesn't have to earn his job back, because he hasn't yet lost it.  That actually isn't hard to argue at all.  It's a fact at this point.

 

Let's wait until the OTAs much less training camp starts and we get far enough into preseason games to get an idea what the depth chart might actually be and what roles the Bills seem to see for their WR herd, before pronouncing our hypotheticals inarguable.

Lol..I am using common sense in saying Zay is 4 on the depth chart to start the season. Do you really disagree with that?

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Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster 

 

Foster's stats are not leaps and bounds better than Zay's.

 

What signings mean for Zay Jones and Robert Foster

It's going to be an interesting season to watch how Jones and Foster build on 2018 and adapt to the new offense with Brown and Beasley now in the mix. Jones seems to do his best work when he can work out of the slot or inside in a four-receiver set.

 

Brown's speed on the outside should open up some lanes for Jones and take some of the focus off of him. He's not really a fit as an X receiver. He doesn't play physical enough nor does he get enough consistent separation. But if he's asked to do a little less he could have an even larger impact.

Foster could benefit the most from a reliable and consistent slot guy like Beasley and a tag team partner like Brown, who can do some of the same things and take the focus off him when defenses are game planning to stop him. Foster has a lot of play on tape now and defensive coordinators are going to start paying him more attention. The influx of talent in the wide receiver room should benefit him and Jones.

 

 

in another article

https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-buffalo-bills-post-draft-breakdown-offense

By: Joe Buscaglia

 

Wide Receiver (13)
John Brown, Zay Jones, Cole Beasley, Robert Foster, Andre Roberts, Isaiah McKenzie, Victor Bolden Jr., Da'Mari Scott, Ray-Ray McCloud, Cam Phillips, Duke Williams, David Sills V, Nick Easley

 

Biggest Question: Will Zay Jones and/or Robert Foster prevent the Bills from taking a big swing at WR in 2020?
- Now that the wide receiver room is defined and without another young rookie to move some pieces around, the center of attention becomes the two young players that showed some promise late in 2018: Zay Jones and Robert Foster.

 

The upcoming season is a prove-it campaign for both players, especially if they want to continue having a substantial role on the Bills' offense in 2020 and beyond. For Jones, separating from defenders has been his biggest hurdle, but once he started to sell his routes at the point of his breakdown completely, he's enjoyed more success. The excuses for Jones are no longer allowable. He has to prove to be a consistent performer every week, or else the Bills will have to think about making a sizable move in the 2020 offseason. The same goes for Robert Foster, who has to prove that he can not only run the entire route tree but that his work habits and consistency remain constant all year. Just as you must account for the last month of his season, the same must be done for the first half of the season when Foster was getting outworked in practice, lost trust in his hands and lost his place on the roster as a result. As a second-year player with a possible reduced role on paper, Foster must continue to prove he's an ascending player to be a significant factor for the long-term in Buffalo.

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Joe lost it when he said the biggest problem for Zay Jones is separating from defenders-that is the only thing the guy has done really well. If Jones can learn to catch the football like a top WR he could be a top WR but the jury is out on whether he can do that now.

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3 minutes ago, Toesy said:

Joe lost it when he said the biggest problem for Zay Jones is separating from defenders-that is the only thing the guy has done really well. If Jones can learn to catch the football like a top WR he could be a top WR but the jury is out on whether he can do that now.

 

So many "experts" here have said the Bills WR's don't get separation and have not for over 2 seasons.  

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51 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster 

 

Foster's stats are not leaps and bounds better than Zay's.

 

What signings mean for Zay Jones and Robert Foster

It's going to be an interesting season to watch how Jones and Foster build on 2018 and adapt to the new offense with Brown and Beasley now in the mix. Jones seems to do his best work when he can work out of the slot or inside in a four-receiver set.

 

Brown's speed on the outside should open up some lanes for Jones and take some of the focus off of him. He's not really a fit as an X receiver. He doesn't play physical enough nor does he get enough consistent separation. But if he's asked to do a little less he could have an even larger impact.

Foster could benefit the most from a reliable and consistent slot guy like Beasley and a tag team partner like Brown, who can do some of the same things and take the focus off him when defenses are game planning to stop him. Foster has a lot of play on tape now and defensive coordinators are going to start paying him more attention. The influx of talent in the wide receiver room should benefit him and Jones.

 

 

in another article

https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-buffalo-bills-post-draft-breakdown-offense

By: Joe Buscaglia

 

Wide Receiver (13)
John Brown, Zay Jones, Cole Beasley, Robert Foster, Andre Roberts, Isaiah McKenzie, Victor Bolden Jr., Da'Mari Scott, Ray-Ray McCloud, Cam Phillips, Duke Williams, David Sills V, Nick Easley

 

Biggest Question: Will Zay Jones and/or Robert Foster prevent the Bills from taking a big swing at WR in 2020?
- Now that the wide receiver room is defined and without another young rookie to move some pieces around, the center of attention becomes the two young players that showed some promise late in 2018: Zay Jones and Robert Foster.

 

The upcoming season is a prove-it campaign for both players, especially if they want to continue having a substantial role on the Bills' offense in 2020 and beyond. For Jones, separating from defenders has been his biggest hurdle, but once he started to sell his routes at the point of his breakdown completely, he's enjoyed more success. The excuses for Jones are no longer allowable. He has to prove to be a consistent performer every week, or else the Bills will have to think about making a sizable move in the 2020 offseason. The same goes for Robert Foster, who has to prove that he can not only run the entire route tree but that his work habits and consistency remain constant all year. Just as you must account for the last month of his season, the same must be done for the first half of the season when Foster was getting outworked in practice, lost trust in his hands and lost his place on the roster as a result. As a second-year player with a possible reduced role on paper, Foster must continue to prove he's an ascending player to be a significant factor for the long-term in Buffalo.

 

Actually they are.  As a raw rookie no less. 

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